Player Profile: Jason Hammel

Jason Hammel has long been a pitcher with the skills to succeed, even if his efforts on the hill never quite led to the production that it was thought he could bring (I wrote about Hammel back in February of 2011 in The Strikeout: Starters). Last season, his first in Baltimore after three seasons in Colorado, he was well on his way to finally fulfilling those expectations. Alas, he was limited to just 118 innings due to injury (his knee bothered him for long stretches of the year and he had surgery on the wheel in July) which leaves his outlook heading into 2013 about as fuzzy as it has always been.

Why would I bother talking a guy who has a 42-51 record and a career 4.78 ERA? That’s a fair question. Each year, from 2008-11, Hammel had an ERA of at least 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.39, and his record in that time was 31-34. However, he had just enough punchouts, kept the walks under control, and kept the ball on the ground just well enough to be of interest. Add in the Coors Field factor, we all know how it’s not a hospitable place to perform if you are a pitcher, and there was some thought that he could have a little more success in Baltimore even though he would be moving to the AL to pitch in arguably the toughest division in baseball (the AL East). So what happened last year in Baltimore? Some stuff that was better than anyone could have possibly hoped for.

Hammel had never struck out more than 7.14 batters per nine innings and he owned a career mark under 6.50 heading in to last season. Given that, it was pretty shocking to see his K/9 mark swell to a dominating 8.62. He threw his fastball harder than ever before, a mph harder than his career average, and that helped a bit. He also generated more swings on pitches outside the strike zone than ever before as his 29.7 percent mark was one percent better than his previous seasons best (oddly, his 44.6 swing percentage, the number of pitches he threw that batters swung at, was a six year low). Also, batters were able to post a 77.3 percent contact rate on all pitchers, light years below the 84 and 85 percent marks of 2010-11. Are those growth moves sustainable?

Hammel walked 3.20 batters per nine innings last season, a slightly elevated number for a guy with a 3.12 career mark. Add the walks to the strikeouts and you end up with a 2.69 K/BB ratio, well ahead of his 2.11 career mark but still well below the 3+ mark he posted in 2009-10.

The move out of Colorado certainly helped him to keep the ball in the yard as his 0.69 HR/9 mark was a career best and 30 percent below the 1.01 mark he owns for his career. Was his HR/F ratio to blame? Was it some ridiculously low number last season? Nope it wasn’t as it was 9.7 percent, within less than a percent of his career mark of 10.5. That leaves the explanation as to why the homer total fell at the foot of the amount of fly balls he allowed in his first season back in the AL (he pitched for the Rays from 2006-08). Hammel, somehow, held batters to a 28.1 percent fly ball rate. That’s extremely low, even for an extreme ground ball arm, and lo and behold that was what Hammel was last season. After six years never posting a ground ball rate of 47 percent, Hammel was able to generate a mark of 53.2 percent last season leading to a 1.89 GB/FB ratio. Some perspective here.

Hammel for career: 46.1 ground ball rate, 1.37 GB/FB, 6.58 K/9
Hammel for 2012: 53.2 ground ball rate, 1.89 GB/FB, 8.62 K/9
Felix Hernandez for ’12: 48.9 ground ball rate, 1.71 GB/FB, 8.65 K/9

Wow is right. Hammel shifted from solid for six years to dominating last season, so much so that his numbers compare favorably to King Felix, the highest paid pitcher in baseball history (if his 7-years, $175 million deal stands up as there are some concerns about his elbow right now).

Can growth like that happen for a pitcher in his seventh season in the league? Sure it’s possible. He might develop a new pitch, a new motion, just be “on” more times than not, learn a new way to attack hitters or might be moved to a ballpark that is more conducive to his pitching style. All of that could help explain how a pitcher improves. But ask yourself this question. How many times do you remember a guy going from six years of league average performance to becoming a borderline star overnight? How many times does that happen to a fella who pitches in the AL East? As if the questions about the division and performance weren’t enough, how would you feel about the guy if he was coming off an injury marred season that required surgery to the players knee? There’s a lot to like here with Hammel if the price is right (over in the NFBC world his ADP is 69th among starting pitchers). Make sure the cost is fair before you invest too heavily as there is always the chance that his knee holds him down or, more likely, he isn’t able to hold on to all the gains he flashed last season.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Looking at the Mound

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some surprise pitchers this season and some good spot starters down the stretch:  Matt Wieters, Ryan Reynolds, Kris Medlen, Hisashi Iwakuma, Zach Britton, Jason Hammel, Jeremy Guthrie and Chris Archer.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

This contest has been running for the past six weeks and Jousters have been playing every day to see who will qualify. If you were the winner of a $1 Page Thomas or $2 Squire Williams All Star Joust Qualifier, then you have earned a seat in the All Star Joust. The winner of All Star Joust will receive $1500 CASH plus 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th.

$2,000 MLB All Star Joust Freeroll
- $1,500 CASH to the WINNER
- 2 tickets ($500 value) to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th
Please check the list of Qualifiers to see if you are in All Star Joust

$1,000 King James “BEAT MOBYDICKLER” MLB Tournament
- 1st place $400 and Tournament Badge
- Winner gets seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September
- Beat “Mobydickler” and earn a “Bounty” badge towards your Super Joust III and $250 Monthly Badge Rewards Freeroll total

$300 King John MLB Tournament – $5 entry
- 1st place $100
- Winner receives seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link and look for the “Crown” icon along with “Super Joust Qualifier” in the contest line.

Daily Joust – Wk 1: Did We Learn Anything?

There is finally a week of MLB games in the books. It might have two weeks for MLB to get all the teams on the field and playing, but how nice was it to see some action that actually counted? Did we learn anything in the first week of action? We learned that closers all over the place will have a hard time keeping their jobs if they keep this up. We learned how damaging losing one of your bullpen arms can be (see the Red Sox disastrous meltdown in the 9th with Andrew Bailey on the shelf after thumb surgery). We also learned that miracles can happen as the Mets started the year 3-0. What else did we learn that you might be able to apply to your Daily Joust fantasy baseball teams? So glad you asked.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Anyone who rostered Clayton Kershaw ($319,000 DJ Salary) on their DailyJoust club.

Kershaw, suffering from the flu, managed to toss just three scoreless innings before he had to remove himself from his Opening Day start. You pat him on the back for giving it the old college try, but he simply killed everyone who had him active, and that was a large amount of folks given that Kershaw was coming off a season in which he led NL hurlers in wins (21 – tied with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). Kershaw should be ready to take his turn in the rotation Tuesday in the Dodgers homer opener and the expectation is that he will be able to pitch as long as his performance dictates.

ALREADY MASHING

Yoenis Cespedes ($90K): His opening series, highlighted by that 462 foot bomb he blasted to dead center field, showed just what type of hitter Cespedes can be. However, pitchers will find his weaknesses. They will exploit his weaknesses. His swing is still very long and has holes. He’s never faced this level of competition on a daily basis. Speaking of that, he’s never played a season with 162 games. Cespedes has produced a nice prologue, but this book still has 25 chapters to go.

Zack Cozart ($76K): The Reds’ shortstop killed it in Week 1 going 6-for-11 with a homer and four RBI. That’s as good as it’s going to get. Expectations are very high for Cozart heading into his first full season. The good news is that his recovery from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm is complete. The bad news is that he isn’t as good a hitter as some think. Just look at his minor league numbers that include a .270 batting average, .332 OBP and .421 SLG. In 506 career games he hit 50 homers, stole 55 bases and produced that blah slash line. He’s simply not a prime time performer with a bat in his hand.

Rafael Furcal ($87K): After four games and 19 at-bats Furcal is hitting .526. As recently as 2010 he hit .300 with 22 steals, but he also appeared in 97 games that season, one of three years in the past four campaigns in which he didn’t appear in 100 games. That’s the key for the 34 year old – health. When he’s out there he can still produce, but the battle to drag his body out onto the field continues to be one that he often loses. Ride the hot hand, but realize that it’s all downhill from here.

Nick Markakis ($98K): Worries about his recovery from offseason abdominal surgery have been put to rest. It’s just three games, but Markakis has a triple, two homers an is hitting .556. One of the more stable commodities in the game, Markakis has produced at least 182 hits in each of the past five years. He plays everyday which helps to lead to the production, but he’s also failed to hit more than 18 homers the past three years, has seen his RBI total fail to hit 75 the past two years, and the last time he scored 80 runs was 2009. He’s consolid, but he’s unlikely to become a megastar in 2012.

ORIOLES PITCHERS

Through three games the Orioles are the best staff in baseball with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP as they led the club to a 3-0 start against the Twins. The real question though is – are the Orioles arms that good or are the Twins bats that bad? Go with the second choice. The Twins just didn’t hit the ball – at all – in the opening series of games. Here’s a quick run down of each of the Orioles hurlers who started those three games.

* Note: All three hurlers were/are great values given that the elite arms can approach or surpass $300,000.

Jake Arrieta ($151K): Win, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BBs, 4 Ks
Jason Hammel ($144K): Win, 8 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BBs, 5 Ks
Tommy Hunter ($150K): Win, 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks

All three dominated the Twins and cost virtually nothing. If you were crazy enough to start any of them, the payoff was massive. Alas, none profile as strong long term options.

Arrieta is the best arm on this list. However, he struggled mightily at times during his first two seasons, an eventually had to have elbow surgery. He throw hard but still only struck out batters at a league average rate last season. He also walked batters like he was Jonathan Sanchez with a 4.45 per nine mark. Through 226.2 big league innings he has a 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.14 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB. It doesn’t get more bland than that.

Hammel is slightly intriguing. Freed from Colorado, perhaps he will live up to expectations with the Orioles (though pitching in the AL East isn’t exactly going to be easy). Unfortunately he’s coming off a putrid season that resulted in career worsts in K/9 (he lost nearly two batters off the mark he posted in 2009-10), while his BB/9 rate climbed by more than a batter per nine innings. He does a decent job in limiting the fly balls, but nothing in this skill set raises the flag up the pole at the moment.

Hunter is as average as you get when you look at his skills – worse than that actually. His K/9 rate is 4.96 for his career, more than two batters below the league average. At least he doesn’t beat himself with the walk so the result is a rather impressive 3.00 K/BB ratio. Still, he doesn’t miss any bats, is slightly below the league average with a 1.00 GB/FB mark (1.10 is the league mark), and he was never able to convince the Rangers to given him more than 128 innings of work in a season which should tell you something.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

The Strikeout: Starters

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

By Ray Flowers