AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

 

 

 

 

Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers