Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Cleaning the Glass & Rounding the Bases

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray start off talking about some NBA players that could see some increased minutes because they are playing on teams that are out of it. They also talk some general Free Agents to pickup for your playoff stretch. It’s now time for Trevor to quit complaining about NBA because he gets to talk some fantasy baseball. The guys discuss some key draft strategies people need to pay attention to.

NBA: Gerald Henderson, Wesley Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, Tiago Splitter

MLB: Tiering, Positional Qualification, PEDs, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jeff Keppinger, Chase Headley, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: September 26, 2012

(1) Chase Headley now a top-5 3B?

(2) Torii Hunter finds the fountain of youth?

(3) Daniel Murphy finishing strong.

(4) Jeff Keppinger finishing strong.

(5) Pedro Alvarez reaches 30 homers.

(6) Wilin Rosario having remarkable season. Will it continue in 2013?

(7) Paul Goldschmidt and Billy Butler massive weapons facing Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Who should you be playing Friday and Saturday? In addition to that info, I’ll hit on a few of the relevant stories in the game as well.

The Dodgers, to the frustration of everyone, will use Ronald Belisario and Brandon League in the 9th inning with Kenley Jansen (heart) on the sidelines. Way to clarify that situation for us Mr. Mattingly. I’d favor Belisario, 60/40, for 9th inning work. Also, Chad Billingsley will have platlet-rich plasma injections in his elbow in the hopes that it will help him return before the end of the season. It may, or may not, get him back out on the field this season.

The Giants plan on getting Joaquin Arias more time on the field. Good idea Giants. Arias is hitting .429 with 15 RBIs in just 56 at-bats in the month of August (that average leads baseball by the way). He’s not a great hitter, not even close, but he’s rolling right now making him a wonderful NL-only option at the moment.

Carlos Pena has been told his playing time will be cut. Shocker. When you’re hitting .188 with just 16 homers you should have your playing time reduced. Looks like Jeff Keppinger will get more time at first base against left-handed pitchers. Seems like a good thing since, oh, Keppinger thinks he’s Ted Williams against lefties this year as he’s hitting .411 with a 1.005 OPS through 90 at-bats.

Alex Rodriguez (hand) could return from the DL as early as Monday. Hand/wrist injuries traditionally sap the power of batters a wee bit, so it would be wise not to expect him to have some massive month of September, but at least he might have a month to help out fantasy squads.

Josh Vitters has failed, miserably, to do anything for the Cubs. He’s been awful at the plate going 5-for-54. That’s less than a .100 batting average folks (.093). The team doesn’t want the youngster to think he’s the worst player of all-time, so they are going to manage his workload moving forward. That’s code for they are going to bench him an awful lot. Hard to believe, but Luis Valbuena appears likely to get an awful lot of work at the hot corner (that’s not code – you want to add Valbuena in NL-only leagues if he is available, even if he can’t really hit either: .227/.319/.384 in 920 career at-bats. Maybe that’s why no one has bothered to add him to their team at Fleaflicker). Speaking of youngsters, Brett Jackson’s numbers are still poor – .216 average and 37 Ks in 74 at-bats (to state it differently, he’s striking out in literally half his at-bats) – but unlikely Vitters there seems to be some short-term hope. Jackson has been a highly effective offensive performer over his last seven games with three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored. At least one of the Cubs’ youngsters is showing something.

HITTERS FOR FRIDAY

Stephen Drew vs. Aaron Cook: .342 in 38 at-bats
Jonny Gomes vs. Aaron Cook: .500-3-6 in 14 at-bats
Torii Hunter vs. Kevin Millwood: .405-2-13 in 42 at-bats
Dan Uggla vs. Roy Halladay: .355-3-7 in 31 at-bats
Chris Young vs. Aaron Harang: .316-3-5 in 19 at-bats

HITTERS FOR SATURDAY

Aaron Hill vs. Josh BeckettL .412-1-8 in 34 at-bats
Ryan Howard vs. Tim Hudson: .344-7-17 in 61 at-bats
Adam Lind vs. Jeff Niemann: .448-3-9 in 29 at-bats
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: .500-1-3 in 26 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Max Scherzer: .385-1-5 in 26 at-bats

PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: 11-6, 2.69 ERA in his career.
Hiroki Kuroda: 8-straight starts 3 or fewer ERs (11 ERs total).
Adam Wainwright vs. Nats: 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA last seven starts this year.

PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Homer Bailey vs. Astros: 4-0, 1.33 ERA vs. ‘Stros. Club hitting .225 since All-Star Break.
Kyle Lohse vs. Nats: 5-0, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over last nine starts
Max Scherzer vs. W.Sox: 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 Ks in 75.2 IP vs. W.Sox.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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CRUSADER LEAGUES
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GLADIATOR LEAGUES
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To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Random Musings

Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.

Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.

Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.

Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.

If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.

The last 28 days did you know…

Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.

Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?

Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.

Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.

Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.

Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know…

I throw up one of these pieces every once in a while, an as we all head off to our 2010 Turkey Day celebrations I thought it apropos to look back and give thanks for some rather interesting production from the men on the diamond

Did You Know… Jose Bautista scored 49.5 percent of his runs by knocking himself in as he went deep 54 times while scoring 109 runs (the homers led baseball, the runs were 6th)? Albert Pujols, who led baseball with 115 runs, only knocked himself in 36.5 percent of the time. The only player who scored 100 runs this season while hitting less than 10 homers was the Tigers’ Austin Jackson who scored 103 times while hitting just four long balls.

Did You Know… Ian Desmond led baseball with 34 errors, seven more than any other player (Starlin Castro, 27 errors)? Castro may have caught him if he had played a full compliment of games as the Cubs’ shortstop suited up for only 123 games, 27 less than Desmond. These young shortstops both have bright futures, but both could stand to tidy things up on defense.

Did You Know… Prince Fielder was the only player in baseball to hit under .265 while posting an OBP of at least .380? Fielder hit just .261 though his 114 walks – the most in baseball – helped him to a .401 OBP. Moreover, he was the only player in baseball to post an OBP of at least .395 who didn’t hit at least .300. Yeah he had a “down” year, but Fielder was pretty darn productive despite the prevailing wisdom that he was awful because he had only 83 RBI.

Did You Know… Jeff Keppinger had the best BB/K mark in baseball amongst qualifiers (502 plate appearances) with a 1.42 mark? He was followed by arguably the two best hitters in baseball in Albert Pujols (1.36) and Joe Mauer (1.23), who in turn were followed by the only two other men in baseball who posted a mark of at least 1:1 (Daric Barton – 1.23, Chase Utley – 1.00). At the other end of the spectrum we have Andruw Jones at 0.19. If we had seven Andruw Jones and we added them together that we would still come up short of the mark of Keppinger (1.33 to 1.42).

Did You Know… Juan Pierre led baseball with 18 caught stealing attempts? Of course, he also led baseball with 68 steals so we can overlook the CS run. Still, 18 is a pretty big number when you consider that he was caught stealing more times than Nelson Cruz or Jimmy Rollins were successful (they each had 17 steals).

Did You Know… Albert Pujols is more than just a hitter as he actually led baseball in putouts (1,458), total chances (1,619) and double plays (146) in the field? He also made only four errors on the year leading to a .998 fielding percentage once again showing that he might be the most complete player in baseball – even if the talk of his greatness is usually limited to his work at the dish.

Did You Know… Mark Reynolds is the only player in baseball who hit at least 30 homers in 2010 yet failed to rap out at least 23 doubles? Reynolds had only 17. Given that he hit 28 and 30 the previous two years, his ’10 effort has to be seen as a downer. Of course, he also fell from 24 steals to just seven, while his average fell .044 points below his career rate of .242, so it wasn’t just the loss of doubles that led many a Reynolds owner to consider hitting the bottle at 11 AM in the morning through most of the 2010 season.

By Ray Flowers