Contracts, Expectations and Bigfoot

Yadier Molina is a rich man. Buster Posey is trying to prove he is healthy. Grady Sizemore is on the sidelines yet again. A.J. Burnett needs to learn how to bunt. All this and more in today’s article at BaseballGuys.com.

For those of you looking to get a draft guide to help you to dominate the competition, I’ve got you covered.

Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million deal to remain with the Cardinals. I’ll say this, Molina is one of the most well rounded catchers currently pulling on the tools of ignorance. He’s got a rocket for an arm, calls a good game, and he took his offense to new heights last season when he reached career bests in average (.305), homers (14), RBI (65) and runs scored (55). Molina also surpassed his career OPS by .107 points with his .814 number. So clearly the Cards did the right thing in locking him up, right? Well, I don’t know about that. The contract covers Molina during his age 30-34 seasons, not exactly time to put him in an old folks home or anything, but that’s getting up there fore a catcher who is playing 135 times a season. In fact, the deal is the third largest in baseball history for a catcher behind the preposterous 8-year, $184 million that Joe Mauer received and the 7-year, $91 million deal that was lavished on Mike Piazza. Molina is a top-10 option at the catcher’s position in terms of his fantasy value for 2012 in my mind even if he fails to live up to the homer total from last season, but I worry about his ability to be a top-10 option when he turns 34 years old (of course, in the real game, defense matters a heck of a lot and that’s a good part of the reason that the Cardinals lavished Molina with that big money deal). Oh, and for reference sake, Jose Bautista signed a 5 year deal for $65 million this offseason. Molina better stay healthy and continue to be an excellent defender.

Speaking of catchers, Buster Posey will not play in the Giants Cactus League opener on Saturday. The team is taking it easy with Posey who may not actually see game action until the middle of next week. I’m still not convinced though. He still isn’t running the bases yet, and there is no telling just how well his body will handle the grind of catching since he last played a game in late May of last season. Those that are drafting him as a top-5 option at catcher and a top-75 option overall might hit it big if Posey is healthy, but at this point I’m thinking that it might be time to start waiving the cautionary yellow flag with Posey.

I’ve realized I’m a pretty good cook. At the same time, it’s all about following a recipe and having some confidence, so I shouldn’t be patting myself on the back too heavily.

Grady Sizemore will never be the player he once was. He was a 30/30 performer in 2008, and he once scored 134 runs with a .907 OPS (2006). Alas, injuries to his lower half have limited him to just 104 games played the last two years. Now we get news that he is likely to miss 8-12 weeks after needing micro disecectomy surgery on his lower back. At this point, you had better not be counting on Sizemore to help you out at all in a mixed league in 2012, or perhaps ever again unfortunately. Even if I was drafting in an AL-only league, Sizemore shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a 4^th or 5^th outfield option, an even that might be pushing it since it appears likely that a best case scenario would see him back at full strength on June 1^st. In the meantime, Michael Brantley should step into the starting role in the outfield and at the top of the batting order. If Brantley can get 500 at-bats he could be a significant AL-only option, but there is still a very real possibility that at some point when Sizemore returns Brantley will see his playing time curtailed.

Did you see the most recent “proof” that bigfoot exists? It’s a photo of something that looks awful big and hairy. Photos can be so easily manipulated anymore, but what about footprints? There was a string of tracks, 122 in all, that were recently discovered in Oregon. Why did I bother posting this information? Perhaps it’s because I always wanted to be a cryptozoologist. By the way, here’s a great story about Bigfoot and baseball players.

Poor A.J. Burnett who I wrote about in his Player Profile. Burnett was injured while bunting – who said baseball wasn’t a contact sport – and he will have surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone around his right eye Friday. It sounds like Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks, hardly a confidence inspiring start to his career with the Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Catchers

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

Today, I’ll start with the catchers position.

2011 CATCHER Top-10
1 Joe Mauer
2 Victor Martinez
3 Brian McCann
4 Buster Posey
5 Geovany Soto
6 Carlos Santana
7 Mike Napoli
8 Matt Wieters
9 Miguel Montero
10 Kurt Suzuki

Mauer was injured from start to finish and he ended up with a .287 average, three homers and 30 RBI in 296 at-bats. It was a dismal season for a man who owns a career .323 average and a Hall of Fame bat.

V-Mart showed an astonishing lack of power with only 12 home runs, but he knocked in 103 runs while hitting .330 in what was a rather remarkable season.

McCann failed to hit .275 for the second straight year (he hit .270), and he also posted a 6-year low in RBI with 71. Still, he hit 24 homers and was the only catchers in the NL to hit more than 18 homers.

Posey‘s year ended after just 162 at-bats when he was plowed over at the plate trashing his leg. He is back to catching bullpens already and the Giants hope he will be at 100 percent by spring training next year.

Soto would have been my bust of the year if not for the failings of Mauer. Soto did hit 17 homers and knock in 54 runs, but he batted .228 while his OBP of .310 was .038 points below his career mark.

Santana was the best catcher in the AL not named Martinez. Santana, in his first full season in the bigs, was the only catcher in baseball with 20 homers, 70 RBI and 70 runs scores (27, 79 and 84). The 84 runs led the position.

Napoli was a superstar this season, and I wrote all about his efforts in Player Profile: Mike Napoli.

Wieters was one of three catcher eligible players to hit 20 homers with 65 RBI and 70 runs scored (he had 22, 68 and 72). Matt killed it in the second half hitting 14 homers with a .840 OPS in 61 games.

Montero was a rock all year for the D’backs. After hitting .294-16-59 in 2009, he was injured in 2010 and limited to 85 games. He bounced back this year with the best effort of his career (.282-18-86-65).

Suzuki was my #10 catcher because of one main reason – consistency. He did appear in 130 games for a fourth straight year, and his total of 14 homers was an exact match for his 2009-10 average, but his average fell to a career worst (.237) while he lost 37 RBI from 2010 (71) and 44 from 2009 (88).

Hit: Chris Iannetta #14
The Rockies have still never given him 350 at-bats in a season, but with 345 this year he blasted 14 homers, knocked in 55 runs and scored 51 times. Only 11 catchers in the game went 14-50-50, and only three went 14-50-50 with a .370 OBP (the others were Alex Avila and Napoli). He may have hit only .238, but he walked 70 times leading to that impressive .370 OBP.

Bust: Joe Mauer #1
What more needs to be said? He stunk.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Napoli

If you don’t love yourself, who else will? Given that fact, here is a direct quote from my 2011 BaseballGuys.com Hitter Capsules from April 1st, 2011.

“For three years Mike Napoli has bashed his way to 20 homers despite an average of 354 at-bats a season. Few catchers can match his power. Adding the dimension of playing first base last season allowed him to post a career-high at-bat total, and one would think that if he ever was given 500 at-bats that he might be capable of posting that elusive 30 homer season.”

Napoli didn’t get those 500 at-bats. In fact, he didn’t even get 400. Hell, he didn’t even get 375 as he finished the year with 369 at-bats. I know he was hurt for a while there, but the Rangers horribly mismanaged him this season and as a result almost torpedoed what ended up being a magical season.

I don’t know if you noticed it, but Napoli hit 30 homers. Thirty. That’s a homer every 12.3 at-bats. If he had maintained that pace over 500 at-bats, and I’m pretty certain he couldn’t have, he would have hit 41 homers. As a result his .631 SLG was the best in baseball for a player who had at least 400 plate appearances. The power has always been his calling card, but in 2011 he also added a batting average.

Napoli, who had never hit better than .273 in a season and owned a career mark of .251 entering the year, hit .320. Not .230 but .320 (Joe Mauer owns a career mark of .323). He hit lefties (.319) and righties (.320), he hit at home (.307) and on the road (.332), and he hit at night (.318) and during the day (.324). He isn’t a .300 hitter, his BABIP this year was .344 or .041 points above his career rate, but he cut his strikeouts to a career low 19.7 percent of his at-bats, so he showed some improvement. Thanks to the lack of punchouts and a solid walk rate his BB/K mark was a well worth the price of admission at 0.68 leading to a superb .414 OBP (Mauer owns a career mark of .403). Amongst players with at least 400 plate appearances this year Napoli’s .414 mark was 5th best in baseball.

Adding his work getting on base and his ability to produce extra bases, Napoli posted a 1.046 OPS, the second best mark in baseball for a player with 400 plate appearances (Jose Bautista was 1st with a 1.056 mark).

So let’s put things in historical perspective. How many catchers in the 21st century have hit .320 with 30 homers an a 1.000 OPS? The answer is three.

.320-30-1.046 – Napoli this year
.324-38-1.012 – Mike Piazza in 2000
.328-43-1.065 – Javy Lopez in 2003

Piazza had 545 plate appearances.
Lopez had 495 plate appearances.
Napoli had 432 plate appearances.

Think it’s about time that (a) Napoli gets his due and (b) someone gives the guy 500 at-bats?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

Worth Pointing Out

Beyonce is pregnant. Add her to the list of starlets who have jumped on the bandwagon of babies of late. Is it just me or does it seem like everyone but me, who is over 25 that is, has kids? I feel like an outsider when I walk down the street. Strollers, baby wipes, crying/screaming kids… I mean, who doesn’t want that?

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

Quick, what team does Robert Andino play for? Do you even know which position? Does it matter might be the more pertinent question? The answers are Orioles, second (72 games), shortstop (23 games) and third (12), and yes. Of course a player who qualifies at multiple spots means something, but it’s what he is doing on offense right now that is so exciting. OK, I might be a tad bit optimistic by making it seem like he is excelling, but he has stolen seven bases while scoring 23 runs over his last 40 games. It ain’t great production, but if you’re in an AL-only league, or a really deep mixed league that uses middle and corner infielders, you should be aware of who he is.

Yovani Gallardo is a confounding player to own, there’s no two ways around that. Sometimes he excels at shutting down the opponent. At other points, he’s a disaster. Still, the guy can be dominating when he’s in the groove, and boy is in he the groove right now. Over his last eight starts Gallardo is 5-2. However, he’s been even better than that wonderful record would indicate with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and, most importantly, he’s just not walking anyone leading to an amazing 6.50 K/BB ratio. All told he is one of only four NL hurlers who has 15 wins, 150 Ks, a 3.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. The others are Ian Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay.

Carlos Gonzalez leads baseball with 30 RBI in 21 games in August. His total is one more than that of Curtis Granderson who leads the AL. Who leads baseball in homers in the month? How about Granderson, Dan Uggla and Evan Longoria who all have 10 long balls, one more than Joey Votto and CarGo have. In terms of runs scored, Granderson leads that pack as well with 27 runs in 25 games, three more than Ryan Braun who leads the NL and four more than Corey Hart who is second in the NL.

Derek Jeter injured his knee when he fouled a ball off it over the weekend. He’s likely to miss a few days with the injury. The setback comes at an awful time for Jeter as he has pushed his season long average up to .296. How has he done that? Jeter is hitting .344 over his last 39 games and over his last 23 games he’s been as good as just about any hitter in baseball posting a .398 batting average in August. The only batters with a better average in the month are Aramis Ramirez (.409) and Alex Avila (.400).

Joe Mauer is out of the Twins’ lineup Monday, the fifth straight game he has missed. This is yet another example of why I tell people all the time to avoid spending an early draft pick on a catcher – they are just so injury prone. Mauer is still hitting a passable .287, though that is light years from his .324 career mark, and he has all of one home run making him less valuable that a guy like Ryan Hanigan who is hitting .270 with six homers and four more RBI (29 to 25). Think back to draft day – was Hanigan even drafted? Even if he was, it was likely 20 rounds after Mauer went off the board.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June23, 2011

(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.

(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.

(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).

(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

Better Than You Thought

photo © 2009 Ron Reiring | more info (via: Wylio)

It’s sunny outside, congressman Anthony Wiener is finally resigning over “Weiner-gate”, and the San Francisco Giants are in first place. All is right in the world. Well not quite, but I’m gonna try to stay positive today in the face of the horrendous actions of those people in Vancouver who decided to act like Neanderthals last night after the Canucks fell to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup finals.

Chad Billingsley hit a new low last night allowing seven runs while making it through only four innings. That pathetic effort came on the heels of a 4.2 innings, six run outing on June 10th. Moreover, Chad has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts to drive his ERA up to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.52. If he didn’t have his name, he’d likely be on a whole lot of waiver-wire’s this morning. That’s being positive? Wait, it gets better, I promise.

Should you dump him Billingsley because of his recent stretch of failure? I say no. The easiest way to understand why I say that is to look at Billingsley’s xFIP (figured the same way as ERA, it takes into account those factors that are directly in the pitcher’s control while normalizing for a league average home run rate).

2008: 3.58
2009: 3.99
2010: 3.67
2011: 3.65

Billingsley is pitching the same as he always does, it’s just not showing up in the results. If you don’t believe xFIP, look at these numbers.

2011: 2.11 K/BB, 1.44 GB/FB, 0.61 HR/9
Career: 2.10 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 0.66 HR/9

I’m not saying if you own him you should continue to run him out there right now as he is getting pounded, but hold fast if you can. This obviously means Chad is a wonderful hurler to try and buy low on if you’re looking to bolster your pitching staff.

How the mighty have fallen. Did you see that the Angels released Scott Kazmir yesterday? At one time one of the brightest left-handed starters in baseball Kazmir, who won 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 2007, allowed 30 runs in 15.1 innings in the minors this season leading to the easy decision made by the Angels. It appears that his devastating slider simply ruined his arm. As a rookie his average fastball was 93.7 mph and last year it registered a mere 90.5 mph. His big league career could be over at age 27. So much for staying positive today like I said I would at the top of the piece.

Joe Mauer should be back in action on Friday for the struggling Twins. If you own him get him immediately back into your lineup. At the same time, you’d best hold on to whichever catcher you’ve been riding in his absence since I’m far from convinced that he’ll be able to play nearly every day.

Jorge Posada has been tearing it up the last two weeks hitting .444 over 36 at-bats. However, he didn’t hit a homer in that stretch and he’s still hitting only .227 on the season.

Welcome to the party Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies’ shortstop has two bombs, six RBI and four runs scored in his last three outings. There’s no way around the position that he has been a disappointment at time this year, but even so he’s still on pace to steal more than 30 bases, to score more than 90 times and to hit 14 homers with 64 RBI. Those are still pretty darn solid numbers for a shortstop aren’t they?

Speaking of disappointing shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki is probably second on the list behind Hanley Ramirez when you consider what preseason expectations were. Bit should he be? Tulo is on pace for 31 homers, 110 RBI and 14 steals, so don’t feel too sorry for those who took him in the first round this season.

The last 30 days… Dan Uggla has hit .133, B.J. Upton .136 and Adan Dunn .156. Think of how bad your team would currently be performing you had rostered all three of those guys this draft season. The crazy thing is, if I walked away from the draft table with those three I’d have been pumped. Guess that’s why they play the games.

By Ray Flowers

A Wacky Monday

photo © 2010 Brian Garrett | more info (via: Wylio)

There’s no rhythm or reason at all with my report today – I’m completely flying by the seat of my pants. That’s what happens when you are up late with a special lady. You just say forget it when it comes to your work and daydream about spending all your time with her.

Mitchell Boggs, the one-time closer for the Cardinals, appears likely to be demoted when the club brings Skip Schumaker back off the DL. Boggs has had a few rough spots this year no doubt, but his ratios are all still pretty darn good (3.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 4.75 K/BB). Trust me, I get why the club would send Boggs to Triple-A while holding on to Ryan Franklin – he’s a vet with a ton of end of the game experience – but if this was purely a baseball decision how in the world would Franklin remain on the roster with a 9.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9 and 1.00 K/BB over the younger, harder throwing, and more productive Boggs? Since we’re talking about the Cardinals’ bullpen, you saw that they’ve likely found their 9th inning man after Fernando Salas had a week for the ages with four saves and a win in five appearances, right? Beat that for fantasy value in a H2H setup. Through 20.2 innings he has 20 Ks, has only issued five free passes, and is sporting a 1.87 ERA. If you grabbed him off waivers you might have hit the jackpot after a month of trying to read the tea leaves in St. Louis.

Kevin Gregg has a loss, two blown saves and an ERA of nearly 8.50 over his last six outings. Meanwhile, Koji Uehara continues to hum along with vastly superior numbers including a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.35 K/9 and a 4.60 K/BB ratio. Honestly, it’s pretty shocking that the Orioles haven’t made the move to Koji. Perhaps they just aren’t convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days, but at this point I’m finding it nearly impossible to work up an argument that would favor Gregg working the ninth over Uehara.

Adam LaRoche is likely to be placed on the DL because of his injured shoulder. He can’t drive the ball a lick, his current SLG is .258, and he just isn’t right. If the club follows through with their plan that would put Mike Morse back into a prominent role since he would likely see most of the starts at first. Morse was everyone’s darling after a massive spring, but he failed to capitalize on his chance early in the year. He’s still only gone deep twice and scored five runs, horrible marks, but he does have 12 hits in his last 30 at-bats (.400) so he might be worth an add as a corner infield option for those of you looking for a bat.

Joe Mauer hopes to return to play in an extended spring training game on Tuesday. He’ll likely play in a few of those games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. There is no set date for a return, but 10-14 days seems reasonable at this point. We all knew he would be out two months, right? In case you forgot he was last seen on a big league diamond on April 12th.

Jered Weaver was 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in April. May has completely flipped his performance on its ear as he is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Here is a wonderful diddy from Elias. Weaver is the first pitcher since 1884 to win his first six decisions and then lose his next four. The last guy to do it was Jumbo McGinnis for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. In case you were wondering, Jumbo posted a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning 102 games in his career.

Finally, if you’re sending in any questions, let me know which superhero movie you are mostly looking forward to this year:

Captain America
Green Lantern
Thor
X-Men: First Class