Draft Day Challenge, April 9

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, I’ll also be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 9th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. John Buck
2. Wilin Rosario

Not only does Buck have three homers and 12 RBIs in just seven games (the most RBIs in Mets history over the first seven games of the season), but he’s facing Cliff Lee, a pitcher who he has hit .292 with three homers against in 48 at-bats.

The Rockies’ backstop is hitting .350 with three homers on the year, and Rosario also has four hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats against Tim Lincecum.

FIRST BASE
1. Todd Helton
2. Adrian Gonzalez

Helton is broken down, old, and generally ineffective. However, he’s always risen to the occasion against Tim Lincecum who he is hitting .359 with a .479 OBP against across 39 at-bats.

I don’t know how this is possible, but in eight at-bats against Clayton Richard A-Gone has only gone back to the dugout once without reaching base. That’s right, he’s got seven hits in eight at-bats (.875 with all the hits being singles). He’s not playing, but Hanley Ramirez has been even better with nine hits in 10 at-bats against Richard.

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Donovan Solano

Utley is only 2-for-8 against Dillon Gee, but he’s hit .301 with a .918 OPS at home in his career and he’s also managed a .297 average and .888 OPS against righties in his career.

Solano has six hits in his last five games and is batting .292 on the young season. He’s also produced four hits, including two homers, in seven at-bats against Kris Medlen.

THIRD BASE
1. Juan Uribe
2. Chris Johnson

Uribe flat out kills it against Clayton Richard as he’s hit .385 with a 1.159 OPS, including two homers, against the lefty in 26 at-bats.

Johnson is only 1-for-3 against Wade LeBlanc in his career, but he had three hits Monday and his career numbers against lefties say he would produce about 78 RBIs over 550 at-bats.

SHORTSTOP
1. Jed Lowrie
2. Ruben Tejada

Tejada has a hit in three of his last four games, and on the year he has five walks versus four strikeouts. He’s also had a bunch of success against Cliff Lee with six hits in 13 at-bats (.462).

According to ESPN, Lowrie hasn’t sung and missed the last five games covering a total of 31 swings. He’s also produced nine line drives in the 19 balls he’s put into play.

OUTFIELD
1. Jon Jay
2. Jeff Francoeur

Jay is hitting .242 on the young season, but he’s a career .299 hitter who is about to face Bronson Arroyo, a hurler who he has 10 hits in 25 at-bats against (.400).

Francoeur has hit .316 in 19 at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Frenchie has also been mildly effective at Kauffman Stadium in his career hitting .271 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs over 569 at-bats.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Wily Peralta vs. Cubs
2. Kris Medlen vs. Marlins
3. Andy Pettitte vs. Indians
4. Brandon Maurer vs. Astros

Peralta faces the Cubs, and the Cubbies are hitting .186. One-eighty-six, with an OPS of 540 folks. Last season Tim Hudson, he’s a pitcher in case you forgot (though he used to DH in college), hit .218 with a .523 OPS. Just saying.

Medlen isn’t facing the Astros, more on that below, but he is facing an terrible Marlins club that is hitting .228 with a .295 OBP and .298 SLG. They’ve also only gone deep two times while scoring 14 runs in seven games.

Pettitte has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 13 starts. In his last six starts against the team from Cleveland he’s also posted a 2.86 ERA.

Maurer looked pretty bad in his first outing as he allowed six runs in six innings, but at this point, how do you not consider any hurler against the Astros? The club from Houston is hitting .201 with a .234 OBP and .275 SLG. Honestly, you can’t be a professional club and do any worse.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Athletics & Astros Deal

The Athletics and the Astros completed a five player deal, and though none of the names really jumps off the page at you, there are two names that will be drafted in nearly all mixed leagues and they also have the ability to be impressive single league contributors. There’s also an arm you might want to pay attention to in the reserve rounds of AL-only leagues. Oh, I’ll also touch on the Mets’ bullpen and my favorite Mexican food.

The A’s and Astros pulled off a five player deal Monday. Here are the details.

Athletics Receive: Jed Lowrie, Fernando Rodriguez
Astros Receive: Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

Here’s a quick rundown.

Lowrie is the “big” name, for what that is worth. He leaves a good hitter’s park in Houston for a pitcher’s yard in Oakland. He’s also never able to stay healthy. Here are his games played totals: 81, 32, 55, 88 & 97. That’s five years without even 100 games played folks. He’s also got the most boring slash line you will ever see: .250/.326/.417. With a full season of at-bats 20 homers is possible, but as you can tell from this brief little note, I’m not a huge fan. Rodriguez was 2-10 with a 5.37 ERA last year in the minors, but at least he struck out 78 batters in 70.1 innings. ”He’s got a real big arm,” A’s GM’ Billy Beane said. ”His record, his ERA are probably a little bit misleading.”

Carter is the big catch for the Astros. He has immense power, and with Minute Maid Park posting a Park Indices mark of 107 for right handed batters (seven percent better than the league average), his power should be on full display, and oh what a stroke it is. Carter powered 12 homers with 53 RBIs in 72 games at Triple-A before blasting 16 homers in just 218 at-bats with the Athletics. A word of caution though. Carter strikes out a ton, 83 in 218 at-bats last season and 124 in 332 career at-bats leading to a scary 32.3 percent K-rate. It’s no surprised he has hit .214 in those 332 at-bats. He’s got oodles of raw power, but he might perform a lot like his new teammate, Carlos Pena, in 2013 (I would have to think that Pena plays first base with Carter at DH most of the time leaving Brett Wallace without a spot in the daily lineup unless the ‘Stros decide to let him play some third base where they appear likely to go with Matt Dominguez to start the year). Peacock had a disastrous 2012 at Triple-A with a 6.01 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 4.41 BB/9 mark over 134.2 innings. A one time high end prospect, he’s likely to get a chance at the Astros’ fifth rotation spot this spring, but given the downgrade he offered on the field last season he;s likely going to have to prove himself all over again (he was dominant in 2011 though – 15-3, 2.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 177 Ks in 146.2 innings at Double and Triple A). Stassi is a catcher who played at High-A last season and is likely a couple of years away.

I like burritos but not tacos, especially if the tacos have hard shells. Carnitas is my favorite, as are black beans. I think you need something in there to grease the wheel, I like guacamole or sour cream, but I think cheese is a bit of an overkill since, honestly, it’s hard to taste it with everything else in the mix. Just thought I would share.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Who is the Mets closer? We are left to assume it’s Frank Francisco at the moment, but GM Sandy Alderson isn’t ready to confirm that line of thought. “I think a lot will depend on what we see over the course of February and into March,” Alderson said. “I think that’s something that will be determined in the course of spring training. Health is an issue. Performance is an issue.” Francisco had a 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last season, though he was surprisingly effective in the saves category converting 23 of 26 chances. He’s a big strikeout arm, 415 in 376.1 career innings, but he’s often bit by the long ball and last season he had a hard time finding the strike zone with a 4.46 BB/9 mark. The Mets may be interested in Jose Valverde, but they would likely be better off going with Bobby Parnell if they don’t go with Frank. Bobby does exactly what I look for in any hurler – he provides strikeouts and grounders. Parnell has averaged 8.25 Ks per nine innings, and last season his ground ball rate was over 61 percent (career 1.80). Last season ha also reigned in the walks issuing just 2.62 batters per nine, and when you throw 96 mph+ batters have a tough squaring up the ball consistently.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Jay Bruce is at it again. He’s mashing. Over the past three weeks he’s hit .352 with eight homers, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored. The recent rush has pushed his season marks to .265-32-93-80-7. Last season he produced a fantasy line of .256-32-97-84-8. It might look like nothing has changed but remember that he’s had 110 fewer at-bats this season.

Speaking of the Reds, Chris Heisey is hitting .469 over his last 32 at-bats for the club from Cincy. That’s 15 hits in 32 at-bats folks. He’s been a huge boost in NL-only leagues (check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker).

Josh Johnson has looked much better in the second half as he has a 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB ratio over his last 11 starts. That’s more like it big fella.

Jed Lowrie hit 14 homers with a .799 OPS in 80 games this season. He’s joined Double-A Corpus Christi. Consider me nonplussed. The guy is a walking injury and his performance is always up and down, up and down. I’ve never been a huge fan despite the obvious skills.

Joe Nathan has been nails the past three weeks. In that time he has struck out 11 batters, without issuing a single free pass, as he’s picked up seven saves in eight outings. Actually, Nathan has been killing it all year long. Not only does he have a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he’s also struck out 10.76 batters per nine innings this season while striking out 8.13 batters for every walk. Oh yeah, he’s also 30 for 31 in converting save chances. Obviously his arm is all the way back.

Chris Perez called out the Indians for being cheap. “They (the Tigers) are spending money. He (Mike Ilitch the Tigers owner) wants to win. Even when the economy was down (in Detroit), he spent money. He’s got a team to show for it. You get what you pay for in baseball. Sometimes you don’t. But most of the time you do.” Can’t disagree with the sentiment Mr. Perez, but it might be wise to put your house on the market because if I’m the owner of the Indians you’re on your way out this offseason since you clearly don’t want to be in Cleveland.

I know it’s hard to believe, but Kurt Suzuki has actually looked like a big league hitter since he joined the Nationals. He’s hit .266 with three homers, 13 RBIs an a .742 OPS over 22 games.

Mike Trout, and save the hate email people as I’m just pointing out a fact, is hitting .275 over his last 33 games. It would be advisable for you to spend a few moments reading Ron Shandler’s recent article on Trout as well.

Shane Victorino has not performed up to par with the Dodgers. He’s stolen eight bags in 32 games which is a fine pace of course, but he’s hitting just .254 with one homer and a .651 OPS in the blue and white. I’d expect him to perform better in the month of September.

Tom Wilhelmsen leads baseball with eight saves the past three weeks. Yet again we have proof that you don’t have to spend early draft picks or lost of cash on closers on draft day. On the year Tom has 24 saves in 27 opportunities for the Mariners. He’ also struck out 73 batters in 66.1 innings while posting solid ratios (2.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Evan Longoria vs. Derek Holland: .421-2-6 in 19 at-bats
Juan Pierre vs. Jeff Francis: .429 with 18 hits in 42 at-bats
David Ross vs. Jonathon Niese: .462-1-8 in only 13 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: .472 in 53 at-bats
Adam Jones vs. CC Sabathia: .342-3-10 in 38 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Bruce Chen: .424-2-4 in 33 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Cubs: .179/.256/.192 in 78 at-bats. 1 RBI allowed.
Francisco Liriano vs. Royals: .239/.302/.316 in 117 at-bats
Luis Mendoza vs. White Sox: .230/.312/.388 in 152 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Astros: .180/.198/.270 in 100 at-bats.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Pirates: .149/.231/.234 in 47 at-bats
C.J. Wilson vs. Tigers: .240/.324/.323 in 96 at-bats. Zero HRs.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July18, 2012

(1) Roy Halladay looks good in return from DL.

(2) CC Sabathia looks good in return from DL.

(3) Roy Oswalt rounding into form for Rangers.

(4) Mike Trout AL MVP? On fire in July.

(5) Andrew McCutchen NL MVP? On fire in July.

(6) Francisco Rodriguez now closing for Brewers. At this point, he needs to be owned in all leagues (see Fleaflicker).

(7) Jed Lowrie hurt again.

(8) Tony Campana not stealing bases. Does he have any value?

(9) Trevor Bauer really struggling with control.

(10) Juan Carlos Oviedo done for the year?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 14: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust? To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Cole DeVries (+78, $246K in DailyJoust Salary)
Though six appearances, and five starts, Cole has compiled a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the Twins. He’s also allowed just three runs in his last three appearances while striking out 12 and walking just two. Like seemingly ever Twins hurler, he just doesn’t beat himself with the free passes (eight in 30 innings).

Marco Estrada (+68, $291K)
In six games as a starter for the Brewers he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Not exactly numbers that appear to go together. So which arm has he been? Try the 1.02 WHIP guy. In those 42 innings as a starter this year eh has an impressive 45 Ks and thanks to just six walks his K/BB ratio is a HOF worthy 7.50. Well worth a look if available (even if no one has noticed. See Fleaflicker).

Zach McAllister (+70, $135K)
Through seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP for the Indians. Though he’s allowed only three earned runs his last two starts he’s remarkably also permitted six other unearned runs or that ERA would look pretty bad. He does have 41 Ks an a 4.10 K/BB ratio in 42.1 innings though so it’s not like he’s bereft of skill.

Alex Rodriguez (+30, $105K)
He has seven hits in his last five games, but he’s still batting just .269 with a .793 OPS. Unfortunately the average is about what was expected – he hit .270 and .276 the past two years – and his OPS was under .850 each of the past two years as well. He’s also on pace for about 25 homers and 75 RBIs. Put that all together and we’d be talking about the worst full season of his career – by a substantial amount.

Will Venable (+28, $83K)
He’s always lurking on the edge of relevance in a 12 team league that starts five outfielders. He’s got a little bit of pop (six homers) and some speed (eight steals though he’s been caught six times). Still, he’s a .249 career hitter with a .320 OBP, and guess what, he’s hitting .248 with a .318 OBP this year. Only an injury fill in for mixed leaguers.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Alejandro De Aza (-16, $89K)
Hitting .283 with a pace for 25+ steals and 100 runs (including 11 in his last 10 games), there is nothing to complain about with De Aza. Sure he only has two homers in 61 games, and he’s swiped just four bases in his last 32 games, but that’s just nitpicking.

Eric Hosmer (-13, $77K)
Hosmer lifted his average up to .237 on July 2nd, the highest it had been since April 9th. Yeah, it’s been a rough year. Hosmer has scored seven times in his last eight games, and I’m still thinking a rebound is coming. His line drive rate, HR/F are the same as last year. He’s also walking more and striking out less. Sooner or later that will result in increased offensive production. Trust me.

Jed Lowrie (-13, $55K)
Once more into the breach…

Haven’t we been here before? You know, the point were I tell you that Jed Lowrie isn’t as good as everyone thinks he is? The point where I mention that he’s never going to help you out in the batting average category (.254 this year, .253 in career). Or how about his merely average ability to get on base (.343 OBP this year, .329 for his career). Or how about his streaky as all hell nature? Anyone notice that he’s hit .191 with one homer the past three weeks? Even worse, the guy has hit .211 over his last 34 games. You can’t say I didn’t warn you.

Anibal Sanchez (-68, $188K)
He’s had a rough go of it, but in his final start before the break he stopped the bleeding allowing two runs, without walking a batter, in six innings. He ends the first half with a 1.25 WHIP, 0.03 better than last season, and his 7.99 K/9 and 3.06 K/BB ratios point to a guy who has pitched pretty well this season. I know it’s hard to trust him given his recent downturn in production, but he’s a nice buy low option considering his perceived lack of value.

CONTEST: All-Star Game

Sign up to play in the All-Star Game contest at DailyJoust. Simply register at this LINK and the contest will show up in the lobby for you. Yet another reason you’ll want to watch the mid-season’s classic.

CONTEST – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000

Here’s the deal. Every Friday through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official web page of the tournament.

Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.

That’s right. Be a weekly winner and you’ll get your shot to view for the $12,000 in prizes ($5,000 to the winner)… for the cost of $10.

Sound like a game you’d like to try your hand at?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June27, 2012

(1) Brandon Morrow (obqliue) – conflicting reports on his health/return date.

(2) CC Sabathia shockingly headed to DL with groin issue.

(3) Daniel Hudson’s elbow barking – tests being run. Patrick Corbin called up.

(4) Aroldis Chapman/Santiago Casilla rebound from recent hiccups.

(5) Ryan Braun’s elbow barking – out of lineup Weds. Hopes to return Friday.

(6) Jed Lowrie’s average going down, but he’s flashing a big time power bat (he’s knocking on top-10 status at the position over at Fleaflicker).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

The Fantasy Beat: Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com

Justin and Trevor are joined this week by Jeff Erickson from RotoWire.com. They discuss Bryan LaHair, Albert Pujols, Carlos Marmol, Tim Lincecum, punting categories, third base worries and who to possibly add (Ian Stewart, Jed Lowrie, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Chris Johnson)  and much more.

Listen to the Audio.

Tuesday Tips

Whether your fantasy baseball league is an AL-only, NL-only, mixed league or keeper league, there’s something for you in today’s piece. Promise.

Dylan Bundy, the Orioles uber-prospect who was chosen #4 overall in last years draft leading to him being named the #10 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, has started out his professional career as if he has no intention of spending much time in the minors. Through five starts in A-Ball he’s walked two batters in 17 innings while he has allowed one hit. That’s three base runners in 17 innings leading to a 0.18 WHIP. He’s also fanned 25 batters and not allowed a run. Time to move him up a level already Orioles?

Zack Cozart is hitting a solid .271 for the season, but that’s likely a disappointment to his owners since he was hitting .342 ten games into the season. Like I said all preseason, and into the season when he was tearing it up, Cozart isn’t at a point in his development when he should be expected to perform at all-star levels. After his recent downturn in production at the dish Cozart is on pace to hit .271 with seven homers, 30 RBI and seven steals. Hate to tell you I told you so but…

Anyone out there realize that Adrian Gonzalez hit .271 with two homers an a .737 OPS in April? As I wrote three weeks ago in Panic In The Streets, AGone hit only one homer last April before finishing the year with 27 bombs so it’s certainly not panic time. However, he did hit .314 with a .836 OPS in a better first stanza to the season last year. For his career his April has led to a .288 batting average and .856 OPS with the OPS being the second lowest of any month from April through September. If you’ve read my stuff you know my thoughts on Gonzalez, but the guy has hit 29 homers in 181 games as a Red Sox. Are you ready to finally admit that I was right back in January of last year when I warned that Adrian may not produce huge homer totals playing half his games at Fenway Park? See ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez.

Billy Hamilton of the Reds might be the fastest man in the sport. Rated the 48th best prospect in the game coming into the 2012 season by Baseball America, Hamilton stole 103 bases last year as a 20 year old in Single-A ball. This season he’s off to a stupendous, and that isn’t a term I throw around lightly, pace with the bat as he’s hit .398 through 23 games at High-A ball. But what about the speed you say? Try this on for size. In those 23 games Hamilton has stolen 29 bases to give him 132 steals in his last 158 games. He isn’t likely to appear in the bigs this season, but dynasty leaguers you had better be aware of a guy who plays shortstop who owns the skills of Vince Coleman.

At this point, meaning when I wrote this piece, there are two greatly differing reports on the health of Evan Longoria. One report suggests he has a hamstring or knee situation that may or may not result in him being placed on the DL. The other reports suggests that it’s a hamstring issue that could keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a Longoria owner I almost upchucked my breakfast this morning when I heard the 6-8 week line of though. Let’s hope that the report was premature and that Longoria will be back in a relatively short period of time cause losing Longo for two months would be a devastating blow to his fantasy squads.

Jed Lowrie is hitting .297 and here we go again. I’m getting questions about people in mixed leagues who really want to add him to the mix. I’ll repeat the same thing I’ve been saying for two years – he’s not that good. For his career his slash line is completely big league average at .256/.328/.409. He’s also stolen only four bases in his career and per 140 games he’s a 12 homer bat. Yippee doodle. It should also be noted that though Lowrie has hit .304 in the month of April in his career that his May-October batting average is .243.

Stephen Strasburg has been as dominating as any pitcher in baseball with a 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34 Ks in 32 innings to start the 2012 season. The most amazing part of his effort though may be this: Strasburg has allowed 22 hits in his 32 innings, and the breakdown is 20 singles, two doubles, zero triples and zero home runs. That’s two extra base hits in 32 innings folks. Wow.

By Ray Flowers