FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Do you like playing fantasy baseball? Do you like making money? Are you a fan of Sin City?

Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to buy that vacation home you always wanted?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for today’s contest that also gives you a chance to win part of the $24,000 in prizes for Friday’s event.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup, as well as those you would be wise to consider passing on for this Friday.

 Visit FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday, and if you are interested in using that info to make a few bucks, DailyJoust can help you out.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Beltran vs. Roy Halladay: Beltran is second in the NL with 27 homers. He’s also gone deep twice in four games and four times in 10 contests. The matchup might look like a tough one on paper, but Beltran has had a lot of success against the veteran Phillies’ ace going .326-2-10 in 43 at-bats.

Adam Jones vs. Luke Hochevar: Jones has hit .343 over his last 35 at-bats and he’s always enjoyed success against Hochevar with eight hits in 20 at-bats (.400-1-6).

Kendrys Morales vs. Felix Hernandez: Morales is hot. He’s hit .3555 with three homers in eight August games and he’s also hit .333 with a bomb and eight RBIs in 26 at-bats against the King.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Clay Buchholz vs. Indians: CB has been on quite the role of late as he’s allowed a total of four earned runs in his last four outings. That run of success just might be enough for him to overcome the fact that he’s got a 5.06 ERA in eight starts on the road this year.

Kyle Lohse vs. Phillies: He has a tough matchup against Roy Halladay, but with the way Lohse is pitching does it even matter? Not only has he won his last six decisions but Kyle has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He’s also posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Phils.

Paul Maholm vs. Mets: Once more into the breach… Maholm continues to be just about as hot as any pitcher in the game (even if few seem to be buying it. See Fleaflicker). The last seven times he has started he’s gone at least 6.2 innings each time. He’s also allowed one or zero runs six times with his only hiccup being the three runs he allowed last time out. When a guy is rolling like this you don’t ask questions you just say ‘thank you, may I have another?’

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Jerry Hairston Jr.: He is 0-for-12 the past week. Still, he’s hit .318 on the road this season and he’s always enjoyed success against Nolasco (8-for-16 with five doubles).

Reed Johnson vs. Johan Santana: Johan will be making his first start since hitting the DL with an ankle issue, and he was awful in his last three starts allowing 19 runs in his last 12.2 innings. Given that Johnson has hit .516 against Johan, that’s 16-for-31 folks, how do you not play Reed?

Carlos Lee vs. Joe Blanton: Lee is hitting .3109 since the All-Star break. He’s also rapping out hits at a .364 clip over his last 33 at-bats. When he faces Blanton he’s got nine hits in 18 at-bats, good for a cool .500 average.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: Do the Mariners even have a team anymore? Ichiro is gone, Smoak was demoted, Ackley can’t hit his weight. They are awful. Haren has predictably dominated the Mariners in his career with a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 20 starts and he’s also allowed just four runs in his last three starts as his back woes seem to have finally abated.

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Twins: For the season Hellickson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. For his career those numbers are 3.17 and 1.20. In eight games on the road this year he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. In three starts against the Twins in his career those numbers are 3.98 and 1.03. Can you spell consistency?

Francisco Liriano vs. Athletics: OK, so his leg is a bit sore. Still, that’s not enough to dissuade me from suggesting that Liriano makes a solid start Saturday. Liriano has faced current Athletics for 121 at-bats, and they have produced 22 hits leading to a .182/.233/.256 line. That’s a .489 OPS folks. Lock and load.

CONTESTS

Daily Joust is obviously still running baseball leagues for those of you diehard fans (give yourself a pat on the back for hanging in there given the incessant pushing of the NFL). However, if you’re also looking to sink you teeth into the football season, while concurrently still making it happen in baseball, they’ve got you covered there too. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June14, 2012

Each week on Thursday I’ll answer questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What order would you have Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson in a 5×5 points keeper league?
– @butlertj2002

Zimmerman posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and he’s picked right up where he left off with a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Extremely consistent, Jordan hasn’t allowed more than four runs in an outing this season, has permitted one run in half his starts 12 starts, and he’s lasted at least six innings every time he’s taken the hill. Why the success? One of the main reasons is that he just doesn’t beat himself. After walking a mere 1.73 batters per nine last year he’s dropped that number even further down to 1.51 per nine this year. If he can keep up that rate, and somehow hold on to the increase he’s working on in the ground ball rate from last season (his GB-rate is up to 52 percent) not much will likely be able to slow him down.

Moore has disappointed many with his 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but that’s because, frankly, expectations were too high with the rookie. Things are looking up though. In five of his last six starts he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs as his ERA has come down more than a run as he’s finally appeared to lock himself in on the hill. It’s not all lollipops and candy corn’s, he’s walking an unacceptable 4.33 batters per nine innings and he’s giving up a whopping 1.44 homers per nine innings, but there is still a lot going on here to really like, including the 9.31 K/9 rate that neither Hellickson or Zimmerman will ever be able to match.

Moore’s teammate, Jeremy Hellickson, has way better ratios than the power lefty (2.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but I’m still searching for a  real explanation as to how he has been so consistent since the start of last year. You hear a lot about the Rays solid defense and how Hellickson has changed how he throws his curve ball, but at the end of the day his success falls outside the realm of traditional analysis. Still, over his last 41 starts he has gone 17-12 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and that’s mighty impressive in the AL East. However, that inexplicable nature that I touched on can been seen in the following categories. Over those 41 starts his K/9 is 5.77. That’s well more than a batter below the league average in that time (7.04). His BB/9 is 3.45 and that’s worse than the league average (3.10). His left on base percentage is 83 percent, well above the league average of 70 percent. His GB/FB ratio is in the 0.80 range well below the league average of about 1.10. His BABIP is in the .230′s, light years from the .290-300 range that the league average usually fits in. The bottom line with Hellickson is that he doesn’t strike out enough batters, walks too many and is below league average in his ability to induce grounders, yet somehow he never gives up the amount of hits he should and he’s able to strand runners at a rate that we’ve rarely seen over the last 25 years. We’re going on two years of that middling work in some rather major categories and still he’s posted impressive numbers, but at some point doesn’t that run of inexplicable performance have to end?

All three hurlers deserve to be kept in most keeper leagues, barring some unforeseen bounty of Verlander’s and Lee’s on your squad. Moore has the biggest strikeout arm of the mix, and therefore the highest upside in the fantasy game. Zimmerman throws more strikes that Hellickson and it’s easier for me to explain why he has success, so he goes number two. Hellickson therefore comes in third, but that’s like finishing third for Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition cover – he’s still hotter than the overwhelming majority of pitchers in the big leagues.

Drop Dexter Fowler to get Trevor Plouffe?
– @kangashark

This world is all about what have you done for me lately. Think about it. When the Apple iPhone XXIV comes out you know you’ll drop your old model, even though it’s working totally fine. When that new LED flat screen came out, did you give away your plasma television? When Kate Upton burst on the scene with her ample assets did you drop your previous love for… wait, that one makes sense. Getting back on topic…

Fowler hit .239 in April and people hated him.
Fowler hit .333 in May and people loved him.
Fowler has hit .235 in June and people no longer trust him.

Take the case of Plouffe.
He hit .121 in April and was dropped in AL-only leagues.
He hit .185 in May and was dropped by his mother in AL-only leagues.
He has hit .400 with six homers in 10 games in June and people think he’s the next fantasy superstar.

So how would I play this? Plouffe has two main advantages over Fowler. (1) He qualifies at third base and shortstop in all leagues and in the outfield in most leagues. That versatility is tremendously valuable. (2) He has more power than Fowler. In 465 career at-bats the former first round draft pick has 21 homers. On the flip side, Fowler has a couple of significant advantages over Plouffe. (1) Fowler has way more speed than Plouffe has his steal total of six this season doubles Trevor’s career mark. (2) Fowler will never win a batting title but his worst month this season, .239 in April, is still better than Plouffe’s career mark (.228). (3) Fowler simply has the better all-around fantasy game. It’s been an uneven ride to this point but Fowler still has the look of a guy who could go hit .270 with 20 homers, 70 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals (his current pace).

I wouldn’t begrudge anyone adding/riding Plouffe while he is this hot, but I wouldn’t drop Fowler in order to make that happen.

Matt Wieters or Carlos Santana the rest of the season?
– @rangersjayfilm

Wieters posted a blistering .937 OPS in April but saw that number tank faster than the rapping career of Vanilla Ice with a .605 mark in May. He’s rebounded in June with a .830 mark but alas his .760 mark overall is .018 points lower than last season. On a positive level, Wieters 0.50 BB/K rate is a match for his level the past two years, and his 1.11 GB/FB ratio is spot on his mark from last season (well, it’s 0.01 off). Wieters also owns a line drive rate that is just 0.7 off last year’s level, his BABIP is down a mere .007 points while his HR/F ratio is 0.2 points up. Given that it’s hardly surprising that his current pace (23 homers, 70 RBI, 70 runs) is nearly identical to what he did last year (22 homers, 78 RBI, 72 runs).

Santana has failed to live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon his shoulders this year as he was often taken first off the board at the catchers position. After hitting 27 homers last year he has only five in 51 games this year. He’s also on pace to fall well off said pace with 24 runs scored (he crossed the plate 84 times last year). Heck, his batting average is down .012 points to .227 and his SLG is actually down an even .100 points (his .357 mark is just barely ahead of his .351 OBP from last season). His BB/K rate remains strong at 0.76, and his line drive rate is up at 21.5 percent (it was a mere 15.4 percent last year). Oddly, even though he’s hit liners at a substantially increased rate his BABIP has only gone up .011 point to .277.

In a dynasty league, these might be the top-2 options in the game behind the dish. As for the rest of the year, I’m going to toss my support behind Santana because he qualifies at two spots (catcher, first base) and because he has a better approach at the dish, but there really isn’t a wrong answer here (to see how others view these two catchers see Fleaflicker’s catcher rankings).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your wild party on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Dunn has seen his average dip from .240 to .214 over his past nine games though he has gone deep three times in that time. However, he has racked up 17 Ks (wow). So why mention him for today when he’s facing a lefty, his career long Kryptonite? For whatever reason he kills Wandy hitting .435 with two homers in 23 at-bats.

Raul Ibanez vs. Johan Santana: Ibanez has slumped down to .255 from .270 a little over a week ago, but Mr. Santana, you know Mr. No-Hitter, might be the tonic he needs to turn things around. Ibanez has racked up 16 hits and 10 RBI in 36 at-bats against Johan leading to a .348 batting average. By the way, Derek Jeter also lights Johan up with a .455 average in 33 at-bats.

Rickie Weeks vs. Edinson Volquez: Weeks has been in the discussion for the worst every day player in the NL hitting .160 with a .582 OPS. He’s also gone hitless, 0-for-12, in his last three games. So pull the trigger on starting him Friday? Why not. Against Volquez has has gone 6-for-12 with two homers.

*** Avoid Michael Young who has hit just .232 with a .601 OPS against Barry Zito in 82 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Felix Doubront vs. Phillies: In 27 innings at home this year he has 33 Ks, and over his last five starts he has allowed two or fewer runs each time for a total of eight runs allowed. The Nationals are near the bottom of the league with a .241 batting average an are also in the bottom five in baseball in runs scored (209).

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Marlins: I can’t always explain how he gets it done, but the bottom line is that he does. In 50 career starts he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding batter to a .218 average. Over his last nine outings this season he’s allowed two or one earned runs seven times with the other two outings resulting in just three runners crossing the plate.

Shaun Marcum vs. Padres: It might seem obvious to start any pitcher against the Padres, but there are also plenty o’ numbers to suggest it’s the right move with Marcum. Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB in three starts. Last two starts this year against the Dodgers and Pirates: 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.5 K/BB ratio over 14 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Damon vs. Kyle Lohse: When he isn’t busy making babies with his hot wife, Damon is lashing out hits against the righty from St. Louis. Damon has six hits in 16 at-bats against Lohse leading to a .375 average. Yes, that’s also a picture of Damon’s wife. I wouldn’t care if I got a hit either.

Prince Fielder vs. Bronson Arroyo: On paper this doesn’t look anything like a matchup that favors the Tigers’ slugger. Prince has hit just .238 in 42 at-bats against the righty from Cincy, but there is one obvious reason to play Fielder – power. Fielder has gone deep four times against Arroyo, and since the start of last season Bronson has given up a rather insane total of 54 long balls in 43 starts.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Gio Gonzalez: It’s only 11 at-bats of a matchup, but Youkilis has six hits, including a homer, leading to a .545 AVG an a 1.402 OPS. He’s also hit .303 with a .909 OPS at home in his career, and that’s over 482 games.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Matt Moore vs. Marlins: As a club the Fish are batting .233 with a .307 OBP and .401 SLG against left handed pitching, numbers that all lag behind the average big league hitter this season (.252/.318/.402). Moore has also seemingly started to find his groove as he’s allowed a total of five runs in his last three starts and he has 20 Ks over the 17.2 innings.

Chris Sale vs. Astros: It’s almost like taking candy from a baby, isn’t it? Sale has allowed a total of four runs over his last four starts as he has punched out 36 batters while issuing only seven walks in 4-straight victories. If things go according to plan, the Astros don’t stand a chance.

Jason Vargas vs. Dodgers: It’s a brutal matchup on paper as Vargas has to face the best left-handed pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. Owner of a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year, Vargas has flat out dominated at home this year with a 1.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts and in 49 career games at Safeco he is 18-16 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

CONTESTS

It’s Friday, and that means it’s time to win a few bucks thanks to DailyJoust.com. Sign up for a Free Roll and try your chances, or you can join any other number of daily fantasy baseball games that include home run derby’s, survivor pools and a chance to win a trip to the 2012 MLB All-Star game.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers 

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jeremy Hellickson

The AL Rookie of the Year, Jeremy Hellickson had a wonderful season in 2011 as he won 13 games, posted a 2.95 ERA and had a 1.15 WHIP over 29 starts covering 189 innings. He completely deserved the ROY award as Hellickson did exactly what everyone though he would do – he pitched very well. None of his pitches are elite, but his ability to mix and match his pitches, and to locate the ball, led to some impressive results. Will he replicate that effort in 2012?

Hellickson didn’t tire late in the year as he lasted at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings. He also performed well allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of those eight outings. Moreover, Hellickson actually posted a better ERA in the second half than the first (2.64 versus 3.21), while his WHIP went up only a hundredth to 1.16. Not bad at all. Hellickson should be capable of throwing 200-innings in 2012, and with his skills that makes him someone you really need to pay attention to.

Though Hellickson’s ability to “pitch” is well advanced beyond his years, I do worry a bit about some of the things we saw on the field in his first full season. A strong strikeout performer in the minors, Jeremy posted a K/9 mark of 8.17 in 36.1 innings in his first season. Last year that number dropped all the way down to 5.57. Remember, I tend to avoid starters that don’t have a mark of at least 6.00. He may not be an 8.00 K/9 kind of guy in the bigs, but he really needs to recapture some of what he lost if he wants to maintain his ratios from 2011 in the future (his minor league mark was 9.8).

Hellickson walked 1.98 batters per nine in his first season, and last year that number grew substantially to 3.43 per nine. Given that the big league average for walks in 2011 was 3.11 per nine, we’re talking about a K deficient pitcher who walks more batters than an average big league hurler. That doesn’t shout out 2.98 ERA, especially in the AL.

Unfortunately for Hellickson, he allows a few too many fly balls as well, the result being another below big league average mark of 0.78 in GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). Not enough K’s to be average, Too many walks to be average. An inability to produce a big league mark in GB/FB… are you starting to see why Hellickson might be slightly over-drafted in 2012?

Further confirmation of why you should be slightly concerned with a repeat effort in 2012 follows.

Hellickson posted a left on base percentage of 82.0 percent. That mark was was the second highest in baseball (Jered Weaver was at 82.6), and it is not a mark that Hellickson will be able to repeat in 2012 (don’t forget the big league average is about 70 percent). If Hellickson has a strong year in 2012 he’d probably be up around 75 percent. He’s not hitting 80 percent again, and this fact alone puts his ERA in some jeopardy. Further concern should be raised by the fact that Hellickson’s xFIP last year was 4.72, nearly a full run higher than the 3.83 mark he posted in 2010. Even if we split the difference there, we’re talking about a similar performance in 2012 likely resulting in an ERA in the mid-3′s, not below 3.00.

As I’ve already said, Hellickson has an advanced understanding of how to pitch for a fella with only 225.1 innings in his big league career. However, the chances of him repeating his ERA and WHIP numbers in 2012, if he doesn’t change a whole bunch of things about his performance, are rather small. I’m not saying he is going to fail, he is too talented for that, but I’m warning you that it might be wise to avoid building your pitching staff around the young, talented righty from the Rays.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 9, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I receive questions on a 24 hour basis. Here are some of those questions and my thoughts.

I have to keep two: Jeremy Hellickson, C.J. Wilson and Justin Masterson. Which two stay?
– @BradfordEra

Ah, gotta love those shallow leagues.

Hellickson has a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his rookie season as he has been as good as advertised. Unlike other rookies, he is showing no signs of fading either as he has allowed two runs in his last two starts and three of fewer in each of his last eight outings. In fact, seven of those eight times on the hill have produced a “quality start.” There is no reason to turn away from him at this point.

Wilson bounced back in his last outing with nine Ks and two earned runs allowed after getting lit up for 10 earned runs (13 total) in his previous two outings. He’s been pretty uneven of late permitting four or more earned runs four times in his last nine starts while in the other five he’s allowed two or fewer. Still, he has 29 Ks in 29.1 innings over his last five starts, and despite the two shelling his ERA is a palatable 3.99 in that time.

Masterson has been on quite a role as well. Over his last 10 starts he has lowered his ERA from 3.18 down to 2.63 as only once has he allowed more than four runs. Moreover, he’s actually allowed as many as four earned runs only twice in those 10 starts. He’s also been locked in when it comes to throwing strikes as he has walked a total of 11 batters in those 10 outings.

So who do you drop? None really. All are pitching well and all sport solid skills that speak to the ability of each to carry on the solid work they have offered to this point. If pressed to drop one I’d move on from Masterson, but as you can tell, I’m really not a fan of doing that.

I Lost Chase Headley/Daniel Murphy/Adrian Beltre to injuries …need a 3B…Casey McGehee, Danny Valencia or David Freese?
– @IsabelTrent

That’s about as bad a run of luck as anyone could possible fall in. Brutal.

Do you want to add Freese given your lack of luck? Freese is expected to return to the Cards lineup on Tuesday from a concussion that he suffered Thursday last week. He should be fine, but given your run of injury, do you have the stomach to add Freese? If you do you would be adding a guy who is batting .320 this year and one who owns a .308 career mark in 465 at-bats. The guy can hit no doubt, even if his power reminds you more of Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt.

Valencia has quietly been a solid run producer this season. Danny has 12 homers on the year, just one less than Alex Rodriguez. He has 58 RBI, the same total as Evan Longoria. He has 42 runs scored, the same total as Chase Headley. There are negatives with Valencia, chiefly his .242 average and .287 OBP, but he has been moving the arrow there as well of late. Since the start of July Valencia has hit .291 with a .319 OBP. OK, the OBP is awful, but the .291 average is much more like the rookie who hit .311 last year in Minnesota.

McGehee was great in two thirds of a season in 2009, and last year he posted 23 homers and 104 RBI. He was going in the top-10 at third base in almost all drafts this season. McG then proceeded to hit .218 in May and .177 in June as he hit one long ball in 51 games. Unbelievable. However, he’s awoken of late with 12 RBI in his last 10 games, and with that big three homer game on August 3rd he caught everyone’s attention. I would add Valencia here. However, if you don’t mind rolling the dice when you could end up crapping out, Freese would be an intriguing add batting behind Berkman, Holliday and Pujols in St. Louis.

Is Jesus Montero worth grabbing for cheap in a league that keeps 10 players now?
– @Trevorpace24

The short answer is yes, add Montero. As for the reasons, there are a couple that really stand out..

First, Montero will one day be a middle of the order bat on a championship level team. He’s always flashed an elite level stick, and scouts will tell you that the ball just jumps off his bat. Now he’s had some issues with concentration and focus this season, and it’s not like his numbers at Triple-A jump off the page (.289-11-51 in 90 games), but you can just see the potential oozing out of his pours.

Second, the Yankees offense has a black hole right now at designated hitter. Jorge Posada has been filling the role for much of the season, but it’s time to face facts – he just hasn’t gotten it done this year with a .231 average, a .309 OBP and a sickly .372 SLG  How does that line compare to his career levels? Atrociously – .273/.374/.474. Posada has also gone 27 games without going deep, and during that time he has all of four RBI. He’s also hitting a mere .103 against lefties on the year (58 at-bats), and he has looked totally lost on the road (.173/.254/.276 with two homers). If not for all the offensive fireworks going on around him this year in New York his failings would be more front and center. Moreover, a report Monday in The Journal News says Posada’s rope may have finally run out.  “[Manager Joe Girardi] said he was going to put the best lineup on the field, and he doesn’t know when I’m going to DH again,” Posada said. “So right now I’m sitting on the bench.”

The supposition is that Montero could be called up from the minors to take over the bulk of the designated hitter duties. Even if Montero doesn’t play a major role this season, adding him in a league that protects 10 players is a good idea. Catcher eligible players who can blast 25 homers are rare, and in a worst case scenario Jesus would have a whole lot of value if you wanted to trade him. After all, everyone loves rookies almost as much as they love those Yankees.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Hurlers to Hold?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Are pitchers performing as expected? For that matter, will they continue along their current path? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on five hurlers and let you know whether or not I have faith in them being big time contributors to your fantasy squad the rest of the way.

Madison Bumgarner: The Giants’ young lefty is 0-6 and has started off horribly. Or has he? Each of his last four appearances have resulted in a “quality start” as he has produced a 1.80 ERA an a 1.00 WHIP in that time. MadBum, as he is affectionately known, also has a strong 9.00 K/9 mark and a 4.17 K/BB ratio in those four trips out to the bump. If his current owner is dismayed because of his ghastly record, or middling overall WHIP of 1.42, now is the time to bounce cause Bumgarner is back after a terrible start.

Jeremy Hellickson: The Rays’ rookie has won three straight starts and has gone 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings to drop his ERA to 2.98. All of a sudden, everyone is taking notice again almost as if they forgot that this guy was one of the top-10 prospects in baseball heading into the year. I’m concerned a bit that his K/9 rate is under six, especially when his BB/9 rate is so average (3.57), to say nothing of his poor 0.87 GB/FB. Basically everything he has done to this point suggests a “league average” fantasy performer, despite his wonderful last two outings. Hellickson’s understanding of pitching is elite for someone who hasn’t even thrown 85 innings as a big league so perhaps he will be able to work his way around some less than stellar measurables, but be wary – he’s not yet the pitcher he will be one day.

Phil Humber: The White Sox don’t want to remove Humber from the rotation so they are foolishly going with a 6-man rotation (I yearn for the days of 4-man rotations, so the Sox are going in the wrong direction here). Humber has a 3.18 ERA and 0.95 WHIP so you can see why the Sox want to keep throwing him, but it’s smoke and mirrors. His GB/FB ratio of 0.95 is below league average. His 5.16 K/9 is below big league average. His HR/9 mark of 0.40 is half of his career rate (0.84). His BABIP of .213 is .065 points below his career rate despite a line drive rate that is just one percent off normal. I’m not taking what he has done away from him, I’m just pointing out that it would be a minor miracle if he was able to keep up this level of performance over the course of the season.

Jason Marquis: Really? Do I need to even address Marquis? Quickly – he is a league average pitcher at best. He never strikes anyone out – he hasn’t had a K/9 mark of 6.00 since 2004, and despite his current walk rate of 1.69 per nine, he is completely average in that realm as well (his BB/9 mark has been at least 3.00 every one of his previous 11 seasons). It’s really as simple as that. He’s not the guy who posted a 6.60 ERA last year, but he’s also not going to post his first sub 4.00 ERA since 2004 either. He’s a passable spot starter in a mixed league if you are desperate, but he’s likely to be nothing more than an innings eater in an NL-only format.

Alexei Ogando: One word – phenomenal. Through seven starts Ogando has gone at least six innings each time out, and only once has he allowed more than two earned runs leading to a 2.06 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. However, you don’t need me to tell you that there is no way he can perform this well all season, but here is the proof. (1)  His K/9 rate is down two full batters from last season though he’s somehow managed to lower his walk rate by a batter and a half. (2) His homer rate is triple what it was last season. The two most damning numbers follow. (3) Ogando has a .193 BABIP. There is NO way that number stays that low. I don’t normally make such declarative statements like that, but I’m 100 percent convinced. Why? Somehow Ogando has undershot the big league BABIP average by .100 points even though his line drive rate is two percent above the big league average (21.8 percent). Simply, the dude has been exceedingly lucky. Amazingly so actually. (4) Ogando has a left on base percentage of 95 percent. While the big league average is 70 percent, a couple of guys each year crest 80 percent. Still, 95 percent is a level that is impossible to sustain, a fact that is driven home by his xFIP mark of 3.91. Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers