AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 1, 2010

(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.

(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.

(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.

(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.

(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.

(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 20, 2010

(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.

(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.

(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.

(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?

(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.

(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.

(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Trevor Cahill

I admit it, I’m not always right. I’d like to think that more often than not I’ve got a handle on the world of baseball, but every once in a while I just have to throw my arms up and say I have no idea what is going on (i.e. Jose Bautista and his insane run to 40 homers). In the case of the historic excellence of Trevor Cahill I have to admit that not only did I not see it coming, I’m utterly shocked, and that doesn’t happen that often.

Here are the facts.

Cahill is second in the AL in ERA at 2.50.
Cahill is second in the AL in WHIP at 0.98.
Cahill is first in the AL in batting average against at .195.

As if that isn’t enough to knock you off your chair if you have been on a desert island with Yvonne Strahovski for the past four months (the beautiful blonde from CHUCK), how about this little whopper of historical greatness:

Trevor Cahill has made 20-straight starts in which he has thrown at least five innings while never allowing more than six hits.

While that may not sound like much, here is the context that makes that statement utterly amazing. That stretch of 20-straight starts of five innings and six or fewer hits allowed ties Nolan Ryan for the all-time modern day major league record. Think about that. I just said the words ‘all-time’ and ‘Nolan Ryan’ in the same sentence, and then related that statement to the performance of Mr. Cahill. Shocking isn’t a strong enough term to describe my reaction.

I’ll be the first to admit that scouts have long been impressed with the stuff of Cahill who, literally, has a difficult time throwing the ball straight (he gets tremendous movement on this tosses). At the same time, we all know that his current pace is nuts, don’t we?

(1) His current BAA is a joke. His stuff isn’t near strong enough to warrant a sub .200 mark (last season the best mark in baseball was .200 by Clayton Kershaw).

(2) Though he is an excellent ground ball inducer (56 percent of batted balls), there is little to no chance that Cahill will be able to continue to hold batters to a mere 14.4 percent line drive rate. Remember, the big league average is about 20 percent. Even if he substantially betters that league average mark, it’s still decidedly foolish to think he will be able to keep that LD-rate this low.

(3) His BABIP is laughably low. His .212 mark is .064 points below his mark from last season and it’s the best mark in the AL by some .044 points this year (Jeff Niemann). There is no way, none, zip, zilch, nada, that he can sustain that pace.

Does this mean that Cahill will fall flat on his face over the final quarter of the season? Not necessarily. Sometimes players are so locked in that they can outperform their skill level and taunt the gods of logic. At the same time, sooner or later the universe has a way of correcting itself (remember what happened to Fausto Carmona after his magical 2007 season?). Sooner or later Cahill is going to have to pay the Pied Piper – it’s only a matter of when his payment will be due.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag – May 14th

I’m in a 12-team head-to-head mixed league and my pitching has been horrendous, to say the least, to start the season. I thought it would be one of my strengths, but so far my players just haven’t lived up to expectations. We start a typical 5-man rotation and I have Verlander, Beckett, Kazmir, Floyd, Zambrano and Niemann as my mainstays. I’ve also been playing some matchups with Wade LeBlanc and Brett Myers and have added some solid arms in Colby Lewis and Derek Holland. I’m not too concerned about Beckett, but Kazmir looks very hittable and Floyd has just been plain awful. I’m also not sure if Zambrano will ever find his way back into the starting rotation. Do you think I need to make a move for another more reliable arm or will my rotation improve enough to allow me to compete?
– Mike, Boston, MA

Well Mike, I have to compliment you on rostering a tremendous group of arms. Obviously not all of these arms are currently on your roster, but I thought I would run through the 10 arms mentioned and give my quick thoughts on each before giving my recommendation.

Justin Verlander: A top of the rotation hurler. Verlander routinely throws high 90′s gas late into games, is currently sporting a solid 8.51 K/9 mark, and has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts.

Josh Beckett: His back issue seems minor. As for his performance, I have no idea where his .365 BABIP has come from (career .303), nor his inability to locate his pitches early on (his 3.51 BB/9 mark would be his worst mark since 2003 and is three-quarters of a batter above his career rate of 2.76). I think he should be fine and is a great buy low candidate – provided he is healthy.

Scott Kazmir: Will get at least one more shot at staying in the rotation for the Angels, but his performance has been troubling. His fastball speed is 90.1 mph, a career low, and the third straight year of a mph decrease. His vaunted slider? That one is down to 79.4. It was 84 mph in 2006. You cannot have success with a 1.26 K/BB mark.

Gavin Floyd: He has a 6.92 ERA but his Fielder Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) is just 4.16. The problem this year has been the walk (3.69 compared to a mark below 3.10 each of the past three years) and the fact that his BABIP rate is .371 (career .296). He is primed for a turnaround.

Carlos Zambrano: Will remain in the pen for now, but I would be shocked if that lasted all year (Carlos Silva and/or Tom Gorzelanny will eventually fail). In 27 innings this season Big Z has 32 Ks (10.67 K/9) and his current 2.67 K/BB mark is a career best. All of this has occurred despite and absurd .482 BABIP mark (career .283).

Jeff Niemann: More of what we saw last season. He won’t maintain his current ratios (2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP), not with the same K/BB (2.15 this year vs. 2/12 last year), HR/9 (0.82 vs. 0.85) and GB/FB (1.06 and 1.03) rate as last year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to match his marks of last season.

Wade LeBlanc: He simply doesn’t have the stuff to sustain his early success (1.61 ERA, 7.39 K/9), but he also shouldn’t be saddled with his current WHIP of 1.46. He has balanced out his massive .356 mark by not allowing a single home run and is a solid depth arm at the back of a rotation, though not someone you want to start in all matchups.

Brett Myers: It may not always be pretty with Myers, but in seven starts he has four “quality starts” and every time out he has gone at least six innings. He’s had success by throwing strikes (his 2.54 BB/9 mark would be a career best) and by not being beaten like a piñata deep (0.78 HR/9 versus a career mark of 1.33).

Colby Lewis: His return to the States has gone swimmingly with a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.66 K/9 mark. You’d have to think he has been a bit fortunate given his 7.8 HR/F mark, .273 BABIP and 0.79 HR/9, but it has been a wonderful first seven starts with the Rangers.

Derek Holland: The arm of the future for the Rangers, Holland had a great first outing in which he held the A’s scoreless for six innings. He has the stuff to be successful for a decade, and it looks like the Rangers might move Matt Harrison to the bullpen to allow Holland to remain in the rotation.

To review:

Verlander is a horse.
Floyd and Beckett should rebound and be just fine.
Kazmir seems done.
Niemann is a nice arm to hold on to.
Zambrano – sooner or later I’m assuming he returns to starting.
LeBlanc is only a spot starter.
Myers is a solid depth arm.
Lewis is bringing the heat, but you might want to sell high.
Holland has tons of potential, but will he reach it in 2010?

By Ray Flowers