Mock Draft: Points Based System

Average Draft Position data is all the rage at this time of year as everyone is scouring drafts to see how others evaluate players. However, the overwhelming majority of that ADP data is derived from standard 5×5 scoring formats. What about those points based leagues that seem to be growing in popularity? Today, I’ll relay how a recent draft in this setup went for me (special thanks goes out to SportsIllustrated.com which asked me to participate in the mock draft. For those of you who aren’t aware, I write a weekly mailbag piece for SI.com that appears on Wednesday’s, and I also write a Monday column for them about fantasy hockey for those of you who are fans of the ice).

League Setup

The league is a 12 teamer, though in a bit of a change there is only one starting catcher, three outfielders, no corner and middle infielders, and there are set spots for the pitchers.

Hitters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitchers: SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP
Bench: Five spots
Rosters set once weekly.

Despite that, what really sets this league apart from others is the scoring system. This league is a points based setup with the following parameters.

OFFENSE

* Single (1 pt), double (2 pts), triple (3 pts) homer (4 pts)
* The following all net one point: walk, HBP, run, RBI
* You get two points for a stolen base.
* If you are caught stealing it’s a (-1), and strikeouts are (-0.5).

PITCHING

* 7 points for win or save.
* 3 points for a quality start or inning pitched
* 0.5 points for a strikeout.
* (-1) point for a walk, earned run, hit allowed, hit batter.
* (-5) points for a loss.

Given this scoring setup starting pitchers that win games and pitch a lot of innings are worth a ton, and that explains why 10 starting pitchers were drafted in the first 34 picks and 14 in the first 48 overall on the draft. This points out what I always talk about – you have to know the scoring system and positional setup of your league when you attempt to evaluate players. In addition to the fact that pitchers went early, catchers went late. Why would you dive in early on catchers if you only need to start one? Moreover, speedsters like Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn have a ton of value in 4×4 and 5×5 leagues, but in this setup 50 steals only nets you as many points as 25 homers (100 each). Actually, that isn’t true. Don’t forget you are awarded a point for runs and RBI which means that 25 homers actually equals 150 points (100 for homers, 25 for runs, 25 for RBI). Of course, that doesn’t count the other runners the batter might knock in on the homer. That’s why I was able to grab Pierre in the 20th round at the 230th pick even though his 5×5 ADP is something like 135 – the scoring system simply dictated that Pierre wasn’t as valuable in this league.

My Team

C: Kurt Suzuki (12th round)
1B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
2B: Chase Utley (2)
3B: Casey McGehee (11)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (6)
OF: Matt Holliday (3), Shane Victorino (8), Hunter Pence (9)
UT: Howie Kendrick (18)
SP: Dan Haren (4), Tommy Hanson (5), Chad Billingsley (7), Ryan Dempster (10), Ricky Nolasco (14)
RP: Jonathan Broxton (13), Matt Thornton (15)
Bench: James Shields (16), Joel Hanrahan (17), Gavin Floyd (19), Juan Pierre (20), Jhonny Peralta (21)

Some general thoughts.

* Jhonny Peralta isn’t exciting, but given the shallow bench in this league his 3B/SS eligibility is a big factor.

* My relievers are highly skilled but uncertain to rack up saves. That’s what happens when you draft this early, you just aren’t sure about roles. However, as you know from How to Evaluate Relievers piece I like to target skills over roles anyway. Also, I almost grabbed Brian Duensing as my last pitcher. Why? Because in this league he qualifies as a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. Remember, check those rules (I went with Hanrahan because I truly believe he will close for Pirates and have a strong season).

* I really like the offense, except for third base. There’s nothing wrong with McGehee, but last season is as good as it gets, and I don’t know if there is anything more he can given in the HR or RBI columns. Still, he was the best option left at the time, and I don’t regret passing on Michael Young to add Dempster in this format.

* My starters are strong. Last season’s numbers, in this scoring format, would equal some big points totals for Haren (12 wins, 216 Ks, 235 IP), Hanson (10, 173, 202.2), Billingsley (12, 171, 191.2) and Dempster (15, 208, 215.1). Heck, even Shields was pretty solid in those three categories (13, 187, 203.1).

So there it is. Remember to check those rules and positional parameters when putting together your cheat sheet – certain setups can really alter the value of certain players.

FINAL NOTE: Here is a review of the entire draft which took place at CBS Sportsline.

By Ray Flowers

Anatomy of a Draft: Vegas Style

This is the final piece of my three part series reviewing the FSTA Draft that was held in Las Vegas last week (ah, how the good times fade fast don’t they?).

Part I - I gave a review of the team I drafted in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA.

PART II - I discussed why I chose Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo.

In PART III, thanks to the work of Jason Collette of Dock of the Rays, we have the answer as to who made the best selections in the FSTA Draft compared to the current ADP data (you can see the entirety of Jason’s work in the spreadsheet he put together of the draft). In what follows I’ll discuss some of the key selections that stood out, either players that I got on the cheap or guys I might have reached for according to ADP, and give my thoughts on why I made the decisions that I did.

Carl Crawford (taken 7th, ADP of 16): You can click in the link above for PART II to see why I think Crawford’s current ADP mark is way off.

Jimmy Rollins (taken 33, ADP of 42): The last of the elite shortstops on the board was my second choice with my third round pick with the first one being Ryan Howard (he was taken 32nd). For my thoughts on Rollins see Top-10 SS for 2011.

Brandon Phillips (59 taken , ADP of 35): A nice value given where he was drafted, and because he was the last of the top shelf second sackers left on the board. Coming off a “down” year he still scored 100 runs, hit 18 homers, stole 16 bags and batted .275. I’ll take a repeat of that while knowing that he went .276-20-98-78-25 in 2009.

Aramis Ramirez (taken 85, ADP of 104): Aramis is scaring some people off with his down 2010 effort that included a bunch of time on the shelf (he had just 465 at-bats). Would it surprise you to know that he still had 25 homers, the same total as Ryan Zimmerman and three more than Evan Longoria? Heck, his RBI total of 83 was only two less than Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds.

Dan Haren (taken 98, ADP of 52): The steal of the draft? I almost took Haren in the 6th round, then the 7th, before finally selecting him in the 8th. From 2008-10, Haren is only of only three hurlers to win at least 12 games, with an ERA under 3.95 and at least 200 Ks each season. The others are two pretty strong hurlers – Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Joakim Soria (taken 111, ADP of 78): Drafting at this point of the year is tricky, you don’t even know who the 9th inning arm will be for some clubs, and that was reflected in the draft as most of the experts waited on taking their first closer. I still remember being burned last year when I took Joe Nathan early “knowing” he was a lock for 35 saves. Hopefully this call works out better.

Aaron Hill (taken 124, ADP of 180): I needed power, so I’m not worried about having overshot Hill’s ADP by so much. With guys like Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick the best options left on the board at second, and already having a roster loaded with speedy guys, I needed pop and Hill was the best option left to fill that need. After all, Hill is second at the second base position the last two years with 62 homers and third with 176 RBI.

Carlos Lee (taken 163, ADP of 132): A solid choice for two reasons. First, he also qualifies at first base giving me some depth behind Prince Fielder and another option as a corner infielder. Second, while his bat is slowing, Lee still hit 24 homers with 89 RBI last season. That makes it 11-straight years with 24 homers and at least 80 RBI.

James Shields (taken 189, ADP of 173): He might have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA despite a career best K/9 mark of 8.28 and a superb K/BB ratio of 3.67. If things normalize he should be back on track and that means posting an ERA of about 4.00 with a 1.25 WHIP and about 175 Ks, a point I made, in depth, in Breaking Down: James Shields.

Scott Baker (taken 228, ADP of 183): He may never put it all together, but we’ve all have a crush on someone that doesn’t really make sense (I don’t even want to hear who some of you have fantasies about). Still, I can’t help but think if he ever put it all together that he could be a difference maker. If we take the best numbers of career and combine them we end up with 15 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 162 Ks.

Carlos Zambrano (taken 241, ADP of 331): I guess no one is buying his unbelievable finish to 2010 (8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 Ks over 74 IP)? There are valid concerns about his workload and his absolutely bonkers personality, but the guy can still pitch when he’s healthy and motivated.

Ryan Madson (taken 280, ADP of 400): One of the best right-handed setup men in baseball. Madson is second in line to take over the 9th inning in Philadelphia, and you can argue that he is coming off his best season with career bests in K/9 (10.87), BB/9 (2.21), K/BB (4.92) and WHIP (1.04). Now if he can just avoid trying to beat things up when he is angry.

Nate McLouth (taken 293, ADP of 400): The man gets no respect. The Braves say he will open the year as the starter in CF, he is just 29 years old, and he went 26/23 in 2008 and 20/19 in 2009. You can hear more of my thoughts on McLouth in Around the Horn: January 21, 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought

I’m going wild about pitching today as I point out a few pitchers who actually pitched better than you may have thought they did during the just completed 2010 season.

Scott Baker had elbow surgery this fall, but he should be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training. Should you care after he posted a 4.49 ERA for the Twins in 2010? Heck yes you should. Baker had a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best, and though he also posted a 5-year high with a 2.27 BB/9 mark, his K/BB mark was still 3.44. Toss in 148 Ks, and Baker was one of just eight pitchers – eight – in all of baseball to have a 7.80 K/9, 3.40 K/BB, 145 or more K’s and a walk rate under 2.30 per nine. Look at the others on the list: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The eighth guy? He is another hurler I would look to buy low on in 2011, and that is James Shields. There is no way that Shields should once again lead the AL in homers allowed (34), and he certainly won’t allow another BABIP mark of .354, especially considering his career mark is just .316. You also have to factor in that Shields posted a K/9 rate of about a batter better than his career mark of 7.38 at 8.28. Guys with K/9 rates that high who also post a 3.67 K/BB mark just don’t post ERA’s over five very often (Shields was at 5.18). In fact, over the past 11 years, Shields season is one of only two by a hurler with at least an 8.20 K/9 mark, a 3.65 K/BB ratio an an ERA over 5.00. The other season like that was authored by Ricky Nolasco in 2009.

Chris Narveson just barely posted an ERA in the four’s at 4.99 over 37 appearances, including 28 starts. How in the world could he have pitched better than that number looks? Well, things clearly took a turn for the better in the second half of the year as everything simply clicked for Chris. Over his last 14 appearances, all starts, Narveson was 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That’s some seriously strong pitching. He also posted a decent 2.75 K/BB ratio as batters hit just .231 off him over those 81 innings. He’s no ace, but once the draft hits the late rounds next year, don’t forget about this Brewers’ starter.

A.J. Burnett. There, I said it, and now people are running for the exits right? Hear me out before you go pulling the alarm lever.

Burnett was terrible late in the year (3-8, 5.95 ERA over his last 15 starts), but his overall performance, other than a rather precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (6.99 in 2010, 8.23 for his career), really wasn’t awful compared to his career levels. Burnett did lose a mph off his fastball, but he was still throwing it 93 mph, so there likely wasn’t an injury. Secondly, his walk rate was 3.76, which is almost spot on his career mark of 3.78. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a three year high, but that mark was 1.09 in 2009 and 1.25 in 2007, so it wasn’t that far off his recent performance. His BABIP of .319 was a bit above his career .297 rate, but it was lower than the .328 mark he posted in 2008. His GB/FB ratio was a bit down at 1.20 (career 1.49), but it was better than his ’09 mark (1.09). And for goodness sakes, his line drive rate was a 3-year low (17.6 percent) and the second best mark in six years. Burnett will be an afterthought on draft day 2011, and I’m telling you, he has a chance to produce a nice return on investment if the cost is low enough.

By Ray Flowers

By The Numbers

With the World Series barely 24 hours away, I thought I would take a step back and look at some of the numbers that popped out at me when looking at the regular season performance of the men on the diamond.

Daric Barton led the AL with 110 walks, 10 more than the only other fella in the Junior Circuit (Jose Bautista was the other with an even 100 walks). Miguel Cabrera was the only one of the top-5 AL walk getters who whiffed less than 100 times with 95 punchouts on the year. Over in the NL, Albert Pujols walked 103 times, a third straight year of triple-digit walks for the Cardinals’ star. Pujols career worst for Ks is 93, and that was back during his rookie season (2001) though it should be pointed out that for the first time in nine years he struck out more than 70-times with 76 punchouts in 2010.

Adrian Beltre posted a .919 OPS, the best amongst full-time third basemen in baseball this season (Jose Bautista was at .995), and it was the second best mark of his career behind the historic 1.017 mark he posted in 2004. For some historical perspective, the 1.017 mark of Beltre is the the 17th best mark in baseball history for a third basemen.

Did you know that Rodrigo Lopez led baseball with 37 homers allowed? That’s the same total as Roy Oswalt (19) and Tim Lincecum (18) allowed. The AL leader was James Shields and he allowed 34 while twirling on the hill for the Rays. His total was matched by the combined efforts of Felix Hernandez (17) and Dallas Braden (17).

Gio Gonzalez won 15 games which is one more than Francisco Liriano and two more than Felix Hernandez. Those 15 wins also tied Gio for the third most by a lefty in baseball with John Danks, Brett Cecil and C.J. Wilson. The only three lefties with more victories were CC Sabathia (21), David Price (19) and Jon Lester (19).

Josh Hamilton hit .359 with 32 homers and 100 RBI this season. Those three numbers made him just the eighth man in American league history to reach all three of those Triple-Crown marks in the same season. Here are the others: Babe Ruth (seven times), Lou Gehrig (three), Al Simmons (twice), Jimmie Foxx (twice) and then Ted Williams, Norm Cash and Joe DiMaggio all accomplished the feat once.

Shaun Marcum had a wonderful bounce back season after undergoing Tommy John surgery as he posted a 3.64 ERA and 13 victories in 31 starts covering 195.1 innings. However, it’s his WHIP that really stands out as he posted a 1.15 mark, this after a 1.16 mark in 2008. As great as Jon Lester has been the past two years (34 wins, 450 Ks), he has posted WHIP’s of 1.23 and 1.20. How is that for some perspective on how good Marcum has been his last two seasons?

Nick Markakis had hit at least 16 homers in each of his first four seasons before falling well off the map this year with just 12 big flies for the Orioles. Still, he posted a 4th straight season of at least 40-doubles, he hit 45, and that is ties him for the third longest 40-double streak in big league history (the record is jointly held by Joe Medwick and Wade Boggs at 7-straight). If we up the double mark to 43 a season, a total that Markakis has reached each of the past four years, he moves up to second on the list trailing only Joe Medwick’s 5-year run (Tris Speaker also hit 43 doubles in 4-straight years).

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Part II

For the second straight year, I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL. Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be me). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the ninth pick in the draft which was completed near the start of March).

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD – Part I.

ROUND 11: Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Maybe the extra 20 lbs will allow him to drive the ball deep again. He wasn’t as bad as it looked last year, and is still a top-7 option in my mind – or at least he was until he was injured (this pick was made before his ill health hit). Martin is progressing well and may not miss more than a handful of games to start the year.

ROUND 12: James Shields, SP, Rays
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Shields was the last, reliable, top shelf option left on my draft board amongst starting pitchers, so I’m very comfortable with him as my third starter.

ROUND 13: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Brewers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Safe, old and boring, all Hoffman does is rack up 30-saves year after year. In each of his last 14 healthy seasons he has hit that level, so there is no reason to think he will produce anything less this season.

ROUND 14: Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The most skilled starting pitcher left on my board or a middling OF? I decided to roster a fourth solid starter since no one stood out in the outfield.

ROUND 15: Ryan Ludwick
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Immediately after making the pick, I slightly regretted it. Not because Ludwick will fail in 2010, he’ll hit behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the center of a powerful Cardinals’ lineup, but because Mike Gonzalez was taken with the next pick and I need save help.

ROUND 16: Rafael Furcal
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
A risk since he stopped running last season. Still he is a decent starting option at short, and he will allow me to use Tejada at third base once the season gets underway.

ROUND 17: Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
What, you think he won’t rebound in 2010? I’m not sure either, but I had only one reliever at this point so I had to take a chance that his elbow and knee will be healthy enough for him to return to a high level of effectiveness if his BABIP returns to normal.

ROUND 18: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I agonized a bit here, but at this point a 25+HR, 90+RBI guy isn’t all that bad, and I needed the pop based on the rest of my lineup.

ROUND 19: Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The results weren’t there last season for Harang, but he isn’t that far off his 2006-07 form that he should be getting this little respect. He’s a great 5th starter for my club.

ROUND 20: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
As talented as any reliever left on the board, he is my handcuff in case Lidge isn’t ready to go because I only had two closers at this point of the draft in Lidge and Hoffman.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Starting Pitchers

The following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. This list represents my top-10 starting pitchers heading into the ’09 campaign. Let this list be reason number 1,976 as to why it makes little sense to draft a starting pitcher early as they are just so volatile. What do I mean? Take a look at the list. The top guy made his fewest starts since 2002. The #5 guy was a huge disappointment. #6? He made all of one start, and #7 pitched his fewest innings since his rookie year in 2002. And it’s not like I chose crazy hurlers for my list. Of the nine Fanball employees who ranked the top-10′s at each position, here is the total of how many times each of those injured pitchers were mentioned.

Johan Santana – nine
Brandon Webb – nine
Jake Peavy – eight

Just goes to show you that taking hitters early in drafts is likely the safer play. Now on to a review of my list.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. CC Sabathia

4. Roy Halladay

5. Cole Hamels

6. Brandon Webb

7. Jake Peavy

8. Dan Haren

9. James Shields

10. Felix Hernandez

Santana won 13 games with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP though he did toss only 166.2 innings his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003. Reports are that his arm should be 100 percent by opening day 2010.

Lincecum actually improved in his second full season winning his second straight Cy Young. He lowered his ERA by 0.14 down to 2.48, his WHIP by 0.12 (down to 1.05), and held batters to an anemic .206 BAA, .015 points below his ’08 mark. The best thing going – end of story.

Sabathia had a terrific first season in pinstripes giving the Yankees exactly what they paid for. He won 19 games, struck out 197, posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while eating up 230 innings. A free agent signing who delivered handsomely.

Halladay continues to be a throwback to years gone by. He tossed nine complete games, produced four shutouts, twirled 239 innings and along the way won 17 games for a poor team. He also posted a sub 2.80 ERA for a second straight year, an unheard of occurrence in the AL in this age of offense.

Hamels was terrible if you look only at the results (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, a deeper look at the numbers says that he was extremely unlucky (a .325 BABIP can be blamed – it was .289 and .270 the previous two years), and therefore he should rebound in 2010.

Webb made that one start and his year was over with a wonky shoulder that required surgery. He is back in the desert on an option year deal with the D’backs in his attempt to reassert himself as a top flight option after 5-straight years over 200-innings.

Peavy finally was moved from San Diego to the White Sox, but his year was marred by an ankle injury and later some issues with his elbow that limited him to a mere 16 starts. He posted 110 Ks and a 1.12 WHIP in 101.2 innings but will likely find success harder to come by in a hitters’ yard in Chicago.

Haren was spectacular at the start of the year (9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP prior to the All-Star game) before pulling his now annual second half fade (5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Still, no one in the game was disappointed with his final numbers: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings.

Shields had his worst season in three years seeing his sub four ERA rise to 4.14 while having his WHIP rise to 1.32 (it had been under 1.16 the previous two seasons). Still, he lasted more than 215 innings for a third straight year though he’ll need to reign in the free passes a bit to return to his previous levels.

Hernandez, in retrospect, should have been higher on my list, though I can’t give myself too much grief as I was the only one of the nine staffers who had him ranked in the top-10. All he did was go 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP. Not a bad season for a guy who doesn’t turn 24 until April 2010.

By Ray Flowers