Draft Day Challenge, May 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

NOTE: There are only four night games tonight, so I’m going to change up the format a bit since there just isn’t the volume of players we’re used to seeing most days.

ORIOLES vs. BLUE JAYS

Adam Jones has killed Morrow hitting .387 with three homers and 10 RBIs in 31 ABs.
Nick Markakis is hitting .280 in 25 at-bats.
Chris Davis is hitting .143 with 8 Ks in 14 at-bats.
Matt Wieters is awful at 2-for-18 (.111).
Manny Machado is 1-for-7.

TWINS vs. TIGERS

Miguel Cabrera murders Diamond: .500 in 16 at-bats.
Everyone else struggles against Diamond:
Jhonny Peralta (.200 in 15 at-bats)
Torii Hunter (.167 in 6 at-bats)
Prince Fielder (.091 in 11 at-bats)
Victor Martinez (.125 in 8 at-bats)

Josh Willingham clubs Porcello hitting .600-1-4 in 10 at-bats.
Ryan Doumit also has success (4-for-10).
Justin Morneau is at .231 with one HR in 26 at-bats.
Joe Mauer is hitting .259 with a .333 OBP (27 at-bats).

INDIANS vs. RED SOX

No Red Sox player has 10 at-bats against McAllister making matchup talk difficult.
Mike Carp and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are the only two with a homer.
Carp and Dustin Pedroia are the only two with two RBIs.

Michael Bourn has stolen two bases while hitting .313 against Dempster (32 ABs).
Mark Reynolds has three hits in 14 at-bats.
Drew Stubbs is a mess going 4-for-21 with 7 Ks.

ANGELS vs. ROYALS

Billy Butler is 3-for-3 against Blanton.
Jeff Francoeur has six hits and four RBIs leading to a .429 average.
Alberto Callaspo has gone 4-for-9 against Santana.
Josh Hamilton has seen Santana 37 times hitting .270-2-8.
Albert Pujols is 0-for-2 in his career.

STARTING PITCHERS
(First pitcher listed is on the road, second is at home)

Scott Diamond vs. DET
Rick Porcello vs. MIN

Diamond (.208 and .557 in 106 ABs) has had success against the Tigers, and that really doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense, in his six starts. He’s allowed 12 runs and four homers in his last two starts and is sporting a 1.44 WHIP and just 16 Ks in 39.2 innings this season. Terrible.

Porcello (.318 and .917 in 132 ABs) has a 5.92 ERA this season, but he’s dropped that mark three runs in his last three starts as he’s allowed a total of six runs. That 3.35 ERA in 91.1 innings agianst Minnesota is solid, but that 1.46 WHIP and just 46 strikeouts certainly leads to some trepidation.

Kevin Gausman vs. TOR
Brandon Morrow vs. BAL

For more on Gausman and my thoughts on what he brings to the table check out The Future Is Now.

Morrow (.259 and .861 in 166 ABs) has posted a 1.19 WHIP vs. the Orioles despite some less than scintillating career work against the club. On the year he continues to scuffle along with a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, though at least that ERA number is a bit better at home this year at 4.07.

Zach McAllister vs. BOS
Ryan Dempster vs. CLE

McAllister (.254 and .847 in 59 ABs) has impressively struck out batters in 20 of those 59 at-bats versus the Red Sox. In eight starts this year he’s yet to allow more than three runs in an outing though he’s allowed six homers in his last six starts and hasn’t exactly love pitching on the road (3.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three starts).

Dempster (.255 and .765 in 102 ABs) started hot this year before being obliterated for 11 runs, three homers and seven walks in his last two starts. He’s been solid at home this year with a 1.05 WHIP and 49 Ks in 37 IP.

Joe Blanton vs KC
Ervin Santana vs LAA

Blanton (.406 and 1.016 in 64 ABs) is pitching for his spot in the rotation with Jered Weaver close to returning. Despite the numbers he’s posted against current Royals he has had some success against the organization over the years (2.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over seven starts). Still, 11 ER’s and 23 hits over his last nine innings tell you all you really need to know.

Santana (.242 and .726 in 62 ABs) has been nails all season long allowing 0, 1 or 2 ER in five of eight starts. He’s got a 1.84 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four starts at home and the Angels are the middle of the pack at 8th in runs scored.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when we get to the next section. For now, all you need to know is that I was in a league with 11 other fellow Fanball employees in a 12 team mixed league.

Matt Wieters and Kurt Suzuki, the same tale as every league. One strong catcher and one Kurt Suzuki. On Kurt, my pathetic muse…

Mark Reynolds – sensing a theme here? Yes, I had Reynolds on all my clubs, and yes, he underperformed.

Robinson Cano was nails this year, an MVP candidate thanks to his extraordinary efforts that included a .313 average, a career best 33 homers, 94 RBIs and a career best 105 runs, a 4th straight effort of triple digits.

David Wright wasn’t at his best, but he was very, very good (.306-21-93-91-15). So much for his bat being washed up.

Ian Desmond come on down. What an excellent season (.292-25-73-72-21) for a cheap draft day add (18th round). Amazing.

Ben Zobrist did it all – yet again (.270-20-74-88-14), and he now qualifies at shortstop too. Martin Prado (.301-10-70-81-17) was a wonderful corner infield option who played all over the field like Zobrist. A great MI/CI duo. Oh, and I had Daniel Murphy (.291-6-65-62-10) in reserve at both spots.

A solid outfield, but not extremely deep. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler did it all (as did Zobrist). Vernon Wells – yet another disappointing season. I should have known better.

Chris Davis went deep 33 times with 85 RBIs. It happened.

James Shields, Jered Weaver and Max Scherzer anchored this impressive staff. Brandon Morrow would have given me a dynamic foursome if he hadn’t missed two months with injury. Beyond those four, a cast of my “normal” characters – Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano. None of them panned out.

My bullpen, as in so many leagues this year, was nails thanks to Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo for that.

CONGRATS: David Honecker.

FINAL RESULT: 2/12. So close.

THE DRIVE SHOW LEAGUE

Each year on The Drive, my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Show (Sirius 210, XM 87, M-Th 7 PM EDT, Friday 9 PM EDT), we do a league with the listeners and producers of our show. Here is how the season went.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his 25 homers were nice, but Kurt Suzuki and his six weren’t. Boy did I miss on Suzuki.

Adam Dunn blasted tons of homers (41) and produced runs (96 RBIs, 87 runs scored). Too bad he hit .204.

Ian Kinsler was a steal from 20/20.

Derek Jeter… like on every other team I had, was great.

Mike Aviles was a solid MI/CI option (.250-13-60-57-14).

My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.

Ryan Braun was a superstar (.319-41-112-108-30).

Matt Holliday was pretty darn good (.295-27-102-95).

Desmond Jennings had a solid season (13 HRs, 85 runs, 31 steals). I parlayed him into Andrew McCutchen early in the year. Yeah, that worked out well.

B.J. Upton was two homers from a 30/30 season.
Alex Rios was two steals from 25/25
Carl Crawford. Shame on me.

Braun-Holliday-McCutchen-Upton-Rios = the best outfield ever assembled. Ever.

Matt Cain dominated.
Matt Moore wasn’t as good, but he still had 175 Ks.
Tommy Hanson wasn’t even league average. Ditto Josh Beckett.
Ryan Dempster was solid (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Tyler Clippard turned in 32 saves.
Huston Street was dynamic when on the hill (1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 23/24 on saves).
Sergio Romo, dominating again.
Brett Myers racked up 19 saves before he was dealt to the White Sox.
Brian Wilson blew out his arm.
Scott Baker blew out his arm.

How did I save this staff? The additions of Chris Capuano (12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 Ks) certainly helped. Jarrod Parker also was on the club to add depth (13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks).

CONGRATS: To Me. Finally.

FINAL RESULT: 1/12.

By Ray Flowers

Behind the Dish

photo © 2011 Adam Jackson | more info (via: Wylio)

Buster Posey was creamed last night at the plate in a collision with Scott Cousins. Was it a dirty play? I don’t believe so, but that’s a discussion for another day. The issue at this point is what do you do if you own Posey because a report from Amy Guttierrez says that Buster Posey is in a cast (the team has already placed him on the DL with a broken leg, and unconfirmed reports are circulating that he also has injured ligaments in his leg)? Whatever the truth turns out to be, it’s pretty clear that in a best case scenario Posey is going to be out for the foreseeable future – at best.

This situation will send all Posey owners scrambling to the waiver-wire. Of the options available, who might you consider picking up? Here are some thoughts.

Ryan Doumit – .272-4-15-7-0 in 92 ABs
Who doesn’t wish that the Pirates would play him more frequently, even if it isn’t behind the dish. I mean, it’s not like Lyle Overbay is tearing it up at first base is it? He isn’t for those of you wonder as he’s hitting .235 with a .662 OPS. Doumit has flashed his power bat in May hitting .289/.351/.477. The best thing for him could be a deal to a team that would play him everyday. Until then, at a weak hitting position, he still is someone you need to consider.

Ryan Hanigan – .261-2-12-12-0 in 92 ABs
He isn’t close to an everyday option, not with Ramon Hernandez around (.327-6-15), but it might surprise you to learn that Hernandez only has 12 more at-bats than Hanigan. Why would I suggest adding a guy who is hitting .261 with a .359 SLG? Because there is no downside here. Hanigan never strikes out, in his career he’s walked more times than he’s whiffed, and that means there is virtually no chance that his average will fall below where it is right now (career .276). You could do a lot worse as a second catcher in mixed leagues, but he would be stretched as a starter if you only use one backstop.

Jonathan Lucroy – .321-5-22-15-0 in 112 ABs
The name everyone is interested in, and why wouldn’t you be given his work to this point? Be warned though. Unless your name is Joe Mauer or Mike Piazza, catchers don’t hit over .320. Second, though he looks to have a huge a power bat, Lucroy has a 48 percent ground ball rate that will keep the big flies in check. The only reason he has five bombs already is due to an unsustainable 17 percent HR/F rate. He’s probably already snatched up unless you are in a shallow league, but if he isn’t, give him a look – there’s likely to be plenty of production from this bat.

Miguel Olivo – .229-4-15-20-4 in 144 ABs
He’s not hitting very well, but what’s new if you are a Seattle Mariner? However, three things of note. (1) He  has four steals, a huge boost at a position where guys don’t run. (2) He plays everyday. His total of 144 at-bats is 10th at the position (3) Each of the last five years he has hit at least 12 homers with 41 RBI. Those seem like mild totals but only he and Brian McCann can say that they have reached both totals each of the last five years.

Mike Napoli – .185-6-16-15-1 in 92 ABs
I blame this one on the Rangers. When Napoli was hot to start the year the Rangers just kept sitting him on the bench. Despite their thoughts, what I see is the seeds of success. Napoli currently has the best walk rate of his career, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his 18.2 HR/F ratio is a dead on match for his 18.1 percent career mark. One this hits start falling, his BABIP is .172, only .114 points below his career mark, he’ll return to being a power hitting star at the position… that is if the Rangers ever play him.

Wilson Ramos – .255-3-11-18-0 in 110 ABs
As great as he was in April (.358) he has been as bad in May (.158). He has value, but it may only be in certain spots right now. Consider these two points. (1) You only want to play him at home where he has hit .349 with a .990 OPS (his marks on the road are .194 and .605). (2) He has killed lefties (.323/.462/.484) while struggling badly against righties (.228/.284/.392).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .240-4-15-11-0 in 100 ABs
Salty, and no, I’m not going to type out his name again, has been a blasting of late with four bombs and seven RBI in his last five games. Long thought of as a guy who could hit .250 with 20 homers, is he finally reaching his potential after years of false starts?

Kurt Suzuki – .252-4-13-17-1 in 155 ABs
I cant understand how, after three solid years, that this guy is on so many waiver-wires. He’s currently working on his best BB/K mark of 0.82 (career 0.61), and though his has a superb 22.5 percent line drive rate he has only been rewarded with a .261 BABIP that isn’t even the equal of his career rate of .276. I see lots of room for improvement here.

My rest of the way rankings of these catchers:

Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Olivo
Ryan Doumit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Wilson Ramos
Ryan Hanigan

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May13, 2010

(1) Mat Latos pitches 1-hitter against the Giants.

(2) Bud Norris continues to dominate the Cardinals.

(3) Hunter Pence finally hitting for Astros.

(4) Brad Lidge’s elbow checks out OK.

(5) Orioles get more bad news in bullpen – Jim Johnson might need Tommy John surgery.

(6) Corey Patterson called up to replace Nolan Reimold.

(7) Jarrod Washburn to sit out 2010 season?

(8) Mark DeRosa’s wrist in bad shape – 2010 in jeopardy?

(9) Jarrod Saltalamacchia having big time throwing issues.

By Ray Flowers