Player Profile: Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard, the Phillies’ slugger, may or may not be at 100 percent in April as he is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles tendon that he suffered making the Phillies last out of the 2011 season (the optimistic out there  believe he will be ready to play in April though it may take a bit longer). However, as much as the Achilles issue bothers me, I’m more concerned with a slowly deteriorating skill set with the 31 year old first baseman whose best days are already behind him.

THE CONCERNS

(1) As I mentioned, despite only six full seasons at the big league level, Howard is already 31 years old and he turns 32 on November 19th. Given his body type, and this has been brought up a lot in baseball circles, there is a concern that he could lose his skills a bit sooner than others who are more physically fit. These two issues make the 5-year, $125 million extension the Phils signed him to look exceedingly risky.

(2) Howard strikes out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. The number hasn’t gone up in recent years, it’s remained steady, but all those strikeouts certainly mean that his .313 batting average from 2006 will end up being a career best. It should also be pointed out that he has failed to hit .255 in two of the past four years.

(3) His OBP has gone down each of the past two seasons: .360, .353 and .346.

(4) His SLG has gone down each of the past two seasons: .571, .505 and .488.

(5) His .488 SLG percentage and .835 OPS in 2011 were career worsts.

(6) He hasn’t hit 35 homers the past two years after hitting at least 45 in 4-straight seasons.

(7) The last two years he’s failed to reach 120 RBI, this after reaching at least 135 in 4-straight seasons.

(8) The last two years he failed to score 90 runs, the only two times in six full seaosns he has failed to do that.

Now you might say points #7 and #8, the counting stats, are somewhat dependent on others in the Phillies’ lineup so you aren’t ready to “blame” Howard for slippage there. I agree, to a point. Still, he’s not driving in or scoring runs like he did over the first four years of his career, and last time I checked the Phils still have a pretty solid batting order don’t they? The real concern with Howard in the fantasy game is threefold. (A) He’s gonna be lucky to hit .280. (B) He never steals bases. (C) His power is on the decline.

The average major league hitter usually produces something like the following line: 19 percent line drives, 43 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. In Howard’s case his career ratios are 23 percent line drives, 39 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. That’s right. Despite all the homers, the fact of the matter is that Howard simply doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. In truth, his fly ball ratio is the same as the big league average. Given that fact, Howard must convert a substantial portion of his fly balls into home runs toi keep his homer total elevated. If his HR/F ratio were to slip at all, the results would be catastrophic to his homer total since he just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to make up for a lack of conversion. Therefore, when I notice that his HR/F ratio has gone down 3-straight seasons I’m very nervous. Not only has it gone down, but it’s gone way down. Here are his HR/F ratios from his six full seasons.

39.5, 31.5, 31.8, 25.4, 21.1, 21.7

That’s a massive fall off. It’s also the reason why (A) he’s bee in in the low 30′s in homers the past two years and why (B) I think his ceiling in the homer category is 35 homers, not 45 like it was from 2006-09.

So we’ve got an aging, injured first baseman who never steals bases, barely betters the league batting average, and one who’s power seems to be slipping. I’m not predicting a collapse for Howard in 2012, but even if that Achilles of his is healthy, I wouldn’t draft him expecting anything other than the levels that we’ve seen the past two years – his salad days just aren’t coming back.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August26, 2011

(1) Giants/Padres deal for Heath Bell doesn’t materialize. Giants left with wounded Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

(2) Johan Santana likely done for year (possibly Jonathan Niese as well). Jose Reyes hopefully back next week.

(3) Indians place Josh Tomlin/Michael Brantley on DL. Shin-Soo Choo hurt. Jim Thome now an Indian.

(4) Curtis Granderson having a historic season for the Yankees.

(5) Travis Snider wrist injury ends his season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August25, 2011

(1)  Tommy Hanson – more tests on shoulder.

(2) Aramis Ramirez – absolutely on fire.

(3) Waiver-wire claims: Jim Thome, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena. For more see Waiver-Wire Claims.

(4) Carlos Ruiz has 5-straight two hit games.

(5) Matt Wieters showing signs of improvement.

(6) Carl Crawford finally hitting like… Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Claims

Players get placed on waivers all the time late in the year. After the trade deadline passes at the end of July, players can still be dealt, but instead of it being a sure thing, there are a lot more hoops to jump through in order for a player to switch squads. In essence, here’s what happens.

(1) A player is exposed to waivers.

(2) Teams have the chance to claim the player in order of their record from worst to best.

(3) Once a team claims a player they have a 48 hours to work out a deal.

(4) If a deal is not worked out, then the player stays on his current team and can be “pulled back” from waivers with no penalty. If that player is put on waivers yet again, he cannot be pulled back a second time.

(5) If a player passes through waivers with no team putting in a claim, then that player can freely be traded to any team in the league.

For more on the process see Jayson Stark’s explanation.

Though waiver claims are private, the information always leaks out. Current claims would appear to be in place for the following players.

Heath Bell: Claimed by the Giants
The Giants have Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson on the DL. The team has expressed optimism that both arms will be fine in short order (Romo could even return by the end of the week), but this move suggests otherwise. Still, it should be pointed out that teams often put in claims on players to “block” that player from going to another team. The Giants could merely have claimed Bell with no intention of working out a deal for him just so teams with better records than them (i.e. the Diamondbacks) wouldn’t have the chance to claim Bell. It could also mean that there is serious concern about the condition of Wilson’s elbow.

Jason Kubel: Unknown Claim
Kubel has appeared in only 80 game because of injury but that hasn’t diminished his on field work that sees his current “pace” as .290-18-90 over 160 games. Kubel has hit only .252 over his last 103 at-bats, but he would bring a strong bat to the outfield of a contending team. He’s even hit lefties well with year with a .829 OPS, a shockingly impressive number for a guy who owns a .692 OPS against left handers in his career.

Carlos Pena: Unknown Claim
In each of the past four years Pena has hit 28 homers with 84 RBIs. This season he has 23 homers and 67 RBI. However, he’s also hitting .223 this year, though that isn’t at all unexpected given his batting average numbers the past three years (.247, .227 and .196). He has the power to hit it out of any yard, and he knows how to take a walk which has led to a career .350 OBP, a rather impressive number for a guy who has hit .239 in more than 4,000 at-bats.

Wandy Rodriguez: Claimed by the Rockies
The Astros might be willing to move Wandy given that he is owed $37 million the next three years, but they are going to have to get some talent back for him (i.e. this isn’t being viewed as a pure salary dump move). The Rockies could certainly use a big league read arm like Wandy’s to take up the space vacated by the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez out of town.

Jim Thome: Unknown Claim
The perfect wavier-wire claim type, Thome would likely be moved into a reserve role with a contending team which would greatly diminish his fantasy value. Still, as he has shown of late, the guy can still hit as he’s batting .290 with six homers, 21 RBI an a .947 OPS over his last 29 games.

By Ray Flowers

Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June23, 2011

(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.

(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.

(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).

(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers

Signings and Strategy

I had a nice weekend. I went out on a wonderful date on Friday night, amazingly the second time that the beautiful woman agreed to see me, had my first Tom Collins on Saturday (not bad at all), and I got to lounge around on Sunday in my pajamas while watching inane movies off my recently purchased subscription to Netflix. I also spent my usual amount of time running through all the happenings in the sports world as I found out that even while slightly intoxicated I could still remember the majority of facts and figures I came across (to be honest I already knew this having spent a good portion of the past three years drunk – my mom would be so proud). Hopefully your weekend went as well as mine.

Enough with that. You didn’t come here to read about my fledgling life as a social butterfly, so let’s get down to some hardcore analysis shall we?

A Signing and a Free Agent

Jason Bartlett signed a 2-year, $11 million deal to take over at shortstop for the Padres. The deal buys out his last season of arbitration and first year of free agency in 2012. The dollars might seem somewhat pricey given that he hit .254 with 47 RBI and 11 steals last year, but he was a fantasy superstar in 2009 (.320-14-66-90-30). The “real” Bartlett is somewhere between those two extremes. I’d draft Bartlett for his average (.281 career) and for the speed that led to 20-steals each year from 2007-09. If he returns to that level he will have an awful lot of value in NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes is still a free agent, and I’m having a hard time understanding why that is. Maybe he wants big dollars, but plenty of middle relievers this offseason have gotten loaded (see Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy). Perhaps it is because he wants to serve as a closer and teams don’t have an opening for him there? What I can say for certain is that he still owns the skills to be a highly effective reliever. He only lasted 48 innings last season because of injury, but when he was on the hill he was vintage Fuentes with a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and an 8.81 K/9 mark. The K-rate was down a full batter from his career rate, and that certainly is a concern, but after posting a career worst 7.53 mark in ’09 adding a batter plus to that rate in ’10 is certainly encouraging. It should also be noted that his fly ball rate last season was over 58 percent, a massive number. If/when that number recedes closer to his career rate of 45.0 percent, one would think he would have little trouble continuing to get batters out. With all of that, and the fact that he is one of just four men with at least 20 saves each of the past six years (Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez), isn’t it odd that Brian is still twisting in the wind?

Strategy Corner

A brief thought as we slowly start to move away from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.

Don’t believe the hype.

Sometimes the hype is warranted, but at least as often the hype ends up amounting to little. How does that apply to the early 2011 mock draft winds?

Adrian Gonzalez is being taken as a first round selection. I’ve already given my thoughts as to why I think that is a bad idea in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. Also, put this in your pipe and smoke it – do you know how many seasons A-Gone has had with a .300 average and 30 homers? The answer is zero. There are a lot of reasons to think A-Gone will be extremely productive this season, and if healthy a .300-30 season seems a strong bet, but that doesn’t mean he’ll improve to the level of being a top-10 selection. I would only suggest that you do your own analysis and take into account your own thoughts on the matter and don’t blindly jump in because it’s what everyone else is doing. Sometimes doing the old zig while everyone is zagging is beneficial. Don’t be a sheep following the others, be your own person and lead based on what you think is right, even if it is counter to the commonly accepted position of the “experts.”

The World of Numbers

I love numbers – you might have gathered that if you have read anything I have ever written. If you have a few more minutes to kill reading my work, click on the link to By the Numbers where I talk about the historical greatness of Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome to name but a few of the players I tackle in the piece.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers