Deals a Startin

It was only a matter of time before the deals started to fly with the Trade Deadline set for July 31st. I usually avoid the rumors, they tend to change like every 13 minutes, but today we’ve actually got a deal that we can discuss. Here are the parameters.

White Sox Receive: Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart

Blue Jays Receive: Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen

That’s what we know for certain. However, there’s a twist. It looks like this deal is a precursor to another move. Here is that proposed deal.

Cardinals Receive: Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepcynski and Corey Patterson

Blue Jays Receive: Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, P.J. Walters

I know, my brain hurts too. Here are some of my thoughts on the key players involved in the deals.

Colby Rasmus
A five tool talent prone to mental lapses and selfish/destructive behavior, the dude is just 24 years old and just a year removed from a .276-23-66-85-12 campaign. He can’t hit lefties (.228 in 303 at-bats in his career), is prone to massive slumps (he’s hit .201 over his last 42 games), and he strikes out too much (more than a fifth of his at-bats), but there is no disputing the talent – and he’s still just 24 years

Edwin Jackson
A nice arm no doubt, but he’s always been inconsistent. On the year his K/BB ratio of 2.49 would be a career best, but he still sports a 3.92 ERA, has a high WHIP at 1.42, and is a roller coaster ride. He’ll move to the NL which should help at least a bit, making him a solid add in mixed leagues. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so he has something to pitch for.

Octavio Dotel
He can still fling it, he has better than a K per inning this year, and he’s even done a solid job limiting the walks with a 3.68 per nine mark which would be a four year low. He’s also locked in right now with a 2.40 ERA over his last 19 appearances.

Jason Frasor
This righty really has better stuff than he’s given credit for. He doesn’t have one outstanding skill, but he usually throws strikes, doesn’t kill you in the ratio categories (2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), and generally does a good job keeping the ball in the yard (0.76 HR/9 for his career).

Corey Patterson
Fleet of foot, Patterson always seems to have a stretch where he flat out kills it, but in the end the numbers never seem to get to where you look at them with excitement (i.e. his slash line is .252/.287/.379). Really, a .287 OBP? The six homers, 44 runs and 13 steals make him a solid league specific add, but he simply isn’t a very good hitter.

Mark Rzepcynski
Rumpelstiltskin has a nice arm. He get Ks, he has an 8.22 K/9 mark in the bigs, and he gets grounders like no ones business (54.4 percent). He may never pan out as a starter, but he could have a long and successful career with his skill set coming out of the pen.

Zach Stewart
A 3rd round pick in 2008, Stewart might end up doing the old starter in the minors, reliever in the majors thing. Also like Mark R., Stewart has a nice ground ball arm, though his K-rate has dipped a bit the two years (about seven per nine the past two years in Double-A).

Mark Teahen
Really? I’ll say this, he is a great follow on Twitter (@ESPY_TEAHEN)

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

Insights and Jed Wars

Today I’m going to pause long enough from my sniffles, yes, I seem to have picked up another case of the cooties, to give my thoughts on a few of the pertinent issues in the game. I’ll also post a link at the end to a video I made for one of the expert baseball leagues I’m in this season.

Things are so spotty with the health of Lance Berkman (knee) that running 50-yard sprints at 75 percent is newsworthy. He still hopes to be back next week, though I really have no idea if that is a reasonable goal or not.

Want to know how fickle managers are when it comes to the ninth inning? Frank Francisco and Mike Gonzalez have already lost their closers jobs – though both teams have said they will regain them once they are back to throwing the ball as they can. It appears there might also be a changing of the guard in Toronto as well where manager Cito Gaston came out on Tuesday and said that he was no longer going to go with Jason Frasor as the exclusive closer. Gaston has changed his tune after going into the year saying he would pick just one guy, and now he will go with a different option in consecutive games. Certainly it hasn’t helped that Frasor has a loss and two blown saves, but come on now Cito. Don’t give us that B.S. that you don’t want to use the same guy in back-to-back games, just be honest with us and say that Frasor has been awful and Kevin Gregg deserves a shot. No one is stupid enough to buy your explanation.

Conor Jackson is one of the odder leadoff men in the history of baseball from a physical standpoint. He’s obviously only there because the D’backs don’t have a better option, but I gotta say that his stroke basically looks like the mirror image of Joe Mauer. Seriously, it’s that pretty.

Nick Johnson crushed a homer today, way out of New Yankee Stadium. Gotta tell you though, everything that guy does makes me nervous. It’s kinda like the beautiful woman with the evening gown who looks like someone you’d like to take back to the hotel room until you see her walk in her heels which makes her look like a reject from gymnastics class who couldn’t balance on the balance beam. In the batters box the swing looks pretty, but when Johnson is doing anything other than swinging the lumber I just want to close my eyes.

Clayton Kershaw will never reach his potential if he keeps throwing so many pitches. For the record, Kershaw needed 110 pitches to record just 16 outs (5.1 innings) against the D’backs on Tuesday. You just can’t win too many ball games, or be a big game pitcher, if you can never make it out of the sixth inning. The talent is immense, but the lack of control with his pitches is certainly holding him back.

Manny Ramirez crushed a homer 435 feet on Tuesday with one of his effortless swings. Those people who predicted failure from him in 2010 just don’t get it. This guy is one of the top-10 right-handed hitters in the history of the game. Yeah, I said it.

It looks like the Mets will follow through on their plan to bat leadoff man Jose Reyes third in the lineup. Reyes will likely move back into the leadoff spot when Carlos Beltran returns from his knee injury, but that still might be a month or more away given that Beltran still hasn’t been allowed to run yet as the doctors continue to hold him back. Reyes is capable of handling the role, but he might be less inclined top run wild with the middle of the order right behind him.

And finally, for those of you who weren’t aware, I’m in JED WARS this season. What is Jed Wars? It’s an offshoot of Tout Wars, the preeminent fantasy baseball experts league in the country, and is named after Jed Latkin (for more on Jed you can given the movie Fantasyland a view at the link). Back to me, and let’s face it that’s what I’m always all about, you can click on my brief little intro at BaseballGuys Introduction if you want to get some insight into who I am complete with happy faced sweats, gnomes and a Nerd Herd hat from the television show Chuck.

By Ray Flowers

Opening Day – 2010

With Opening Day 2010 finally upon us, I’ll hit nine quick stories that caught my fancy.

(1) Albert Pujols makes MVP statement.

(2) Jason Heyward hits HR, makes history.

(3) Johan Santana cruises in first start.

(4) Carlos Gonzalez four hits for Rockies.

(5) Carlos Gomez four hits (incl. HR) and a steal.

(6) Garrett Jones blasts two homers.

(7) Shaun Marcum takes no-hitter into 7^th inning.

(8) Jason Frasor blows first save for Blue Jays.

(9) Mark Buehrle tosses 7 scoreless against Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.3, 2010

(1) The Giants and Tim Lincecum can’t agree on $.

(2) Erik Bedard to stay with Mariners?

(3) Adrian Gonzalez on his way out of San Diego?

(4) Joba Chamberlain – to start or relieve?

(5) Russell Branyan can’t find a home.

(6) Kevin Gregg to Blue Jays – will he close?

By Ray Flowers

What is My Value?

I’m always fascinated by how people evaluate player worth on a weekly basis. Therefore, I’m always interested to see the weekly recaps of free agent bidding in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or the NFBC. These leagues are made up of 15 teams with 30 person rosters, so there is always a lot of prospecting going on each week as people are basically forced to pick up players, in most cases, that they hope will be able to help them in the future because very, very few full time players are on waivers at one time (therefore, anytime someone has a big week, you can almost be certain they will be a hot property). Here is a review of some of the players that were rostered off waivers this past weekend. Listed are the range of dollar figures for each guy, based on a season long budget of $1000.

Jeremy Accardo – $3 to $207
Wow, talk about a huge spread. Why everyone was so ga-ga over a guy who had spent the entire year in the minors is beyond me (I bid $18 for him in my league). If the club really thought he was that good, would they have let him toil in the minors all season? Anyway, my money is on Jason Frasor taking over the closers role with Scott Downs on the DL, though I don’t know about his long-term outlook. I bid $32 on Frasor, but was outbid in my league (someone went $177 on Frasor and $71 on Accardo in my league). By the way, Frasor went from $11 to $187 dollars overall.

Khalil Greene – $1 to $170
Back hitting home runs and playing third base. Of course, you could have had him for a $1 in about 95 percent of the leagues if you picked him up two weeks ago.

Livan Hernandez – $1 to $25.
You’ve got to be kidding me, right? You’d have to pay me to add him. Next.

Travis Ishikawa – $2 to $34
Seriously? Have you seen what the guy is hitting on the road (.102 with a .412 OPS in 49 at-bats) this season?

Pedro Martinez – $1 to $31
Trying to catch lighting in an old bottle. No team has signed this HOF bound all-time great as of this writing.

John Mayberry – $1 to $91
Will be playing full-time until Raul Ibanez returns, but then what? Most likely he will head back to the minors or be a rather useless fourth option for the Phillies given their top-3 strength in Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth.

Casey McGehee – $1 to $52
Hey, the guy is hitting .348 with 17 runs scored in 36 games. He should be on someone’s roster in a 15 team league with 30 man rosters.

Miguel Montero – $1 to $30
With Chris Snyder on the DL with a back issue, it shouldn’t take more than two weeks to heal up, everyone was on the Montero bandwagon even if they didn’t spend any dough to get him.

Fernando Nieve -$1 to $59
Keep pitching well for the Mets, and as of now he seems to be securing a rotation spot at the expense of the nearly healthy John Maine and/or Oliver Perez.

Scott Richmond – $21 to $122
Strike out 11 batters, and watch the dollars fly. I wonder how much Chad Gaudin will go for this weekend?

Ramon Troncoso – $1 to $28
Save prospecting as people were concerned that Jonathan Broxton might be forced to the DL with that sore toe of his. No such luck so far.

Oh, and one other moronic issue that I felt compelled to address…

The news broke today that Marlon Byrd has been working with Stan Conte, the man who ran BALCO and helped to destroy faith in baseball players with performance enhancing drugs like “the cream” and “the clear” What, was Satan or Mengele unavailable Mr. Byrd? Even if the supplements you are taking are “legal,” does it really make any sense to be dealing with the man who helped to bring baseball to its knees? Idiotic.

By Ray Flowers

Thursday's AL Beat

Normally I just ramble on about whatever baseball topics catch my fancy. I’m not really changing that up today, I’m merely going to throw one topic out there that I’ll have to follow to somewhat focus my ramblings – I’m only going to discuss happenings in the American League.

The Blue Jays used eight pitchers in a nine inning game for the first time in team history on Thursday as they emerged victorious 8-7 over the Phillies. If you quickly glance at the scorecard you’ll see that recent called up Jeremy Accardo picked up the save. Huh? With Scott Downs on the DL with a sprained big toe the thought was that the team would turn to Jason Frasor to shut the door in the ninth, so why did Accardo pick up the save? Frasor did enter the game late, but it was in the bottom of the eighth inning. Frasor then proceeded to blow the save though he allowed only one hit while recording an out. The club then turned to B.J. Ryan to start the ninth inning, and he picked up a walk and a strikeout before he too was removed for Accardo who recorded two outs to pick up his first save of the season in his first big league appearance of the year. Despite all this craziness if I had to grab Blue Jays’ reliever at this point I would line them up as Frasor, Ryan and Accardo as I think today was the exception and not the rule. Oh yeah, I also should mention that despite the blown save, Frasor picked up his fifth victory of the year once again proving just how ineffective it is to judge a pitcher by his record (he is now 5-0). Frasor now has more victories than Javier Vazquez who has only four victories despite posting a 3.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 112 Ks in 92.1 innings this season for the Braves.

Gavin Floyd was screwed on Thursday as the White Sox’ bullpen betrayed him. Floyd left the game with a 5-1 lead after seven innings before a collection of arms conspired to help the cross town Cubs to emerge with a 6-5 victory. In the outing Floyd only struck out two batters but he allowed just seven base runners in his seven innings to lower his ERA to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.36. Those numbers still don’t match his totals from last season (3.84 and 1.26), but given his poor start to the year they are rather remarkable. Floyd has now hurled 6-straight “quality starts” for the Sox even though he has only two victories to show for it despite a 1.62 ERA in that time. I don’t think he will be able to get his numbers down to the point that they will rival what he did last season, but as of now he is pitching better than the likes of Zack Greinke and Johan Santana, and that is certainly saying something.

Magglio Ordonez has been benched by Jim Leyland in Detroit for his continued struggles at the dish. Mags is hitting .273 with only two home runs and 22 RBI putting him on pace to roughly hit six bombs with 60 RBI this season. For a guy who has averaged 24 home runs and 115 RBI the past three seasons, that is a shocking fall. His BB/K rate is still strong at 0.76, the same as his career numbers, and his BABIP mark is also right on his career mark of .320 at .315. So why the struggles? (1) He isn’t hitting the ball hard with a 15.2 LD-rate, and that is a precipitous fall from his career 20 percent mark. (2) His swing has been bereft of power as his current Isolated Power mark of .069 is roughly one third his career .202 mark. For those of you who read Isolated Power and think it’s a foreign language, the measure basically outlines a player’ ability to produce extra base hits. If you want to read more about it, click on the following link to Isolated Power, A Review. The bottom line is that it appears, even when he makes contact, that he is hitting with a wiffle ball bat.

John Smoltz got the thumbs up after his strong minor league start on Wednesday night in which he permitted a single run in four innings of work at Triple-A Pawtucket (without a doubt one of the best names in minor league baseball). As a result of his diligent work coming back from his shoulder surgery, Smoltz will finally be seen on a major league diamond for the first time this season on June 25th against the Nationals. For now the team plans to go with a 6-man rotation, but we’ll see how long that lasts. For more on Smoltz, give One Up, One Down a read.

By Ray Flowers