NFL: It’s Too Early, But…

If you listen to my radio show on Sirius 210 and XM 87 each day (Monday-Friday from 5-8 PM EDT), you know my thoughts on talking fantasy football in June (let’s just say I think it’s premature). Given that fact you’re probably wondering why there is a picture of Chris Johnson adorning my article today. I’m all about transparency at BaseballGuys, and one of the ways that I accomplish that is by always being open with you about the teams that I draft (you can find my review of the expert baseball leagues I participated in this year in the Fantasy U section). Therefore, I’m going to take a one day diversion from baseball to break down my FSTA Experts Draft for the NFL that was completed Monday night in San Francisco. I’ll return to baseball tomorrow in my mailbag article, and you can always follow me on Twitter for the rest of today for your baseball fix.

Teams: 14 (I had the 7th selection)

Rosters: 1 Quarterback , 2 Running Backs , 3 Wide Receivers , 1 Tight End, 1 Flex Player (RB, WR or TE) , 1 Kicker , 1 Team Defense/Specials Team, (6 reserves)

League Rules

Passing: 1 point for 30 yards. 3 points for TD. (-1) for fumbles/interceptions.

Rushing: 1 point for 10 yards. 6 points for TD. (-1) for fumble

Receiving (PPR): 1 point for 10 yards. 0.5 points for RB. 1 point for WR/TE. (-1) for fumbles.

The most obvious oddity in this scoring system, and why wouldn’t it be odd given that there simply isn’t any standardized setup in fantasy football (ugh) is that passers are really devalued here since most leagues award six points for passing touchdowns and all give at least four points. There is also the fact that yardage is dinged too (most leagues are one point per 25 yards with many giving one point for 20 yards). You all know I like to wait on quarterbacks anyway, but this setup just made that easier.

The second point is that runners only get half a point for receptions versus a full point for wide receivers and tight ends.

With that, here are some thoughts from the draft.

QUARTERBACKS

Four QBs were taken in the second round which seems a little heavy to me given the scoring system. Tony Romo and Philip Rivers in the 5th round seem like strong values. Peyton Manning went before Eli Manning as well. At this point hasn’t the younger brother surpasses the elder statesman?

RUNNING BACKS

I love Darren McFadden, and per game he is dynamite, but #5 overall is just too early. I feel the same way about Marshawn Lynch at #9. MJD would be a top-5 selection in every draft if it was clear that he wouldn’t be a holdout concern (he slipped to #8 here). Trent Richardson might be a dynamically skilled player but I’m not taking a rookie runner in the first round (#13 overall).

WIDE RECEIVERS

In a PPR setup, seems like there are a strong group of receivers available at the top of the draft. Wait past the middle of the draft though and you start taking a lot of shots on talent that lacks the numbers, or vets with the numbers who may be on the downside of their careers.

TIGHT ENDS

Jimmy Graham went off the board one pick after Ron Gronkowski in the second round. After the two elite ends were taken another didn’t go for 34 selections.

MY TEAM

QB: Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer
RB: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Isaiah Pead
WR: Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, Denarius Moore, Titus Young, Alshon Jeffery
TE: Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett
K: Alex Henery
DEF: Seattle Seahawks

I waited on quarterbacks an ended up with a solid duo in a 14 team league.

CJ2K and AD. If Peterson is healthy in Week 1, and CJ rebounds just slightly from last year, this duo could lead me to a championship.

I’ve got Marshall who is a lock for 80 receptions and 1,000, and then it’s an uber talented group of four youngsters behind him. I think Maclin has legit top-15 WR potential, and Moore could be the breakout star at WR this year.

It was Vernon Davis or Finley when I drafted my end and I avoided being a homer and chose the Packers tight end who is making all kinds of proclamations that he is going to go off this year.

K/DEF = Oh yeah, we have to roster those two dong we?

For the results of the entire draft click on the RT Sports Link to the event, and for a review of some of the numbers posted by the elite of the game check out Fleaflicker.

FINALLY… for more on the weekend events at the FSTA give a read to my diary of the weekend in How Good AM I & Lil’ Kim.

By Ray Flowers

A Successful Return

Yes, I made it home. If you are wondering why that is a slight shock, make sure you give my last blog posting a read where I lay out what the just completed weekend had in store for this kid (you can find that entry at Las Vegas Vacation). I don’t normally write about football here – pretty obvious when the title of my blog is BaseballGuys.com, but with less than a week to go before the NFL season counts, and with a wild weekend to recap, I’m going to push ahead with an entry about the gridiron.

Here are some of the highlights of the proceedings in Vegas as Fanball hosted the National Fantasy Football Championship.

* Some of the ADP numbers – Average Draft Position – certainly didn’t seem to play themselves out at the NFFC.

Jay Cutler was getting no love as he even fell out of the top-10 at the quarterback position at times.

Kevin Kolb who soared up to #7 at the QB spot has seen his ADP dip back to #10. He was being taken by some inside the top-10, but there may have been as many times when he was on the outside looking in at the top-10 at the position.

Maurice Jones-Drew has everyone panicked with that knee injury of his. The clear cut #3 option overall according to almost everyone worth a darn, he was falling to 4-5-6 and he even fell to #7 in one draft I witnessed. If he falls to you at #7 thank your lucky stars as you’ll likely get a tremendous value (kind of like last season when Joe Mauer was falling into the 7th to 9th round because people were worried about the back injury that was likely to sideline him for the month of April. We all know how fantabulistic that turned out for those that took a chance on the Twins’ catcher. What, you thought I would write a whole piece without mentioning baseball? You know me better than that by now don’t you?).

* Ryan Grant continues to get no love. I guess people see him and think ‘little’ upside, though in his defense, he is one of only four running backs to have rushed for at least 1,200-yards in each of the past two seasons. The others are Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson.

* The Bellagio hosts a hell of an event. Plus, I swear on my mother’s life, I think there are only hot women with four inch heels and tight miniskirts allowed within the city limits of Las Vegas. There’s some astounding scenery in that town.

* Everyone is on the bandwagon with the 49ers defense.

* Speaking of that bandwagon, Arian Foster‘s can barely hold another soul. The guy is simply zooming up draft boards at an astounding rate for a guy who, four months ago, was barely on anyone’s radar.

* How in the world did I have to pay $13 for a White Russian? And no, I’m not talking about one of those hotties in a mini-skirt, I mean the drink. Don’t worry, I got back at them though with my $17 dollar Eiffel Tower drink from Paris. That’s my 15.6 laptop in the picture for scale, and despite what looks like a pink hue, the color was a manly white.

* People still seem to love taking quarterback’s early. I touched on why I think that isn’t necessarily the best plan of action in NFL Mailbag – The QB Conundrum.

So there it is.

I’m back at home in sunny California, I didn’t lose a kidney or get arrested, and I remember the entire trip (no blackouts). All in all, that sounds like a pretty good weekend doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers