Draft Day Challenge, April 16

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. Welington Castillo

Napoli has started to hit, .263 the past week, and he’s actually up to 11 RBIs in 12 games. Not many have noticed that. He’s facing Ubaldo Jimenez whom he has two hits in three at-bats against in their brief interaction.

The Cubs’ backstop doesn’t have an at-bat against Derek Holland, but he has five hits in his last three games, nine hits in his last seven games, is batting .368 at home this season and .364 on the young season.

FIRST BASE
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chris Davis

Berkman has seven hits in 11 at-bats against Travis Wood. Two of those hits are home runs. Berkman has also started out all kinds of hot with a .389 batting average and 1.111 OPS.

Davis has slowed a bit the last week, he’s only hitting .294 with two homers in that time. Still, he’s got a strong matchup facing off against Roberto Hernandez of the Rays whom he has five hits (one homer) against in 13 at-bats (.385).

SECOND BASE
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jamey Carroll

Why would I suggest you start a guy who has only two hits in 10 at-bats against a pitcher (Jake Arrieta)? Check out the walk column. Zobrist has eight in 18 plate appearances leading to a .556 OBP. The hits are coming.

Carroll is boring an only someone you want to use if you are looking for a cheap play to fill out your lineup. He’s only got eight at-bats on the year, but he has had a lot of success against Jason Vargas in his career with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412).

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. David Wright

Alvarez is hitting .073 on the season. It’s even worse of late as he is 1-for-16 the past week. So start him against Jake Westbrook. Hey, history says it’s a good move as Pedro has hit .579 with two homers, eight RBIs an a 1.600 OPS over 19 at-bats in the matchup.

Wright has gone deep three times in 13 at-bats against Jeff Francis. He’s also gone 6-for-13 in the matchup with four walks leading to a .462/.611/1.154 slash line.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Jhonny Peralta

Escobar has been dreadful this season hitting .050 on the road (20 at-bats) and .098 overall. Crazy to play him I know, but he breaks out of his slump tonight against Jake Arrieta who he has seven hits, including a homer, in 16 at-bats (.438).

Peralta has seven hits in 23 at-bats, a .304 average, and he’s gone deep twice against Aaron Harang who is trying to impress his new employers in Seattle. Oh yeah, Peralta is also hitting .370 the past week.

OUTFIELD
1. Jonny Gomes
2. Andrew McCutchen

Gomes has five hits in 12 at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez who isn’t exactly tearing it up this season. Two of those hits for Gomes were bombs, and he’s knocked in five runs too.

McC has nine hits in 22 at-bats with a big fly and four walks against Jake Westbrook. Andrew is hitting .409 with a cool .500 OBP. Nice.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Chris Capuano
3. Doug Fister
4. Dan Haren

Griffin faces the Astros. That’s always a good reason to start a guy. He also has been very good at home in his career with a 4-0 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have also been averaging 10.1 batters per nine innings this season.

Capuano has a 3.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 mark in 70 innings against the Padres. The Padres are also hitting just .206 against lefties this season.

Fister has allowed a .212 average, .236 OBP and .346 SLG in 52 at-bats against the Mariners. He’s also allowed just one homer and walked one batter. Add in that he has a 2.77 ERA in two starts this season, and you’ve got yourself a solid starting option tonight.

Haren faces a Marlins team without Giancarlo Stanton. Haren has also struck out 10 batters, without issuing a single walks, in his nine innings this season.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Ever wanted the chance to play in a High Stakes Daily Fantasy Baseball Contest vs one of the best Experts in the industry?

Well, here is your chance to play against me, Ray Flowers, Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Channel Radio Host, owner of BaseballGuys.com, and 2011 FSWA Award Winner.

Jump into a private $5 “50/50” 20 man contest for a chance to play vs. Ray Flowers from Baseball Guys in a FREE 1 on 1 Heads Up Daily Fantasy Baseball contest for $50!!!

In a special contest with Daily Joust – Ray Flowers is putting it all on the line in a Heads Up Challenge.  This contest is two-fold.

Enter the $5 20 man 50/50 Friday night  ENTER HERE.
Finish in the top 10 of the contest and win $9

Finish in 1st place and move on to play Ray the following Friday for $50 in COLD HARD CASH!!  Plus the bragging rights of beating Ray!!!

So pass on that $5 “Footlong” Friday night and jump into this contest on DailyJoust, you can buy plenty of sandwiches later with your winnings!

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Cliff Lee: The two have faced each other 33 times with Cuddyer hitting .303 with three homers and eight RBIs. Marco Scutaro has also hit .321 in 28 at-bats against Lee.

Johnny Damon vs. Ricky Romero: If there was ever a lock to get a hit, or two, it’s Damon in this matchup (over at Fleaflicker Damon is barely owned). The duo has faced off 29 times and here’s the damage inflicted by Damon – a .522 avearge, four homers, eight RBIs a .633 OBP an a 1.807 OPS. Wowzah’s.

Jhonny Peralta vs. Jason Hammel: In 12 at-bats Peralta is hitting .417 with a homer and seven RBIs. Peralta also hit the break with four hits in his last two games while Hammel has a 6.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six career games against the Tigers.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Tim Hudson vs. Mets: The Mets have 149 at-bats against Hudson, those currently on the roster that is, and they have gone deep just two times while hitting .235 with a .637 OPS. Seems like Hudson has a pretty good shot at holding the Metropolitans down.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Padres: Any time you see Kershaw on the hill you should be pumped. When that matchup has him taking on the Padres, you should be super pumped. When you notice that current Padres are hitting .213 with a .542 OPS, and not a single homer in 141 at-bats, it’s time to start doing cartwheels (though be careful not to injure yourself cause I know I would if I attempted that move).

Adam Wainwright vs. Reds: In his career current Reds batter are hitting .187 with a .555 OPS over 107 at-bats against Waino. Take out that one rough outing against the Pirates and Wainwright has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last three starts with at least seven Ks each outing.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy: Maybe those Royals fans that felt slighted All-Star weekend will have something to cheer for in this matchup as Butler has hit .389 with a 1.365 OPS against Peavy in 18 career at-bats.

Torii Hunter vs. Freddy Garcia: The two have faced each other in 48 official at-bats with Hunter emerging with 19 hits leading to a .396 batting average. Hunter has also gone deep four times while knocking in eight runs.

Casey Kotchman vs. Aaron Laffey: OK, I take my Damon prediction. This might be the most bonkers matchup ever. E-V-E-R. In 10 at-bats Kotchman has nine hits against Laffey. That is all.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Gio Gonzalez vs. Marlins: Current Marlins batters have 36 at-bats against Gio. They have struck out 12 times and produced… one hit (Emilio Bonifacio). Coming off a first half that saw him post a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention 118 Ks in 101.2 innings, Gio is a must start in this matchup.

Kyle Lohse vs. Reds: In the last matchup between these two foes Lohse worked seven scoreless innings. In each of his last four starts he has worked at least seven innings while allowing a total of seven runs. That’s sounding like a pretty good matchup to me.

Max Scherzer vs. Orioles: On the year Scherzer has a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Terrible numbers for a guy with his arm. I try to focus more on the 121 Ks in 97.1 innings and the nearly four to one K/BB marks. I also like the fact that he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts as he’s finally finding his rhythm on the hill.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: Friday he faces Ervin Santana. Jeter is a rather amazing 17-for-38 against the righty with three homers (that’s good for a .447 average). Teammate Robinson Cano is hitting .344 with four homers in 32 at-bats against Santana.

Shin-Soo Choo: Friday he faces Luke Hochevar who he simply hammers into the Dark Ages. Choo has 13 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .565 average. In addition to all the hits, he’s doing something with them as he has four doubles, three homers and 10 RBI. Impressive.

Chipper Jones: Friday he faces Randy Wolf who he beats around like a pinata. In 53 career at-bats Jones has four bombs and 10 RBI. He’s also hitting .377 with a 1.228 OPS. It’s a great match up for Chipper. However, it seems to be an awful match up for his teammate Michael Bourn as the speedster has all of one hit in 17 at-bats against Wolf including seven punchouts.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

R.A. Dickey: Friday he faces the Phillies, a team he has had a lot of success against. In six career starts covering 38 innings, R.A. has a 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB ratio against the Fightin’ Phils.

Cliff Lee: Friday he faces the Mets. It’s only 21 innings, but the guy has a 0.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.40 K/BB ratio against the Metropolitans. He’s pretty much always money though regardless of the opposition.

Clayton Richard: Friday he faces the Dodgers, a team he has thoroughly dominated with a 2.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 45.1 innings. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, but you can’t argue with the results.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carlos Lee: Faces the often wild and tempestuous Carlos Zambrano. Lee not only has a 1.098 OPS in 67 career at-bats against Big Z, he’s also had more walks than strikeouts (eight to seven), while hitting .358 with five homers and 15 RBI.

Jhonny Peralta: Faces Gavin Floyd whom he has 10 hits in 31 at-bats against (.323). He’s also gone deep two times leading to a seven RBI. Other Tigers with success against Floyd include Ryan Raburn (.375 in 32 at-bats), though he is really struggling on the young season (.105 through five games).

Placido Polanco: Faces Jonathon Niese who he has hit .429 against in 21 at-bats. Polanco has hit four doubles helping him to a .619 SLG, and he’s driving in six runs against he Mets’ lefty.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Joe Wieland: Faces the Dodgers starting in place of the injured Dustin Mosley. The game will be played in Los Angeles, a park that has played as the 14th lowest scoring ball yard in the National League the last three years according to Park Indices (nine percent below the league average). The Dodgers as a team haven’t exactly been impressive on the early year either hitting .204 with a .306 OBP and a mere .363 SLG.

Carlos Zambrano: Faces the Astros on Saturday. Though I noted how Carlos Lee kills Zambrano, non one else on the Astros has done much of anything against him. In addition, the guy has flat out owned the ‘Stros in his career. Check out the numbers: 16-8, 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with 186 Ks in 218 innings. Basically he’s been what Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 178 Ks in 225 IP) was last season when he’s faced the Astros.

Barry Zito: Faces the Pirates in San Francisco. The Pirates are currently the worst hitting team in baseball as they are batting .199 with a .241 OBP, 293 SLG and 11 runs scored in six games. Zito is also coming off his first shutout since 2003 and he has a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates. Are you feeling lucky punk (thanks for that one Dirty Hairy)?

CONTESTS

Finally, here are two of the main contests you might be interested in (there are many other options to sign up for at Daily Joust, so don’t think you are limited to just this duo).

The $500 King Richard Survivor Tourney is on Fridays. The tournament includes 32 participants on Day 1. Then it’s paired down to 16 on Day 2, eight on Day 3 etc. Basically, the players in the top half each day move on to the next day. The winner end ups with $195, on just a $20 entry fee, and the winner is also added into the MLB Super Joust III tournament in September! Super Joust II is April 18th and has $10,000 in prizes up for grabs. If that wasn’t enough of a reason to get excited, maybe the two tickets that the winner gets to the NBA Finals will help get your blood pumping.

MLB 50/50 Survivor Tournament. A $20 entry fee gets you entered in the tournament (all other rounds free). There are five rounds, top half per round qualify for next round. Payouts by round are $5/15/25/50/100 with the final round winner getting one of the spots in the $10,000 NBA Super Joust tournament on April 18 with a shot at those two NBA Finals tickets.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

Player Profile: Jhonny Peralta

Jhonny Peralta, and yes that is how you spell his first name, was one of the more valuable infielders in baseball in 2011. How is that possible when he didn’t hit .300 (he hit .299), didn’t reach 25 homers (he had 21), didn’t knock in 90 runs (he had 86 RBI), and didn’t even score 70 runs (he had 68)? The simple answer is that he was a really strong overall performer who also qualified at two spots in 2011 – shortstop and third base (in deeper leagues he also added two other “positions” to his value by also qualifying at middle and corner infield). While he will only qualify at shortstop in 2011, his value this past season was greatly enhanced because of the copious amount of injuries that the third base position suffered through (see: 2011 Positional Review – Third Base). At the end of the day he was a top-15 performer at both third base and shortstop, not bad for a guy who likely wasn’t drafted until at least the middle rounds of your mixed league draft. What can you expect from Jhonny heading into  2012?

This was the fourth time that Peralta hit 20 homers in a season, though it was the first time in three years that he pulled off the trick. After hitting just 26 homers in 2009-10, what was the key to his turnaround? A career-high fly ball rate of 44.2 percent certainly didn’t hurt, nor was a 3-year high in his HR/F rate of 10.8 a detriment. Does that mean he will regress in 2012? It’s possible, but if he continues to hit so many balls in the air, he’s been over 43 percent the past two years, he should be able to push 20 homers again (especially since his career HR/F ratio is actually 11.1 percent, slightly above his mark in 2011).

What about his batting average you ask? That’s more concerning than his run producing output. All of those extra fly balls don’t bode well for a strong batting average as his GB/FB ratio has dipped to below 0.85 each of the past two years. An average performer in the line drive category, Peralta posted a 20.0 percent mark in 2011, just off his 20.1 career mark, and right on the big league average of 19-20 percent. So, could he sustain his .325 BABIP mark from 2011? Certainly he could, especially when you consider that he owns a .314 career mark Still, his .325 mark was a five year high, so there might be some regression here, especially with his ever increasing fly ball rate. Also, common sense tells you that his .299 batting average, a career best, will regress. Not only does Jhonny have a mere .268 batting average on the back of his ball card, he’d also been under .255 in 2009 and 2010 and hadn’t hit better than .270 since 2005.

Peralta’s value, as I stated at the top, if a bit muted for 2012 given that he will no longer carries with him third base eligibility (he didn’t play a single game there in 2011). Peralta is also likely to see a regression in the batting average category, perhaps a substantial one (remember he was .031 points clear of his career mark in the just completed season). In addition to those concerns, Peralta is coming off six year bests in OBP and SLG which further supports the position that expecting a carbon copy of his 2011 effort in 2012 is likely asking too much. Don’t take this analysis to say that Peralta has no value, but a guy who has hit .268 in his career, who has three steals the past three seasons, and a fella who last scored 70 runs in 2008 because of a lack of an ability to get on base isn’t someone to heavily target on draft day, not with his positional eligibility limited.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers

ROTW Rankings: Hitters

I get asked all the time, ‘hey Ray, can you rank these players for me the rest of the way.’ I diligently answer the queries, but with the question being asked so frequently it only made sense for me to come up with a list that I could refer people to. A few caveats before we get to the actual rankings.

(1) Players are only listed at one position so you only find Jose Bautista in the outfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop even though they qualify at multiple positions.

(2) I’ve sprinkled in a few rookies, guys like Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero and Desmond Jennings, but with so much uncertainty surrounding young players and when/if they will be called up, most of the youngsters currently in the minors were left off the list.

(3) This is the most important point to make – these are Rest of the Way rankings. Jose Bautista might be the #1 fantasy performer right now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the best the ROTW. These lists are intended to give my thoughts on how players should be ranked from May 30th on, irrespective of the players production up to this point.

(4) The rankings are based on the standard of a 12 team mixed league using traditional 5×5 categories.

With that, here is the list. I’m sure you’ll all have a good time critiquing my thoughts, and I look forward to reading your replies in the COMMENTS section below.

ROTW-HITTERS-May30-2011-BBGuys

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Points Based System

Average Draft Position data is all the rage at this time of year as everyone is scouring drafts to see how others evaluate players. However, the overwhelming majority of that ADP data is derived from standard 5×5 scoring formats. What about those points based leagues that seem to be growing in popularity? Today, I’ll relay how a recent draft in this setup went for me (special thanks goes out to SportsIllustrated.com which asked me to participate in the mock draft. For those of you who aren’t aware, I write a weekly mailbag piece for SI.com that appears on Wednesday’s, and I also write a Monday column for them about fantasy hockey for those of you who are fans of the ice).

League Setup

The league is a 12 teamer, though in a bit of a change there is only one starting catcher, three outfielders, no corner and middle infielders, and there are set spots for the pitchers.

Hitters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitchers: SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP
Bench: Five spots
Rosters set once weekly.

Despite that, what really sets this league apart from others is the scoring system. This league is a points based setup with the following parameters.

OFFENSE

* Single (1 pt), double (2 pts), triple (3 pts) homer (4 pts)
* The following all net one point: walk, HBP, run, RBI
* You get two points for a stolen base.
* If you are caught stealing it’s a (-1), and strikeouts are (-0.5).

PITCHING

* 7 points for win or save.
* 3 points for a quality start or inning pitched
* 0.5 points for a strikeout.
* (-1) point for a walk, earned run, hit allowed, hit batter.
* (-5) points for a loss.

Given this scoring setup starting pitchers that win games and pitch a lot of innings are worth a ton, and that explains why 10 starting pitchers were drafted in the first 34 picks and 14 in the first 48 overall on the draft. This points out what I always talk about – you have to know the scoring system and positional setup of your league when you attempt to evaluate players. In addition to the fact that pitchers went early, catchers went late. Why would you dive in early on catchers if you only need to start one? Moreover, speedsters like Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn have a ton of value in 4×4 and 5×5 leagues, but in this setup 50 steals only nets you as many points as 25 homers (100 each). Actually, that isn’t true. Don’t forget you are awarded a point for runs and RBI which means that 25 homers actually equals 150 points (100 for homers, 25 for runs, 25 for RBI). Of course, that doesn’t count the other runners the batter might knock in on the homer. That’s why I was able to grab Pierre in the 20th round at the 230th pick even though his 5×5 ADP is something like 135 – the scoring system simply dictated that Pierre wasn’t as valuable in this league.

My Team

C: Kurt Suzuki (12th round)
1B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
2B: Chase Utley (2)
3B: Casey McGehee (11)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (6)
OF: Matt Holliday (3), Shane Victorino (8), Hunter Pence (9)
UT: Howie Kendrick (18)
SP: Dan Haren (4), Tommy Hanson (5), Chad Billingsley (7), Ryan Dempster (10), Ricky Nolasco (14)
RP: Jonathan Broxton (13), Matt Thornton (15)
Bench: James Shields (16), Joel Hanrahan (17), Gavin Floyd (19), Juan Pierre (20), Jhonny Peralta (21)

Some general thoughts.

* Jhonny Peralta isn’t exciting, but given the shallow bench in this league his 3B/SS eligibility is a big factor.

* My relievers are highly skilled but uncertain to rack up saves. That’s what happens when you draft this early, you just aren’t sure about roles. However, as you know from How to Evaluate Relievers piece I like to target skills over roles anyway. Also, I almost grabbed Brian Duensing as my last pitcher. Why? Because in this league he qualifies as a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. Remember, check those rules (I went with Hanrahan because I truly believe he will close for Pirates and have a strong season).

* I really like the offense, except for third base. There’s nothing wrong with McGehee, but last season is as good as it gets, and I don’t know if there is anything more he can given in the HR or RBI columns. Still, he was the best option left at the time, and I don’t regret passing on Michael Young to add Dempster in this format.

* My starters are strong. Last season’s numbers, in this scoring format, would equal some big points totals for Haren (12 wins, 216 Ks, 235 IP), Hanson (10, 173, 202.2), Billingsley (12, 171, 191.2) and Dempster (15, 208, 215.1). Heck, even Shields was pretty solid in those three categories (13, 187, 203.1).

So there it is. Remember to check those rules and positional parameters when putting together your cheat sheet – certain setups can really alter the value of certain players.

FINAL NOTE: Here is a review of the entire draft which took place at CBS Sportsline.

By Ray Flowers

Finding Sanity in the Madness

It’s been a long week. I’ve been busy as hell with work trying to get all my ducks in a row so I can head off to Las Vegas next week for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and I seem to have pulled a muscle in my chest while I was maxing out my bench press (I think I had two 10 lbs plates on both sides). I know, it’s a tough life I lead isn’t it? If the biggest worries I have are about whether or not I can do 10 reps or 12 on the bench, or whether or not I can finish that massive margarita from Paris Las Vegas (that thing is like two feet tall in the shape of the Eiffel Tower), then life isn’t all bad. I know that drink doesn’t sound too masculine by the way, but who wouldn’t want to get bombed on $20 – am I right?

Some sports related thoughts after that random opening stanza.

* So much for Lance Berkman’s knee being OK. Turns out he will need minor knee surgery which could keep him out of action for 2-4 weeks, though Berkman still insists he can make opening day. “I don’t anticipate having any lingering effects from it. They said it’s about a three-to-four-week recovery period, so I’m hoping it’s closer to three weeks and I will be ready for Opening Day.” By the way, one of my expert league teams that was drafted last week has Berkman, Brian Roberts and Russell Martin – all injured – on it. Gotta love those early preseason drafts don’t you?

** I have nothing to say about Jesse Carlson. I just loved the picture so much that I had to find a way to bring up his name. What is that, My Little Pony?

* The hype machine continues to motor along in overdrive with Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban fireballer of the Reds. He struck out two in two scoreless innings again the Dodgers on Friday, and his fastball was once again recorded at 100 mph. As they say you can’t teach heat, and with each solid outing the temptation grows for the club to open the year with him on the roster. I think it would make sense for him to start in the minors if for no other reason than to allow him time to acclimatize himself to the American way of life, but here is a very important comparison that I haven’t seen listed anywhere – Chapman is actually 19 days older than the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.

* Bobby Jenks gave up five runs while recording two outs on Friday running his spring performance to seven runs in 1.2 innings. He’s lost weight and changed his outlook to improve his life, but let’s hope he didn’t leave his focus somewhere in the offseason.

* The Mets are a disaster. Contradictory news on the health of Carlos Beltran in the offseason followed up by the latest setback with Jose Reyes are but two of the biggest issues the club is dealing with. I’m no doctor and I know they often rule things out 1-by-1 cause they themselves don’t really know what’s going on sometimes, but the club from New York certainly seems to be having an inordinate number of issues with the diagnosis of injuries and the dissemination of the results.

* Mike Napoli hit his fourth homer on Friday. The guy can rake. Problem is his defense is only so-so which has limited his ability to be in the lineup every day (Jeff Mathis has the exact opposite issue, he can field but he ain’t so good with a bat in his hands). It’s probably sheer folly, but if Napoli were to garner 400 at-bats this season, while maintaining his career levels, he would produce a season of about .256-24-66. You know how many catchers reached all three of those levels last season? The answer is one – Joe Mauer.

Here are links to some of the recent stories that I have penned for those of you who need a little something to read over the weekend.

Breaking Down: Jhonny Peralta.

Breaking Down: Cody Ross.

Breaking Down: Alfonso Soriano.

Is there anything to the belief that 27 year old players blow up merely because of their age? I give my thoughts in two pieces.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.
27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

These two articles give my thoughts on why you should pass on some of the guys being taken early in draft since you can likely find similar production much later on.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

By Ray Flowers

2010 Auction Results

By Ray Flowers