Daily Joust – Wk 4: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (+72 to $258K in the DailyJoust salary)
Dickey had a rough start on April 18th (8 ER in 4.1 IP), but in his other three starts he’s posted a quality start each time out allowing a total of four runs. Overall his ratios aren’t that bad consider that one abysmal start (4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but it should be pointed out that he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts and his total of six longs balls allowed is already a third of the way to his total of 18 allowed last year.

Alex Gonzalez (+24, $89K)
He is what he is. That means Alex is a middling average producer with no stolen base speed and decent pop in his bat. Hitting .254, seven points above his career mark, Gonzalez has also not stolen a base (shocker since he has only six the past five years. Alas, there is that power. With four homers and 12 RBI through 19 games for the Brewers he’s well on pace to better his totals of 15 and 56 from last season with a shot at numbers akin to his 2010 effort (23 HR, 88 RBI).

Carlos Gonzalez (+17, $120K)
Come on, were you really worried? I know that some of you were, you know who you are, so hopefully his huge effort last week will put those concerns to bed. Over his last six games CarGo has four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and two steals. All of a sudden he is hitting .288 with four homers/steals, 16 RBI/runs in just 18 games of action. Elite thy name is Gonzalez.

Ramon Hernandez (+26, $105K)
A big couple of games for the aging catcher leave him with two homers, six RBI and three runs scored in his last three games. Alas, he’s still hitting a measly .241 on the year and he hasn’t walked once in 15 games. Really Ramon, not one walk? He can still be a productive bat when he plays, but the last three years he hasn’t played 100 games once. If not for Willin Rosario struggling so much (.194 with 12 Ks in 31 at-bats) Ramon might already be losing playing time.

Mike Minor (+76 to $293K)
In three games since giving up six runs in his first outing, Minor has gone 2-0 while allowing four runs on his way to three quality starts. Minor also has a 15:1 K/BB ratio in those three starts showing everyone why he was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves. He’s not quite on par with Brandon Beachy, but Minor’s star is certainly on the upswing.

Vance Worley (+68, $287K)
Worley has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts, an only one time has he allowed more than a run (he gave up four runs to the Mets in six innings). Stung by the long ball, he’s allowed four in four starts after giving up just 10 last season, Worley also has 27 punch outs in just 25 innings of work.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Chase Headley (-30, $80K)
Come on, you knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep up the pace. Over his last 10 games he has no homers and just two RBI, but on the year he has still produced 14 RBI and an .875 OPS. He has his issues, not the least of which being a ballpark that is going to keep his power numbers down, but overall this has been a pretty impressive start for Headley (see that .394 OBP).

Jason Heyward (-47, $67K)
With eight steals in 22 starts Heyward looks like a big time base stealing thief. Unfortunately, no one has ever thought of him in that light. Maybe 20-25 steals, but not 40+ like his early season base certainly suggests. Heyward has also gone deep just twice in 22 games, and his performance over his last 10 outings, other than the four steals, has left a lot to be desired (only seven hits, three RBI and four runs scored). Still, a heartening start.

Bud Norris (-53, $168K)
Eleven runs allowed in two outings will get everyone up in arms about your outlook. At the same time, Norris still had 12 Ks in those 11.2 innings, and four walks in that time isn’t an obnoxious number (seems like people over at Fleaflicker are plenty nervous though, just look at that ownership rate). The fact is, he just got pounded with his pitches in the strike zone leading to 19 hits. On the year he still has 22 Ks and just eight walks in 24.2 innings, solid numbers the both of them, and there is no way he’s going to allow four homers every two times he takes the hill.

Jose Tabata (-30, $55K)
Through 65 at-bats he has no homers and two runs scored. He’s also been caught on half of his six steal attempts. At the same time there has been some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel as he has raised his average from .111 to .231 over the last seven games as he has produced 11 hits. He still has an awful long way to go to get back to being the player who hit .299 with 19 steals in just 102 games in 2010.

Randy Wolf (-33, $165K)
Wolf was beat around for 11 runs in his first two outings, so allowing a mere six runs in his last two forays onto the bump is clearly progress. At best a 7.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 1.44 K/BB ratio says that Wolf should not be in your starting lineup. At worst it might be time to cut Wolf loose and replace him with someone else that at least won’t kill your ratios while he tries to figure out what ails him.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 3: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Bartolo Colon (+43 to $236,000 in Daily Joust salary): The A’s hurler has been fantabulistic this season striking out 19 batters while walking only two batters over 27.1 innings leading to a 2.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. This is as good as it gets. You can start him for the moment, he’s rolling right along after throwing 38-straight strikes in his last outing, but there is no chance he’ll keep this up so know that the good times will strop rolling – soon.

Jamie Moyer (+39, $179K): How he does it no one knows, but through three starts Moyer has a 2.55 ERA an a 1.30 WHIP. On the down side he has only six strikeouts through three starts, and check out the “offenses” that he has had success against: Astros, Giants, Padres. The only thing those three offenses have in common is that they are offensive on offense. Moyer has gotten batters out, and he’ll likely continue to do that at a respectable clip, but he’s not someone to count on.

Bruce Chen (+30, $220K): A younger version of Moyer? Not quite, but not too far off either. Chen is 0-1 through three starts but he has a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. That along would be exciting. Add in 14 Ks and just two walks, and the excitement meter moves higher. Over his last 15 starts he is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Pretty impressive stuff.

Jake Peavy (+20, $272K): Last year he had a 3.96 K/BB ratio, a bit under the radar given his 4.92 ERA. This season he’s racked up 21 Ks in just 19.2 innings, while walking only two batters leading to an otherwordly 10.50 K/BB ratio. He’s obviously not keeping this up, but it’s great to see that this once proud hurler is back to being an effective big league pitcher once again. A nice depth option.

A.J. Pierzynski (+12, $107K): Hitting .348 on the young season, A.J. has a .324 career OBP in over ,5,300 at-bats. A.J. is always a solid option at the plate, he’s hit at least .270 in five of the past six years, and he’s always around 10 homers and 55 RBI as a serviceable catcher two in mixed leagues. Make sure you don’t use his hot start to blind you to the facts (people aren’t ever at Fleaflicker where A.J. hasn’t exactly been a hot add to fantasy squads).

Jason Heyward (+11, $105K): Back to bashing, this former “superstar in training” is once again performing like a superstar in training. The five steals aren’t likely to be a pace he will be able to sustain, but it’s heartening to see that he’s cut his ground ball rate from 54 percent, his total his first two seasons, down to 40 percent this year. If he holds on to that gain he should have little problem surpassing his totals of 18 homers and 72 RBI from his rookie season.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Jon Lester (-20, down to $265K): Lester’s numbers look bad with that 5.82 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Still, before his last outing when he was bombed by the Rangers, that ERA stood at 2.40. It’s a sample size situation people. A big concern though is nine walks and just 12 Ks in 17 innings. Given how stable he has been the past few years it would be wise to remain patient, but it’s been a rough start.

Matt Garza (-10, +281K): There are no certainties in life. Still, I’m pretty damn certain that Garza will be what he always is at the end of the season, and that is one of the better non-elite arms in the game. Sure he was shelled in his last outing allowed two homers and six runs to the Marlins, but he still has a 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the year. Everyone would take that in a heartbeat if those were his season long numbers.

Brandon Morrow (-10, $245K): Concern is growing about his total of nine punchouts in 20 innings, so this is a big week for the righty who has starts against the Mariners and Royals. Lost amid concerns over his disappearing K-rate has been his 1.10 WHIP and the fact that he’s further dropped his walk rate down to 3.15 per nine (the number the last three years has been 5.68, 4.06 and 3.46).

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jason Heyward

There are few players in the game with more raw talent then Jason Heyward. At the same time, there are few players in the game with more questions surrounding them than Heyward after he had an abysmal 2011 season. Worse than the numbers he posted is the fact that he is perilously close to having the tag of “soft” stuck to his name forever, and there isn’t anything less flattering that you can have had as a nickname.

As a rookie, Heyward lashed line drives around the field as if multiple All-Star games were a foregone conclusion. Heyward hit .277 with 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs scored and 11 steals over the course of 142 games in an excellent rookie season. Heyward also displayed great plate discipline with a .393  OBP. When you can do all of that as a 21 year old, the world is your oyster. Or so we thought. Heyward saw a regression in almost every imaginable way in his season season.

He lost four homers from his rookie season.
He had 30 fewer RBI.
He scored 33 fewer runs.
He stole two fewer bases.
His batting average fell .050 points.
His OBP dropped .074 points.
His SLG fell from .456 down to .389. Yes, his SLG in Year II was lower than his OBP in Year I.

Was his effort as bad as it seemed? In some respects there is no doubt – Heyward was an unmitigated disaster. In other respects, Heyward wasn’t as awful as it appeared.

Heyward’s K-rate was unchanged from his rookie season as it moved a tenth falling from 20.5 percent down to 20.4 percent. His walk rate was still solid at 11.2 percent, though that was 3.4 percent below his rookie rate. The result was a 0.55 BB/K mark that was still better than the league average. So why did he hit .227? He simply didn’t hit any line drives. Heyward produced a 13.1 percent line drive rate, nearly five points below his rookie mark of 17.8 percent. There is no way puts the barrel on the ball as infrequently in 2012. Since he didn’t hit anything on a line, it’s no surprise that his BABIP fell from .335 to .260. Add those two years up and his BABIP is still right on the big league average of .302.

Despite the loss of liners, Heyward actually did a better job at the plate in two respects. (1) His GB-rate dropped by over a point. (2) His fly ball rate went up by six percent. It may not have translated to anything in 2011, but a few more fly balls will be needed for Heyward to be a 25 homer threat (his HR/F rate was still 13.9 percent in 2011, not an awful number). Bottom line though is that he has to start lifting the ball as his 54 percent ground ball rate is something that Juan Pierre should have, not a guy who stands 6’5” and weighs 240 pounds. Oddly, for those of you into advanced metrics, Heyward’s Isolated Power mark was .179 in 2010, and despite all his struggles in 2011, it only fell to .162 (Isolated Power records a players raw power by taking SLG-AVG).

So what do you do with Heyward in 2012? To me, he’s likely to be one of the better bargains in the game (he was drafted in the sixth round in a recent mock draft of experts though, so it all depends on who you are drafting with in terms of his “bargainess”). Heyward is still only 22 years old. He’s still one of the most impressive physical specimens in the game. He’s only one season removed from a pretty damn impressive rookie effort. The ball still makes a different sound when it comes off his bat. Add that all up and I’m buying Heyward, especially if he slips in drafts. Let others worry about that “soft” label while you take advantage of the discount you will get on a guy who still oozes talent.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 3rd, 2011

(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.

(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.

(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?

(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.

(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.

(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?

(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.

By Ray Flowers

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

photo © 2009 Nicole Hernandez | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve tried to explain how in the world that Jose Bautista is doing what he’s doing, an I’ve pretty much come up craps. In Take a Swing, Jeff Passan takes his hacks.

I don’t remember the last time I did this, but I’m going to quote myself (how narcisitic is that?). Here’s a Twitter post of mine from earlier today. “Did you listen to me about Trevor Cahill? Last five starts: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 0.71 K/BB.” Well did you listen and downgrade him when I told you to or did you blindly push forward irrespecitve of my advice?

Carlos Carrasco has five wins in his last six outings and over his last two efforts, spanning 15.1 innings, he’s held the Twins and the Yankees off the scoreboard. All of a sudden everyone is interested in the Indians’ hurler. Carrasco, a former Phillies’ minor league standout, has done a good job limiting the walks at less than three per nine innings. However, his K-rate is barely over 5.50, and that portends trouble unless you are able to generate a lot of ground balls. Fortunately Carlos does a good job of inducing grounders with a 51.4 percent career GB mark. What I see here is a solid AL-only arm, but one that would be a stretch  in a 15 team mixed league. When he’s got the ground balls flowing he can pitch very well, but the lack of strikeouts means he isn’t going to be someone who makes a true impact in the fantasy game.

I’m still fielding questions about Josh Collmenter. Please tell me you aren’t one of the people asking if you’re in a mixed league. Collmenter has gotten by to this point with a boatload of luck, batters are having a hard time picking up his release point, but the truth of the matter is that Josh simply isn’t a very good pitcher. I know he has a 1.86 ERA an a 0.86 WHIP through 14 games which makes me look stupid, but scouts will tell you that he doesn’t own a single pitch that grades out as better than big league average. He doesn’t strike anyone out (5.74 per nine), doesn’t get any grounders (40 percent of batted balls), and has been one lucky devil with a .205 BABIP. He might end up with passable numbers by the time the season is over, but even if that’s the case there is a ton of regression coming down the pipe.

Alcides Escobar has hit .500 during his seven game hitting streak. He’s still hitting just .235 on the year, but he might be a person of interest in deep mixed leagues who use a middle infielder because in addition to all the hits of late he’s also started to run again with four steals in nine games. The key to that is simple – he’s finally getting on base. The owner of just 10 walks this season, Escobar owns a pathetic .267 OBP. You can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on base.

Everyone in the world seems to think that Jason Heyward is a wussy, and that he has lost all his talent and value. I don’t get that at all. Oh he might be a wussy or diva-like in not wanting to play when he isn’t 100 percent physically, but the skills are still elite (as an aside, he’s traveling to Atlanta to have his shoulder looked at and he could be back in action for the Braves very quickly). His is an example of people simply panicking because they aren’t seeing it on the field. I’m telling you, the young man still owns Hall of Fame talent, still lashes liners harder than just about any person on the planet, and should still be a building block if you’re in a keeper league. I’d bet that in two years you’ll have forgotten all about his dismal first half in 2011.

Josh Johnson was transferred to the 60 day DL. That means the Marlins’ ace will be out of action until at least July 16th. Johnson has yet to throw off the mound since hitting the DL with his shoulder woes, but the team remains confident that he will be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. When injured he left behind some of the best numbers in the game (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 56 Ks in 60.1 IP), but the guy is probably the riskiest top-10 hurler in the game.

Joakim Soria has saves in three straight outings since he returned to the closers role for the Royals. He also picked up a win in his outing previous to the saves run, and he is unscored upon in his last six outings. All is right in the world yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Youngsters in the News

photo © 2011 Neon Tommy | more info (via: Wylio)

People get giddy when they are around greatness. They also loose their minds when they think they have a chance to be in on the ground floor of something big. That’s why all we’ve heard about lately is Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley (I wrote about three of those guys in The Prospect Trinity). I’ve been preaching caution with the expectation train with those four players, and to illustrate how precarious the path to greatness is I thought I would discuss four second year players that are having varying degrees of success this season.

Starlin Castro is hitting .301, one point better than the .300 mark he attained as a rookie. However, after hitting .348 in April he has managed to post a mere .261 mark over his last 134 at-bats. As for his power stroke – it still is MIA. Castro is displaying no power with only one homer in 249 at-bats. So much for the power surge we saw in the post-season (I said he wouldn’t be able to keep that up to anyone that would listen). Castro hasn’t been able to translate his speed into stolen bases either as he has five steals on the year but only o-n-e since April 26th. I wrote about Castro back in February in Second Year Players and warned everyone not to overvalue a player who would likely only offer a boost in the batting average category. You didn’t listen did you?

Aroldis Chapman is struggling – big time. The guy might throw 100+ mph and illicit outright joy in fans who get to watch the radar gun with every blazing pitch, but the results just haven’t been there this season. In 13 innings with the Reds he walked an utterly amazing 20 batters leading to a 13.85 BB/9 mark and a 6.92 ERA. In 5.1 innings since he was sent down to “rehab” a shoulder injury (I’m not buying he is really hurt), Chapman has walked only three batters but he’s allowed 12 hits and 10 runs leading to a 16.88 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The Reds have to get this guy “fixed,” but with the way he’s throwing right now they clearly aren’t even close to meeting that goal.

Jason Heyward is soft. That’s the prevailing thought amongst baseball people, and he did nothing to quiet that belief when he stated that he wouldn’t return to the field until his shoulder was 100 percent. Well, count Chipper Jones as a guy who thinks it’s time for the youngster to buck up. “I think where Jason might have erred was the comment that he made, ‘I’m not coming back until it doesn’t hurt anymore,” Jones said. “…there are a bunch of his teammates that are out there playing with discomfort and not healthy, and still going at it.” Heyward hasn’t played since May 21st, and what was supposed to be a relatively minor issue with his shoulder has now stretched on for a much greater length of time than anyone thought. When you’re being called out in the media by the greatest infielder in team history as Heyward is, it might be time to give yourself a long, hard look in the mirror. Hopefully Heyward will listen and do his best to get back out on the field.

Carlos Santana is hitting .227 and everyone is disappointed in the guy who was supposed to be the breakout star at the catchers position. However, there are plenty of reasons to turn that frown upside down. First, Santana is on pace for about 15 homers, a strong total for a catcher. He’s also on pace for 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. It may not sound like much, but 15-60-60 are totals that only Victor Martinez and Brian McCann matched last season at the catchers position. In addition, Santana has two more walks than strikeouts leading to a .361 OBP, a fantastic mark give his batting average. Trust me, you don’t walk more than you strike out and hit .227. He’s already turned things around the past two weeks as he’s hit .324 with nine RBI, thanks in part to a slight change in his batting stance (he eliminated a toe tap). Santana seems primed to still meet expectations this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 14, 2011

(1) Braves plan on leaving Jason Heyward down in the batting order.

(2) Is Alex Gordon for real?

(3) Should you be worried about the velocity drop of Aroldis Chapman?

(4) Reports of Lance Berkman’s demise were greatly overrated.

(5) Carlos Pena still has pain in his right thumb from April 4th injury.

(6) Chris Young dealing with biceps tendonitis. What a shock.

(7) Pablo Sandoval continues his early season surge.

By Ray Flowers

A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest

I’ve got it all for you today.

First, a mailbag question.
Second, a brief discussion off my fantasy top-25.
Third, a reason to throw up on yourself.

Who wouldn’t want to read about all of that?

I posted my top-25 fantasy players for 2011 just about a month ago. I still like the list, though I might move a couple of guys up and down a few spots. Two main notes at this point after checking out the fantasy landscape. First, I’m shocked at the wide variance with Ryan Braun this draft season. I listed him at #3 overall, but I’ve seen him go as low as #8, the spot I took him in the K-BAD fantasy league over at KFFL. Obviously I was overjoyed to get him that late. Second, I still don’t think Adrian Gonzalez, who I had at #20 on my initial list, should be going in the top-10 overall, but his current ADP is 9th, and in the K-BAD league he went 6th. He’s going to have a hard time justifying that selection since he brings no speed on the base paths.

In my keeper league I can hold on to four players. I’ve settled on Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward and Ubaldo Jimenez. For my fourth spot I’m having trouble. Would you keep David Price, Adrian Beltre or Jayson Werth?

- Todd, Downey, California

I love the young talent in Braun and Heyward, and while I’m not sold on Jimenez duplicating his work from last season, he has to be considered one of the top-15 starters in 2011 so I’m fine with protection him as well. As for the other three that you have to choose from for the last spot, some thoughts follow.

Price: Previously I gave my sentiments on Price in Hot Stove: Still Simmering. You can read the article for the details, but I’ll boil my thoughts on the young lefty down to this – he was slightly fortunate last season, and despite some undeniable growth, I’d be surprised if he repeated his overall pitching line from last season.

Beltre: One of my favorite whipping boys, I’ve written about the new Rangers’ third sacker many times this offseason. In Insanity Reigns Supreme, I broke down how amazing it was that Scott Boras was able to coax so much dough out of the Rangers. I also broke down Beltre on the field and believe, for the 17th time, that the data says he is a good, but not great, option at third base. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue at all with him being my third basemen in standard leagues, but I certainly would not draft him expecting a repeat of last years .321-28-102-84 effort.

Werth: Everyone loved Werth as a Phillie, but now everyone seems rather down on him as a National (I discussed the signing in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010). While h is current ADP is 52 according to MockDraftCentral, I’ve seen him fall below that in some drafts that I have participated in. Werth is leaving a good home yard, as well as a stacked lineup in Philly, so his counting numbers could suffer in Washington. Still, the past three seasons he has been pretty darn good with an average 5×5 line of .279-29-84-92-18. There’s little wrong with that.

So who would I keep? I don’t think there is any reason to keep two pitchers out of the four guys, so I automatically removed Price (plus I’m not high on him anyway). As much as I like Werth, I also don’t think it makes sense to keep three outfielders out of four players. That leaves me with suggesting you roster Beltre given your setup, even if I would prefer to roster Werth if it was an either/or decision.

Do you need another reason to hate Alex Rodriguez? In case you missed it because you spent all of last Sunday making out with your significant other and didn’t watch the Super Bowl, we were served up yet another reason to despise A-Rod. In his best “I’m a Roman Centurion home from battle’ moment, the cameras caught girlfriend Cameron Diaz feeding him popcorn. I threw up in my mouth a little bit. A-Rod found out that the cameras captured it and went “ballistic” demanding that no more shots of him were to be run on television. He got his way, but for this scribe, it didn’t come nearly in time as the vision of Diaz feeding A-Rod popcorn has been seared into my brain, and if you haven’t picked up on it yet, it’s a painful image that will haunt me for many moons. For more on the story you can click the link to A-Rod Furious at Super Bowl Candid Shot (it even has a picture so that you can make yourself nauseous as well).

By Ray Flowers

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers