Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

Some players get little respect. You know, they are the “glue” type players that you roster in the middle to late rounds that end up filling up the stat sheet rather nicely by the time that October rolls around even if no one really batted an eye when you called out their name at the draft table. One of those guys is Marco Scutaro. He’s never someone you target, and most of the time when you call out his name it’s merely because there really aren’t any better options out there, but there are certainly worse guys to target late as a middle infield option than the Rockies new second baseman.

Let me begin right where I just left off. Scutaro, who played just two games at second last season but has played regularly there during his big league career, will be the Rockies’ starting second baseman in 2012 (thanks Troy Tulowitzki). This is great news for Scutaro because he will be able to add second base to his shortstop qualification. When you’re thinking about grabbing a guy in the later rounds having positional flexibility like this is just another level of added value. You don’t have to take two players as a backup to your second baseman and shortstop, you can simply add a guy Scutaro to give you some depth.

Second, one of the keys with Scutaro is that he will be the Rockies new second baseman. Coors Field doesn’t play like it once did now that they humidor the hell out of the baseballs up there (some conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Rockies use a different set of “dead” baseball’s when the visiting team is at-bat), but at the same time it’s still a great place for a hitter to call home. Scutaro isn’t a home run hitter, his two best seasons are 11 and 12, but that misses the point. Scutaro is a strong extra base hitter who has rapped out 30 doubles in three seasons in his career while averaging 33 the past three years. The last three years Coors has been the best park in the NL for doubles, 22 percent greater than the league average park according to Park Indices. Scutaro should be hitting plenty of two baggers this season.

Scutaro has hit .270 for his career, an over his last three years he has hit at least .275 each time. He’s a good bet to keep that up in 2012, not just because of his home yard, but because of his approach. For his career Scutaro owns a 0.80 BB/K mark, well above the big league average of about 0.50, and the last time that number dipped below 0.75 for Scutaro was when George Bush Jr. was president (2004). He won’t damage your teams’ batting average and he has at least an even shot of actually helping in the category.

Since he became an every day player in 2008, Scutaro has been a solid performer. Even including his effort last season in which he was only able to accrue 395 at-bats, here is what an average 5×5 season has looked like for Scutaro since 2008: .280-9-58-82-8. Again, that’s nothing special, but those are replacement level stuff that you can get on the cheap at the draft table. Would you rather roster guys like Zack Cozart or Jason Bartlett late? I know I wouldn’t.

Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out, but I wouldn’t be drafting Scutaro to win me a league. I’d be drafting Scutaro as a player who, given 500 at-bats, is going to be a great return on my investment. He’ll qualify at both middle infield spots, likely hit at least .280, score a bunch of runs, and knock in enough to be worthy of strong consideration in deep mixed leagues as a middle infielder. Don’t forget about the little fella when your draft moves into the 20′s – Scutaro is someone you can fill your roster out with on the cheap who will end up providing you more than passable numbers if he can stay healthy.

Click here to get your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Which players, who have stunk so far, could be in line for a strong second half? It’s a question I get all the time. So I’m going to spend some time in my next few articles talking about which players you should BUY for the second half. Today, the infield.

CATCHER
Kurt Suzuki: .225-7-22-25-2 in 275 ABs

Two things here. First, Suzuki has been pretty bad, so he’ll be cheap to acquire. Second, the guy plays almost every day, so even if he isn’t that talented a hitter his counting stats figure to be solid because he rarely sits. A full time player for three years, Suzuki is currently on pace for four year lows in homers, RBI, runs, average, OBP and SLG. At the same time his BB/K is the same as always and he’s actually operating at the second best line drive rate of his career at 19.2 percent. History says his BABIP should rise, it’s .272 for his career and with a 19.2 percent line drive rate his mark shouldn’t be a sickly .235. When it does, that average should creep upwards providing even more value.

FIRST BASE
Carlos Lee: .268-7-48-35-3 in 339 ABs
Lee is a solid veteran type that you could target to acquire on the cheap since his current owner would probably deal him for relatively little. History says power is coming, he’s hit at least 24 homers each year since 2000, and every one of his 12 seasons he’s had at least 80 RBI. I wouldn’t expect him to go homer crazy in the second half, but he’s never finished a season with a HR/F mark below 9.5 percent so it would stand to reason that his 5.1 percent mark would improve moving forward.

SECOND BASE
Dan Uggla: .185-15-34-43-1 in 340 ABs
Obviously you want to add Uggla, right? Well not according to some people. I will freely admit that a guy who is hitting .185 with an OBP (.257) that would be a poor batting average is a disaster. At the same time, his power is finally starting to show, and that should remain a constant moving forward. Don’t overlook the fact that, despite being an  absolute dead weight to a club in the average and steals categories, that Uggla is fourth at the second base position in homers, has as many RBI as Ian Kinsler and has scored more runs than Michael Young (42).

THIRD BASE
Chone Figgins: .183-1-14-21-9 in 262 ABs
What a disaster this position has been. David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria, the top-4 at the position coming into the year, have all missed extensive time with injury. It just gets worse from there as well as seemingly every player at the position has something wrong with them. As such, there really isn’t much to mine at the third base spot since most leagues have all these guys already rostered, so coming up with a name that you could buy on the cheap to help out was pretty difficult. I went off the board and listed Figgins who is almost certain to be dealt. If he is, there’s still a chance that he could be a productive performer in the second half – he can’t possibly have fallen this far so quickly, and he’s likely on waivers in your mixed league so you can pick him up for nothing.

SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett: .238-1-21-32-18 in 323 at-bats

Bartlett has maintained some value by swiping bags, but overall his work has been awful. Despite a career norm in BB/K (0.51), and what would be the second best line drive rate of his career (23 percent), Bartlett is undershooting his career average by .038 points partly because his BABIP is .280, a mark that is .037 points below his career level. If he were to maintain his current rate, he’d also post a six year low in the category. He has no power, and won’t drive in any runs, but he certainly seems like a strong candidate to boost his average, substantially, in the second half.

ALL-STAR GAME

Oh, and by the latest count it appears that 83 players have been named to the All-Star teams. That’s more than 10 percent of the players in the league. What a joke.

 By Ray Flowers

Zobrist on Fire – Lowe an Idiot

photo © 2009 Matt McGee | more info (via: Wylio)

Ben Zobrist had a day for the ages on Thursday. In Game 1 of a doubleheader with the Twins, Zobrist pounded out four hits including a homer and eight RBI (that’s not a typo). He also tossed in two runs and a steal for good measure. In the second game he only had three hits and didn’t steal a bag, but he did hit a homer, drive in two runs and score three times. Twp games netted Zobrist two bombs, 10 RBI, five runs and a steal and all of a sudden he looks like a star. Moreover, Big Ben, and that’s his new name in these parts, has knocked in at least two runs in five straight games and now leads baseball with 25 RBI in 25 games. Wasn’t it just a week ago that many of you, and you know who you are, were sending me emails and tweets about dropping this guy? Remember what I said? Hopefully you listened and held on.

I pointed this out before, though I know that no one listened to me at the time (in fact, I remember specifically sneers and derision followed my comments). I mentioned this preseason that I had no idea why Rickie Weeks was being taken in drafts 80 picks ahead of Zobrist. I even went as far as to compare the two directly to one another and suggest that Zobrist would likely be the better value play. How could I make such a statement? Per 500 at-bats over the past three years (2008-2010) there was really no difference between the two.

Weeks: .256-20-60-90-13
Zobrist: .265-20-79-81-18

Again, at the time I was called a fool by many. Now you know me and my sample size argument that I always throw out there, so I’m not going to sit here and say “I was right’ after just a month of games. I will say though that my side of the argument looks pretty good right about now, doesn’t it?

Weeks: .309-6-10-21-2
Zobrist: .258-7-25-18-4

If you look at the shortstop position you will see that Asdrubal Cabrera leads all AL shortstops in runs batted in with 15 and that he is second in the league in runs scored at the position with 14. Somehow, that hot start has caused everyone to think that he is going to be a fantasy star this year. Folks, it ain’t gonna happen. Over his last 11 games he has one RBI and it’s been 14 games since he hit a homer. Let me break it down for you all in case you were wondering – Cabrera really isn’t anything more than an average option in mixed leagues despite the hot start. Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s produced a fantasy line of .283-7-60-70-9. While that’s certainly a passable line for a middle infielder, it’s not much different than what a guy like Jason Bartlett has produced over his career (.279-6-48-71-20). Don’t be swayed too heavily by the hot start.

Derek Lowe received a DUI last night. According to the police report he was not only intoxicated but he was also racing his 2011 Porsche Panamera – a really nondescript car to be speeding in. Tell me, do you drive home drunk? OK, maybe you drive home after you’ve had a few drinks, but aren’t you extra careful to do nothing to gain anyone’s attention? You make sure to stop, you probably drive on the backstreets, and you certainly don’t act like Jimmie Johnson racing down the street, do you? That misses the real point though. According to BaseballReference.com Derek Lowe has made more than $80 million dollars during his career. For goodness sakes Derek, hire a flipping driver. I’ve never understood why pro athletes, who can burn money in the fireplace for heat, don’t pay some guy $150,000 to drive them everywhere. Make the guy sign a non-disclosure agreement so he won’t talk about all the elicit things he sees and just be done with it. Morons. Maybe @Dwade had it right on Twitter when he wrote “… in Lowe’s defense, it’s really hard to convince the limo driver to drag race.”

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART II

Yesterday in K-BAD 2011: PART I I laid out the parameters of one of the experts leagues I’m participating in this year. In addition to giving the lay of the land, I also ran through my first 10 selections. Today, I’ll continue to run through my team focusing on picks 11-20.

Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

For a review of the whole draft see the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

Round 11-8: Juan Pierre, OF, White Sox
I went for the value pick, even though that wasn’t at all my plan. I didn’t really need the steals, but this choice should allow me to finish at, or near the top in the category barring injury. Maybe Pierre’s solid average in a ton of at-bats can also help to offset the poor marks of Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

Round 12-5: Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers
I wanted to take Pablo Sandoval in the 10th and 11th rounds, and told myself I would take him here if he was still available. He was, but I went with the consistency of Chad Billingsley instead. You know I’m playing to win when I take a Dodger over a Giant.

Round 13-8: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
I already have two second base eligible players, but Zobrist can play OF so it’s not an issue. Kendrick fills my need for batting average help as well – something I need with Dunn/Reynolds (a situation I also tried to address with the selection of Pierre that I mentioned above).

Round 14-5: Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Astros
Amazingly consistent with 11-straight years of 24 homers, 80 RBI, Lee’s multi position eligibility (OF/1B) led me to calling out his name even though I still need a catcher. Hopefully I’ll be able to address my backstop with my next selection.

Round 15-8: Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
I considered taking a catcher in the 13th and 14th rounds before finally pulling the trigger. I’d have preferred Carlos Ruiz taken one pick before me, but Molina is a solid option and honestly, there is nothing more than a hair’s difference between the two this season.

Round 16-5: Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins
Everyone has gone closer crazy the last couple of rounds leaving this potential top-25 starting option on the board. If he could ever put everything together, he could be top-15 starter. You can read more about my thoughts on Nolasco in Hot Stove: Holliday Dealings.

Round 17-8: Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates
I don’t know if he will close or not (I think he will), but the arm is live and over his last 33 appearances he had a 13.50 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB. NOTE: It was announced two days after I  made this pick that Hanrahan would indeed open the year as the team’s closer. For more on why I thought Hanrahan was a great reliever to target make sure to read Radiant Relievers.

Round 18-5: Scott Baker, SP, Twins
I agonized over this pick, not because I don’t like Baker, but because of trying to figure out how I would fill out my catcher and shortstop position if I took him. It’s one of the problems with “slow drafts” – you have too much time to ponder your choices.

Round 19-8: Jason Bartlett, SS, Padres
I don’t love this pick, but I think Bartlett was the best SS left on the board and he’s the guy I’ve been targeting since I made the choice to pass on SS earlier. I’ve written this before, but I really don’t think, at the end of the day, that there will be much difference between Starlin Castro, who was taken in the 14th round in this draft, and Bartlett in terms of fantasy production in 2011.

Round 20-5: Leo Nunez, RP, Marlins
This is the type of guy you end up having to take a chance on when you don’t roster the top flight closers. I feel good enough about my offense to roster the risk. If he hadn’t struggled at the end of the year, he likely would have been taken at least five rounds earlier. After all, Nunez had a 9.83 K/9 mark, a 3.38 K/BB ratio and a strong 1.79 GB/FB ratio. If he repeats in those three categories this season, he should be able to rack up another 30 saves.

In Part III of this series I’ll review my final eight selections and give a few closing thoughts on the draft.

By Ray Flowers

Signings and Strategy

I had a nice weekend. I went out on a wonderful date on Friday night, amazingly the second time that the beautiful woman agreed to see me, had my first Tom Collins on Saturday (not bad at all), and I got to lounge around on Sunday in my pajamas while watching inane movies off my recently purchased subscription to Netflix. I also spent my usual amount of time running through all the happenings in the sports world as I found out that even while slightly intoxicated I could still remember the majority of facts and figures I came across (to be honest I already knew this having spent a good portion of the past three years drunk – my mom would be so proud). Hopefully your weekend went as well as mine.

Enough with that. You didn’t come here to read about my fledgling life as a social butterfly, so let’s get down to some hardcore analysis shall we?

A Signing and a Free Agent

Jason Bartlett signed a 2-year, $11 million deal to take over at shortstop for the Padres. The deal buys out his last season of arbitration and first year of free agency in 2012. The dollars might seem somewhat pricey given that he hit .254 with 47 RBI and 11 steals last year, but he was a fantasy superstar in 2009 (.320-14-66-90-30). The “real” Bartlett is somewhere between those two extremes. I’d draft Bartlett for his average (.281 career) and for the speed that led to 20-steals each year from 2007-09. If he returns to that level he will have an awful lot of value in NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes is still a free agent, and I’m having a hard time understanding why that is. Maybe he wants big dollars, but plenty of middle relievers this offseason have gotten loaded (see Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy). Perhaps it is because he wants to serve as a closer and teams don’t have an opening for him there? What I can say for certain is that he still owns the skills to be a highly effective reliever. He only lasted 48 innings last season because of injury, but when he was on the hill he was vintage Fuentes with a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and an 8.81 K/9 mark. The K-rate was down a full batter from his career rate, and that certainly is a concern, but after posting a career worst 7.53 mark in ’09 adding a batter plus to that rate in ’10 is certainly encouraging. It should also be noted that his fly ball rate last season was over 58 percent, a massive number. If/when that number recedes closer to his career rate of 45.0 percent, one would think he would have little trouble continuing to get batters out. With all of that, and the fact that he is one of just four men with at least 20 saves each of the past six years (Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez), isn’t it odd that Brian is still twisting in the wind?

Strategy Corner

A brief thought as we slowly start to move away from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.

Don’t believe the hype.

Sometimes the hype is warranted, but at least as often the hype ends up amounting to little. How does that apply to the early 2011 mock draft winds?

Adrian Gonzalez is being taken as a first round selection. I’ve already given my thoughts as to why I think that is a bad idea in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. Also, put this in your pipe and smoke it – do you know how many seasons A-Gone has had with a .300 average and 30 homers? The answer is zero. There are a lot of reasons to think A-Gone will be extremely productive this season, and if healthy a .300-30 season seems a strong bet, but that doesn’t mean he’ll improve to the level of being a top-10 selection. I would only suggest that you do your own analysis and take into account your own thoughts on the matter and don’t blindly jump in because it’s what everyone else is doing. Sometimes doing the old zig while everyone is zagging is beneficial. Don’t be a sheep following the others, be your own person and lead based on what you think is right, even if it is counter to the commonly accepted position of the “experts.”

The World of Numbers

I love numbers – you might have gathered that if you have read anything I have ever written. If you have a few more minutes to kill reading my work, click on the link to By the Numbers where I talk about the historical greatness of Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome to name but a few of the players I tackle in the piece.

By Ray Flowers

Giants Add Tejada

Tejada to Giants

The San Francisco Giants wasted no time replacing the departed Juan Uribe who signed with the Dodgers (Californian’s on the Move) by inking Miguel Tejada to a 1-year deal for $6.5 million. So let me see if I have this right. The Giants said adios to Uribe when the Dodgers offered him $7 million a season, for three years mind you, and then went out and signed Tejada for two years less and with a savings of $500,000 in 2011. That seems like a pretty good trade off to me. Let’s take a look at the production of each player in 2010.

Tejada: .269-15-71-71-2 with 26 doubles, .312 OBP, .381 SLG
Uribe: .248-24-85-64-1 with 24 doubles, .310 OBP, .440 SLG

No one will argue that Uribe has more pop, or that he is a better defender at this stage of each players careers, but those numbers are still pretty darn close are they not? Given the financial investment that was given to both players, you have to say that the Giants came out ahead if for no other reason than they didn’t have to agree to a contract that was for three years.

Let’s take a deeper look at the 2011 outlook for Tejada.

No longer the MVP level player he once was, Tejada still has some success at the dish. Largely because of the fact that he simply is never hurt – he has appeared in at least 156 games in 11 of the last 12 seasons – Tejada has managed to record at least 13 homers, 66 RBI and 71 runs scored in each of those 12 seasons. Those numbers certainly don’t excite as much as having plans on a Friday night with a lady friend, but they are still noteworthy because Tejada is the only shortstop in baseball who has reached them each of the past 12 years. Moreover, he is one of only three players, regardless of position, with a 12-year stretch of 13-66-71. The other two players in the group are Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez. That level of production makes Tejada a strong NL-only option, but he is more of a middle infield option in mixed leagues (don’t forget that Miguel qualifies at both short – 58 games – and third base – 97 games – in 2011).

The downside though is always present with Tejada, especially as he enters his late 30′s.

(1) He will be 37 years old in late May, and that fact, combined with years of heavy work, leave his defensive acumen in some serious doubt. He is nothing more than an average option at short – that is being kind – and is clearly better suited to play third base at this stage of his career.

(2) He hasn’t hit more than 18 homers since 2006 and in each of the past three seasons his HR/F ratio has been under 8.3 percent, a disappointing total for a player who owns a career mark of 12.6 percent. The fact is that Tejada isn’t going to go deep 20 times in 2011, especially hitting in San Francisco. He has been remarkably consistent though in his ground ball to fly ball ratio which has been between 1.52 and 1.69 the past four years, so one would think he still has a shot at 15 dingers.

(3) He is an extremely impatient hitter. While his .339 career OBP is merely average and honestly a poor number for a player of his skill level, he has been even worse in two of the last three seasons (.314, .340 and .312). When you have middling power and no stolen base speed, it certainly would be advisable to work the count at least a bit. Alas, that just isn’t in the cards with Tejada. On the plus side he does make excellent contact with a career K-rate of less than 13 percent. In addition, his K-rate has been less than 11.5 percent in each of the past four seasons. His bat might be slowing with age, but he still isn’t striking out.

In the end, the Giants did well to add Tejada at a cost that makes more sense than what the Dodgers paid to Juan Uribe. As a Giants fans I wish they would have made a move to bring in Jason Bartlett to play short, but given the relatively minor investment that they made in Tejada I’m not against this deal, that is until an 18 hop ground ball works its way through the left side of the Giants’ infield between Tejada and Pablo Sandoval.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Signings, Jan.19, 2010

A whole bushel of players agreed to one year deals with their teams in the past 36 hours. Which signings made sense? Which were bad idea? I’ll give my thoughts on each of the players listed below in today’s Around the Horn piece.

Twins: J.J. Hardy
Marlins: Jorge Cantu, Leo Nunez, Dan Uggla
Rays: Jason Bartlett
Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick
Rockies: Huston Street
Rangers: Josh Hamilton
Brewers: Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks
Dodgers: Hong-Chi Kuo, James Loney, George Sherrill

By Ray Flowers