Around the Horn: May 19, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy twirls masterpiece. Should you be buying?

(2) Colby Rasmus, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman hurt.

(3) Fernando Salas the Cards’ closer? Not so fast.

(4) Adam LaRoche = abysmal. Is a turn around coming?

(5) Injured players update – Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 12, 2011

(1) The walking woundedJoe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.

(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?

(4) Russell Martin slumping.

(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.

 

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 6, 2011

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury has a 14-game hitting streak.

(2) Roy Halladay and David Price dominating.

(3) Roy Oswalt back acting up. Could he be DL bound?

(4) Jonathan Broxton to the DL.

(5) Joe Mauer still a few weeks away.

(6) Josh Hamilton could be back at end of May.

(7) Eric Hosmer called up by Royals. Who is Eric Hosmer?

 

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 28, 2011

(1) Yovani Gallardo is struggling. Is it time to panic?

(2) Add Joe Mauer to the list of injured players I was right about (Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau)

(3) What’s wrong with Andrew McCutchen?

(4) Carlos Carrasco (elbow) to DL. Is Alex White worth a pickup?

(5) Nick Swisher 0-for-18, Carlos Lee 0-for-15. For more on Swisher see his 2011 Player Profile.

 

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 15, 2011

(1) Joe Mauer has “bilateral leg weakness” sending him to the DL.

(2) Is Jonathan Herrera worth an add in mixed leagues?

(3) Will the Tigers recall the hot Scott Sizemore to take over for Will Rhymes?

(4) Cliff Lee has a historic night – 99 pitches, 12 Ks.

(5) Alexei Ogando makes history for Rangers.

(6) Matt Kemp is a blazing with new found approach.

 

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know…

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I throw up one of these pieces every once in a while, an as we all head off to our 2010 Turkey Day celebrations I thought it apropos to look back and give thanks for some rather interesting production from the men on the diamond

Did You Know… Jose Bautista scored 49.5 percent of his runs by knocking himself in as he went deep 54 times while scoring 109 runs (the homers led baseball, the runs were 6th)? Albert Pujols, who led baseball with 115 runs, only knocked himself in 36.5 percent of the time. The only player who scored 100 runs this season while hitting less than 10 homers was the Tigers’ Austin Jackson who scored 103 times while hitting just four long balls.

Did You Know… Ian Desmond led baseball with 34 errors, seven more than any other player (Starlin Castro, 27 errors)? Castro may have caught him if he had played a full compliment of games as the Cubs’ shortstop suited up for only 123 games, 27 less than Desmond. These young shortstops both have bright futures, but both could stand to tidy things up on defense.

Did You Know… Prince Fielder was the only player in baseball to hit under .265 while posting an OBP of at least .380? Fielder hit just .261 though his 114 walks – the most in baseball – helped him to a .401 OBP. Moreover, he was the only player in baseball to post an OBP of at least .395 who didn’t hit at least .300. Yeah he had a “down” year, but Fielder was pretty darn productive despite the prevailing wisdom that he was awful because he had only 83 RBI.

Did You Know… Jeff Keppinger had the best BB/K mark in baseball amongst qualifiers (502 plate appearances) with a 1.42 mark? He was followed by arguably the two best hitters in baseball in Albert Pujols (1.36) and Joe Mauer (1.23), who in turn were followed by the only two other men in baseball who posted a mark of at least 1:1 (Daric Barton – 1.23, Chase Utley – 1.00). At the other end of the spectrum we have Andruw Jones at 0.19. If we had seven Andruw Jones and we added them together that we would still come up short of the mark of Keppinger (1.33 to 1.42).

Did You Know… Juan Pierre led baseball with 18 caught stealing attempts? Of course, he also led baseball with 68 steals so we can overlook the CS run. Still, 18 is a pretty big number when you consider that he was caught stealing more times than Nelson Cruz or Jimmy Rollins were successful (they each had 17 steals).

Did You Know… Albert Pujols is more than just a hitter as he actually led baseball in putouts (1,458), total chances (1,619) and double plays (146) in the field? He also made only four errors on the year leading to a .998 fielding percentage once again showing that he might be the most complete player in baseball – even if the talk of his greatness is usually limited to his work at the dish.

Did You Know… Mark Reynolds is the only player in baseball who hit at least 30 homers in 2010 yet failed to rap out at least 23 doubles? Reynolds had only 17. Given that he hit 28 and 30 the previous two years, his ’10 effort has to be seen as a downer. Of course, he also fell from 24 steals to just seven, while his average fell .044 points below his career rate of .242, so it wasn’t just the loss of doubles that led many a Reynolds owner to consider hitting the bottle at 11 AM in the morning through most of the 2010 season.

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 C for 2011

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Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll explain my rankings for the Top-10 Catchers for 2011.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Top-10 1B for 2011.

My Top-10

Joe Mauer – The best hitting catcher in the game, period. Mauer hit .327 with 75 RBI and 88 runs scored, not to mention a .402 OBP, in 2010. Not worth the top-15 overall selection he was taken as last season, Mauer hit just nine homers, and if we remove his anomalous 28 homers season of 2009 we find that Mauer has averaged 9.4 homers in his other five seasons (I’m not counting his six homer effort in 107 at-bats in his first season).

Victor Martinez – The last six seasons that he has accrued at least 450 at-bats he has never failed to hit at least 16 homers or to produce at least 79 RBI. Toss in that he owns a career .300 batting average and you have yourself the second best fantasy catcher in baseball.

Brian McCann – Since 2006 McCann has hit at least 18 homers with 77 RBI each season. Moreover, since 2006, McCann leads the position in homers (107), extra base hits (283) and RBI (443). A rock solid option.

Buster Posey – If you watched the Giants all year, you’re sold on Posey. If you paid close attention in the playoffs, you should be sold as well. I worried about Posey’s ability to go deep heading into the year, but 18 homers in 406 at-bats would seem to waylay that fear. The young man can hit, and it’s not a stretch to think that he could match the production of V-Mart or McCann in 2011.

Geovany Soto – The Cubs’ catcher rebounded from a down 2009 to produce some solid totals. He nearly doubled Mauer with 17 homers, knocked in 53 runs, and hit a solid .280. Soto also was third at the position in OBP (.393) while he actually led catchers with a .890 OPS (Mauer was second at .871).

Carlos Santana – His season ended when he needed knee surgery, but he should be 100 percent by opening day. If he maintained his pace from last season and had 450 at-bats in 2011 he would hit .260 with 18 homers, 66 RBI and 69 runs scored. Given that his OBP was .401 last year, you have to think that his batting average could easily climb.

Kurt Suzuki – He didn’t match his breakout 2009 effort (.274-15-88-74) hitting .242-13-71-55, but he played more than 130-games for a third straight year and was still pretty darn effective for a catcher. He’s not an elite option, but he should still, easily, be a top-10 selection.

Matt Wieters – From the penthouse to the outhouse. After hitting .288 with nine homers in 354 at-bats as a rookie, Wieters slumped to .249 with 11 homers in 446 at-bats leading everyone to bail from the bandwagon as quick as they can. I’m not – I’m holding on for dear life. Wieters walked more frequently in year two while striking out less boosting his BB/K from 0.33 to 0.50. I like that. I also think his 15.4 line drive rate should improve in 2011, and with it his .287 BABIP, allowing that average to climb as well. Buy low on this guy.

Miguel Montero – Montero was a fantasy star in 2009 (.294-16-59-61) who failed to match his production in 2010 (.266-9-43-36). However, he had to come back from knee surgery and received 128 fewer at-bats, so his production actually wasn’t substantially different. At the same time he has only one season with more than 300 at-bats, one season of an average of .270 and just one season with more than 36 runs scored. I’d like to see another strong effort from him in 2011, but he is clearly still a top-10 option.

Mike Napoli – I’d rank him higher if I knew he would get the at-bats that he deserved. However, I just feel like that won’t ever happen unless he leaves the Angels. Napoli owns a strong .831 OPS in his career, and he has gone deep at least 20-times each of the past three years despite averaging a mere 353 at-bats a season. He may only have a .251 career average, but he has hit in the .270′s two of the past three years.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 28, 2010

(1) Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman likely done for the year. You can read more about those tow in MLB Player Rater.

(2) Justin Upton likely done with shoulder issue.

(3) Joe Mauer still out (knee). Likely back on Thursday.

(4) Josh Hamilton still out but he hit on Tuesday.

(5) Miguel Cabrera out with ankle issue.

(6) Daniel Hudson done for the year.

(7) Jimmy Rollins returns for Phillies.

(8) Giants juggle rotation to set up Tim Lincecum.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

Tulowitzki-Troy

Three’s are nice. There is the Holy Trinity, the outs in a half inning, or the fact that three is a pleasing number for the eye to see in a painting. Building on that theme, I will break down three of the best hitters in baseball in what follows.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on fire, an if you weren’t aware of that you must be wearing your football jersey around each day paying no attention to the diamond. Tulo is hitting .351 over his lst 43 games, and over his last 48 games he has a 1.108 OPS. Those numbers are massive (duh). He also has 14 homers and 34 RBI, not to mention 24 runs scored in 18 September games. On the year he is up to .325-26-89-83-10, a fantastic top-20 effort that you can read about in this week’s MLB Player Rater piece. If he were to keep that level of production up over 550 at-bats – he had 543 last season but has just 422 this season – his effort would lead to a .325-34-116-108-13 season. Do you know how many shorstops seasons have ever been produced of .320-30-115-105-10? Try two. Once by Nomar Garciaparra (.323-35-122-111-12 in 1998) and once by Alex Rodriguez (.358-36-123-141-15 in 1996). Yes, Tulo has been balling.

Jack Bauer, I mean Joe Mauer (sorry my love of 24 shone through there), is currently on the shelf with a sore left knee. An MRI showed that there was only inflammation going on with his wheel, but he still might miss a few days. On the year he is hitting a superb .331. If he keeps his average up over .325 he will have his fourth season of .325+ (minimum 502 plate appearances), and that would tie Mickey Cochrane‘s all-time record for backstops. Mauer’s .408 career OBP is also second all-time (minimum 3,000 plate appearances), for a catcher behind Cochrane’s .419 mark. As for Mauer’s power, its been MIA just like I said it would about a million times this year (you can read about it in my MLB Predictions – Hitters piece). I said Mauer would never hit 30 homers, and in fact, “…it strains credulity to think that Mauer will once again be able to double his previously established level.” Mauer has nine homers, which if you remove his 28 homer outburst last season, would fit in quite nicely with his other seasons of six, nine, thirteen, seven and nine.

Joey Votto was scratched from the Reds lineup on Tuesday because of a sinus infection (he’s day-to-day like the rest of us). He is third in the NL in average (.323), third in homers (35), second in RBI (106), first in OBP (.423), second in SLG (.597) and first in OPS (1.020) in the NL.Toss in 100 runs and 15 steals, and Votto has been an absolute fantasy revalation. He has also been a beast in terms of his consistency with virutally identical production in each of the seasons two parts.

Pre All-Star break: .314/.422/.589
Post All-Star break: .336/.424/.608

He may or may not win the NL MVP award, but if he doesn’t finishin the top-3 you can conisder the election of the winner a total farce.

By Ray Flowers

A Successful Return

vegas-paris

Yes, I made it home. If you are wondering why that is a slight shock, make sure you give my last blog posting a read where I lay out what the just completed weekend had in store for this kid (you can find that entry at Las Vegas Vacation). I don’t normally write about football here – pretty obvious when the title of my blog is BaseballGuys.com, but with less than a week to go before the NFL season counts, and with a wild weekend to recap, I’m going to push ahead with an entry about the gridiron.

Here are some of the highlights of the proceedings in Vegas as Fanball hosted the National Fantasy Football Championship.

* Some of the ADP numbers – Average Draft Position – certainly didn’t seem to play themselves out at the NFFC.

Jay Cutler was getting no love as he even fell out of the top-10 at the quarterback position at times.

Kevin Kolb who soared up to #7 at the QB spot has seen his ADP dip back to #10. He was being taken by some inside the top-10, but there may have been as many times when he was on the outside looking in at the top-10 at the position.

Maurice Jones-Drew has everyone panicked with that knee injury of his. The clear cut #3 option overall according to almost everyone worth a darn, he was falling to 4-5-6 and he even fell to #7 in one draft I witnessed. If he falls to you at #7 thank your lucky stars as you’ll likely get a tremendous value (kind of like last season when Joe Mauer was falling into the 7th to 9th round because people were worried about the back injury that was likely to sideline him for the month of April. We all know how fantabulistic that turned out for those that took a chance on the Twins’ catcher. What, you thought I would write a whole piece without mentioning baseball? You know me better than that by now don’t you?).

* Ryan Grant continues to get no love. I guess people see him and think ‘little’ upside, though in his defense, he is one of only four running backs to have rushed for at least 1,200-yards in each of the past two seasons. The others are Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson.

* The Bellagio hosts a hell of an event. Plus, I swear on my mother’s life, I think there are only hot women with four inch heels and tight miniskirts allowed within the city limits of Las Vegas. There’s some astounding scenery in that town.

* Everyone is on the bandwagon with the 49ers defense.

* Speaking of that bandwagon, Arian Foster‘s can barely hold another soul. The guy is simply zooming up draft boards at an astounding rate for a guy who, four months ago, was barely on anyone’s radar.

* How in the world did I have to pay $13 for a White Russian? And no, I’m not talking about one of those hotties in a mini-skirt, I mean the drink. Don’t worry, I got back at them though with my $17 dollar Eiffel Tower drink from Paris. That’s my 15.6 laptop in the picture for scale, and despite what looks like a pink hue, the color was a manly white.

Vegas-EffielTower-c

* People still seem to love taking quarterback’s early. I touched on why I think that isn’t necessarily the best plan of action in NFL Mailbag – The QB Conundrum.

So there it is.

I’m back at home in sunny California, I didn’t lose a kidney or get arrested, and I remember the entire trip (no blackouts). All in all, that sounds like a pretty good weekend doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers