Around the Horn: Feb.10, 2010

(1) Mike Jacobs signs with Mets. Will battle Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis for playing time.

(2) Todd Wellemeyer joins the Giants. Likely to be used as long-man.

(3) Johnny Damon considering offers from Braves and Tigers.

(4) Jermaine Dye willing to play first base.

(5) Will Gary Sheffield continue career? Lost 15 lbs to get ready as he mulls over offers.

(6) Cardinals SS Brendan Ryan has wrist surgery. Will he be OK by Opening Day?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.8, 2010

(1) The Yankees sign Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

(2) Carlos Beltran continues bickering with Mets.

(3) Ty Wigginton on the move with additions of Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada?

(4) Why can’t Jermaine Dye find a team?

(5) Brian Giles joins Dodgers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 14, 2010

Today, I’ll take a look around MLB. (1) The latest on Carlos Beltran’s knee surgery. (2) Brad Lidge has second surgery this off-season. (3) Adam LaRoche signs with D’backs. (4) Josh Johnson wants 4 years. Will he get it? (5) Johnny Damon to Braves? (6) Joel Zumaya agrees to deal. (7) Jermaine Dye to Cubs? (8) Dodgers need starting pitching.

By Ray Flowers

Rumor Central – Turkey Style

Now that I’ve worked through my turkey induced coma (not that I’m complaining mind you), I thought it would be wise to take a look around the landscape of major league baseball and give my thoughts on a few of the players who are rumored to be on the move either through trades or by signing with a new team do to their free agent status.

Orlando Cabrera: With the recent signing of other shortstops to decent sized deals, you would have to think that Cabrera is in line for at least a nice two year deal. Hell, Jack Wilson got 2-years and $10 million from the Mariners. Wilson is a fine defensive player, but he can’t hold Cabrera’s jock as an offensive weapon. Consider that Cabrera has hit at least .281 with 83 runs and 171 hits in each of his last four seasons. Wilson? He has hit .281 twice in his career, has never scored more than 82 runs and has only once eclipsed 171 hits in his nine years. How could Cabrera not get at least $10 mil armed with those facts?

Jermaine Dye: Jermaine has socked at least 27 homers with 78 or more RBI in each of the last five seasons. However, he will be 36 in January and hit a pathetic .179 with seven homers over his final 212 ABs causing a lot of teams some trepidation. Dye has attempted to rectify that feeling by offering to play first base to increase his versatility on the field, and it might be working. Rumors are swirling that he could end up in Texas or sign on the dotted with the Orioles, Giants, Mets or Braves. He still has 25 homer pop, but he might find it difficult to put up big time totals outside of the hitters’ haven that is U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago.

Roy Halladay: The biggest name on the market, every day seems to bring a new rumor (he has most often been linked to the Red Sox, Angels and Yankees – of course). What seems obvious is that the Jays are almost certain to move him and that the return will be plentiful for one of the top-5 hurlers in the game.

Matt Holliday: The top hitter on the market, Holliday appears rather content to go to the club that offers him the most loot – hardly and oddity considering that Scott Boras is his agent. He will break the bank with a flooring of $100 million merely being enough to get a conversation started.

Edwin Jackson: Coming off a career season (13-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Jackson’s name has been mentioned in a series of potential deals since the season ended. The Tigers need to cut payroll, Detroit has been especially hard hit with the economic downturn, and it looks like Jackson is their most moveable chip. It might also have something to do with his second half implosion (5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .290 BAA). Buyer beware here – we may look back on ’09 as a career best effort.

Ben Sheets: Floating out there after missing last year do to arm surgery. The Mets and Orioles appear to be the most interested in the moment, though many teams would bite at the right price (just as they would with Erik Bedard). It remains to be seen just what Sheets has left, but he posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 ERA in 198.1 innings in 2008 and is one mighty intriguing option as a short-term, discounted pickup.

Marco Scutaro: Marco will not be back with the Blue Jays who seemed intent on moving on since the season concluded. To that end, they signed defensively gifted but offensively ineffective John MacDonald to a 2-year, $3 million deal. They then entered the free agent market and picked up Alex Gonzalez on a 1-year, $2.75 million deal. Gonzalez is also a fine defensive shortstop, and though he has some pop and offers more offense than MacDonald, he hit only .238 with 41 RBI for the Red Sox and Reds last season. I have no idea what Scutaro will eventually sign for, but seems to me that the Blue Jays could have offered him $4.25 a year (what they paid to the other two) on a multi year deal and had a chance to bring back a guy who, in the very least, will dwarf the others in his ability to get on base (he had a .379 OBP last year).

Billy Wagner: It looks like multiple teams are throwing their hats into the Wagner sweepstakes. This is hardly a shock given his track record and success last season when he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 1.72 ERA while racking up 26 punchouts in a mere 15.2 innings. He could end up as a dominating setup man or a 1-year closer depending on who he signs with. The 38 year old still deserves serious consideration on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Free Agency – A Look Ahead

With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.

Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.

Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.

Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?

Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.

Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.

Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.

Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).

Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).

Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.

Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?

Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).

Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.

Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).

By Ray Flowers

All-Star Festivities

All is right in the world of baseball after last night’s Home Run Derby. Well maybe not, and you know me, I’ve always got something stuck in my craw to complain about, that’s why you all love me isn’t it?

The Game Contestants

What is the point of having a set roster if half the guys are going to pull out with some injury resulting in a replacement being added? I don’t know, guess I’m just bitter that Pablo Sandoval didn’t make it despite all the late additions. Have I mentioned that bitterness before? Think I have. Gotta tell you though, the additions of Carlos Pena and Nelson Cruz just don’t make any sense to me at all.

Pena leads the NL in home runs with 24, but he also is second in the league with 111 Ks while his batting average of .228 is 76th amongst qualifiers. The homers are great, and sure his team did a great job last year making it to the Series, but seriously? Just an awful choice.

Cruz doesn’t deserve to be in the All-Star game, and I’ll prove that in a second. Still, the man can rip it in BP so he was certainly a welcomed edition to the HR Derby. Why doesn’t he deserve to be on the team? Let’s compare his work to another AL outfielder who didn’t make the game.

Cruz: .263-22-53
Dye: .302-20-55

Dye is clearly ahead. The distance between the two only enlarges when we look deeper.

Cruz: .326 OBP, .539 SLG
Dye: .375 OBP, .567 SLG

Again Dye is ahead, and overall his OPS is .077 points higher. Does anyone really think the 13 stolen base advantage Cruz enjoys overcomes that? Not me, especially when we note that Cruz has hit all of .212 over his last 118 ABs.

Home Run Derby

Don’t know if anyone bothered to add it up, but we all know that the AL’s foursome in the HR Derby is a bit of a joke. Entering the contest the four, Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Pena and Brandon Inge, have a total of 407 career home runs. Over in the NL, Albert Pujols has hit 351 just by himself.

Anyone besides me think that Chris Berman and his “back, back, back” call should go all the way back to the bench? Once upon a time it was cute, not it’s just annoying.

I wonder how much MLB is selling those special “gold balls” for (the money ball the players were hitting when they got down to their last out)? A quick check of MLB’s website shows that they only cost $34.99. You can either buy one of them or take your girlfriend out for a couple of drinks to loosen her up. I know how I would spend my 35 bucks.

What the hell is that yellow/green line that ESPN was using to track the baseball’s flight? Is it me or did that bring back nightmares of the NHL’s attempt with the glowing red puck a couple years back. Silly me, I thought I was watching a major league baseball event and not playing an interactive video game.

How long should a HR Derby last? Seems to me that 14 hours, or however long it went, is too much.

Erin Andrews is the perfect combination of the blonde bombshell looks, the voice, and the knowledge of the game. It certainly doesn’t hurt that she is beautiful, but she knows her stuff. Unfortunately she might need to hire a new wardrobe consultant. What was that bumble bee colored get up she was wearing at the Derby? Not that I really cared mind you.

Having recently been in St. Louis I can speak to the great atmosphere of the park and the interest of the fans who were great. How is it that baseball hasn’t had an All-Star game there in 43 years? I’d throw out the word pathetic, but you know what I think about Mr. Selig and his cronies – I’m never really shocked at what they fail to do.
I can’t help it. For some reason every time I hear Steve Phillips I come away impressed. I know Mets fans are throwing tomatoes at me right now.

What’s the deal with the running foot marker for the balls while in flight? What is this, a video game? Wait, didn’t I already make this point? Baseball isn’t meant to be “cute” guys, so leave it be.

By Ray Flowers

The Case for Jim Thome

Late last week I touched on how I thought it was time that we gave Ken Griffey Jr. more respect than we have of late given the latest performance enhancing drug scandal surrounding Sammy Sosa (you can read all of my thoughts in Death of the Hero?). In that piece I also mentioned, briefly, the name of today’s discussion and that is Jim Thome, who, remarkably unnoticed, has gone about producing one of the most impressive power hitting careers in the history of baseball.

That last statement isn’t hyperbolic in nature by the way. Consider the following data points with Thome.

(1) In his last 12 seasons of at least 400 at-bats, he had only 193 in an injury plagued 2005 campaign, Thome has hit at least 30 home runs.

(2) In those 12 seasons, Thome has knocked in at least 85 runs, and 11 times he has posted at least 90 RBI.

Let’s put those numbers in context.

Thome has 12 seasons of 30 home runs and 85 RBI. That just so happens to be the third most such seasons in baseball history behind only Hank Aaron (14), Mike Schmidt (13) and Babe Ruth (13). Moreover, his total of twelve 30-HR seasons is tied for the fourth most in history (Aaron leads the way here as well with 15).

(3) Thome has averaged, per 162 games in his career, a .278-40-112-107 line. Think about it this way – do you know how many seasons matching all four of those numbers that Albert Pujols has produced in his astounding career? Four. And remember, that is Thome’s average over his career per 162 games.

(4) Thome has always been a remarkable on base machine with a .406 career OBP. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 46th place all-time. By the by, his OBP has been at least .385 in 12 of the past 14 seasons. Ryan Howard has only two seasons above .360 in his career.

(5) Thome is the proud owner of a .559 SLG in his career. Amongst hitters who have accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in their career that number places Thome in 19th place all-time. Justin Morneau has only one season that high, and it was exactly .559 in 2006.

(6) Thome’s career OPS is a superlative .965, the 18th best mark in league annals for a batter with at least 3,000 plate appearances. Fellow teammate and slugger Jermaine Dye has only one full season where his mark has bettered that when it was 1.006 in 2006.

So when we add that all up, here is what we come up with.

Thome is eighth on my all-time “clean” home run list (you can find the list at the link at the start of the piece), 46th in OBP, 19th in SLG and 18th in OPS. Toss in his 1,459 runs scored that are 73rd all-time and his 1,527 RBI that are 46th all-time, and this is what we have.

Thome is one of just 11 players in baseball history to hit 400 home runs, knock in 1,500 runs, score 1,400 times and post an OPS of at least .950.

Given all that, does Thome deserve to make the Hall of Fame? Being that his power seems nothing more than corn-fed from growing up in the heartland of American (he was born in Illinois), you seriously have to consider the man for enshrinement in the Hall. The biggest negative is the fact that he has functioned as a DH late in his career though in 2,216 career games he has appeared at first base 1,101 times and third base 492 times, so it’s not like he has been a DH only weapon for the majority of his career (to compare Reggie Jackson, who cannot match Thome’s lifetime numbers, is in the Hall despite 630 games at DH versus Thome’s total of 633). If the voters can look past his merely average batting average of .278, and consider that his name has never been linked to performance enhancing drugs, then I think this lefty swinging slugger has a great shot at having a plaque one day in Cooperstown.

By Ray Flowers

A Day in the Life

Today in my survey o’ the world of baseball, we will spend some time detailing a couple of big bats in Chicago, a speedster in Cincinnati and the plight of a first round fantasy stud whose season is teetering on the brink of irrelevance due to injury.

Let me get this straight. Jake Fox hit a blistering .424 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI in just 41 games at Triple-A this season doing his best Rogers Hornsby imitation. He was then called up to the Cubs where he went 5-for-12 (.417). His reward? He was sent back to Triple-A Iowa. With Derrek Lee finally starting to turn things around at first base – he has hit .345 with a .457 OBP in his last 15 games – the Cubs just weren’t able to find any room on the diamond for Fox since they don’t trust his glove at third base. If you are Fox, how disappointed are you right now? You’ve knocked in a run a game and are hitting better than Ted Williams ever did yet you cannot even find a way to convince your team to find a bench spot for you. Don’t know about you, but if that was me I would be calling my agent telling him I want the hell out of there immediately.

The White Sox made a distressing announcement today, though I cannot say that it wasn’t somewhat expected. Carlos Quentin, on the sidelines with plantar fasciitis in his foot, will likely be out until at least the All-Star game. For his part, Quentin stated that the injury isn’t really PF, it’s actually a torn tendon in his left foot. No matter what the actual injury, the bottom line is that Quentin will remain sidelined for at least another month. What this likely means is that potential free agent Jermaine Dye (there is a mutual option for $12 million for 2010), and his 15 home runs will not be traded, that is if the White Sox think they can still contend despite a 27-32 record. The White Sox simply need a big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to remain competitive, and with Quentin out, Dye is their best option though Paul Konerko hasn’t been bad at the dish with a .295-8-39 line this season.

Grady Sizemore, already on the DL due to a strained elbow, will be held out of baseball activity for another five days at which time an MRI will be performed to determine whether or not the joint has healed sufficiently to allow him to return to the diamond. Don’t know about you, but I’m thinking that he will eventually need arthroscopic surgery. What is clear is that with nine home runs and seven steals, Sizemore won’t be going 30/30 this season like he did last year, and in fact he may be hard pressed to go 20/20, a total he has reach in each of the past four seasons. Actually Sizemore has hit at least 22 home runs, with at least 22 steals and at least 100 runs in each of the last four seasons, and that is the third longest such streak in baseball history (tied with Carlos Beltran and Barry Bonds). Willie Mays is the all-time leader with six straight seasons from 1955-60 while the second man on the list is Bobby Bonds with a stretch of five-straight years from 1969-1973. As for Beltran, he has eight home runs, seven steals and 34 runs putting him on pace for about 23 home runs, 20 steals and 98 runs, so he’ll need to kick things up a notch himself is he wants to move into a second place tie on the list.

Willy Taveras is 0-for-16 and as a result his average has dropped to .250 on the season. Even worse for a leadoff hitter, his OBP is just .307 which has caused the Reds to drop him to second in the order. “Willy is my leadoff man,” manager Dusty Baker said. “It’s temporary.” Apparently the fact that Taveras is hitting .250 with a .308 OBP over his last 663 ABs dating back to the start of last season doesn’t matter to Baker and the Reds as they seem stuck on the fact that Willy T. has posted 80 steals since the start of last season. That’s great guys, but do you really need someone to tell you that steals are wonderful, but they don’t matter if you don’t get on base enough to be an effective weapon out of the leadoff spot?

By Ray Flowers

Odd Decisions Run Wild

I don’t quite get it. Of course, I can be alternative dense and obtuse, just ask some of the women that have been unfortunate enough to have been forced to endure a date with me when there wasn’t the option of getting drunk to dull the pain. After I finish my mini-rant on how baseball continues to screw things up, I’ll spend a moment detailing perhaps the top two minors league pitchers in each league and give a little run down on how they are doing toiling away riding buses instead of finding themselves flying in first class (I’ve never flown in first class, have you? I’m 6’3″ so I’m sure I would enjoy the extra space because I usually end up squished between someone who is overweight and someone who wants to share with me their entire life story. Speaking of planes, why can’t I ever end up in the same row as the hottie that always ends up three rows in front of me?)

Milton Bradley had his suspension reduced from two games to one after filing an appeal for a confrontation that he had with an umpire while arguing a called third strike. Two points. (1) The event occurred on April 16th. What the hell took so long to come to a resolution? Players certainly have the right to the defend themselves in the process, but has anyone heard of a conference call or a webcam? It this day and age of technology taking a month to adjudicate this matter is simply laughable. (2) What is the point of MLB issuing any suspensions when they are ALWAYS, and I mean always, reduced? What gives? Do you think I could say to the judge at traffic court ‘I know I ran that stop sign, and I know the fine is $185, but you know, I really didn’t mean to do it, and I promise to behave moving forward, so could you reduce the fine to $100?’ Seriously? Whatever a player gets for a suspension, just cut that number by half and you will usually end up with the actual number of games he will end up serving (Jermaine Dye was suspended for two games after firing his helmet down in disgust only to have the helmet flip up and hit the umpire. Of course he appealed so he will continue playing for now, but regardless, expect his suspension to be reduced to one game). My question is, if the player committed an act that leads to a suspension of X many games, why does he even get an appeal, or better yet, why does the appeal always end up in a reduced sentence? I’m glad baseball doesn’t adjudicate criminal matters or there might not be a single criminal in jail.

Jo-Jo Reyes has been removed from the Braves’ starting rotation, hardly a shock when you consider that he is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through five starts (he is 0-9 with a 6.58 ERA covering his last 18 starts). So this means that the Tommy Hanson era is upon us, right? Wrong. The Braves chose instead to call up Kris Medlin from Triple-A where the 23 year old has been lights out with a 4-0 record and a 1.07 ERA. Oh yeah, he hasn’t allowed a run in 19.2 innings. As for Hanson, he will continue to bide his time a bit longer despite a 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.61 K/9 mark in seven starts at Triple-A. Not sure what else the kid can do to earn a call up really.

David Price, everyone’s fantasy darling this season as the next big lefty to make his mark on the majors – well those plans were put on hold when the club decided to send him to the minors to get him some more seasoning as well as to find spots for a handful of pitchers at the big league level that would have had to have been placed on waivers if Price was left on the big league roster. Still, everyone assumed that Price would make a handful of starts, dominate, and then return to the Rays, but things haven’t gone remotely to plan thus far. Working at Triple-A, Price is a mere 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.50 ERA through seven starts. He does have 26 K in 29.1 innings, but with 16 walks his K/BB mark is a poor 1.63. In addition, the club has been very careful with his pitch count having not once allowed him to throw more than five innings, though to be fair it’s not like he has been lights out or anything and deserved to go more than five innings in most outings. Still, his level of struggles just go to show you that this game is not an exact science, and no matter how much talent you have it’s never as easy as just throwing your glove out on the field.