Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June19, 2012

(1) R.A. Dickey – is he the best pitcher in baseball?

(2) Mike Trout – is he the best player in fantasy baseball?

(3) Royals OF situation is muddled. When will we see Wil Myers?

(4) Josh Hamilton should return to starting lineup Tuesday.

(5) Jason Marquis, strikeout artist for Padres?

(6) Aaron Hill on fire of late. A top-10 2B?

(7) Astros coaching staff destroys Brett Myers with moronic usage.

(8) Mark Prior — he’s baaaack? Close to return for Red Sox?

By Ray Flowers

Hurlers to Hold?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Are pitchers performing as expected? For that matter, will they continue along their current path? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on five hurlers and let you know whether or not I have faith in them being big time contributors to your fantasy squad the rest of the way.

Madison Bumgarner: The Giants’ young lefty is 0-6 and has started off horribly. Or has he? Each of his last four appearances have resulted in a “quality start” as he has produced a 1.80 ERA an a 1.00 WHIP in that time. MadBum, as he is affectionately known, also has a strong 9.00 K/9 mark and a 4.17 K/BB ratio in those four trips out to the bump. If his current owner is dismayed because of his ghastly record, or middling overall WHIP of 1.42, now is the time to bounce cause Bumgarner is back after a terrible start.

Jeremy Hellickson: The Rays’ rookie has won three straight starts and has gone 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings to drop his ERA to 2.98. All of a sudden, everyone is taking notice again almost as if they forgot that this guy was one of the top-10 prospects in baseball heading into the year. I’m concerned a bit that his K/9 rate is under six, especially when his BB/9 rate is so average (3.57), to say nothing of his poor 0.87 GB/FB. Basically everything he has done to this point suggests a “league average” fantasy performer, despite his wonderful last two outings. Hellickson’s understanding of pitching is elite for someone who hasn’t even thrown 85 innings as a big league so perhaps he will be able to work his way around some less than stellar measurables, but be wary – he’s not yet the pitcher he will be one day.

Phil Humber: The White Sox don’t want to remove Humber from the rotation so they are foolishly going with a 6-man rotation (I yearn for the days of 4-man rotations, so the Sox are going in the wrong direction here). Humber has a 3.18 ERA and 0.95 WHIP so you can see why the Sox want to keep throwing him, but it’s smoke and mirrors. His GB/FB ratio of 0.95 is below league average. His 5.16 K/9 is below big league average. His HR/9 mark of 0.40 is half of his career rate (0.84). His BABIP of .213 is .065 points below his career rate despite a line drive rate that is just one percent off normal. I’m not taking what he has done away from him, I’m just pointing out that it would be a minor miracle if he was able to keep up this level of performance over the course of the season.

Jason Marquis: Really? Do I need to even address Marquis? Quickly – he is a league average pitcher at best. He never strikes anyone out – he hasn’t had a K/9 mark of 6.00 since 2004, and despite his current walk rate of 1.69 per nine, he is completely average in that realm as well (his BB/9 mark has been at least 3.00 every one of his previous 11 seasons). It’s really as simple as that. He’s not the guy who posted a 6.60 ERA last year, but he’s also not going to post his first sub 4.00 ERA since 2004 either. He’s a passable spot starter in a mixed league if you are desperate, but he’s likely to be nothing more than an innings eater in an NL-only format.

Alexei Ogando: One word – phenomenal. Through seven starts Ogando has gone at least six innings each time out, and only once has he allowed more than two earned runs leading to a 2.06 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. However, you don’t need me to tell you that there is no way he can perform this well all season, but here is the proof. (1)  His K/9 rate is down two full batters from last season though he’s somehow managed to lower his walk rate by a batter and a half. (2) His homer rate is triple what it was last season. The two most damning numbers follow. (3) Ogando has a .193 BABIP. There is NO way that number stays that low. I don’t normally make such declarative statements like that, but I’m 100 percent convinced. Why? Somehow Ogando has undershot the big league BABIP average by .100 points even though his line drive rate is two percent above the big league average (21.8 percent). Simply, the dude has been exceedingly lucky. Amazingly so actually. (4) Ogando has a left on base percentage of 95 percent. While the big league average is 70 percent, a couple of guys each year crest 80 percent. Still, 95 percent is a level that is impossible to sustain, a fact that is driven home by his xFIP mark of 3.91. Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Adds

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?

Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).

Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.

Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?

Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.

Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.

Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be  able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).

Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.

Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

Oddity Reigns

I wanted to focus on a few or the oddest news stories of Tuesday so I picked out four of those, while adding a bit of true baseball insight as I discuss the outlook of the next great one behind the dish.

Jason Marquis is 15-12 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Rockies in what has arguably been the best season of his career. Marquis made the All-Star game as he entered the break with 11 victories and a 3.65 ERA, but his numbers have dropped since including a 4-6 record with a 4.46 ERA over his last 13 starts. Even worse, his September work has been downright scary with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP over five starts (he is 1-3). Now comes word that he may not even be on the Rockies playoff roster because of his struggles and the return to health of Aaron Cook. Pretty tough when you win 15 games and don’t get to start a playoff game, let alone suffer the potential indignity of not even being on the active roster. Marquis, by the way, bas won at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons. You know how many hurlers have done that? It’s a pretty small list: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe and Marquis. He may be the worst pitcher on the list, but he is the quintessential innings eater who more often than not gives his team a chance to win.

Pedro Martinez hopes to return from his injured neck on Wednesday. I wonder if manager Charlie Manuel will again let Pedro throw 130 pitches, as he did in the start that really precipitated the injury, or if he will prepare Martinez for the possibility of starting a playoff game that lasts 12 innings by letting him throw 150 pitches.

The Tigers now say that they probably won’t start Rick Porcello again this week in order to save the youngsters arm. After all, he has thrown all of 165 innigns this season, the most in the history of the universe for a young pitcher. The Tigers have a one game lead over the Twins as I write this. You think any Tigers’ fans will care about how old Porcello is, or how many pitches he has thrown this season if they miss out on the playoffs because they decided to rest Porcello, specially since Porcello has a 5-2 record with a 3.19 ERA since the start of August? Seriously, hasn’t this babying of pitchers gone far enough? If a guy can’t go out there an pitch every fifth day, then why bother having him on your roster? It’s obviously completely unfair to compare any modern hurler to Cy Young, but take a gander at his record – he was held to only 147.2 innings as a rookie before the Spiders let him go for 423.2 innings in his second season. In fact, that began a stretch of 4-straight 400-innings seasons and 15-straight years of at least 300-innings. When men were men I guess…

Matt Wieters has all of a sudden gotten good. Not really of course, he has always been good, but his performance has finally started to come around, and in fact he has been tearing it up in September hitting .360 with a .952 OPS in 23 games in the final month of the year. Going back a bit further, Wieters is hitting .308 over his last 59 games to raise his overall mark to .292 in 90 games. That breakout that was predicted, it’s already started. Beware the hype machine heading into 2010, but Wieters clearly looks like a potential top-10 option behind the dish next season.

And lastly —-

Did you see this news report? Junior Seau, you know, the potential HOF linebacker, was at a rodeo this weekend. He entered the ring and was then run over by the bull. He apparently escaped unharmed, but if he can take on a bull why couldn’t he still have enough left to stop a 235 lbs running back?

By Ray Flowers

Woe is Me

Today I’ll touch on a couple of baseball injuries in the Lone Star state, and then delve into two NFL stories that really got my ire over the weekend. Oh yeah, the one bright spot will be a certain right-handed pitcher who you wouldn’t think would be an ace, but in fact he’s almost pitched like one in the early going.

Brandon McCarthy is DL bound yet again, this time due to a stress fracture in his right shoulder (a very similar injury to the one that sidelined him two years ago). Doug Mathis figures to take his roster spot. McCarthy, one of the more dominating starters in the minors in recent times, has just never been able to stay healthy, and even when he has, his performance has merely been average. Through 81 minor league appearance he owns a 3.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and a superb 5.69 K/BB mark. Alas, those numbers did not translate to the bigs as he has posted a 4.61 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9 and 1.74 K/BB rate. Think about that – McCarthy’s strikeout to walk ratio is literally less than one third of what is was in the minor leagues thanks to the fact that he has lost four Ks per nine innings off his dominating minor league number. Oh well. Guess that’s what happens when you share a pitching staff with Kris Benson – guilt by association or something?

Josh Hamilton will undergo surgery for his strained abdomen and miss something like 4-6 weeks. “Given what it could have been, I think it’s probably better than what some of the alternatives are,” general manager Jon Daniels said. Hamilton had no shot to duplicate his numbers from last season (.304-32-130) in my mind, but that doesn’t mean I expected him to be this awful (.240-6-24 in 125 at-bats). As you might guess, this leaves the Rangers in a bit of a pickle on offense, even with the depth they have as they can hardly hope that Andruw Jones suddenly reverts to 2006 form when he hit .262 with 41 home runs and 129 RBI. Still, Jones has had a nice comeback season batting .272/.400/.533 a year after he hit about .100 points below his weight at .158, and he figures to see a few more at-bats along with David Murphy.

Don’t look and just answer me this question – who leads the NL in victories? If you said Johan Santana you would be wrong. If you said Jason Marquis, remarkably, you would be right as he is 8-4 on the year. Only twice in his eight wins have the Rockies scored as many as five runs so it’s not just like he has thrown his glove out there and picked up victories because of massive run support.

Manny Ramirez is still sitting in fifth place amongst NL vote getters for a starting spot in the All-Star game. He is a good deal back of Carlos Beltran some 250,000 votes behind the Mets’ star (Alfonso Soriano is fourth). If you didn’t catch my thoughts on the whole all-star matter, read The All-Star Fallacy.

Now, two football notes…

In case you were tempted to draft Chad Ochocinco, formerly Chad Johnson (and yes, that is his real name), don’t. Listen to the words of that joker in a recent interview with the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I’m not even going to lie to you, I’m going to say it. Last year, the off-season, I didn’t lift one weight, I didn’t run one route, I didn’t exercise,” Chad said. “I didn’t do nothing because my focus was on getting out of a situation I didn’t want to be in. I’m not going to lie.” Gotta give him an “A” for his honesty, but he gets and “F” for life, so I want him nowhere near my fantasy team given the air of negativity that follows around that buffoon. If he had just played football he could have had a glorious career. Now he will have to beg the league to let him in the Hall of Fame.

And lastly, from the IT’s FLAT OUT IMPOSSIBLE file there is this little diddy to mention. Kenny Phillips, a second year safety, is noticeably bigger this year. Here are his own words. “Sixteen pounds since the season ended,” he said. “I don’t know where it came from,” Phillips added, “but I’m proud if it.” I’ll tell you where you got it Kenny, you bought it from some drug dealer in Tijuana. OK, that’s harsh, and of course what I just wrote is mere supposition on my part, I have not one iota of proof that Phillips has done anything illegal to gain size, so let me be clear on that point. But I will tell you flat out that it is IMPOSSIBLE for a professional athlete, already in amazingly physical shape, to gain 16 lbs in a mere five months. Again, let me be clear – it is impossible. Which leads me to my last point. If Phillips was a baseball player he would be the lead story on ESPN as a certain PED user, but he’s a football player so no one, no one, cares. Gotta love the way we castigate baseball players and try to strip them of their dignity for potential PED use while paying absolutely zero attention to the seedy side of football where that stuff certainly goes on. Just keep laying hat on people Kenny, no one will care what you do away from the field as long as you perform on it.

By Ray Flowers