The Sad State of Baseball

I hate this entire performance enhancing drugs mess in baseball. This story just won’t die. It seems like on an almost daily basis there is some new revelation about a player, or group of players, who alleged cheated. I’ve resisted writing about the topic for the most part, I feel almost like it’s beneath me to get down into the gutter with all of this mess, but alas, the story just won’t go away. So something I never do here at BaseballGuys.com – I’m actually going to write an editorial with little relevance, at least directly, to the world of fantasy sports.

Some bullet point thoughts on the whole disaster.

1 – If any player cheated shame on them. They’ve brought shame on themselves, their families, their teams and the fans that support them. If a player cheated, and it can be proven, they should be punished. Period.

2 – The key phrase of the previous statement is “proven.” In this society we rush to judgment so quickly. We want the news immediately. We get annoyed if we have to wait in line for three minutes to get out coffee or if a web page takes nine seconds to load. Instant gratification is the key term for today. That being said, we also seem want to accept every story as truth. Take the recent PED accusations coming out of Florida. It seems that we have grown so weary of the entire PED mess, especially on the heels of the recent admission by Lance Armstrong that he did indeed take banned substances after years of violently defending himself against such accusations, that we’re willing to exceptany story at face value. I’m not saying the recent reports from Florida aren’t accurate. I’ve got no way of knowing whether they are or aren’t. But I will tell you that we’ve all been fooled before. Ever heard of the Piltdown Man? How about the singing group Milli Vanilli? And I don’t even know what to say about the whole Manti Te’o situation. The point is that there are plenty of times when the public has accepted a story without knowing the truth. Let’s be careful not to do that again here. Let’s give the process time to unravel the mystery and get to the truth of the matter.

3 – What is the evidence against the players recently implicated? A series of documents from a clinic in Florida. I’m not saying they are fraudulent or fabricated, but has anyone ever written down something that wasn’t true? We’ve all done that. Isn’t Wall Street filled with people who make claims that simply aren’t true (Bernard Madoff famously fooled everyone with a Ponzi scheme in which he apparently defrauded people of nearly $65 billion dollars). Just because a source reports something “officially” doesn’t make it so. Do we believe the evidence form Florida in regards to the list of players that continues to seemingly increase by the hour?

4 – Even if the documents are authentic, what does that prove? That’s the whole problem with this entire situation in major league baseball. We’re talking about things that happened years ago in many cases. There’s no medical proof of any of this. No drug tests. No blood tests. No urine tests. There is no direct proof of any of it. TO BE CLEAR, I’m not saying we should indemnify players of responsibility here, I’m merely pointing out that there is no direct link to players in the majority of these cases except in testimony from shady characters and in documents that may or may not represent reality. And this is the biggest quandary in sports at the moment in relation to the PED mess. We’re trying to prove something that we can’t prove. I have no idea if Ryan Braun took PEDs two years ago. With this being the second time in two years that his name has surfaced in connection to alleged cheating his window for support continues to narrow, but where is the proof that stands up in court? I just don’t see it. Until we have that we can be skeptical of any player linked at all to any of this, including Braun, but are you really ready to turn your back on a player merely because of an accusation that hasn’t been proven.

Have you ever been arrested or detained by the police for something you didn’t do? Have you ever been accused of lying by your boss when you weren’t? Has a significant other ever thought you were messing around with an ex of yours when you weren’t? We’ve all been accused of things that aren’t true.

I’m not going to say that players are innocent. In my heart of hearts I know they aren’t. I know it. But the fact is that so much of what we accept as truth in the sports world of late isn’t provable. It’s the old he said/she said thing with two sides offering totally different reasons for what occurred (Braun’s team says they are in the records of the Miami medical clinic because they were using the clinic as paid consultants when Braun was fighting his positive test prior to last season and that it has nothing to do with him purchasing drugs from the clinic). Will time allow us to resovle this issue? Will we ever get clarity on some of these matters? I fear we won’t for many. Let’s just hope that MLB finds a better way to test players so that we can put an end to the mess that I fear will engulf the game to the point that it will tarnish everything positive that has happened on the field. That would be an utter shame.

* Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013. At this point, I’m not downgraded guys like Gio Gonzalez, Jesus Montero, Nelson Cruz and Braun, not until we get more clarity with what is going on.

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 15: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Bronson Arroyo (+123, $357K in DailyJoust Salary)
Arroyo is one of those guys that you begrudgingly draft, and then more times than not he does something to help you. Though just 4-5 on the season, he’s been pretty solid this year, especially of late. Over his last two starts he’s allowed two runs in 15 innings, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six trips to the hill. His 6.13 K/9 rate is a four year best, and his 1.49 BB/9 rate would be a career best mark,m so it’s fair to ponder how long he will be able to keep his current pace up.

Michael Fiers (+64, $411K)
Since being inserted into the Brewers rotation all this guy has done is have success. In eight appearances this season he’s posted a 2.31 ERA, has a 1.07 WHIP, has a better than 5:1 K/BB ratio, and has 50 Ks in 46.2 innings. Yeah, he’s been that dominating if you hadn’t noticed (he’s only owned in 14 percent of Fleaflicker leagues). Over his last five starts he has allowed three runs, and over his last three outings he’s struck out 26 batters. The only thing keeping him from being a national success story is that 3-3 record, but you can’t blame him for that since he’s pitching about as well as anyone in the game.

Jeff Karstens (+74, $342)
After missing two months due to injury, Karstens is back to getting batters out. Last year he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This year in six starts he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Even better, over his last two starts, both victories, he has allowed two earned runs in 15 innings while, shockingly, piling up 15 Ks. That’s all well and good, but let’s keep it real here. Karstens really isn’t a 3.38 ERA type of guy. His career K-rate is below the league average, and his 6.75 mark this season is a batter an a half above his mark the last two seasons. He’s not likely to hold on to that. He’s also been hit pretty hard despite the outward appearance, and his 2.5 percent HR/F is literally a quarter of normal. Parlay his solid numbers into a better arm if you can.

Jason Vargas (+109, $379)
Through 19 starts Vargas has a 1.15 WHIP. Pretty dang good. He’s also been able to lower his ERA from 4.66 to 4.07 over his last three starts as he’s permitted just four runners to cross the plate. He’s also, and I have no idea how this is possible, posted 22 Ks over his last 23.2 innings. Given that his total of 131 strikeouts last season was a career best it’s pretty obvious that you can’t expect him to continue to punch fellows out at that rate. Solid, but remember that he allowed 23 earned runs in his previous four starts before this nice three game run.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Edwin Jackson (-88, $226K)
After being the good Edwin for 2.5 months the evil EJax as returned with a vengeance. The lasttwo  time times he’s taken the hill he’s been beat around for 15 hits and four walks leading to 12 earned runs in 8.2 innings. Panic stricken owners are vomiting the world over. Still, let’s pull back from the madness for some perspective. Edwin’s best ERA is 3.62 from 2009. It’s currently 3.73. His best WHIP was 1.26 in 2009. It’s currently 1.13. His career K/9 is 6.69. It’s currently 6.75. His career K/BB ratio is 1.87. It’s currently 2.53 (a career best). His HR/9 mark is 0.98. His career mark is 0.99. I know you don’t want to hear it after the two beatings he just took, but the truth is that his overall numbers put him on pace to have the best season of his career, or at worst, exactly what you should have expected.

Jesus Montero (-20, $50K)
Montero has one hit in his last eight games dropping his average .021 points down to .242. Obviously the youngster is totally lost right now. His future is still very bright, but as I often warn when the discussion roles around to youngsters – their path to success isn’t always linear. Sometimes, there are bumps in the road. If Montero wants to turn his recent slide around he would be wise to start with his control of the strikezone. Currently sporting a 0.22 BB/K mark that is half the big league average, he’d be wise to start working that count a bit better. Of note. On the season he’s hit a mere .203 against righties with four homers in 192 at-bats while he’s murdered lefties to the tune of a .326 average and four homers in just 89 at-bats.

Ervin Santana (-153, $189)
How is this still happening? “This” is all the homers Santana is allowing which are simply tanking his season. A career 1.18 homers allowed per nine innings kinda fella, that number is in the stratosphere this season at 1.74 per nine. Given that massive increase your initial reaction is likely ‘he must be giving up a lot more fly balls this season.’ That’s a fair assumption, but it’s totally wrong. Right now Santana has a 33 percent fly ball rate. That would be the lowest total of his career. Right now Santana has a 48 percent ground ball rate. That would be the highest total of his career. ‘But Ray, that makes no sense. How is he giving up so many homers then?’ The answer is a near doubling of his HR/F mark from 10.3 percent for his career, and never worse than 12.8 percent in a season, to 18.9 percent right now. That number simply has to come down, doesn’t it? He’d also be well served to throw more strikes (his 3.66 BB/9 mark would be his first season over 3.05 since 2007).

Luke Scott (-19, $72K)
One of the streakiest hitters on the planet, Scott has been abysmal for a long while now. How bad? Since June 2nd Scott  has a total of five hits. He was hurt for a while, but that’s still just five hits in 55 at-bats (.091). As a result he’s hitting .200 in 220 at-bats for the Rays. Sure he has 11 homers and 42 RBIs, strong totals, but can you really live with that batting average drain in your lineup right now? Don’t worry, he’ll probably have a week where he has 12 hits and four homers soon – it’s just how he rolls.

DAILY CONTEST

Today, and every day, you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

History is Happening

Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 9, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I receive questions on a 24 hour basis. Here are some of those questions and my thoughts.

I have to keep two: Jeremy Hellickson, C.J. Wilson and Justin Masterson. Which two stay?
– @BradfordEra

Ah, gotta love those shallow leagues.

Hellickson has a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his rookie season as he has been as good as advertised. Unlike other rookies, he is showing no signs of fading either as he has allowed two runs in his last two starts and three of fewer in each of his last eight outings. In fact, seven of those eight times on the hill have produced a “quality start.” There is no reason to turn away from him at this point.

Wilson bounced back in his last outing with nine Ks and two earned runs allowed after getting lit up for 10 earned runs (13 total) in his previous two outings. He’s been pretty uneven of late permitting four or more earned runs four times in his last nine starts while in the other five he’s allowed two or fewer. Still, he has 29 Ks in 29.1 innings over his last five starts, and despite the two shelling his ERA is a palatable 3.99 in that time.

Masterson has been on quite a role as well. Over his last 10 starts he has lowered his ERA from 3.18 down to 2.63 as only once has he allowed more than four runs. Moreover, he’s actually allowed as many as four earned runs only twice in those 10 starts. He’s also been locked in when it comes to throwing strikes as he has walked a total of 11 batters in those 10 outings.

So who do you drop? None really. All are pitching well and all sport solid skills that speak to the ability of each to carry on the solid work they have offered to this point. If pressed to drop one I’d move on from Masterson, but as you can tell, I’m really not a fan of doing that.

I Lost Chase Headley/Daniel Murphy/Adrian Beltre to injuries …need a 3B…Casey McGehee, Danny Valencia or David Freese?
– @IsabelTrent

That’s about as bad a run of luck as anyone could possible fall in. Brutal.

Do you want to add Freese given your lack of luck? Freese is expected to return to the Cards lineup on Tuesday from a concussion that he suffered Thursday last week. He should be fine, but given your run of injury, do you have the stomach to add Freese? If you do you would be adding a guy who is batting .320 this year and one who owns a .308 career mark in 465 at-bats. The guy can hit no doubt, even if his power reminds you more of Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt.

Valencia has quietly been a solid run producer this season. Danny has 12 homers on the year, just one less than Alex Rodriguez. He has 58 RBI, the same total as Evan Longoria. He has 42 runs scored, the same total as Chase Headley. There are negatives with Valencia, chiefly his .242 average and .287 OBP, but he has been moving the arrow there as well of late. Since the start of July Valencia has hit .291 with a .319 OBP. OK, the OBP is awful, but the .291 average is much more like the rookie who hit .311 last year in Minnesota.

McGehee was great in two thirds of a season in 2009, and last year he posted 23 homers and 104 RBI. He was going in the top-10 at third base in almost all drafts this season. McG then proceeded to hit .218 in May and .177 in June as he hit one long ball in 51 games. Unbelievable. However, he’s awoken of late with 12 RBI in his last 10 games, and with that big three homer game on August 3rd he caught everyone’s attention. I would add Valencia here. However, if you don’t mind rolling the dice when you could end up crapping out, Freese would be an intriguing add batting behind Berkman, Holliday and Pujols in St. Louis.

Is Jesus Montero worth grabbing for cheap in a league that keeps 10 players now?
– @Trevorpace24

The short answer is yes, add Montero. As for the reasons, there are a couple that really stand out..

First, Montero will one day be a middle of the order bat on a championship level team. He’s always flashed an elite level stick, and scouts will tell you that the ball just jumps off his bat. Now he’s had some issues with concentration and focus this season, and it’s not like his numbers at Triple-A jump off the page (.289-11-51 in 90 games), but you can just see the potential oozing out of his pours.

Second, the Yankees offense has a black hole right now at designated hitter. Jorge Posada has been filling the role for much of the season, but it’s time to face facts – he just hasn’t gotten it done this year with a .231 average, a .309 OBP and a sickly .372 SLG  How does that line compare to his career levels? Atrociously – .273/.374/.474. Posada has also gone 27 games without going deep, and during that time he has all of four RBI. He’s also hitting a mere .103 against lefties on the year (58 at-bats), and he has looked totally lost on the road (.173/.254/.276 with two homers). If not for all the offensive fireworks going on around him this year in New York his failings would be more front and center. Moreover, a report Monday in The Journal News says Posada’s rope may have finally run out.  “[Manager Joe Girardi] said he was going to put the best lineup on the field, and he doesn’t know when I’m going to DH again,” Posada said. “So right now I’m sitting on the bench.”

The supposition is that Montero could be called up from the minors to take over the bulk of the designated hitter duties. Even if Montero doesn’t play a major role this season, adding him in a league that protects 10 players is a good idea. Catcher eligible players who can blast 25 homers are rare, and in a worst case scenario Jesus would have a whole lot of value if you wanted to trade him. After all, everyone loves rookies almost as much as they love those Yankees.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Rookie Roundup

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.

Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.

Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.

Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).

Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.

Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.

Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.

Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.

Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?

By Ray Flowers

ROTW Rankings: Hitters

I get asked all the time, ‘hey Ray, can you rank these players for me the rest of the way.’ I diligently answer the queries, but with the question being asked so frequently it only made sense for me to come up with a list that I could refer people to. A few caveats before we get to the actual rankings.

(1) Players are only listed at one position so you only find Jose Bautista in the outfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop even though they qualify at multiple positions.

(2) I’ve sprinkled in a few rookies, guys like Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero and Desmond Jennings, but with so much uncertainty surrounding young players and when/if they will be called up, most of the youngsters currently in the minors were left off the list.

(3) This is the most important point to make – these are Rest of the Way rankings. Jose Bautista might be the #1 fantasy performer right now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the best the ROTW. These lists are intended to give my thoughts on how players should be ranked from May 30th on, irrespective of the players production up to this point.

(4) The rankings are based on the standard of a 12 team mixed league using traditional 5×5 categories.

With that, here is the list. I’m sure you’ll all have a good time critiquing my thoughts, and I look forward to reading your replies in the COMMENTS section below.

ROTW-HITTERS-May30-2011-BBGuys

By Ray Flowers

Undervalued Performers for 2011

Photo by Debra Roby

Which player who is currently flying a bit under the radar has a chance to be a top-50 performer this season?

I asked some of the brightest minds in the industry. Here are their thoughts.

Ryan Boyer, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @RyanPBoyerMLB
Derek Holland, LHP, Rangers
Top-50 might be stretching it a bit, but a guy I really like to take a big step forward this season is Derek Holland. The Rangers’ No. 2 prospect in 2009 in what was at the time an absolutely loaded farm system, Holland dealt with some shoulder inflammation last season, but when he was healthy, he struck out nearly a batter per inning for Texas and was simply dominant at Triple-A (1.87 ERA over 11 starts). The Rangers are looking for someone to pick up the slack with Cliff Lee gone, and I think a likely scenario is Holland being that guy and Neftali Feliz staying in the bullpen. This 24-year-old has the upside to be one of the better lefties in the AL in short order.

Jason Collette, BaseballProspectus.com and Rotowire.com
Twitter: @jasoncollette
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto
Encarnacion has a breakout power year in limited playing time in 2010. Despite being in the league for what seems like forever, he is just 28 years old and now can focus mainly on his hitting as he is not going to be asked to do much in the field this year other than play some first base against the tough lefties (okay, maybe the not-so-tough lefties, too) that Adam Lind struggles against. Maybe this is more the fan in me than the analyst, but I like Encarnacion’s chances of hitting 30 home runs in 2011 more than I like Jose Bautista’s chance at 40. I have Edwin pegged as one of the few players to increase their homer totals by 10 or more from this past season as I think his plate skills, playing time, and the end of his defensive butchery at third base all converge into his true breakout season.

Patrick Daugherty, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @pat3537
Gio Gonzalez, SP, A’s
Overshadowed by Trevor Cahill’s out-of-nowhere Cy Young run and Dallas Braden’s perfect game last season, it was easy not to notice that Gio Gonzalez notched a SO/9 of over seven and a half while posting improved peripherals across the board. Still just 25 and getting markedly better each year, don’t be surprised if he’s the Athletic that makes a serious run at the Cy Young this season – and ends up anchoring your fantasy pitching staff.

Cory Elfrink, SI.com contributor
Jason Bay, OF, Mets
From 2005-2009, Jason Bay averaged 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 101 runs, and 12 steals while batting .279. His first season hitting in Citi Field, much like David Wright’s first season there, was a disaster. Not only did he appear in just 95 games – largely due to a concussion – but even when he did suit up, he delivered production far below expectations. Heading into 2011, Bay is not exactly being ignored in drafts as his ADP is firmly in the top-150. However, he seems like a fallback option on everyone’s board. I would say there are less than 25 hitters in the game capable of producing what Bay averaged for the five-season stretch heading into last season. A player like Troy Tulowitzki plays a premium position, no doubt. He’s also going in the top-10, if not the top-5, of most drafts. Yet his projections are in line with Bay’s averages from 2005-09. In other words, don’t be surprised if Bay comfortably finishes among the top-50 fantasy players in 2011.

Kyle Elfrink, The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
In the second half of his second season, he posted a .285/.336/.459 slash line which was right in line with his 2009 season. He’s still only 24 and he finally gets to stick at one position (he was drafted as a shortstop, brought up as a third baseman, and handled second base duties last year). He should be charged with nothing but second base this year. His steals could hit double-digits, and if that happens you have a rarity at second base – a .280 hitter with double-digit homers, double-digit steals and an OPS of near .800. He’s a guy that you can get outside the top-175 with a chance at sniffing the top-50.

Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Rotowire.com
Twitter: @baseballguys
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
A “post hype sleeper,” there was a point a few years ago that Maybin was on everyone’s lips as a “must have,” but those times have faded as his performance in the bigs has been poor to date. Still, Maybin has been highly effective at Triple-A the past two years (he has hit .325-7-62-65-13 in just 115 games at Triple-A), and it looks like he will be given every chance to play on a daily basis for the Padres. Given that opportunity, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could evolve into a Mike Cameron type who could go 20/20, albeit with a mediocre average, as early as this season, and don’t forget that he is only 23 years old.

David Longnecker, KFFL.com
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
After Nick Markakis posted a line of .300/23/112 and stole 18 bases in 2007, he appeared to be on the brink of fantasy stardom as a multi-category stud. He’s yet to arrive there, but I expect Markakis to return to his former glory in 2011. He’s simply far too talented to post his best career season at the age of 23. Now 27 and under far less pressure to reproduce his former numbers and to produce due to a revamped lineup, Markakis is primed to be a top-50 fantasy player. It’s not too much to expect Markakis to produce 20 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs, 12 steals and an average north of .300 in 2011. Even if he falls short of that, he’s going to be a great bargain considering his ADP.

David Rogers, Frozenotes.com
Twitter: @Frozennotes
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
A personal favorite of mine, Markakis has a pretty quiet season last year swatting just 12 homers while driving in a mere 60 runs. However, though his stats weren’t overwhelming, he still maintained a solid .297 average. This season there’s a lot to get excited about concerning the Baltimore offense. Assuming injuries and current health concerns don’t flare up, the Orioles will feature a formidable lineup, top to bottom. The additions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds should give Markakis a boost this season.

Seth Trachtman
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
Plenty of people are talking about Montero this spring, especially after Francisco Cervelli’s injury, but few are expecting much of significance from him. However, Cervelli’s injury all but guarantees Montero will break camp with the major league club, and the Yankees will give their prized prospect playing time no matter where he resides. It also helps that Russell Martin hasn’t produced in two years, and Jorge Posada’s bat speed is precipitously slowing. Consider that Montero already has a full season of Triple-A under his belt, and against much more advanced competition at age 20 he hit .289-21-75 in 453 at-bats last season.  The only reason to send Montero down again is to work on his defense, but the Yankees have reportedly been thrilled with his progress after losing a few pounds. Not many catchers produce offensively this early in their careers, but even fewer do what he did at age 20 in the International League. Montero is currently being drafted among the lower tier of second catchers in mixed leagues, but he’s more than capable of being a top five catcher now — or better.

Charlie Wiegert, Godfatheroffantasysports.com
Grady Sizemore, OF Cleveland
After four consecutive 20-20 years, and a 30-30 year in 2008, Sizemore has been curtailed by injuries the last two seasons, making him an easy person to forget. The guy is only 28, and should be going into the prime of his career, which once made him a fantasy top-10 pick. Sizemore is working through his rehab program after undergoing microfracture surgery on his left knee in June, and it’s unlikely he’ll be ready for the start of the season, more reason most owners will ignore him. He went early in the 8th round of our recent FSTA Experts league draft to Roto Experts, a bit earlier than I expected. I was hoping to get him in the 10-11 round area, which would make his risk vs reward a better option. After 130 picks, he was worth taking in my opinion, but at the 100 pick mark, outfielders like Nick Markakis, Chris Young and Curtis Granderson were still available.

Editors Note: Charlie got his man when he took Grady Sizemore in a recent draft held amongst the former Fanball Crew.

Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker

All anyone will be talking about today is the Cliff Lee signing, and while I too will lead off with his improbable deal with the Phillies, there are some other moves that are worthy of at least throwing a paragraph at.

Cliff Lee: Ted Carlson already covered the Phillies swopping in a and nabbing the top pitcher on the market out from under the Yankees and Rangers in Phil-Lee Surprise. Here is my favorite line from the piece. “That’s the best quartet that Philly has seen since Boyz II Men.” Classic. Debate will rage about if this is the best foursome of pitchers since the Braves’ in the 1990, the Orioles in the early 70′s or the Indians in 50′s, but let’s just say Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is a flat out amazing group of arms. As pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the top-4 now sports the 2010 major league leader in Wins Above Replacement (Lee), the NL leader in WHIP (Oswalt at 1.03), the NL Cy Young winner (Halladay), and the best left-handed pitcher in the Senior Circuit after 7/1 (Hamels posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and a 4.24 K/BB mark over his final 118.1 IP). As was also pointed out by @ggiants on Twitter, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants beat all four of those pitchers in the 2010 playoffs, so don’t go coronating the Phillies as the 2011 champs just yet.

Adam LaRoche/Derrek Lee: It would appear that the Nationals, Orioles and D’backs all need a starting first baseman, and these two are obviously the top-2 options on the free agent market. Both hitters bring solid bats and can be expected to hit 20 homers with at least 80 RBI, and while that isn’t overly exciting by any means, there is nary a team in the game that wouldn’t take that kind of production if the price was right. Lee is likely to command bigger dollars even though he is coming off a slightly depressed season (.260-19-80) and despite the fact that he is four years old at 35. Either one would be a nice pickup at this point with all the big names flying off the free agent board, and neither is going to be poor with teams throwing around money like a drunken frat boy at a gentleman’s club.

Russell Martin: It appears a near certainty that Martin will join the Yankees which sends the wheels moving (he’ll need to pass a physical to make it official). (1) Martin will sign a one year deal with the club, though it’s really a 2-year deal since Martin will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season, so the Yankees can choose to keep him for one more season if they so desire. (2) It appears that despite coming back off hip surgery, the Yankees are confident that Martin will be able to catch the majority of the time. (3) His signing means that Jesus Montero will likely get some more time to work on his glove in the minors. The dude is ready to hit big league pitching, but many “in the know” worry if he will ever be able to handle the rigors of catching everyday in the big leagues. (4) The real question at this point is what does Martin have left? The hip issue is a huge concern in it’s own right given that a catcher sometimes has to squat and all, but as concerning is the lack of any type of production from his bat. From 2006-08 Martin’s average season was .285-14-74-80-16 as he was a fantasy darling. Since then he has produced an average yearly outing of .249-6-40-54-9, which hardly the stuff of legend. Hitting in a loaded lineup in New York, in a great hitter’s park will help, but I would like his outlook a lot better if he wasn’t being counted on to catch four or five days a week. Don’t be swayed by the love of all things Yankees when considering Martin on draft day, 2011.

Hideki Matsui: The Athletics will announce that they have signed Hideki Matsui after he completes his physical (reports are the deal will be for about $4.25 million for one year). It would appear that Godzilla will be asked to take over as the primary DH in Oakland now that Jack Cust has signed with the Mariners (you can read about that move in Hot Stove: December 8, 2010). Matsui finished 2010 well, and that is putting it mildly, as he batted .309 with 11 homers and 37 RBI, not to mention a .955 OPS, over his last 60 games. The end result was a .274-21-84 line that gave at least those three numbers in each of his last five seasons of 450 at-bats (he hit “only” 16 homers in 2003 when he batted .287 with 106 RBI). Oakland isn’t a great place to hit, and it’s not like their lineup is overflowing with talent, but with Matsui you know what you are going to get.

By Ray Flowers