Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

Pitcher Profiles

photo © 2011 Richard Eriksson | more info (via: Wylio)

Pitching is the name of the game, and you can never have too much of it. I thought I’d go around the league and take a look at a handful of pitchers that toed the rubber Wednesday night. Here are my thoughts.

Kyle Drabek: 3-4, 4.69 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.69 WHIP in 63.1 IP
The kid hit rock bottom Wednesday as he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. At this point it’s hard to trust him in an AL-only league, let alone a mixed league setup. The primary culprit has been a complete inability to throw the ball over the plate. Over his last 10 starts he’s walked less than three guys only one time, and six times he’s walked at least four batters. On the year his BB/9 rate is a ghastly 6.40. My goodness, he has two more walks than strikeouts on the campaign. The guy still has a bright future, but your a certified masochist if you’re continuing to roll him out there each start.

Daniel Hudson: 6-5, 4.22 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 79 IP
Hudson has won his last three decisions, and six of his last seven for the surging D’backs. Hudson has also thrown at least six innings each of the last eight times he’s taken the hill, and six of those outings have been “quality.” Unfortunately he has been beaten around his last two outings allowing nine earned runs in 13 innings. On the plus side he allowed only a single walk in those two outings. On the year he has a solid 7.63 K/9 mark, and his 3.53 K/BB ratio also portends a lot of success when his BABIP mark recedes (it’s currently .338). See if you can use his poor last two outings to snatch him away from his current owner.

Colby Lewis: 5-5, 3.48 ERA, 55 Ks, 1.15 WHIP in 75 IP
Three weeks ago in Buy or Sell – AL Version, I suggested buying Lewis. Since that time he has posted a 1.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 3.43 K/BB ratio in four starts, so after a rough start to the year Lewis has totally turned things around. He isn’t walking anyone, he’s only issued 10 walks in his last seven starts, and he has thrown a “quality” start up in six of his last seven outings. Moreover, dating back to the start of last season when he returned to the States from a stay in Japan, Lewis has thrown 276 innings posting a 1.18 WHIP, the 22nd best mark in baseball for a pitcher who has tossed at least 200-innings in that time.

Brett Myers: 2-4, 4.82 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.47 WHIP in 74.2 IP
Myers had a magical season last year. Not so much this year. His trademark consistency from last year has  pretty much vanished. Oh he’s throwing his innings, at least six in all but two of his 11 starts (the other two times he fell an out short), but there has been no consistency in his performance. Well that might not be fair either. He’s been consistently below average of late allowing at least four earned runs in six of his last eight outings. It’s the same old story with Myers as the culprit has been the long ball. His current mark of 1.81 is preposterously high, more than double his 0.80 mark from last season and more than half a homer more than his career rate (1.29). You have to think the homer total will regress moving forward, but even so his xFIP which normalizes for homers is just 4.24. Be wary.

Brian Matusz: 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in 5.2 IP
Matusz made his long awaited 2011 debut Wednesday night after being sidelined the first two months of the year because of an intercostal strain. Everyone is jazzed about the young lefty after his impressive second half last year that included a 7-3 record, 3.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He could certainly replicate those numbers this season, but remember he is coming off injury, is young, and pitches in a wicked tough division – the AL East.

Javier Vazquez: 3-4, 6.02 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.54 WHIP in 58.1 IP
Vazquez has been awful for most of the season. However, he seems to have somewhat turned the corner. On May 15th, in his darkest hour, Vazquez owned a 7.55 ERA and seemed destined to lose his starting role with the Marlins. Since that time he’s made three starts, lasted at least six innings each time out, and posted an ERA of 2.84 with a WHIP of 0.79. Moreover, he’s whiffed 15 while issuing only three free passes. Problem solved eh? It’s far too early to say that, but given his track record of success, and we’re talking about more than a decades worth, perhaps this wily veteran should be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his recent work – maybe he has it in him to once again be a useful pitcher.

And one rookie who didn’t pitch Wednesday…

Jordan Lyles: 0-0, 2.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in seven IP
The Astros top pitching prospect and #42 overall prospect according to Baseball America, Jordan had a strong first outing, a great effort actually for a guy who can’t even legally pull back on a bottle of Captain Morgan (and who doesn’t want to do that on a daily basis?). At the same time, it would be wise to keep expectations in check. Lyles is only 20 years old and has only 16 games of experience at Triple-A where he posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He knows how to pitch, and likely will have a long and successful career, but Lyles just doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation fantasy arm.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 16, 2011

Photo By Loren Javier

I’m in a 10-team NL-only league. Which of the two sides in this deal would you prefer: Javier Vazquez ($16) or Marlon Byrd ($11) and Bud Norris ($3)?
– Jeff, Raleigh, North Carolina

An aging veteran hurler or, for virtually the same cost, a solid outfielder and an up and coming flame thrower who often has no idea where he is throwing the ball.

From 2000-09, Vazquez was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed at least 195 innings, with 10 wins and 150 strikeouts each season. That streak came to a crashing halt in 2010. He did win 10 games, but he tossed only 157.1 innings and punched out a mere 121 batters. Did he simply wear down from years of use?

In his career, Vazquez’s average fastball has been 91 mph, but last year that number dropped to 88.7. Less heat equaled less Ks and his K/9 rate of 6.92 was more than a full batter below his career rate of 8.07. Last year was also the first time the mark was below 8.00 since 2004. Javier also had a walk rate of 3.72, his first season with a mark over 3.00 since, get this, the 20th century (1999). On the plus side he is back in the NL where he owns a career ERA of 4.02 with a WHIP of 1.24. He’s also going to pitch his home games in a park that helps to hold down the homers, an important factor for a hurler who has allowed 1.20 HR/9 in his career. Will the return to the Senior Circuit, combined with the better home ball yard, be enough to return him to glory?

Byrd isn’t worthy of being leaned on mixed leagues, but he is just the type of performer that helps to win league specific setups. Only once in his five seasons of at least 400 at-bats has he hit more than 12 homers, knocked in more than 70 runs or scored more than 70 times, but over the last four seasons an average Byrd season has produced a 5×5 line of .294-13-70-70-6. Moreover, the last four years he has never hit below .283. There could be some concern about everyday playing time if everyone stays healthy in the Cubs’ outfield, but there isn’t much doubt that if Byrd is given 500 at-bats that he will once again be a solid producer, even if none of his numbers jump off the page.

As for Bud Norris, I’ve already written about his outlook for 2011 in Which Pitchers Should I Target? Let me sum up my thoughts – he throws gas  (he was 10th in baseball last year in K/9 amongst hurlers who tossed 100-innings at 9.25), batters can’t hit him when he is on (.235 BAA in the second half), but he can lose the strike zone as well as any hurler in the league (4.51 BB/9). There is concern about his secondary stuff which might lead to him eventually being moved to the bullpen, and he hasn’t looked good in spring (10.29 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in three appearances), but that arm is dynamic – there just aren’t that many starters in the league who can legitimately rack up a strikeout per inning.

So which side “wins” here? The one with two players. Byrd isn’t an MVP candidate, but he is a solid, stable performer who can boost any NL-only offense. While Vazquez has history on his side, the depths he fell to last season, coupled with ongoing concerns about the mph on his fastball this spring (he’s still unable to reach 90 mph on most of his fastballs), point to him being nothing more than an average hurler, and a somewhat expensive one in this setup. I’d take a chance on the fire balling arm of Norris and the stable production of Byrd, and then go and spend the extra three dollars on another hurler.

I have a nine batters and Lester as my only starting pitcher. I was wondering if I should still be seeking out quality bats for backups or potential future keepers, or should I start grabbing quality pitching?
– Andrew, Topsham, Maine

The age old question…

I’m on record saying I’m in favor of waiting on pitching. In fact, I wrote an article about why, in many cases, it makes a lot of sense to let others dive into pitching early called Ready for the Journey? In that piece I delve into the 2010 season and look at all the hurlers who “failed” to live up to expectations, as well as highlighting those guys which came out of nowhere to have strong fantasy seasons. Of course, you could make up similar lists for offense, but the point is really this – pitchers’ performances tend to vary more from one season to the other than do hitters. Also, pitchers are at a much higher risk of a catastrophic injury ending their season (Adam Wainwright) than are hitters. Therefore, in a vacuum, it often makes more sense to go for the elite hitters early – there will always be pitchers available later.

Think of it this way.

There are five starters and 30 major league teams. That’s 150 starters that can be drafted. Each team also has a closer and a setup man that probably should be drafted in standard leagues. That’s another 60 pitchers. Add those numbers together and we can say there are 210 pitchers that probably shouldn’t scare the hell out of you on draft day. If you are in a 12 team league that starts nine pitchers, then there will be 108 pitchers active in any week. Now, tell me, do you think if there are 210 pitchers who are decent, but only 108 who are starting in a fantasy league at any one time (just over 51 percent of the hurlers mentioned), that you should be able to put together a decent pitching staff if you wait on hurlers?

I’m not sticking to this “plan” slavishly in any draft. In general, it makes a lot of sense to have one anchor starting pitcher and one reliever in your first 10 selections in a 12 team draft. If that makes you nervous you can go with two starters and a reliever in your first 10 picks. At the same time, there have been many a draft where I came out of the first 10 rounds with one hurler.

The answer to the question is that there is no answer that suffices in all situations. Honestly, it’s about performance, risk and value. If your league is going super heavy early on pitching you can either (a) jump into the mix or (b) build a juggernaut on offense. An intimate understanding of the player pool is key here as it will help you to know when you simply must get involved in the hurler run. To help you to understand what point that might be, I’d direct you to The Strikeout: Starters, as well as the above linked to piece (Which Pitchers Should I Target?) on how to properly evaluate pitchers in the fantasy game.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Happy V-Day

In honor of Valentine’s Day – and for those of you who are without a sweetie don’t worry, I feel your pain – I thought I would review the big league pitchers who have last names that start with “V.” I know, how original right? Here are my thoughts on their value for 2011.

Jose Valverde, Tigers: Consistently going off the board as a top-12 closing option, Valverde has at least 25 saves in each of the past four seasons – something only five others have done (Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez). Valverde also has more K’s than innings pitched in his career (533 in 449) while posting a WHIP under 1.20 in each of the past four years. Injuries are always a concern, as is his explosive personality, but the guy still brings it (career .205 batting average against).

Jason Vargas, Mariners: This hurler had a solid set of ratios last year with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 192.2 innings, helping many a club to win a fantasy championship given that he was a waiver-wire pickup. At the same time, a repeat seems unlikely. His K/9 rate was just 5.42 leading to a slightly below average 2.15 K/BB mark (league in 2010: 2.17), and his 0.77 GB/FB ratio is a concern. That last mark troubles me. Somehow Vargas allowed 47 percent of batted balls to go skyward, a high mark. If that happens again, he’ll have no shot keeping his HR/9 mark below 1.00 (it was 0.84). Look at it this way – his HR/F rate last year was 6.1 percent, this after 3-straight years of at least 11.7 percent. Tread carefully.

Javier Vazquez, Marlins: He was never going to have success in the pressure cooker with the Yankees, or in the American League. Will he rebound from his 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP now that he is back in the NL? I think he has to considering that he owns a career ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.26. However, I’m concerned that his K/9 dropped to 6.92, the first time its been below 8.00 since 2004 (when he was also with the Yankees). Add in the fact that his average fastball dipped below 91 mph for the first time since 2004 (it was 88.7) and that his BB/9 rate was 3.72 (career 2.42), and I’m not expecting a full rebound, just a moderate one.

Jonny Venters, Braves: Most assume that Craig Kimbrel will open the year as the closer for the Braves, but Venters figures to be heavily involved in the late innings. Venters, a lefty, dominated as a rookie last year with a 10.08 K/9 mark, though he needs to work on the walks (4.23 per nine). If he can cut down the walks while maintaining his insanely high 4.15 GB/FB ratio, he’ll be a late inning ace for years to come.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: An ace, it would be a surprise if he fell outside the top-15 amongst starters and the top-75 overall. Verlander has been a complete beast the last two years after a bit of a hiccup in 2008 as he has 37 wins (4th in baseball), 488 strikeouts (2nd in baseball behind Tim Lincecum’s 492), a 9.46 K/9 mark (6th in baseball) and a 3.41 ERA (22nd in baseball). Told you he was a stud.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: He reportedly turned down a 4-year deal because he didn’t think the Reds offered enough money (he is playing on a $1.6 million 1-year deal). While he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, there continue to be concerns about his ability to throw strikes (he has a walk per nine rate well in excess of five the past two years). His arm is dynamic, he’ll strike out a guy per inning, and if he throws strikes we already know what the upside looks like (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206 Ks in 196 IP in 2008).

Chris Volstad, Marlins: One game over .500 (27-26) over nearly 420 career innings, Volstad is a ground ball hurler who depends on his defense and the ball ending up in his fielder’s gloves. He won’t strike out many (5.62 K/9 career), his walk rate is merely average (3.33 per nine), his HR/9 mark is average (1.05) as is his BABIP (.289 in his career). That’s a whole lot of average. Volstad can eat innings, and he is still young, but there is little in his pitching line that suggests he will ever be a top echelon arm.

Big Names, Big Production

Wednesday is always an odd day. Memories of last weekend are fading, and you’re still days away from heading out on the town with your homies to cause some trouble, so you’re basically just laying in wait for something to happen. What I’m saying is that it’s a no-man’s kinda day. As a result, it’s hardly a shock that there is no real theme with the players I’m going to discuss other than the fact that they have all been performing pretty well of late.

Josh Hamilton is a beast. How crazy good has he been? Since the start of June he has hit .434 with 14 homers and 47 RBI in 49 games. Those are numbers that wind up leading you to the MVP award. Sick.

Matt Garza, who has come a long way since he was a Twins’ rookie wearing a My Little Pony backpack (yeah, that’s him in the photo above),  tossed the fifth no-hitter of the season on Monday night. Do you know what the record is for one season? In 1884, yeah it was a totally different game back then I know, there where eight no-hitters (the last time there were five no-hitters in a season was 1991). Moreover, since the Rays’ fell in no-hitters twice this season, they became only the third team in baseball history to be involved in three no-hitters in a single season. The other two teams were the White Sox and the St. Louis Browns — in 1917. As for Garza, he has offered a slight up tick in his performance compared to last season. He is 11-5 and that is great, though his ERA is up a smidge from 3.95 last year to 4.06 this season, while his WHIP is a virtual match (1.26 to 1.24). The only real negative in the fantasy game is that he has seen his K-rate dwindle substantially from 8.38 per nine last season down to 6.78 which is below his 7.19 career mark. If he were to pick up the whiffs we could be looking at a top-25 pitcher the rest of the way.

The single season triple record is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912. No on in baseball even has nine triples this season.

Brandon Morrow – welcome to the world of fantasy relevance. On May 31st he had a 6.00 ERA and was having a devil of a time throwing strikes. Since that point he has made nine starts going just 3-2, but his ratios have improved dramatically. His WHIP has gone down to 1.29, a big step for a guy who had a 1.58 mark over his first 11 appearances, and his ERA has plummeted down to 3.21. Why the success? He’s maintained his K/9 mark mark with an impressive 9.48 mark but his walk rate has tanked – which in this case is obviously a great thing. After walking 34 batters in his first 57 innings – good for a 5.37 BB/9 mark – he has walked a mere 19 hitters in his last 56 innings leading to a 3.05 mark. Basically he has gone from being Oliver Perez to being a better than big league pitcher in terms of his control. The Blue Jays might limit his workload as the season wears on, and his final season numbers likely won’t look that great, but don’t forget about how good Morrow can be when he’s throwing strikes when you do participate in your draft in 2011.

Javier Vazquez has been a massive letdown this season with a 9-7 record, a 4.54 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, should he be viewed that way? He was never going to repeat his performance from last season (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), especially when he went to the AL. Also, his production has been a near match for his work with the Yankees back in 2004 (14-10, 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). At the same time if you were an astute wheeler and dealer, you may have come out way ahead here. Through six starts this season he was 1-4 with a 8.10 ERA in a truly dreadful start to the year. However, he has been nails since that point going 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 6.90 K/9 mark. That’s difference making production from the righty. Don’t be afraid to look beyond a player’s season long numbers when you’re trying to figure out his value for the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May3, 2010

(1) Alex Gordon to work on versatility in minors.

(2) Brad Lidge not ready to close – who will for Phillies?

(3) Jimmy Rollins likely to miss at least two more weeks.

(4) Joe Mauer to DL with heel injury?

(5) Javier Vazquez to have start skipped.

(6) Brian Wilson back to health in San Francisco.

(7) Should you still sell-high on Garland and Fister? Here’s a quick shorthand note – yes.

By Ray Flowers

More of the Same

Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.

The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?

Some other rumors —

Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.

After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.

The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.

Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.

By Ray Flowers

Oddity Reigns

I wanted to focus on a few or the oddest news stories of Tuesday so I picked out four of those, while adding a bit of true baseball insight as I discuss the outlook of the next great one behind the dish.

Jason Marquis is 15-12 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Rockies in what has arguably been the best season of his career. Marquis made the All-Star game as he entered the break with 11 victories and a 3.65 ERA, but his numbers have dropped since including a 4-6 record with a 4.46 ERA over his last 13 starts. Even worse, his September work has been downright scary with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP over five starts (he is 1-3). Now comes word that he may not even be on the Rockies playoff roster because of his struggles and the return to health of Aaron Cook. Pretty tough when you win 15 games and don’t get to start a playoff game, let alone suffer the potential indignity of not even being on the active roster. Marquis, by the way, bas won at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons. You know how many hurlers have done that? It’s a pretty small list: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe and Marquis. He may be the worst pitcher on the list, but he is the quintessential innings eater who more often than not gives his team a chance to win.

Pedro Martinez hopes to return from his injured neck on Wednesday. I wonder if manager Charlie Manuel will again let Pedro throw 130 pitches, as he did in the start that really precipitated the injury, or if he will prepare Martinez for the possibility of starting a playoff game that lasts 12 innings by letting him throw 150 pitches.

The Tigers now say that they probably won’t start Rick Porcello again this week in order to save the youngsters arm. After all, he has thrown all of 165 innigns this season, the most in the history of the universe for a young pitcher. The Tigers have a one game lead over the Twins as I write this. You think any Tigers’ fans will care about how old Porcello is, or how many pitches he has thrown this season if they miss out on the playoffs because they decided to rest Porcello, specially since Porcello has a 5-2 record with a 3.19 ERA since the start of August? Seriously, hasn’t this babying of pitchers gone far enough? If a guy can’t go out there an pitch every fifth day, then why bother having him on your roster? It’s obviously completely unfair to compare any modern hurler to Cy Young, but take a gander at his record – he was held to only 147.2 innings as a rookie before the Spiders let him go for 423.2 innings in his second season. In fact, that began a stretch of 4-straight 400-innings seasons and 15-straight years of at least 300-innings. When men were men I guess…

Matt Wieters has all of a sudden gotten good. Not really of course, he has always been good, but his performance has finally started to come around, and in fact he has been tearing it up in September hitting .360 with a .952 OPS in 23 games in the final month of the year. Going back a bit further, Wieters is hitting .308 over his last 59 games to raise his overall mark to .292 in 90 games. That breakout that was predicted, it’s already started. Beware the hype machine heading into 2010, but Wieters clearly looks like a potential top-10 option behind the dish next season.

And lastly —-

Did you see this news report? Junior Seau, you know, the potential HOF linebacker, was at a rodeo this weekend. He entered the ring and was then run over by the bull. He apparently escaped unharmed, but if he can take on a bull why couldn’t he still have enough left to stop a 235 lbs running back?

By Ray Flowers

What Happened to David Price?

“Greatness is hard to define and even harder to attain”

– Ray Flowers

Remember back on draft day 2009 when you started to get that itch to pull the trigger on your first pitcher? You probably waited a few rounds and ended up taking someone like Dan Haren or Josh Beckett as your “ace” and then waited a while to select your second option. You probably then decided to grab a youngster with some upside, maybe a Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson type, and then you were left trying to decide who to grab for your third rotation spot. Did you do the safe thing and take a Matt Garza or Matt Cain, or did you go for broke and select a guy like the young lefty from Tampa that was going to be the next big thing? If you drafted that young man your 2009 season has likely been one of disappointment,

David Price dominated in a brief look in 2008 posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 innings with the Rays before allowing just a single run while striking out eight batters in 5.2 post-season innings on his way to a victory and a save. But the dude is just 24 years old, and as often happens on the road to greatness, reality set in.

First off, Price wasn’t even on the roster when the season started as the Rays sent him down to the minors to hone his pitches. Price posted a 3.93 ERA and a 9.17 K/9 mark at Triple-A in eight starts, but he was also plagued by walks – a 4.72 BB/9 mark clearly being a sign that he still needed to work on his craft.

So what happened when he was called up to the bigs? Predictably he struggled. Price failed to record six innings in any of his first four starts and in six of his first eight trips to the hill. He also struggled mightily with his control walking at least five batters in five of his first eight games. All told, over his first 12 outings, Price posted a 4-4 record while his ratios were far from impressive: 5.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a 5.25 BB/9 mark. Things have gotten better, though that is certainly a relative term, over his last eight outings: 4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 2.62 K/BB mark in 49.2 innings.

The main difference, as it almost always is with hurlers, is his growing ability to locate his pitches in the strike zone. If you throw strikes, success usually follows. Maybe Price can teach that to another young hurler who was drafted early this season yet has failed to even remotely approach the heights that were predicted of him. Who is that hurler? Joba Chamberlain of course. So next time you consider taking that up and coming young hurler in the early rounds of your draft remember that sometimes slow and steady wins the race and guys like Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly might just be better bets on draft day.

A QUOTE FOR THE AGES

Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Fantasy Buffet which can be heard each day at Fanball.com from 8-9 AM PST, found this quote while doing some research a while back, and I thought it would be great to share it with another audience here.

This Day in Baseball – September 7, 1961 – In the midst of his historic run at Babe Ruth’s single-season home run mark, the Yankees’ Roger Maris lays down a bunt in a 7-3 win over Washington. After the game, reporters ask Maris why he bunted. He replied, “Trying to win the game, you stupid ****sucker. Why do you think?” Is this the best quote in the history of baseball?

Possibly the best baseball quote of all-time.

By Ray Flowers

Eye of the Beholder

Monday was a bit of a slow day for news, but I still was able to ferret a couple stories that I found interesting, and if a guy as interesting as me though the stories had some merit, i.e. interest, well then you can take it to the bank – they are some darn interesting storylines.

Randy Johnson will head to the DL with a strained throwing shoulder. There still isn’t definitive news on how long he will be out, but the fear is that it will be much longer than 15 days (the hope right now is for him to return in about three weeks). What that means is that the Giants will likely have to turn back to Jonathan Sanchez, a potentially dangerous situation given his often profound struggles this season (5.94 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP). Still, the guy has no-hit stuff, if he could ever control it.

Tim Lincecum is quite possibly the most exciting mound presence since Pedro Martinez in his prime. The flowing hair, the stuff, the presence and the stare that says “I’m going to come right at you and there is nothing you can do about it” – the kid is the stuff of legend. Adding to the visceral feel of his presence are the dominating numbers he has produced in his short career. Through 75 starts Lincecum is 34-12, good enough for a .739 winning percentage. As a result, he is just the tenth pitcher in baseball history , since 1900 anyway, to produce a winning percentage that high through his first 75 starts. As flat out dominating as he has been, would it surprise to learn that Tim Hudson was even better through his first 75 starts with an amazing 43-13 record, good enough for a .768 winning percentage?

Rick Porcello will have his nest start skipped meaning he won’t appear again until after the All-Star break. Nothing is wrong, the team is just playing it safe with their future star so that they can avoid burning him out as he has already tossed 87 effective innings (8-6, 4.14 ERA). “We always said all along we were going to pick our spots to protect him,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It has nothing to do with yesterday’s performance, I can tell you that. … To be honest with you, I’m sure he doesn’t like it, but it’s what we’re going to do to protect him.” Smart moves like this mean that the Tigers really have Porcello’s long-term interests in mind (of course they are being selfish too because they obviously don’t want to burn out their future All-Star).

So much for the Chris Ray is going to close for the Orioles when they eventually trade George Sherrill line of thought. Ray, who has been miserable this season with a 9.28 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP, has been placed on the DL with right biceps tendonitis. At this point we have no idea how long he will be out (the club is hopeful it won’t take more than three weeks), but with his ineffectiveness and now injury, the team would be crazy to count on Ray in the second half. Jim Johnson owners in AL only leagues rejoice – you might pick up a few saves after all.

Mark Teixeira is hitting just .243 with a .800 OPS on the road. He is also hitting just .257 without a single long ball in 18 games. Amazing how a guy who is this consistent year-to-year can be so streaky within a season.

There was a report from ESPN that the Braves and Brewers were discussing a potential deal for Javier Vazquez. Really? When I heard that I thought to myself that on the surface that seemed like one stupid rumor. Good to know that my “spider-sense” was dead on as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out later in the day saying that the rumored deal was pure bolder dash. Sometimes I think that these guys just make up stories on slow news day. Still, it wasn’t a totally useless fishing expedition as the rumor did help to draw to the surface the recent comments of Ryan Braun. “Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got to find a way to throw the ball a little bit better for us to have success. When you’re constantly behind in games, it’s not easy and not fun.” How accurate was Braun’s analysis? The Brewers are currently 13th in the NL in ERA (4.47), tied for seventh in WHIP (1.39) and 11th in K/BB (1.96). They certainly could use an arm or two in that starting rotation.

By Ray Flowers