Player Profile: Cody Ross

Cody Ross had a solid season for the Red Sox as he went deep 22 times while knocking in 81 runs. Some folks around Boston seem to think that Ross is the second coming of Jim Rice. I’m here to tell you he’s not the second coming of Dwight Evans, not even close. What is Ross? He’s a solid 5th outfielder in mixed leagues in fantasy baseball, nothing more, no matter what anyone tells you. Let’s investigate.

NOTE: The D’backs signed Ross to a 3-year, $26 million deal. That’s a bit much for my liking, not crazy high but a bit much. Moreover, his signing overloads the D’backs with outfielders so it seems likely that Jason Kubel or Justin Upton could be dealt to open up playing time for Ross, Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and either Kubel/Upton. I don’t know what the D’backs are doing. See my Player Profile of Justin Upton.

Ross had a great season if you ask Red Sox fans. My reply to that is that he had a great season relative to the abysmal effort of the Red Sox last season. In the grander scheme of things, “great season” can only be applied to Ross if you mean it in the sense of the return on your draft day investment (there were tons of mixed leagues where he wasn’t drafted, and in that situation 21 homers and 81 RBIs is a great season). Some perspective from your favorite downer (that’s me by the way).

After batting .282 in his first 49 games Ross batted .237 over his last 81 games leading to a .267 average on the year. What part of that looks good to you? It should also be noted that the AL batting average last season was .256 and that outfielders hit .265 (Ross is a .262 career hitter). He’s barely treading water here.

More of the same… for the fourth straight season Ross had an OBP in the .320′s, hardly a shock given his career .324 mark. Last season the AL average was .320 making Ross blah as blah gets. Ross also posted a 0.33 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the league average and virtually identical to his career 0.34 mark. It deserves to be noted as well that his 24.4 K-rate was a career worst for a season of at least 150 at-bats.

Ross finished the year with 22 homers, the third time he has reached 20 homers and two off his career best of 24. However, he hit only nine homers over his final 74 games and just six over his last 56 contests. What you see is what you get here. Ross’ 14.9 percent HR/F ratio was actually a five years high, but it still didn’t lead to a big time homer mark cause he just isn’t that strong a hitter.

His RBI total of 81 was the second best of his career (he had 90 in 2009). At the same time that number is far from impressive for a guy who played for the Red Sox and had a change to play half his games at Fenway.

His run scored mark of 70 was the third time in four years he reached that level. Still, it’s not a very impressive number for a mixed league outfielder, is it?

He stole two bases while being caught three times. Over the last three seasons he’s stolen 16 bases. Yippee.

So here is what I see. Tell me there I’m wrong.

For his career Ross has hit .262. For his career the league average is .264.
For his career Ross has a .324 OBP. The league average is .334.
For his carer Ross has a .460 SLG. The league average is .420.
For his career Ross has a .783 OPS. The league average is .753.

Per 150 games played Ross has produced a fantasy line of .262-21-76-67-5. None of that stands out in any way. I would also be remiss if I didn’t note that in a career that began back in 2003 that Ross has played 150 games only twice. Part of the reason for that is that he undershoots his already boring career numbers when he faces right-handed pitching: .253/.312/.415. I’m sorry D’backs fans, but this guys isn’t anything special. The only way that Ross is truly worthy of paying attention to in a mixed league he must convince his employers to give him 500 at-bats. Even with 500 at-bats your still looking at a guy who is barely average across the board. You can do better when it comes to late round gambles in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 16: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Danny Espinosa (+13, $81K in DailyJoust Salary)
With Ian Desmond looking like he could miss a month or more of playing time with his oblique issue, Steve Lombardozzi will handle second base duties full time with Espinosa moving over to shortstop for the Nats. Espy already has six starts at shortstop, and given that most leagues have no more than a 10 game limit for in-season positional qualification, he’s about ready to become one interesting option up the middle. In addition, have you noticed that he’s actually started to hit as well? The past three weeks the only two second sackers who have been more valuable than Espy are Neil Walker and Brandon Phillips. Espinosa is hitting .359 with two homers, eight RBIs, 11 runs scored and four thefts in that time frame. Get on the Espy train as it’s about to fill up quickly.

Adrian Gonzalez (+12, $126K)
I keep getting questions about this guy as it seems that people haven’t noticed that all of a sudden AGone is just killing it. Hitting .406 in July with 15 RBIs in 16 games, Gonzalez is batting an even .400 over his last 90 at-bats to push his season long mark up to .297. ‘What about the nine homers in 94 games Ray?’ What were you expecting? Fenway Park isn’t a great place for home run hitters if you’re a lefty. I tried to explain just that on January 6th, 2011 in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. That’s right, over a year an a half ago. No one listened. He went out and hit 27 homers last year. People still didn’t listen and thought a return to 35+ homers was happening this year. It hasn’t as he has nine. That’s 36 homers in 253 games with the Sox. He averaged 36 homers a season his last two years at Petco. One final note. In 133 career games at Fenway AGone is hitting .333 with 17 homers.

Joe Kelly (+72, $267K)
He’s taken the hill seven times for the Cards and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only one time (the Royals produced three). Kelly has also gone exactly six innings in each of his last five starts, all of them “quality.” Still not remotely sold on him. His 5.72 K/9 mark is poor. His 1.79 K/BB ratio is really bad. His ERA of 2.75 should be a run and a half higher given his skill set (no way he holds on to that 80 percent left on base mark, and that 23 percent line drive rate is pretty high as well). He’s a solid arm who generates a lot of grounders, but it’s not likely that he keeps that ERA under three (it’s 2.75) and that 1.40 WHIP is already worse than the league average.

Jason Kubel (+21, $121K)
Someone ate their Wheaties. Four homers, seven RBIs and five runs scored in two games, and six homers, 11 RBIs, eight runs in his last seven contests. Out of control anyone? Going back a bit further Kubel has been doing his best Josh Hamilton impersonation for a long while as he’s hit .304 with 17 homers and 48 RBIs over his last 39 games. Hell, the guy is even hitting .296 against left handed pitching this year (career .247). Ride the gravy train until it runs out, but some perspective. There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent but has been under 20 percent three of four years). There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent after being 11 percent the past two years). He’s striking out more than ever before (25.4 percent K-rate versus 19.4 for his career). It’s all going right for Kubel, and the ballpark in Arizona is certainly helping, but we know all good things must come to an end, right?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Justin Masterson (-102, $276K)
Even though he tossed seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays on July 13th Masterson has still allowed 12 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. Yeah, not good. Not just that, he has also walked 12 batters in those three starts including seven the last time he took the hill. That doesn’t sound like someone who has any idea what’s going on right now (Justin walked nine batters in his previous seven starts). On the year a lot is going as expected with Masterson, but he simply has to cut down on the free passes (his 3.93 per nine mark is more than a batter above the level he flashed last season in his breakout effort).

Angel Pagan (-32, $57K)
Pagan killed it in May hitting .375 with eight steals. Not so much since then though. Over his last 41 games he’s gone deep once, stolen just seven bases and hit a mere .235. The result is a slash line of .281/.326/.398, not exactly impressive for a guy who is on pace to fall well short of 10 homers and 65 RBIs. The 17 thefts are nice, but Pagan’s just not a very dynamic option. In search of offense, it’s possible the Giants might even make a trade to bring in another outfield bat in which case Pagan may not be looked at as an every day starter.

Wandy Rodriguez (-59, $234K)
A two-time starter this week, Wandy really needs to show something so that the Astros can move him for peak value before the trade deadline. After allowing nine runs in his last two starts, two loses, his ERA sits at 3.75 for the season. It was 2.49 on June 1st. Wandy has also seen his K-rate plummet this year to 5.99, a horrible mark for a guy who has posted a mark of at least 7.78 each of the past five years. He’s offset the loss of punchouts with a career best walk rate that has led to a 2.86 K/BB ratio which would be a three year high, but that doesn’t help out his fantasy value where we need punchouts (he’s also generating more grounders than ever before at 52 percent of batted balls).

Drew Stubbs (-29, $57K)
Terribly disappointing. That could be the name on the back of Stubbs jersey. At the same time, could it be expectations were too high? The last two years Stubbs averaged 154 games played. Right now he has 77 games played. Multiply 77 by two and you get – 154 games. Therefore, let’s simply double Stubb’s numbers this season and compare them to his 2011 effort.

2011: .243-15-44-92-40 with a .686 OPS
2012: .217-18-48-88-36 with a .644 OPS

Certainly he’s off the pace from last season a wee bit, but honestly, nothing in that 2012 pace would have been thought of as an unreasonable outlook for Stubbs in 2012 given his efforts last season. Maybe the batting average is a bit low, but a hot three weeks could get him back up to .240 and then he’d be right on the same pace as he almost always is (people over at Fleaflicker seem to have mixed feelings about the outfielder). Just some food for thought.

DAILY CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Claims

Players get placed on waivers all the time late in the year. After the trade deadline passes at the end of July, players can still be dealt, but instead of it being a sure thing, there are a lot more hoops to jump through in order for a player to switch squads. In essence, here’s what happens.

(1) A player is exposed to waivers.

(2) Teams have the chance to claim the player in order of their record from worst to best.

(3) Once a team claims a player they have a 48 hours to work out a deal.

(4) If a deal is not worked out, then the player stays on his current team and can be “pulled back” from waivers with no penalty. If that player is put on waivers yet again, he cannot be pulled back a second time.

(5) If a player passes through waivers with no team putting in a claim, then that player can freely be traded to any team in the league.

For more on the process see Jayson Stark’s explanation.

Though waiver claims are private, the information always leaks out. Current claims would appear to be in place for the following players.

Heath Bell: Claimed by the Giants
The Giants have Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson on the DL. The team has expressed optimism that both arms will be fine in short order (Romo could even return by the end of the week), but this move suggests otherwise. Still, it should be pointed out that teams often put in claims on players to “block” that player from going to another team. The Giants could merely have claimed Bell with no intention of working out a deal for him just so teams with better records than them (i.e. the Diamondbacks) wouldn’t have the chance to claim Bell. It could also mean that there is serious concern about the condition of Wilson’s elbow.

Jason Kubel: Unknown Claim
Kubel has appeared in only 80 game because of injury but that hasn’t diminished his on field work that sees his current “pace” as .290-18-90 over 160 games. Kubel has hit only .252 over his last 103 at-bats, but he would bring a strong bat to the outfield of a contending team. He’s even hit lefties well with year with a .829 OPS, a shockingly impressive number for a guy who owns a .692 OPS against left handers in his career.

Carlos Pena: Unknown Claim
In each of the past four years Pena has hit 28 homers with 84 RBIs. This season he has 23 homers and 67 RBI. However, he’s also hitting .223 this year, though that isn’t at all unexpected given his batting average numbers the past three years (.247, .227 and .196). He has the power to hit it out of any yard, and he knows how to take a walk which has led to a career .350 OBP, a rather impressive number for a guy who has hit .239 in more than 4,000 at-bats.

Wandy Rodriguez: Claimed by the Rockies
The Astros might be willing to move Wandy given that he is owed $37 million the next three years, but they are going to have to get some talent back for him (i.e. this isn’t being viewed as a pure salary dump move). The Rockies could certainly use a big league read arm like Wandy’s to take up the space vacated by the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez out of town.

Jim Thome: Unknown Claim
The perfect wavier-wire claim type, Thome would likely be moved into a reserve role with a contending team which would greatly diminish his fantasy value. Still, as he has shown of late, the guy can still hit as he’s batting .290 with six homers, 21 RBI an a .947 OPS over his last 29 games.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June23, 2011

(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.

(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.

(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).

(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers