Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 9

I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Thursday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer
2. Carlos Ruiz

Mauer is always a good play, period. When he sees John Lackey on the hill he becomes an elite play. Mauer is 10-for-23 (.435) with a couple of big flies against the righty.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly started out on fire since he returned from his PED suspension, and he faces Patrick Corbin who has been nails this season. Still, Ruiz has always had success against lefties (.801 career OPS) and he’s also shown a nice power stroke against lefties with 16 homers and 76 RBIs over 573 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. James Loney
2. Brandon Belt

It’s time to give Loney some props for what has been a phenomenal start to his 2013 season. Not only is he batting .417 the past week but he’s hitting .385 on the season (who’s talking about that?). He’s only 2-for-9 against R.A. Dickey but the knuckleballer has allowed 14 runs over his last 19 innings while losing 3-straight games.

Belt has been in and out of the lineup, and he’s not exactly been impressive when on the field. So why suggest starting him Thursday? He faces Julio Teheran who has allowed batters to hit .333 off him this season pushing his career mark in 54.1 innings up to .301.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Daniel Murphy

Uggla is warming up at the dish (6-game hitting streak including three homers) and he faces Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t exactly been impressive this season (for more on Vogelsong see Mound Mayhem).

Murphy faces lefty Jeff Locke. Murphy likes to face lefties. He’s batting .327 against them this year, he hit .283 against them last year, and for his career he’s hit .281 with eight homers and 63 RBIs over the course of 427 at-bats.

THIRD BASE
1. Martin Prado
2. Miguel Tejada

Prado has been up and down this season (he’s hitting a mere .227 on the year though he does have 19 runs scored in 33 games). He hasn’t exactly hammered Cole Hamels but he has produced 15 hits while striking out only five times in 55 at-bats.

Two veterans square off when Tejada faces Freddy Garcia. In 58 previous at-bats Tejada has hit .310 with 13 RBIs. He’s also hit well this season with seven hits in 19 at-bats (.368).

SHORTSTOP
1. Maicer Izturis
2. Stephen Drew

Izturis has three hits in seven at-bats against Mr. Price of the Rays. Izturis has also hit well the past week with a .286 mark over his last 21 at-bats.

Drew is finally locked in at the dish, and it’s been a while since we could say that (he’s hit .381 with a homer and five RBIs the past week). He’s had some moderate success against Mr. Correia with a .250 average, one homer and six RBIs, but I just feel good about the matchup. Sue me.

OUTFIELD
1. Shane Victorino
2. Jose Bautista

Normally Kevin Correia gets beaten up by a lot of folks. He’s been impressive this season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the Twins but look for Victorino to have some success given that he’s 6-for-14, a .429 average, with a homer and six RBIs.

Bautista hasn’t looked “right” for a large portion of the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him in what seems like a really tough matchup on paper. Bautista has hit .355 with four homers and seven RBIs in 31 at-bats against David Price who hasn’t looked like himself for much of 2013 either.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. David Price
3. Jason Vargas
4. Doug Fister

Guthrie faces his old team, the Orioles, and he’s dominated the players currently on the roster holding them to a .167 average and .460 OPS over 48 at-bats. With a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season he seems like the proverbial must-start.

Look past the 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP of Price this season and you will note that there is still a lot going on there that is positive. Remove Mr. Bautista from current Jays players and you will find that Price has allowed just two homers in 152 at-bats to the rest of the club and that the rest of the unit is hitting just .230 against him as he has gone 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA against the Jays.

Vargas has held current Astros batters to two hits in 27 at-bats. He also tossed a nine inning shutout in his last outing and has dropped his ERA on the year down to 3.72.

And finally for those looking at early games, Fister is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. He faces the Nationals on the road, and batters have hit just .234 against him on the road this season.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies & Prospects – Are They Worth It?

So you want to be one of those “smart” people in fantasy baseball that takes the hot shot rookie for the “upside” play early in the draft OK, maybe you aren’t that person, but let’s say you are more than willing to scoop up that prospect in the 15th round because of the “boring” options that are available. As I point out all the time, give me a team of Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Adam LaRoche and Michael Cuddyer and nine times out of 10 I will crush your team of Jurickson Profar, Domonic Brown, Dylan Bundy and Mike Olt. It’s just the way it is. Well, it’s the way I tell you it is without actually attempting to quantify that position with facts. Now we have them.

The following discussion comes from the mind of Kyle Elfrink. It’s not just his brainchild, in terms of him coming up with the idea, but it’s also penned by him. So special thanks to Kyle for the research he did to dig up the facts, and for allowing me to post his words here on the site.

I searched Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects (perhaps the most trusted source on minor leaguers) every year, going back to the turn of the century in 2000. (note: I did not include either 2011 or 2012 because it’s too early to give close-to-definitive answers on players). Here’s what I found.

- 89 different prospects were listed as ‘Top 10′ over the course of 11 years (many players were repeats from one year to the next).

- 29 of those 89 were ‘hits/fantasy assets’ (32.5%)

- 22 of those 89 were ‘OK fantasy players’ (24.7%)

- 38 of those 89 were ‘misses/busts’ (42.8%)

- If you repeat from one year to the next, your chances are quite good of becoming a serviceable MLB player (Joe Mauer was a ‘top 10′ prospect for four years!).

- Hitters have a far better success rate than pitchers … 31 of the 52 ‘hits’ and ‘ok’s’ have been hitters.

- Projections have become much better in the past few seasons.

- ’04 and ’05 are the only years since 2000 with more than three hits.

- What has the ‘Top-3′ done over the years?  Well, not including ‘repeats’, there are 10 hits, eight misses, and 3 OKs … less than 50% of the top-3 (i.e., guys that most everyone thought would become All-Stars) since 2000 has been a ‘hit’ … i.e. a good fantasy player.

- 2013 list - 1. Jurickson Profar 2. Dylan Bundy 3. Oscar Taveras 4. Wil Myers 5. Jose Fernandez 6. Shelby Miller 7. Gerrit Cole 8. Xander Bogaerts 9. Miguel Sano 10. Byron Buxton

- History says that three of these will be hits … two will be hitters … Profar, Bundy, Myers, and Miller are repeats from previous years, thus helping their odds

2000 – 0 hits, 3 OK, 6 miss, 1 repeat
1. Ankiel (MISS)
2. Burrell (OK)
3. C. Patterson (MISS)
4. V. Wells (OK)
5. N. Johnson (MISS)
6. R. Mateo (MISS)
7. Burroughs
8. Furcal (OK)
9. R. Anderson (MISS)
10. Patterson (MISS)

2001 – 3 hits, 2 OK, 1 miss, 4 repeats
1. Hamilton (HIT)
2. C. Patterson
3. Beckett
4. Rauch (MISS)
5. Sheets (OK)
6. Burroughs
7. Sabathia (HIT)
8. R. Anderson
9. Ichiro (HIT)
10. N. Johnson

2002 – 3 hits, 1 OK, 6 miss
1.Beckett (HIT)
2.Prior (MISS)
3.Blalock (MISS)
4.Burroughs (MISS)
5.Pena (OK)
6.Cruz (MISS)
7.Mauer (HIT)
8.Betemit (MISS)
9.Henson (MISS)
10.Tex (HIT)

2003 – 4 hits, 2 repeat, 4 miss
1.Tex
2.Baldelli (MISS)
3.Reyes (HIT)
4.Mauer
5.Foppert (MISS)
6.Contreras (MISS)
7.Phillips (HIT)
8.Matsui (HIT)
9.Floyd (MISS)
10.K-Rod (HIT)

2004 – 4 hits, 1 repeat, 3 OKs, 2 miss
1.Mauer
2.Upton (HIT)
3.Del. Young (OK)
4.Ed. Jackson (OK)
5.R. Weeks (HIT)
6.Rios (HIT)
7.K. Matsui (MISS)
8.Miller (MISS)
9.Sizemore (OK)
10.P. Fielder (HIT)

2005 – 2 hits, 3 repeats, 5 miss
1.Mauer
2.F. Hernandez (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Stewart (MISS)
5.Guzman (MISS)
6.Kotchman (MISS)
7.Kazmir (MISS)
8.R. Weeks
9.Marte (MISS)
10.H. Ramirez (HIT)

2006 – 3 hits, 1 repeat, 2 OK, 4 miss
1.Del. Young
2.J. Upton (HIT)
3.Wood (MISS)
4.Hermida (MISS)
5.S. Drew (MISS)
6.Liriano (OK)
7.Billingsley (OK)
8.Verlander (HIT)
9.Miledge (MISS)
10.Cain (HIT)

2007 – 2 hits, 3 OK, 2 repeat, 3 miss
1.Dice-K (MISS)
2.Al. Gordon (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Hughes (OK)
5.Bailey (OK)
6.Maybin (OK)
7.Longoria (HIT)
8.B. Wood (MISS)
9.J. Upton
10.Miller (MISS)

2008 – 3 hits, 4 miss, 3 repeat
1.Bruce (HIT)
2.Longoria
3.Chamberlain (MISS)
4.Buchholz (MISS)
5.Rasmus (MISS)
6.Maybin
7.Kershaw (HIT)
8.F. Morales (MISS)
9.Bailey
10.Price (HIT)

2009 – 2 hit, 3 OK, 3 repeat, 2 miss
1.Wieters (OK)
2.Price
3.Rasmus
4. T. Hanson (OK)
5.Heyward (HIT)
6.Snider (MISS)
7.B. Anderson (MISS)
8. Maybin
9.Bumgarner (HIT)
10.N. Feliz (OK)

2010 – 3 hits, 4 OK, 1 miss, 2 repeat
1.Heyward
2.Strasburg (HIT)
3.Stanton (HIT)
4.J. Montero (OK)
5.Matsuz (MISS)
6.D. Jennings (OK)
7.Posey (HIT)
8.Alvarez (OK)
9.N. Feliz
10.C. Santana (OK)

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Since we all know I’m full of myself, let me do what just such a person is want to do and quote myself (from the article Fanball & Sirius Show League). “My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.” How do you like them apples? The problem with Headley is that what he accomplished in 2012 was so far out of the norm for him that it’s exceedingly difficult to think that he as any chance of fully repeating that effort in 2013.

Headley’s most obvious step forward was in the homer category. Headley had never hit more than 12 homers in a season, and from 2009-11 he hit a total of 27 home runs. How in the world did he go deep 31 times last season? Great question. The first thing I do when witnessing such a massive step is to check a guys HR/F ratio. It’s damn telling in this situation. Headley posted a 21.4 percent mark, the 10th best mark in baseball. Tenth. Remember, the guy hit more homers in 2012 than he hit the previous three years – combined. As you hopefully get without me having to tell you, something is fishy here. Traditionally, analysts look at rolling three years periods to help get a feel for something like a players HR/F ratio. Let’s look at his marks from 2009-11: 7.6, 6.4 and 4.3 percent. Add those three numbers together and you get 18.3 percent. That’s lower than his 2012 mark. The fact is that there is no way anyone could have predicted his HR/F explosion last year. There is also no way that any rational person can think he will repeat that total in 2013. This situation brings back memories of Joe Mauer. You remember when Mauer hit 28 homers in 2009 after hitting 29 homers the previous three years? Do you remember how I predicted that his homer total would fall back to single digits (I was mercifully called an idiot for that claim)? What happened the following season for Mauer? He regressed to nine homers. Just take a look at the HR/F ratios of Mauer from 2006-10: 10.8, 7.2, 6.5, 20.4, 6.7 percent. I’m going to predict that Headley follows a similar path with his his HR/F ratio, that it will likely be cut in half in 2013 from his 2012 level. If that happens Headley will have a hard time hitting 20 homers. Why? Lost amidst all the homers is the fact that he was about to more than double his previous career best homer total despite a career low fly ball rate of 32.1 percent. In fact, his fly ball rate has gone down each of the past three years (38.3, 36.0, 32.3 and 32.1 percent). Doom is in the forecast here.

Let’s look at his GB/FB ratio. Here are his yearly totals: 0.83, 1.04, 1.18, 1.28, 1.42 and 1.51. You don’t have to be a math major to understand that trend. Every year of his career his percentage of ground balls has risen. That’s not, as already mentioned, going to allow him to hit 30 homers again though it might help him to hit .285 again (a number he has reached each of the past two seasons). Headley also posted a 12.3 percent walk rate in 2012, and that should help him limit the walks a bit, though he also had a four year high with his K-rate so his 0.55 BB/K ratio wasn’t a very strong mark. Headley still has a posted an OBP in the .370′s the past two years, and that’s a strong number in today’s game.

It’s also pretty darn difficult to think that Headley will knock in 115 runs again while scoring 95 runs of his own. Looking at the RBIs, how did he get to such a huge number when he hit only .274 with RISP and .203 with RISP and 2 outs? The Padres, after all, were 23rd in runs scored in 2012. Can you say opportunistic hitting? The data simply doesn’t support a repeat of either number (and moving the fences in at Petco a few feet doesn’t figure to have a huge effect).

The steals? I’ll give Headley kudos there. His ability to swipe a base – he’s been in double-digits the past four years and has swiped 17 in two of the past three years – has always propped up the value of Headley in the fantasy game.

After years of being undervalued the pendulum has swung with Chase. He’ll now be taken too early on draft day after what was very likely to be his career best effort. Here’s a definitive statement: Headley will not replicate his homer, RBI or runs scored marks in 2013. The average and steals are repeatable, but if he gives you 75% of his last seasons production in the other categories we’d be talking 23 homers, 86 RBIs and 71 RBIs. All of those numbers were still be career best efforts prior to last season. Headley could end the year as a top-10 third baseman but your setting yourself up for major disappointment if you are thinking a top-5 finish is in the cards.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 12, 2012

(1) Dustin Pedroia overcoming slow start with impressive play.

(2) Joe Mauer = the quiet superstar.

(3) John Axford rolling in 9th inning.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes budding fantasy superstar?

(5) Vernon Wells vs. Mark Trumbo.

(6) Brandon Belt surging but lacking pop.

(7) Jordan Pacheco to see some time at catcher.

(8) Ben Zobrist picks up SS eligibility to add to 2B and OF.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Elvis Andrus vs. Jered Weaver: A tough matchup on paper given Weaver’s dominance and fly ball ways, Andrus has had no issue whatsoever getting on base against Jered as he’s posted 21 hits in 49 at-bats (.429).

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Mr. Mauer has one homer against Mr. Hochevar and six walks, but it’s the 11 hits in 23 at-bats (.478) that grab ones attention. Oh yeah, that .586 OBP ain’t too bad either.

Rickie Weeks vs. Homer Bailey: Hitting .197 on the year and .182 the past week, Weeks just can’t get anything going. You’ll know it’s a lost season of he doesn’t get a couple of knocks in this matchup given that he’s hit .524 with two homers and seven RBIs against Bailey in 21 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Trevor Cahill vs. Astros: Call this one a hunch. Cahill hasn’t pitched well at home with a 3-4 record, 4.78 Era and 1.45 WHIP. He’s also never faced the Astros, and he’s lost three of his last four starts this season. So why suggest starting him? After the Astros made that huge move to add seven players I’d figure the clubhouse is in a bit of shock.

Kevin Correia vs. Marlins: The last time he faced the Fish it was a disaster as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings back on May 15th, but he has won his last four decisions. He’s also had a lot of success this year at home with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts though you shouldn’t be expecting many punchouts (he has just 17 in 43.2 innings at home).

Luke Hochevar vs. Twins: His career numbers against the club from Minnesota stink (4-4, 5.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), but he’s been pitching pretty well of late. He’s 3-1 in his last four decisions, isn’t beating himself (12 walks in seven games), and he’s lowered his ERA from 6.63 to 5.16 over his last seven trips to the bump.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Bobby Abreu vs. Miguel Bautista: This matchup goes back years and Abreu has come out the victor an awful lot with a .387 batting average and 1.072 OPS in 31 at-bats (he has gone deep once with nine RBIs as well).

Matt Diaz vs. Jon Lannan: The Nationals lefty will get his chance to shin in a return to the big leagues, but he’s going to want to make sure he avoids Diaz if possible as the Braves outfielder has hit .424 with a 1.032 OPS against John in 33 at-bats.

Ian Kinsler vs. Ervin Santana: Kinsler only has one homer and five RBIs in the matchup but he also has 18 hits in 47 at-bats, good for a .383 average and 1.038 OPS. Michael Young also bears watching as he’s hit .351 with 13 RBIs in 74 ABs against Santana. Oddly Young has 16 Ks in 74 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Brewers: Talk about some success. Arroyo has held the Brew Crew to a .213/.274/.360 line in 272 at-bats. Remove the four homers of Ryan Braun and the other Brewers have taken the homer prone hurler deep just five times in 229 at-bats.

Scott Diamond vs. Royals: Diamond is sporting an 8-3 record with a 2.96 ERA on the year, but he’s coming off a poor start that saw him allow five runs and nine hits in six innings. Still he’s been successful this year and current Royals batters are hitting .207 off Diamond with a .499 OPS in 29 at-bats.

Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: This is a risky call. On the one hand Jackson has been bombed over his last three starts allowing 16 runs over his last 13.2 innings. On the other hand he’s had a lot of success against current Braves batters holding them to a .206 average, .559 OPS and no homers in 68 at-bats.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers  

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

John Buck vs. Cliff Lee: Buck has been awful this year but in his last six games he has three homers and seven RBI. He’s also got a matchup that he has had success in given that he has hit .317 with three homers an a 1.001 OPS over 41 at-bats against the one time ace lefty.

Ryan Roberts vs. Randy Wolf: Roberts isn’t exactly tearing it up, but with Josh Bell demoted he has a shot to reclaim a daily role with the club. He hit a homer in his last game and Friday he faces Wold who he has produced seven hits in 15 at-bats against (.467 with one homer). By the way, don’t start Wolf Friday. He’s allowed a .329/.391/.574 slash line to the current D’backs roster in 155 at-bats.

B.J. Upton vs. Justin Verlander: You know the term ‘playing with fire?’ Here we go with that. Upton has been in a terrible slump that has led to one hit in six games, and he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Still, the numbers suggest it’s not as bad as it seems as Upton has eight hits, including a homer, in 18 at-bats against Verlander leading to a .444 average and five RBIs (Hideki Matsui has also had some success hitting .333 in 24 at-bats).

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ross Detwiler vs. Braves: He hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career with a 3.80 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 23.2 innings, but his numbers this season against everyone look impressive (3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Plus, he’s been locked in for the month of June with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 16.1 innings.

Brian Duensing vs. Royals: This is one of those shot in the dark calls based totally on history and pretty much nothing else. Brian D. has made only one start this year so he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, and his last outing was unsuccessful (4 ER in 2 IP). Still, history says he makes for a nice play against the Royals: 6-2, 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings.

Mike Leake vs. Giants: Leake has killed it in June with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.50 K/BB ratio (though he’s only gone 1-0, great job Reds). The negative? He faces Matt Cain.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Wilson Betemit vs. Josh Tomlin: Three things make this move make sense. (1) Betemit is 7-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Tomlin. (2) Betemit has been hot in June hitting .383 with a 1.008 OPS in 60 at-bats. (3) Tomlin has been awful in June with a 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10 Ks in 26.2 innings.

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Just seeing this matchup should interest you, even if you had no idea about their history versus one another. Given that Mauer is hitting .450 with a .577 OBP against Hochevar in 26 plate appearances, it’s lock and load time with the star hitting catcher.

Placido Polanco vs. Mark Buehrle: Normally Polanco would be the last guy to pay any attention at all too since all he does is produce singles. Still, you simply cannot overlook his massive career efforts against the Miami lefty. In 41 career at-bats Polanco has, get this, 18 hits leading to a .439 batting average against Buehrle.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Michael Fiers vs. D’backs: He’s looked pretty darn good this season for the Brew Crew with 31 Ks and just five walks over 33.1 innings. That will play in any league. He’s also working on a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention that he has allowed just one run over his last 15.1 innings.

Mat Latos vs. Giants: He gets the weak link of the Giants staff in Barry Zito, and he’s also dominated the club from San Fran in 10 career starts with a 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.

Rick Porcello vs. Tampa Bay: His season has been an uneven one, what else is new, but he’s looked pretty locked in over his last two starts permitting three runs over 13 innings. He’s also going to be facing a club that he ha had success against in three career starts. Over 20 innings Rick P. has 17 Ks and has issued only five free passes leading to a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

CONTESTS

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. DJ has redesigned things to help you navigate the games, and let me tell you, consider me impressed. It looks pretty darn sharp – don’t you think?

By Ray Flowers 

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: When a guy has a .421 batting average against a pitcher as Jeter does against Bruce Chen, you take notice. When it comes over 38 at-bats you should pay even closer attention. When that batter is hitting .404, leading the AL in batting average, you have yourself a must start.

Carlos Lee: He seems to be over his ankle issue, and he had two hits Tuesday in his last game played. Friday he takes on Kyle Lohse, a pitcher who is on quite the roll this year (4-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), but one who he has consistently handled in his career. Lee has a substantial 70 at-bats against Lohse, and the results have been mighty impressive as they include five homers, nine RBI, a .300 average an a .965 OPS.

Mark Teixeira: Killing Bruce Chen, besides sounding like a movie title for a Kung Fu epic, could also be the title of Mark Teixeira’s outings against Chen in his career. In 19 at-bats Tex is batting .474 with, get this, a 2.003 OPS. Tex also has six homers and 13 RBI in one of the most impressive batting lines you will ever see for a batter against a pitcher.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Josh Johnson: When the competition is the Padres, opposing pitchers are always worth taking a look at. Over his last two starts Johnson has racked up 17 Ks in just 12 innings, and though his ratios this season leave a lot to be desired (5.34 ERA, 1.74 WHIP), the good news is that (a) he is healthy and (b) he’s facing the Padres in San Diego. In six career starts against the Padres Johnson is just 1-2 but he has 31 Ks in 29.2 innings while posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Batters that are currently on the Padres have hit .146 against Johnson.

Jon Lester: Are you looking for a lock? OK, there is no lock in the real world, but this is as good as it could possibly get. Lester not only has a 2.36 ERA an a 1.26 WHIP against the Orioles, but the lefty from Boston is also 14-0 against the club from Baltimore. Wow is right.

Wade Miley: The NL Rookie Pitcher of the Month going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP as he held batters to a microscopic .133 batting average against. He faces a Mets team that has scored only 95 runs, tied for 9th in the NL in runs scored.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Mark Kotsay: This is the type of play for those of you who want to load up on a ton of expensive options on your club leaving you scant money for your final player. Kotsay isn’t a lock to start, but I bet you when the coaching staff of the Padres realizes that he has produced 10 hits and eight RBI against Mark Buehrle in 23 at-bats (.435 average) they will be certain to have Kotsay in their starting lineup.

Joe Mauer: Normally when a guy is facing Felix Hernandez you are very interested in running and hiding which must be how Justin Morneau (.138) and Denard Span (.067) feel. However, one man in baseball actually relishes the matchup and that is Mauer. In an almost incomprehensible run of excellence, Mauer has 13 hits in 26 at-bats against the righty which obviously results in a .500 average. Not just hitting singles either, Mauer has two homers and four doubles amongst his 13 hits.

Martin Prado: It only seems like everyone in baseball has 25 at-bats against Jamie Moyer. Well, Prado is one of those fellas with exactly 25 at-bats, and he’s used them to produce 10 hits leading to a .400 average. He’s also powered three balls into the seats leading to a 1.263 OPS and six RBI. Pretty solid work from this professional hitter wouldn’t you say?

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chris Capuano: He faces the Cubs, a team that has produced seven hits in 31 at-bats against him amongst the current squad (.226/.273/.484). Capuano is also 8-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP against the Cubs in his career and he’s allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts this season as he’s lowered his yearly ERA down to 2.73.

James McDonald: Over his last three outings James has allowed five runs in 18.2 innings (2.41 ERA) while striking out 20 batters in 18.2 innings. Clearly he’s on a roll right now. Now he will face a Reds team that he is 3-1 against in his career with a 3.06 ERA. Current Reds hitters have also hit only .269 with a .717 OPS and just two homers in 93 at-bats.

Clayton Richard: All you need to know about Richard is whether he is starting at home or on the road. If it’s in San Diego, Richard is never a bad play. In two starts at home this year he is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.83 WHIP an in his career at Petco Park he is 12-12 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 163 Ks in 202 innings. The Marlins better be wearing their hitting shoes.

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

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By Ray Flowers