Draft Day Challenge, May 9

I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Thursday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer
2. Carlos Ruiz

Mauer is always a good play, period. When he sees John Lackey on the hill he becomes an elite play. Mauer is 10-for-23 (.435) with a couple of big flies against the righty.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly started out on fire since he returned from his PED suspension, and he faces Patrick Corbin who has been nails this season. Still, Ruiz has always had success against lefties (.801 career OPS) and he’s also shown a nice power stroke against lefties with 16 homers and 76 RBIs over 573 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. James Loney
2. Brandon Belt

It’s time to give Loney some props for what has been a phenomenal start to his 2013 season. Not only is he batting .417 the past week but he’s hitting .385 on the season (who’s talking about that?). He’s only 2-for-9 against R.A. Dickey but the knuckleballer has allowed 14 runs over his last 19 innings while losing 3-straight games.

Belt has been in and out of the lineup, and he’s not exactly been impressive when on the field. So why suggest starting him Thursday? He faces Julio Teheran who has allowed batters to hit .333 off him this season pushing his career mark in 54.1 innings up to .301.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Daniel Murphy

Uggla is warming up at the dish (6-game hitting streak including three homers) and he faces Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t exactly been impressive this season (for more on Vogelsong see Mound Mayhem).

Murphy faces lefty Jeff Locke. Murphy likes to face lefties. He’s batting .327 against them this year, he hit .283 against them last year, and for his career he’s hit .281 with eight homers and 63 RBIs over the course of 427 at-bats.

THIRD BASE
1. Martin Prado
2. Miguel Tejada

Prado has been up and down this season (he’s hitting a mere .227 on the year though he does have 19 runs scored in 33 games). He hasn’t exactly hammered Cole Hamels but he has produced 15 hits while striking out only five times in 55 at-bats.

Two veterans square off when Tejada faces Freddy Garcia. In 58 previous at-bats Tejada has hit .310 with 13 RBIs. He’s also hit well this season with seven hits in 19 at-bats (.368).

SHORTSTOP
1. Maicer Izturis
2. Stephen Drew

Izturis has three hits in seven at-bats against Mr. Price of the Rays. Izturis has also hit well the past week with a .286 mark over his last 21 at-bats.

Drew is finally locked in at the dish, and it’s been a while since we could say that (he’s hit .381 with a homer and five RBIs the past week). He’s had some moderate success against Mr. Correia with a .250 average, one homer and six RBIs, but I just feel good about the matchup. Sue me.

OUTFIELD
1. Shane Victorino
2. Jose Bautista

Normally Kevin Correia gets beaten up by a lot of folks. He’s been impressive this season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the Twins but look for Victorino to have some success given that he’s 6-for-14, a .429 average, with a homer and six RBIs.

Bautista hasn’t looked “right” for a large portion of the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him in what seems like a really tough matchup on paper. Bautista has hit .355 with four homers and seven RBIs in 31 at-bats against David Price who hasn’t looked like himself for much of 2013 either.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. David Price
3. Jason Vargas
4. Doug Fister

Guthrie faces his old team, the Orioles, and he’s dominated the players currently on the roster holding them to a .167 average and .460 OPS over 48 at-bats. With a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season he seems like the proverbial must-start.

Look past the 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP of Price this season and you will note that there is still a lot going on there that is positive. Remove Mr. Bautista from current Jays players and you will find that Price has allowed just two homers in 152 at-bats to the rest of the club and that the rest of the unit is hitting just .230 against him as he has gone 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA against the Jays.

Vargas has held current Astros batters to two hits in 27 at-bats. He also tossed a nine inning shutout in his last outing and has dropped his ERA on the year down to 3.72.

And finally for those looking at early games, Fister is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. He faces the Nationals on the road, and batters have hit just .234 against him on the road this season.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 22: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+13, $108,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Who leads NL third basemen in homers? Pedro Alvarez with 27. He’s also knocked in 74 runners, scored 56 times and, somewhat surprisingly, has posted a .250 batting average to this point of the season. That’s not a number to throw a party for, but after hitting .191 last year in a lost season of 235 at-bats, its a pretty impressive mark (he’s actually hitting .280 with a .888 OPS over his last 45 games). Alvarez is currently on one of his patented hot streaks as he’s racked up 14 hits in his last eight games while going deep four times with eight RBIs over his last five contests.

Derek Holland (+41, $341K)
Winner of his last three starts, Holland has allowed a total of eight runs over those 20 innings (3.60 ERA). Holland has also done a very good job limiting the free passes the past six times he has taken the bump walking a total of eight batters. Moreover, only once in 10 outings has he waked more than two batters. His WHIP is a solid 1.21, reflecting the lack of walks, but his ERA is still mighty elevated at 4.79. The main reason is the long ball. After being taken deep 22 times last year in 32 starts he’s allowed 25 homers in just 23 outings this season including 13 in his last nine starts. Once he starts keeping the ball in the yard his performance could take off.

Ricky Nolasco (+130, $285K)
I have an unhealthy connection with Nolasco, just like you did with that significant other in college who was all wrong for you even though kept going back because the “special time” (wink, wink) you spent together was enough to cover over the crazy (I kinda miss those days actually. Wait, did I just type that? Bad Ray.). I want to turn away from Nolasco, one of the more frustrating pitchers in the game to own, because his skills always say he should be better than the results. Just look at his last four starts: 2 ER, 5 ER, 5 ER, 0 ER (the last effort a nine inning shutout of the Nationals). Still, I have to put my bias aside and offer this note of caution – yes he looked spectacular last time out, but he’s also allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his last nine outings. How close to that fire can you get before your eyebrows are singed off?

Rickie Weeks (+17, $89K)
About frickin’ time Rickie. The older Weeks’ brother has 10 hits in his last four games as he’s also scored an amazing nine times. Over his last 30 contests he’s swiped five bags, scored 26 times and hit .295. That’s about as hot as most players ever get. Weeks certainly has more talent than about 90 percent of the players in the game, but maddening inconsistency is the phrase of the day when it comes to describing his production. Through 472 at-bats this season he’s hit .227 but he’s somehow still on the cusp of a 15/15 season (14/12) with 85 runs a definite possibility (he’s scored 68 times).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Carlos Gonzalez (-29, $86K)
I’ve received a handful of queries from people wondering what they should do with CarGo. My advice, the same as always is – you play him. I know he hit .222 with one homer and two steals in 23 games in August, but you still play him everyday. Come on folks, the guys is hitting .309 with a .903 OPS on the year. He’s just four steals from a 20/20 effort for a third straight season. A strong finish could also net him 100 RBIs and 100 runs (83 and 82 right now). Yes it’s been uneven, but overall Carlos has been the superstar he has been the past two years.

James McDonald (-113, $195K)
I’ve finally had it myself with McDonald. Look, if you had told me five months ago that James would have 12 wins, a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 147 Ks in 161.2 innings this year I would have sign ‘sign me up for that.’ Overall he’s been a fantastic waiver-wire add in mixed leagues. At the same time, he’s been abysmal of late. In two of his last four outings he didn’t allow a single earned run, but in seven of the other eight outings in his last 10 appearances he’s allowed at least four earned runs and five or more runs five times. The result is a second half ERA of 7.14 an a WHIP of 1.70 over 10 starts. That seems an awful lot more than just a minor hiccup, doesn’t it?

Anthony Rizzo (-31, $70K)
Rizzo has done a fine job adapting to big league pitching this season after last year’s disaster (.141 in 128 at-bats). Rizzo is hitting a solid .287 with 10 homers, 31 RBIs and 27 runs scored over 60 games (that’s a 150 game pace for 25 homers, 78 RBIs). However, he’s hit .169 with a .526 OPS against left handed pitching, he batted only .252 in August with a sickly .642 OPS, and he’s gone deep just two times in his last 32 games. He’s young and will certainly figure it out, but he’s struggling right now.

Jason Vargas (-42, $340K)
Just like with McDonald, five months ago a 13 win, 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP effort would have been a strong season for Vargas (career 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with 10 victories being a season-high). However his last two outings have been disastrous as he’s allowed five homers, 11 earned runs (12 total) and last just 8.2 innings. A pathetic couple of outings or the start of an awful finish to the season? Given his career performance, and his skill set, some further regression is still quite possible.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 15: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Bronson Arroyo (+123, $357K in DailyJoust Salary)
Arroyo is one of those guys that you begrudgingly draft, and then more times than not he does something to help you. Though just 4-5 on the season, he’s been pretty solid this year, especially of late. Over his last two starts he’s allowed two runs in 15 innings, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six trips to the hill. His 6.13 K/9 rate is a four year best, and his 1.49 BB/9 rate would be a career best mark,m so it’s fair to ponder how long he will be able to keep his current pace up.

Michael Fiers (+64, $411K)
Since being inserted into the Brewers rotation all this guy has done is have success. In eight appearances this season he’s posted a 2.31 ERA, has a 1.07 WHIP, has a better than 5:1 K/BB ratio, and has 50 Ks in 46.2 innings. Yeah, he’s been that dominating if you hadn’t noticed (he’s only owned in 14 percent of Fleaflicker leagues). Over his last five starts he has allowed three runs, and over his last three outings he’s struck out 26 batters. The only thing keeping him from being a national success story is that 3-3 record, but you can’t blame him for that since he’s pitching about as well as anyone in the game.

Jeff Karstens (+74, $342)
After missing two months due to injury, Karstens is back to getting batters out. Last year he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This year in six starts he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Even better, over his last two starts, both victories, he has allowed two earned runs in 15 innings while, shockingly, piling up 15 Ks. That’s all well and good, but let’s keep it real here. Karstens really isn’t a 3.38 ERA type of guy. His career K-rate is below the league average, and his 6.75 mark this season is a batter an a half above his mark the last two seasons. He’s not likely to hold on to that. He’s also been hit pretty hard despite the outward appearance, and his 2.5 percent HR/F is literally a quarter of normal. Parlay his solid numbers into a better arm if you can.

Jason Vargas (+109, $379)
Through 19 starts Vargas has a 1.15 WHIP. Pretty dang good. He’s also been able to lower his ERA from 4.66 to 4.07 over his last three starts as he’s permitted just four runners to cross the plate. He’s also, and I have no idea how this is possible, posted 22 Ks over his last 23.2 innings. Given that his total of 131 strikeouts last season was a career best it’s pretty obvious that you can’t expect him to continue to punch fellows out at that rate. Solid, but remember that he allowed 23 earned runs in his previous four starts before this nice three game run.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Edwin Jackson (-88, $226K)
After being the good Edwin for 2.5 months the evil EJax as returned with a vengeance. The lasttwo  time times he’s taken the hill he’s been beat around for 15 hits and four walks leading to 12 earned runs in 8.2 innings. Panic stricken owners are vomiting the world over. Still, let’s pull back from the madness for some perspective. Edwin’s best ERA is 3.62 from 2009. It’s currently 3.73. His best WHIP was 1.26 in 2009. It’s currently 1.13. His career K/9 is 6.69. It’s currently 6.75. His career K/BB ratio is 1.87. It’s currently 2.53 (a career best). His HR/9 mark is 0.98. His career mark is 0.99. I know you don’t want to hear it after the two beatings he just took, but the truth is that his overall numbers put him on pace to have the best season of his career, or at worst, exactly what you should have expected.

Jesus Montero (-20, $50K)
Montero has one hit in his last eight games dropping his average .021 points down to .242. Obviously the youngster is totally lost right now. His future is still very bright, but as I often warn when the discussion roles around to youngsters – their path to success isn’t always linear. Sometimes, there are bumps in the road. If Montero wants to turn his recent slide around he would be wise to start with his control of the strikezone. Currently sporting a 0.22 BB/K mark that is half the big league average, he’d be wise to start working that count a bit better. Of note. On the season he’s hit a mere .203 against righties with four homers in 192 at-bats while he’s murdered lefties to the tune of a .326 average and four homers in just 89 at-bats.

Ervin Santana (-153, $189)
How is this still happening? “This” is all the homers Santana is allowing which are simply tanking his season. A career 1.18 homers allowed per nine innings kinda fella, that number is in the stratosphere this season at 1.74 per nine. Given that massive increase your initial reaction is likely ‘he must be giving up a lot more fly balls this season.’ That’s a fair assumption, but it’s totally wrong. Right now Santana has a 33 percent fly ball rate. That would be the lowest total of his career. Right now Santana has a 48 percent ground ball rate. That would be the highest total of his career. ‘But Ray, that makes no sense. How is he giving up so many homers then?’ The answer is a near doubling of his HR/F mark from 10.3 percent for his career, and never worse than 12.8 percent in a season, to 18.9 percent right now. That number simply has to come down, doesn’t it? He’d also be well served to throw more strikes (his 3.66 BB/9 mark would be his first season over 3.05 since 2007).

Luke Scott (-19, $72K)
One of the streakiest hitters on the planet, Scott has been abysmal for a long while now. How bad? Since June 2nd Scott  has a total of five hits. He was hurt for a while, but that’s still just five hits in 55 at-bats (.091). As a result he’s hitting .200 in 220 at-bats for the Rays. Sure he has 11 homers and 42 RBIs, strong totals, but can you really live with that batting average drain in your lineup right now? Don’t worry, he’ll probably have a week where he has 12 hits and four homers soon – it’s just how he rolls.

DAILY CONTEST

Today, and every day, you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your wild party on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Dunn has seen his average dip from .240 to .214 over his past nine games though he has gone deep three times in that time. However, he has racked up 17 Ks (wow). So why mention him for today when he’s facing a lefty, his career long Kryptonite? For whatever reason he kills Wandy hitting .435 with two homers in 23 at-bats.

Raul Ibanez vs. Johan Santana: Ibanez has slumped down to .255 from .270 a little over a week ago, but Mr. Santana, you know Mr. No-Hitter, might be the tonic he needs to turn things around. Ibanez has racked up 16 hits and 10 RBI in 36 at-bats against Johan leading to a .348 batting average. By the way, Derek Jeter also lights Johan up with a .455 average in 33 at-bats.

Rickie Weeks vs. Edinson Volquez: Weeks has been in the discussion for the worst every day player in the NL hitting .160 with a .582 OPS. He’s also gone hitless, 0-for-12, in his last three games. So pull the trigger on starting him Friday? Why not. Against Volquez has has gone 6-for-12 with two homers.

*** Avoid Michael Young who has hit just .232 with a .601 OPS against Barry Zito in 82 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Felix Doubront vs. Phillies: In 27 innings at home this year he has 33 Ks, and over his last five starts he has allowed two or fewer runs each time for a total of eight runs allowed. The Nationals are near the bottom of the league with a .241 batting average an are also in the bottom five in baseball in runs scored (209).

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Marlins: I can’t always explain how he gets it done, but the bottom line is that he does. In 50 career starts he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding batter to a .218 average. Over his last nine outings this season he’s allowed two or one earned runs seven times with the other two outings resulting in just three runners crossing the plate.

Shaun Marcum vs. Padres: It might seem obvious to start any pitcher against the Padres, but there are also plenty o’ numbers to suggest it’s the right move with Marcum. Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB in three starts. Last two starts this year against the Dodgers and Pirates: 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.5 K/BB ratio over 14 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Damon vs. Kyle Lohse: When he isn’t busy making babies with his hot wife, Damon is lashing out hits against the righty from St. Louis. Damon has six hits in 16 at-bats against Lohse leading to a .375 average. Yes, that’s also a picture of Damon’s wife. I wouldn’t care if I got a hit either.

Prince Fielder vs. Bronson Arroyo: On paper this doesn’t look anything like a matchup that favors the Tigers’ slugger. Prince has hit just .238 in 42 at-bats against the righty from Cincy, but there is one obvious reason to play Fielder – power. Fielder has gone deep four times against Arroyo, and since the start of last season Bronson has given up a rather insane total of 54 long balls in 43 starts.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Gio Gonzalez: It’s only 11 at-bats of a matchup, but Youkilis has six hits, including a homer, leading to a .545 AVG an a 1.402 OPS. He’s also hit .303 with a .909 OPS at home in his career, and that’s over 482 games.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Matt Moore vs. Marlins: As a club the Fish are batting .233 with a .307 OBP and .401 SLG against left handed pitching, numbers that all lag behind the average big league hitter this season (.252/.318/.402). Moore has also seemingly started to find his groove as he’s allowed a total of five runs in his last three starts and he has 20 Ks over the 17.2 innings.

Chris Sale vs. Astros: It’s almost like taking candy from a baby, isn’t it? Sale has allowed a total of four runs over his last four starts as he has punched out 36 batters while issuing only seven walks in 4-straight victories. If things go according to plan, the Astros don’t stand a chance.

Jason Vargas vs. Dodgers: It’s a brutal matchup on paper as Vargas has to face the best left-handed pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. Owner of a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year, Vargas has flat out dominated at home this year with a 1.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts and in 49 career games at Safeco he is 18-16 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

CONTESTS

It’s Friday, and that means it’s time to win a few bucks thanks to DailyJoust.com. Sign up for a Free Roll and try your chances, or you can join any other number of daily fantasy baseball games that include home run derby’s, survivor pools and a chance to win a trip to the 2012 MLB All-Star game.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers 

Daily Joust – Wk 9: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Darwin Barney (+5, $92K in DailyJoust salary)
Barney is boring. There, I said it. Still, he’s had four games in his last nine outings with at least two hits as he’s boosted his average from .259 to .275. Because he’s been getting on base a lot, he’s also scored six times in his last six games. Barney is no great shakes but he’s hit .276 over his last 707 at-bats even though he has no power (five homers) and averge speed (12 steals). More of an injury fill-in than anything else.

Mark Trumbo (+7, $120K)
It all looks amazing right now. Trumbo is hitting .331 while being on pace for 30 homers. Wanna bet he doesn’t get there? Trumbo has blown away even the most optimistic of expectations, but there are still a few things here worth noting. His 1.16 GB/FB ratio is average. His 21 percent K-rate isn’t great. His 0.34 BB/K mark isn’t worth anything. His .378 BABIP is not a sustainable pace, not with an 18 percent line drive rate. It’s just not. I’ve said/written it many times before, but the guy just isn’t a .300 hitter, even with his impressive 46 game run to start the year (the people at Fleaflicker aren’t buying it either).

Justin Smoak (+8, $118K)
Finally. After being a near automatic out for a couple of years, Smoak has finally started to hit like the guy who was drafted 11th overall in 2008. In his last nine games Smoak has peppered the seats with five balls, driven in 14 runs and scored nine times on his way to raising his OPS from .568 to .703. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves we should still note that his slash line is terrible (.283/.293/.409), as is his BB/K mark (0.33), and he continues to be completely ineffective against lefties (.214 with one homer in 56 at-bats). I’m heartened by his recent work, but he’s still got a long way to go to prove he should be in the active lineup without question the rest of the way.

Jason Vargas (+41, $277K)
Through 12 starts he has a 3.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, pretty heady work for a fella who owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for his career. Can he sustain his performance? His K/9 mark is bad (5.74) but same as always (5.72). His 2.50 K/BB ratio isn’t awful, but it’s still just a bit above the league rate (2.34). His 0.94 GB/FB rate is slightly better than the 0.74 mark he owns for his career but still well below the league average (1.10 or so). His BABIP of .223 isn’t likely to be a sustainable pace either, not for a guy with a career .276 mark who has never finished a year under .272. This is as good as it gets with Vargas and he’s likely to slip up moving forward.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Bobby Abreu (-11, $63K)
Abreu started off his Dodgers career on fire. Predictably, things have slowed since. Oh he’s still hitting .310 with a .437 OBP in 26 games with the Dodgers, simply fantastic production from the aging vet, but he has a mere seven hits in his last 10 games during which time he has scored a mere three runs. There’s still room to go down here making Abreu nothing more than an NL-only option.

Christian Friedrich (-20, $188K)
Three wins in five starts is fine, but after dominating the Padres and Giants in his first two starts it’s gotten ugly. Over his last three outings Christian has allowed 16 runs over 16 innings. My analytical mind tells me that he’s posted an ERA of 9.00 in that time (how impressed are you – I didn’t even need my calculator). The 15 Ks in those three starts give him an impressive 32 in 29 innings, but they come at such a high price that it isn’t anywhere near worth it right now.

Alex Gordon (-21, $55K)
Hitting a mere .244, that is the highest his average has been since May 16th, Gordon has a hit in 7-straight games an in each of the last four games he has produced a double. He still has only one steal on the year, and his total of four homers is boring as all get out, but at least he has picked up the pace of late. Hitting just .219 with a .686 OPS in the leadoff spot this season (73 at-bats), Gordon really seems to like it when he is batting second in the order (.343/.425/.557 in 70 at-bats).

Jarrod Parker (-27, $181K)
Through seven starts Parker has a 2.88 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Athletics. Remove his awful outing against the Giants and he’s gone six starts without allowing more than two earned runs. He has been difficult as all hell to hit with a .228 BAA, but the walks are a big time concern. In four of his last five outings he’s issued at least four free passes, and sooner or later those catch up with you (his 29:21 K/BB mark is awful – 1.38). He’s a 2-start pitcher this week but matches with the Rangers and D’backs would seem to suggest that he’s not exactly someone you should roll out there without worrying about.

Michael Saunders (-8, $68K)
Yes he’s hitting only .257, and suiting up for the Mariners doesn’t exactly make you someone that anyone is rushing out to add, but have you noticed that he’s on pace to go 15/25 this year? He’s got to cut down the K’s though, he has 52 in 183 at-bats, or that .257 average of his might dip even further, especially considering that his BABIP of .331 is .062 points above his career mark. An effective, under the radar option that has holes in his game.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free cashola.

By Ray Flowers

Happy V-Day

In honor of Valentine’s Day – and for those of you who are without a sweetie don’t worry, I feel your pain – I thought I would review the big league pitchers who have last names that start with “V.” I know, how original right? Here are my thoughts on their value for 2011.

Jose Valverde, Tigers: Consistently going off the board as a top-12 closing option, Valverde has at least 25 saves in each of the past four seasons – something only five others have done (Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez). Valverde also has more K’s than innings pitched in his career (533 in 449) while posting a WHIP under 1.20 in each of the past four years. Injuries are always a concern, as is his explosive personality, but the guy still brings it (career .205 batting average against).

Jason Vargas, Mariners: This hurler had a solid set of ratios last year with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 192.2 innings, helping many a club to win a fantasy championship given that he was a waiver-wire pickup. At the same time, a repeat seems unlikely. His K/9 rate was just 5.42 leading to a slightly below average 2.15 K/BB mark (league in 2010: 2.17), and his 0.77 GB/FB ratio is a concern. That last mark troubles me. Somehow Vargas allowed 47 percent of batted balls to go skyward, a high mark. If that happens again, he’ll have no shot keeping his HR/9 mark below 1.00 (it was 0.84). Look at it this way – his HR/F rate last year was 6.1 percent, this after 3-straight years of at least 11.7 percent. Tread carefully.

Javier Vazquez, Marlins: He was never going to have success in the pressure cooker with the Yankees, or in the American League. Will he rebound from his 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP now that he is back in the NL? I think he has to considering that he owns a career ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.26. However, I’m concerned that his K/9 dropped to 6.92, the first time its been below 8.00 since 2004 (when he was also with the Yankees). Add in the fact that his average fastball dipped below 91 mph for the first time since 2004 (it was 88.7) and that his BB/9 rate was 3.72 (career 2.42), and I’m not expecting a full rebound, just a moderate one.

Jonny Venters, Braves: Most assume that Craig Kimbrel will open the year as the closer for the Braves, but Venters figures to be heavily involved in the late innings. Venters, a lefty, dominated as a rookie last year with a 10.08 K/9 mark, though he needs to work on the walks (4.23 per nine). If he can cut down the walks while maintaining his insanely high 4.15 GB/FB ratio, he’ll be a late inning ace for years to come.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: An ace, it would be a surprise if he fell outside the top-15 amongst starters and the top-75 overall. Verlander has been a complete beast the last two years after a bit of a hiccup in 2008 as he has 37 wins (4th in baseball), 488 strikeouts (2nd in baseball behind Tim Lincecum’s 492), a 9.46 K/9 mark (6th in baseball) and a 3.41 ERA (22nd in baseball). Told you he was a stud.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: He reportedly turned down a 4-year deal because he didn’t think the Reds offered enough money (he is playing on a $1.6 million 1-year deal). While he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, there continue to be concerns about his ability to throw strikes (he has a walk per nine rate well in excess of five the past two years). His arm is dynamic, he’ll strike out a guy per inning, and if he throws strikes we already know what the upside looks like (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206 Ks in 196 IP in 2008).

Chris Volstad, Marlins: One game over .500 (27-26) over nearly 420 career innings, Volstad is a ground ball hurler who depends on his defense and the ball ending up in his fielder’s gloves. He won’t strike out many (5.62 K/9 career), his walk rate is merely average (3.33 per nine), his HR/9 mark is average (1.05) as is his BABIP (.289 in his career). That’s a whole lot of average. Volstad can eat innings, and he is still young, but there is little in his pitching line that suggests he will ever be a top echelon arm.

Who is the AL Cy Young?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

Who is the NL Cy Young?

AL Cy Young Discussion

Clay Buchholz: He battled for the AL lead in ERA all year before finishing second with a 2.33 mark. He was consistent all year long with a 2.45 ERA an a 1.25 WHIP in the first half an a 2.20 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP in the second. However, his candidacy will be hurt by the fact that he made only 28 starts covering 173.2 innings, and by the fact that he had only 120 strikeouts on the year. He was also the second best pitcher on his own team (more on that in a bit).

Trevor Cahill: The young A’s righty led baseball in BABIP this year. That obviously helped him to produce an out of nowhere season that defies traditional analysis. Cahill had just 118 Ks in 196.2 innings leading to a 1.87 K/BB ratio which is worse than the big league average. He somehow still managed to go 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP because, at least in part, that he was so hard to produce a hit off of (.220 BAA).

Felix Hernandez: Can he win the award with a record of 13-12 (no pitcher has won the award in a full season with less than 15 victories – and I’m not counting closers so you can save the angry emails)? King Felix led baseball with a 2.27 ERA. He led the AL with 249.2 IP. He was the hardest pitcher in the Junior Circuit to hit (.212 BAA). No pitcher could match his 30 quality starts. He was second in the AL with 232 Ks an a 1.06 WHIP. So how was he 13-12? Blame on offense that gave him the worst runs support in the AL at 3.75 runs per nine innings (teammate Jason Vargas was second with a 4.48 mark).

Cliff Lee: He split his season between the Mariners and the Rangers. He was phenomenal with and 8-3 record, 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts with the Rangers. Oh yeah, he walked six batters in that time. He wasn’t anywhere near as effective with the Rangers as he battled through injury (4-6, 3.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), but his overall numbers were still tremendous including a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and an almost unbelievable total of 18 walks in 28 starts. He has little chance to win the award given his record (12-9) and the fact that he was better in the first half (voters often have short memories).

Jon Lester: Finished just short of 20 victories with 19 including eight wins in his last 10 appearances, but Lester firmly established himself as one of the elite left-handed starters in the game. He posted a season (3.25 ERA, 225 K, 1.20 WHIP in 208 IP) that was damn near identical to his 2009 effort (3.41 ERA, 225 Ks, 1.23 WHIP in 203.1 IP). He was great, and could be helped by the fact that he pitches for the Red Sox.

David Price: The league’s third best in ERA at 2.72, Price had a solid 1.19 WHIP in his first full season in the big leagues (208.2 IP). Price fell just short of 20 with 19 wins, and he racked up an impressive total of 188 Ks. Unlike Lester, Price will be hurt by the fact that he plays for the Rays since no one on a national scene pays much attention to games played in the Sunshine State.

CC Sabathia: All he does is take the ball and produce wins year after year. CC was second in the league with 237.2 IP as he produced a major league best 21 victories. Sabathia also matched Price with a 1.19 WHIP while he snuck slightly ahead with 197 Ks. Of course, his WHIP was slightly higher at 3.18. Sabathia has been in the bigs for 10 years, and every one of those seasons he has lasted at least 180.1 IP while winning at least 11 games. The monstrous lefty is as consistently dominating as any starter in baseball.

Jered Weaver: All he did was lead baseball in strikeouts with 233, a career best. Weaver, like King Felix, was snubbed by his team as Jered went only 13-12 despite a 3.01 ERA (5th in the AL) and a 1.07 WHIP (3rd). Weaver also walked only 54 batters on the year leading to a 4.31 K/BB mark which just so happened to be second in the AL to Mr. Lee and third in all of baseball.

It will never happen, voters just won’t be able to look past the low win total, but the best pitcher in the AL this season was King Felix.

8- Clay Buchholz
7- Trevor Cahill
6- David Price
5- Cliff Lee
4- Jon Lester
3- Jered Weaver
2- CC Sabathia
1- Felix Hernandez

By Ray Flowers