A Risk Worth Taking?

Besides me, who else is counting on Oliver Perez to have a big second half? From time to time I write about my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team, and that league consists of 15-teams with 30 players per roster. Given the depth of the penetration into the player pool, there are always a handful of players on each roster that might cause someone to pause if they are used to traditional 10-12 team leagues. So before you think – Ray is a doofus – realize we are talking about some pretty deep rosters here. Back to Oliver Perez.

Perez is one of the names that I picked up off waivers this season. A risky play? For sure as the man walks more batters per nine than just about any starter in the game, but oh does he look dominating when he is on. Problem is, that rarely occurs. Here’s to hoping it occurs, more often than not, the rest of way. That might be a fairly large wish though — perhaps I’ll leave that wish for the tooth fairy.

Why did I grab Perez? Well, after Andy Sonnanstine seemed to forget that the name of the game wasn’t to allow a run per inning (he has a 6.61 ERA), and Ian Snell thought he would try to pitch his way out of Pittsburgh with some awful work (5.36 ERA, 1.62 WHIP), I realized I needed something other than a staff consisting of names like Jamie Moyer. So I took a shot an picked up Perez, weeks ago, in the hope that he would come through. What other waiver-wire guy in a 15 team league has k-per-inning potential?

Another hurler with a similar skill set down to the potentially prolific K-rate as well as the atrocious walk rate is Brandon Morrow of the Mariners who we also picked up on the cheap off the waiver-wire (by the way, isn’t the picture above one of the best you have ever seen? For those of you that don’t know – a form of rookie hazing in baseball is having the youngsters carry the veterans gear, often in things like little girls backpacks). Possibly the only pitcher in baseball who has a more difficult time throwing strikes than Perez, Morrow has thrown 174 innings in his career while waling 115 batters leading to an embarrassing average of 5.95 walks per nine innings pitched in his brief career. Of course, his stuff is untouchable as his K/9 mark of 9.62 is superb. Obviously the kid has talent to burn, but until he starts throwing strikes more consistently he will be maddening to own (he should return from the minors to make a start of July 25th if everything goes according to plan).

The third arm in our Trifecta of Terror is Joba Chamberlain (and yes I’m still not sure if the terror will be most acutely directed toward opposing batters or my blood pressure). Joba clearly hasn’t performed as hoped for in his transition to the starting rotation as he has only four victories, a 4.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP through 17 starts this year. Still, his K/9 rate is 7.89 which is a strong mark, and if you add in his work out of the bullpen he has a 9.70 K/9 mark over 213.1 career innings. However, like the other two mentioned above, he is walking far too many batters, though by comparison his 4.25 BB/9 mark actually isn’t that awful.

So is rostering these three guys a risk worth taking? My club need wins and strikeouts, and these three could bring that. In fact, I can pretty easily dream up a scenario with the trio striking out nearly a batter per inning the rest of the way, but the key is will they be able to locate their pitches better, because without that, there ratios could be outright destructive. I know it’s a risk, but sometimes you have to take that leap of faith when the alternatives are guys like Vincente Padilla, Jeff Suppan and Micah Owings. I’m going to close my eyes, pray really hard, and hope these three potentially dominating arms are in fact dominating and not destructive to my fantasy squad. One can hope can’t he?

By Ray Flowers

Life Just Isn't Fair

Continuing my basically week long rant against the world and “the man,” I wanted to voice some continued frustration at the plight of one of my baseball team’s, the one that I have rostered in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). For those of you who haven’t ever played, it’s a nationwide event with a grand prize of $100,000. Leagues are 15 teams, 5 x 5 scoring, with 30 spots on each roster, and we use a FAAB bidding process with no trading allowed. Because of the depth of the rosters, help off of waivers is often tough to find, so sometimes you have to just sit a struggling player on your bench and hope he comes around as there may not be any better options left to pick up off waivers. Here are a few specific gripes I have with my club which currently sits in 8th place (last year we finished one run, that’s right, one run, out of first place in my 15-team league, so I was obviously already frustrated with this league even before I drafted my team for 2009. By the way, I co-manage the team with Fanball big-wig Ryan Houston).

Dan Haren has been utterly spectacular at fourth in the NL in ERA (2.42), first in WHIP (0.86), third in innings pitched (78) and he has been the toughest starter in the league to hit with a .201 batting average against. Thanks to the suck-ass D’backs offense however, he is just 4-4 through 11 starts which is one of the main reasons our team is 14th in the league in wins. Another reason for this fact is that Joba Chamberlain has just three victories in 10 starts despite a 3.71 ERA for the Yankees. Toss in the work of Jered Weaver who has been spectacular (5-2, 2.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and those three guys have pitched 207 innings, a full seasons worth, while producing a 2.70 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, all the while producing only a 12-7 record. For a little historical perspective, do you know how many pitchers have posted an ERA below 2.75 with a WHIP below 1.05 only to win 12 or fewer games in a season of at least 162 innings since 2000? Try one by Ben Sheets in 2004 (he went 12-14 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.

On offense, we needed power late as we had a ton of batting average potential (guys like Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Michael Young and Placido Polanco) so we took a shot at three guys who we thought should produce something along the lines of about 90 home runs while hitting .250 in Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Rick Ankiel. Giambi has gone deep the past two days, but the trio has so far underperformed that I almost threw a Nerf football at the television last night out of frustration. Combined, they have hit .231 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI in 419 at-bats. Great job guys.

To be fair, we’ve certainly had a few things work out.

Our first pick, Albert Pujols, has once again been magnificent with his .343-16-45-42-7 line.

Our ninth round selection, Joe Mauer, has been flipping awesome. We did this draft in late March, and at the time no one knew what to expect from Mauer – there were even whispers about surgery and potentially missing half the season. But we felt that we could no longer pass on him in the ninth round, and he has rewarded that faith with a month and a half that none of us have ever seen from a catcher as he is batting .436 with 12 home runs, 35 RBI and 32 runs through just 31 games.

And finally, our 30th and final round pick, Marco Scutaro, who we took for his versatility (2B, SS, 3B) which can be huge in a league as deep as this one, is hitting .298 with five home runs, five steals, and 43 runs scored in 55 games. Not a bad number 436 pick eh?

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, we all know that. So let’s hope our guys all have a strong finishing kick and we can hang close enough for it to matter once we hit the month of September.

By Ray Flowers

Who Wants a Playmate?

Everyone wants to date the playmate or drive the Ferrari, but since most of the time playmates aren’t exactly rocket scientists, and Ferrari’s cost roughly the GDP of the state of Alaska. Sometimes it is just a safer move to date the girl next door while driving a Prius. Why do I bring this up? Let me draw a comparison between two hurlers that were ranked fairly closely heading into the 2009 season. Be honest, which one would you prefer to have rostered for opening day?

The Playmate: Joba Chamberlain
Heading into the season, everyone was all over the kid from New York who had the heat, and the results of a hurler who could challenge for the AL Cy Young as early as this season once the Yanks decided to place him in the starting rotation. Looking at his work in his first two seasons, there was every reason to believe that Joba was on the cusp of something special.

6-3, 2.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11.00 K/9, 3.38 K/BB over 124.1 innings.

Of course, Joba had never thrown 160-innings in a season in his life, and he had dealt with some shoulder issues at the end of 2008 and in camp early this season. Still, that right arm simply oozed with serious potential. Was the potential for a massively dominating season, on a Yankee club that always racks up the victory, enough to sway you in his direction?

The Girl Next Door: Javier Vazquez
Moving back to the NL to pitch for the Braves, most pundits predicted an increase in production from what Vazquez did for the White Sox in 2008 (12-16, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 214 K). After all, he would be facing weaker lineups and pitching in a home ballpark that is much fairer to pitchers than the yard in Chicago. Still, for all those pluses, Vazquez had always been a tease. Blessed with tremendous stuff, he always seemed to have that one bad stretch in a game that cost him a chance at victory (his career record of 131-133 is obvious proof of that). In addition, It’s not like his ERA has ever been strong (4.30 for his career). Still, despite all of that, there was one thing about the “tortoise” that we should mention – he was consistently good even if he never reached the level of greatness.

From 2000-08, a span of nine years, Vazquez was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed at least 195 innings each year while winning 10 games and accruing 150 strikeouts each season.

Again, it’s not like you are going to do cartwheels down the street if one of your hurlers were to produce those numbers, but at the same time, knowing you can bank on that type of consistency from a pitcher, who we all know have more ups and downs that a roller coaster, should count for something.

So, were you seduced by the power of the dark side, or did you play it safe and take the boring route?

Here are each hurler’s efforts so far this season.

The Playmate – Chamberlain
2-1, 3.97 ERA, 46 K, 1.57 WHIP in 45.1 IP

The Girl Next Door – Vazquez
4-4, 3.97 ERA, 78 K, 1.57 WHIP in 64 IP

I have always been a slow and steady guy, and the truth is as much as I would love to date a playmate, I know that the smart money if I want to have an authentic relationship would be to date the girl next door. So wouldn’t you know it, after all of these years taking the slow and steady approach, I finally went all in and chose Chamberlain over Vazquez this season. Just goes to show you that more often than not your first inclination is probably the right one, so trust your gut, lest you end up dating a broken down playmate who has little to offer once her outer beauty fades.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday's Thoughts

Today I’m going with some short hitting, somewhat irreverent comments about a handful of players around the diamond. So, giddy-up.

Ryan Braun got yet another MRI, this one on his sore back. There is nothing structurally wrong with his body according to the test, so the hope is that he will be able to work through the aches and pains. There is no truth to the rumor that Braun’s body functions like a giant magnet after all his early season tests.

Chris Carpenter played catch on Monday. Whoopie. You know you are an injured mess when that is news. I played catch with my buddies son over the weekend. I called the San Francisco Chronicle to tell them, but they told me they didn’t have any more space on the front page to make a note. In all seriousness, Carpenter should throw off the mound this weekend, or something like that, so he is still weeks away from a possible return.

Now we know where he gets his addictions. According to an Associated Press report, Joba Chamberlain’s mother has been arrested for selling methamphetamine to an undercover cop. Man the Yankees are a mess. The only shot Joba has to avoid this becoming a nation-wide story is if the book on A-Rod takes away the press. You gotta think that Joba, for one, is glad A-Rod is his teammate right now as the A-Rod story will likely be the lead story for ESPN for probably the next, oh I don’t know, 113 days?

Tom Glavine threw off the mound on Monday and said that his left shoulder felt fine. He will likely throw another session later in the week and then will likely need a couple of minor league outings before being considered for a spot in the Braves rotation. Out of the big-3 that the Braves used to boast (including John Smoltz), how is it that Greg Maddux is the only one not trying to continue his pitching career?

David Ortiz hit a couple of line drives last night off of Phil Hughes. He still hasn’t gone deep this year (99 at-bats), but he looked pretty locked last night. He may have just turned the corner. Speaking of Hughes, how is it that a guy that throws that hard, with some decent movement as well, just can’t seem to lock it in. Maybe it’s because he wears number 65. I know the Yankees have a lot of retired numbers that are unavailable, but Hughes, you aren’t on the ice wearing skates, so pick a baseball number.

Oliver Perez will remain with the Mets and work on his control issues in the bullpen. Why? When you walk 21 batters in 21.2 innings you don’t deserve to be paid for your work, let alone rewarded with first class meals, flights and hotels in “The Show”. Man, I wish I was left-handed.

Carlos Zambrano has indeed been placed on the DL with his hamstring injury. I’m only surprised he didn’t end up on the DL earlier in the year with some sort of oblique strain considering how hard he swings the lumber. Speaking of that, who is the best hitter amongst pitchers? The list may not be limited to Zambrano and Micah Owings, but they are certainly both near the top. Here are the career numbers for each.

Zambrano: .240-17-49-55 in 512 ABs. He also has 182 K and six walks.
M. Owings: .315-5-23-17 in 130 ABs. He also has 43 K and seven walks.

Man that Owings can hit can’t he? In fact, if we get a little crazy and extrapolate his level of production over 500-AB, we end up with a batting line that any fantasy leaguer in the world would take in their outfield: .315-19-88-65 with a .894 OPS. Could we see a Rick Ankiel conversion here from the hill to the field if Owings can’t find his grove on the mound? After all, he does owns one rather average pitching line in his 279.2 inning career with a 4.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.56 K/9 and a 2.00 K/BB mark. Speaking of Ankiel, that sure was scary last night when he face planted into that wall. Thank goodness he’s OK, though he might still end up on the DL just to make sure everything is alright.

By Ray Flowers

Friday Musings

I’m depressed. My Sharks, and yes I’m still claiming them even after the stinker they laid last night, now trail the Ducks 1-0 in their first round series after falling to their rivals from the south 2-0 in Game 1. Look, everyone knows that you can’t win every game, but that doesn’t mean it takes the sting out of things when the inevitable occurs. Still, the way it happened almost made me physically ill. The Sharks, who led the NHL in points (117) as well as posting the best record in the league at home, they lost only five games at the “Tank” all year in regulation (they went 32-5-4), looked awful in an embarrassing shutout loss. They had better bring it in Game 2 on Sunday, and by bring it I mean they had better bring a passion and dedication to sacrifice and lay “it” all on the line, something that they all said they were ready to do this year but barely flashed at all in Game 1. Disappointing.

Joba Chamberlain was awful today needed 93 pitches to make it through only 4.2 innings. Maybe he was drunk. OK, that was tasteless and I want to say I’m sorry, but come on Joba, you’re killing me with these up and down performances. Either bring it or head back to the bullpen. Scratch that. Stay in the rotation. I don’t have much use for my second starting pitcher hurling 98 mph cheese in the 8th inning.

Alex Gordon’s hip surgery was a success and he could be back on the filed shortly after the All-Star break according to initial projections. I can just hear all those people who took my advice and grabbed him to be their starter at third base this season saying something like ‘that’s just dandy.’

Mike Pelfrey will likely be scratched from his next start due to lingering concern over forearm tendonitis. Does anyone in a mixed league care? I’m not ready to predict a Fausto Carmona like fall for Pelfrey this season, but at the same time I really don’t see much of a difference in either guy’s stuff or outlook. Think I’m full of it? Check out the numbers.

Carmona (’07): 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 0.67 HR/9
Pelfrey (’08): 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.93 K/9, 1.72 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9

Carmona (’08): 5.44 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.33 K/9, 0.83 K/BB, 0.52 HR/9
Pelfrey (’09): OK, it wouldn’t make any sense to list his numbers after just two starts and 10 IP, but the point is that both players rely on sinkers and their defense, and neither one excites me for fantasy purposes. I see Pelfrey at risk, if this injury issue lingers at all, of having a substantial drop off in his performance from last season.

Chris Perez laid a fat pitch in at the knees right over the plate to Alfonso Soriano in the bottom of the eighth inning. As a result, the Cards went from 7-6 lead to an 8-7 deficit as Soriano deposited the pitch in the bleachers. Give the quickness with which Tony LaRussa has made decisions this year we may never see Perez pitch with the Cardinals every again. That statement is clearly hyperbole, but at the same time this outing likely will mute the rush to the waiver-wire to add the since recalled reliever. Speaking of relievers in this game, that Carlos Marmol kid is flat out filthy. His fastball was “only” registering 94 on the gun in his battle with Ryan Ludwick, but for a guy who has a 20-game hitting streak and also one who blasted two home runs earlier in the day he looked completely overmatched in the at-bat. It was good morning, good afternoon and goodnight for Ludwick, all on fastballs that he missed by plenty. Still don’t really get why the Cubs aren’t using Marmol in the ninth every time the need arises and not just here and there like today (what does Kevin Gregg have on Lou Pinalla?).