Fantasy Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype, there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one. Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one (not to mention that he has flat out killed it at the dish this spring, even if he’s dealing with a back issue). Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

By Ray Flowers

Are Your Expectations Reasonable?

Today I’m going to break down a handful of players an attempt to refute the prevailing wisdom about at least one aspect of their game. Hopefully the piece will be a thought provoking one, even if you disagree with my conclusions.

Robinson Cano‘s Power
Cano hit 33 homers last season, the first time he reached 30 in his career. The assumption is that Cano is now a 30 homer hitter. It’s obvious, right? He hit 30 homers last year. He plays in New York were the stadium had a Park Indices mark of 146 last year for left-handed home run hitters (46 percent above the AL average). He’s Robinson Cano. Despite all that, he’s not a 30 homer hitter. Besides the obvious fact that he’s gone deep 30 times just once in eight seasons there are a couple of salient points. (1) Cano’s 1.89 GB/FB ratio last season was a career-high (his career mark is 1.55). (2) Cano hit fewer fly balls last season than ever before at 25.8 percent. A career-high in homers despite a career-low fly ball number – is there something rotten in Denmark (a quote from Shakespeare’s Hamlet. How dare he speak of my homeland in such a way)? (3) Cano’s HR/F ratio last season was a career best 24.1 percent, a massive step up from his career 13.7 percent rate. It was also the first time he posted a mark above 17.0 percent. Unless Cano hits a lot more fly balls this season he isn’t going deep 30 times again (if he does hit more fly balls, it could end up costing him in the batting average category).

Chase Headley‘s Power
I explained all about Headley’s like power outage this season in his Player Profile.

Torii Hunter‘s Batting Average
Hunter hit .313 last season, a career best. There’s no chance he repeats it. For more, check out his Player Profile.

Can anyone save SMASH?

Matt Kemp is Injury Prone
I’ve been hearing this a lot on The Drive, my radio show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Monday through Friday, 5-8 PM EDT). I just can’t understand why people think this. In 2010-11 Kemp missed one game. One. From 2008 through 2011 he appeared in at least 155 games each season. Kemp’s total of 637 games played those four years were the 6th most in baseball and just seven behind Prince Fielder‘s leading total of 644 games. So Kemp has a couple of ailments limit him to 106 games last season and all of a sudden the 28 year old is a big time injury risk? Don’t consider me part of that camp.

Giancarlo Stanton is Worth a First Round Draft Pick
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Stanton posts the following numbers this season: .292-39-122-103-2. I’m not saying he gets there, those are huge numbers and likely unattainable (at least the average and runs scored marks), but let’s just say he does. If he does that, gets those numbers, he’ll earn about $28 or so dollars this season. That’s just not first round value folks.

Joey Votto‘s Power
I got in a Twitter discussion the past 12 hours about Votto vs. Cano, and one point that was mentioned was that Votto’s power was in decline so his value was waning. Really? The facts. (1) Votto owns a .553 career SLG. The mark was .567 last year. He had a better than career average SLG last season folks. (2) Votto had a 1.18 GB/FB ratio last year. His career mark is 1.19. (3) Votto did post a four year low fly ball rate of 32 percent, but that was just slightly off his 34.4 percent career mark. (4) Votto did hit only 14 homers in 374 at-bats last season. However, that knee injury of his crippled his ability to drive the baseball late in the year. In fact, he didn’t hit a single homer over his 87 at-bats in the second half of the season. Let’s remove those 87 at-bats for a moment. When he was healthy, the first 83 games, he went deep 14 times, hitting one long ball every 20.5 at-bats. For his career, that mark is one homer per 19.5 at-bats. Status quo here folks.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. More than 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – First Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE Top-10

1  Miguel Cabrera
2  Albert Pujols
3  Joey Votto
4  Prince Fielder
5  Adrian Gonzalez
6  Mark Teixeira
7  Paul Konerko
8  Eric Hosmer
9  Gaby Sanchez
10  Lance Berkman

* David Ortiz and Billy Butler were listed at DH.

Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown hitting .330-44-139. The homers and RBIs were career bests, and this was his 7th season he’s hit at least .320. The just completed season was also a third straight year of 109 or more runs scored and his 9th straight triple-digit RBI season – every full season of his career.

Pujols started out horrifically and it marred his final numbers though he still hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This just might be the player he is now. Even so, he’s still one heck of a hitter.

Votto didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but did you know that Votto had a better batting average (.337 to .330), OBP (.474 to .393) and OPS (1.041 to .999) than Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera?

Fielder was everything the Tigers hoped he would be in his first season in Motown. He hit a career best .313, had a 4th straight .400 OBP effort, hit 30 homers for the 6th straight year and drove in 108 runs.

Gonzalez had only 18 homers and 75 runs scored, but he still hit .299 and drove in 108 runs. Expectations are the bane of his existence right now. Not mine, I know what A-Gone is, but everyone else’s who seems to think he is a top-15 fantasy overall option. He just isn’t and never was.

Teixeira had gone deep 30 times with 100 RBIs every year from 2004-11. That streak ended as he was held to 24-84 in ’12. However, injuries limited him to just 123 games. If he had appeared in 150 games, a total he reached each year from 2008-11, his prorated effort would have led to 29 homers and 102 RBIs meaning he was still right on pace in the counting categories.

Konerko’s slash line was once again impressive at .298/.371/.486, right in line with his career numbers (.283/.359/.499). However, he failed to hit 30 homers for the first time in three years (26), and his RBI total of 75 was the worst number he had ever posted in a season of 500 at-bats.

Hosmer was a brutal disappointment. He still led AL first sackers in steals (16) and he was just one homer from a 15/15 season. Actually, that’s not awful for a second year player is it? Keep an eye on him in 2013.

Everyone in the world missed on Hosmer who’s outward appearance tanked in his second season, but my call on Sanchez was the worst one I made in over 500 ranked players (I don’t really blame players for being hurt, so it’s hard to find as much fault with the equally pathetic Berkman). After back-to-back seasons of at least 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored he was limited to 299 pathetic at-bats hitting .217 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

Berkman appeared in just 32 games in his worst season, perhaps the last in his career. Even with all the injuries of late, the last time Berkman appeared in less than 120 games in a season was the 2000 season.

Hit: Paul Goldschmidt (#17)
One of those I suggested targeting outside the top-10 was Goldy. The NL’s HR/SB option at first, Goldschmidt socked 20 homers and stole 18 bases. Unlike Hosmer who hit .232, Goldschmidt posted a .286 batting average in an impressive first full season.

Miss: Gaby Sanchez

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August29, 2012

(1) Jose Bautista (wrist) done for the year.

(2) Matt Kemp escapes serious injury.

(3) Todd Frazier will not lose playing time when Joey Votto returns.

(4) Wade Miley starring for D’backs. Should you be wary?

(5) Wilin Rosario having special year.

(6) Greg Holland locking it down for Royals.

(7) Yovani Gallardo on patented hot streak.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July17, 2012

(1) Joey Votto out 3-4 weeks with knee injury.

(2) Jose Bautista (wrist) placed on DL. Further tests to be run.

(3) Jacoby Ellbury/Carl Crawford return to 1-2 spot for Red Sox.

(4) John Axford to loose closing job?

(5) Dan Haren (back) to return this weekend.

(6) Jeff Francis looking pretty sharp for Rockies.

(7) Brett Wallace close to call-up for Astros.

(8) Phenom Matt Harvey close to starting for Mets?

(9) Justin Upton on trade block – why?

Mailbag: July5, 2012

Each week I’ll be  answer some of the questions I’ve received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Pablo Sandoval and Desmond Jennings for Joey Votto? Have Brett Lawrie at 3B so Panda sits on my bench or in utility spot.
– @Youksbeard

All of this hullabaloo over Sandoval being named the starter over David Wright for the All-Star Game has obscured the fact that Sandoval is performing very well. Yes he’s only been on the field for 47 games, but if we push things out to 150, at his current pace, we’d be looking at a guy hitting .313 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs (those numbers are nearly identical to his career marks per 162 games: .308-23-87). Those aren’t stupendous numbers, but they are pretty darn good, aren’t they? If you’re “stuck” with that as your utility option many will wish they could be you.

Jennings was a victim of his own hype. As I stated to everyone that would listen all offseason, Jennings wasn’t going to be a 25 homer hitter this season, and those who thought he was a 20/40 option were always going to be disappointed. He’s stolen 15 bags in 59 games including three in his last four games, so apparently his knee is finally healthy. However he’s hitting .231 as his walk rate has gone down from his rookie season leading to a below league average 0.40 BB/K mark. He’s also be smart to hit a few more balls on the ground to take advantage of his speed. The talent is still here for a huge second half, but there’s not a lot going on right now to suggest he’s going to realize that potential in the second half this season.

Votto — do I need to waste time/space saying he is elite? As long as his body holds up there is little reason to think that he won’t end the year the way he was drafted – as a top-10 overall performer.

You have Lawrie at third so you don’t have to have Pablo around, but as I mentioned, Pablo is still a great utility option. Jennings is a borderline elite talent, even if his production has been far from that level this year. Most people will tell you that getting the best player in the deal often means you win. In this case here is my answer – you’re never going to be wrong adding Votto to your club, but if you’re team is lacking depth holding on to Pablo and Desmond might still end up being the best move.

Anibal Sanchez dropable in 12 team roto? Dude has been killin me for over month.
– @lmfriedrich

On June 9th, less than a month ago, Sanchez had a 3.19 ERA. Now that mark stands exactly one run higher at 4.19. Obviously he’s had a brutal stretch (honestly it’s even worse as his ERA was 2.56 on June 4th). So what should be done with a guy who has a 7.34 ERA and 1.69 ERA over his last six starts? Do you drop him in a 12 team league? The answer comes down to who is available to add. If you’re in a league where people have itchy trigger fingers maybe there are guys like a returning to health Derek Holland or an improving Ubaldo Jimenez on the wire, an in that case you could consider moving on from Sanchez. Personally, I’m stubborn. If my pitching wasn’t a mess, if I could afford to give him some time, I’d bench Anibal and give him a few more starts to see if he can right the ship. What’s done is done, there’s no going back now. Still, we’re talking about a guy who some rather impressive numbers overall this season including a 8.20 K/9 mark, a 2.97 K/BB ratio and a 1.46 GB/FB rate. Chances are pretty good that if he holds on to all three of those numbers for the duration of the year that he’s going to have a good deal of success in the second half.

I don’t need a 2B but should I drop Carlos Quentin for Alexi Amarista? Quentin is tickin me off.
– @BigDaddyLowery

Amarista has been killing it the past two weeks hitting .424 with four homers and 15 RBIs (that includes all four homers, and 13 of those RBIs, in his last seven games). Point blank, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game. Still, let’s not go overboard here. Amarista is 5’8” and weighs about a buck-fifty. He’s no power hitter. Just look at his minor league totals by year.

2008: 2 HR, 21 RBI
2009: 4 HR, 49 RBI
2010: 5 HR, 68 RBI
2011: 4 HR, 55 RBI

He does have a .312 minor league average, and he owns some speed, but this is a guy at this point that profiles as an NL-only option, and not a mixed league force. If you don’t need a second baseman, he’s not someone you should be picking up to start in your utility spot (over at Fleaflicker people seem to agree).

Quentin was insanely hot when he returned from his knee issue hitting five homers with nine RBIs in his first six games. Everyone thought he was Babe Ruth. Over his last 14 games he has one homer and three RBIs. Now everyone thinks he is Willie Bloomquist. He is neither player of course, and this brings up the shortsightedness that so many people have in the fantasy game (Bloomquist by the way is hitting .333 over his last 78 at-bats). Quentin is hitting .289 this season which is .035 points better than his career mark. Quentin has a .430 OBP which is .080 points better than his career rate. Quentin has a .577 SLG which is .083 points better than his career rate. Taken in total, Quentin is working on a 29 game pace that would equate to 35 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.007 OPS over the course of a full season. Are you really going to complain about that? Of course you wouldn’t.

Baseball is a long season. If you don’t have the patience to wait out players slumps you’ll likely miss the good that they have to offer. So next time you think about dropping a guy who has had a rough three weeks for someone who’s name you didn’t even know two weeks ago because that unknown player has been hot take a deep breath, logically analyze the situation, and make sure you aren’t making a snap decision that will cost you later.

Yasmani Grandal or  J.P. Arencebia who I have held into him begrudgingly last two months in a 16 team points league?
– @lilnas2000

Grandal has burst on the scene swatting four homers in just 20 at-bats for the Padres. A borderline elite prospect at the catcher’s position, he’s already flashed the plus power he possesses. However, he’s yet to translate that pop into consistent power production in the minors, and Petco isn’t likely to do him any favors. Also, let’s not forget that the Padres still have Nick Hundley and his 3-year deal trying to find his swing in the minors, so it isn’t likely that he’s going to spend a tremendous amount of time down on the farm if he starts hitting.

As for JPA, what were you expecting? Just like the case with Quentin above, Arencebia has his strengths and his faults. Just like Quentin he has long stretches of ineffectiveness. Just like Quentin he’s a power bat and the results often come in bunches. Sure J.P. hit a mere .189 with eight RBIs in June, but let’s take that holistic approach again. JPA has 239 at-bats right now. If we give him 443, the same total as last season, what do we get?

2011: .219-23-78-47
2012: .222-20-70-54 (pace)

That’s right. He’s on pace to pretty much replicate his production from last season, so is being disappointed in his production really fair?

I’d stick with Arencebia, though if you are worried about the batting average, taking a shot on Grandal is fine as well since the duo profiles as similarly productive fantasy options the rest of the way.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

The Fantasy Beat: Who’s On First?

On this week’s edition of “The Fantasy Beat”, Justin and Trevor talk about 1st Basemen around the majors who have surprisingly started the 2012 season off well. They also talk about the slumping players at 1st.

Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder

Listen to the Audio.

Mailbag: April 3, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Head to head, 9th pick 12 team. Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder. Top 2 in order please?
– @Quinn8585

Here’s the dirty little secret of fantasy baseball – no one really knows the answer to this question. We all obsess over who to take in the first an second rounds as if the answer matters more than air. In truth, no one knows. I’ve been  referring to the study in the 2012 Baseball Forecaster by Baseball HQ to make my point (pp.42-43). According to HQ’s research, over the past eight years you have a 37.5 percent chance of drafting someone in the top-15 and at the end of the year finding them inside the top-15 in production. That means, and we’re talking eight years here, that you have roughly a one in three chance of “hitting” on your first round selection. On the flip side that means 2/3′s of the players drafted in the first round this year will not return first round value when the 2012 season is complete. Remember that next time your biting your fingernails trying to figure out who the best guy is to draft in the first round. If it was my team I’d take CarGo and Robinson Cano.

I was offered a trade, Joey Votto for Prince Fielder. Maybe I’m splitting hairs but I don’t see a big difference, do you?
– @AtlFan23

Well, if we are talking about a standard 5×5 fantasy league I think there is a difference, and it’s two-fold. First, Fielder has hit .282 for his career. In two of the past four years he’s failed to reach that mark, and he’s never hit .300 in a season (he fell one hit short last year finishing at .299). Votto has hit .313 for his career, has hit at least .309 each of the past three years, and in four full big league seasons he has never hit lower than .297. Votto is clearly the better play in batting average. The second area in which he takes a step over Fielder is in the steals category. Now I doubt Votto is going to steal 16 bases again as he did in 2010, but he did flash enough speed to swipe another eight bags last year giving him a two year average of 12 steals a season. Fielder has a mere 16 steals in his career including two the past two seasons. An eight steal different doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a huge fantasy boost in value for Votto. Also, one last point that tips things in the favor of Votto. Fielder has been the slightly better power bat with bigger homer totals, but this season he moves from a park in Milwaukee that was the second best homer park in the NL the past three years for lefties (according to Park Indices), for one in Detroit that was only 10th best in the AL for lefties. It’s quite possible that the homer gap between the two disappears this season.

I was offered Kendrys Morales for Michael Young straight up – would you accept that offer?
– @Jpetermon

Hype always amazes me. Every year we see rookies and youngsters driven up to the point that they are being drafted as if they were five time all-star’s (hello Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore). We also get players who excel in spring training being drafted way too early (I’m thinking Lorenzo Cain might fit into this category this year). A player that certainly fits into this second group is Morales. I know he has gone 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers but where is this hysteria coming from? How many at-bats did Morales have last year? Zero. How many at-bats has Morales had since the All-Star break in 2010? Zero? In fact, over the past twenty two months Morales has zero big league at-bats (he last appeared in a game on May 29th, 2010). Not just that, we’re talking about 26 spring training at-bats as well, that’s the definition of small sample size. Sure he’s looked great at this dish this spring, and he was a 34 homers, 108 RBI bat who hit .306 in 2009, but Carlos Lee hit .300 with 26 homers and 102 RBI in 2009 (not exactly a great comparison I know, but hopefully you get my point). Morales might return to being a top-10 first basemen this season but there is no way I’d take him in a deal straight up for Michael Young, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. No thanks.

Jonathan Broxton and uncertainty in Kansas City, or Mark Melancon and uncertainty in Boston?
– @mrlcpbra

I have probably, and I’m not exaggerating for effect here, received 150 questions about the Red Sox and Royals bullpen situations over the past 10 days. Hell, that number may be well over 250 to be truthful. Here’s a form of what I’ve said to everyone who has asked; when the team doesn’t even know who they are going to turn to in the 9th inning, how in the world am I supposed to know what the “right” answer is? The answer to this question basically comes down to your philosophy on relievers. Some bullet points to consider.

* I can’t read a manager’s mind. I have no idea how he will handle the 9th inning call. Will he choose to go with experience, guile, stuff, match ups?

* Teams don’t always go with their best pitcher in the 9th inning, and that makes answering this issue, from a fantasy baseball perspective, maddening. Think of the Nationals. Their best reliever is Tyler Clippard, so he should be the first choice to fill in for the injured Drew Storen. However, the team thinks that Clippard is far too important in his setup role to handle the ninth inning so it looks like the save chances will be given to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez who are inferior pitchers to Clippard.

* If closer number one is out of commission, how long a leash will the “backup” closer have? If he blows two saves will the manager flip to option three?

* Given all of that, I target skills not role. That’s my choice. In the end I think that skills win out. Teams tire quickly – unless you’re Kevin Gregg – of seeing their closers struggle to close out games in the 9th. Eventually the most skilled players should, notice I say should, gravitate to the 9th inning (it’s why I have recommended Kenley Jansen over Javy Guerra even though Guerra is set up to be the closer to start the year for the Dodgers). Eventually if you go with the skills you will be rewarded. However, let me be clear, that does not mean you will always make the “right” fantasy choice. The fact of the matter is that you need saves, and if Javy Guerra gives you 29 saves with a 4.43 ERA he’s still going to provide more fantasy value than Jansen and his six saves and 2.13 ERA. That’s just the breaks in the standard 5×5 fantasy game.

Given all of that, I’d go with Greg Holland and Mark Melancon if I was deciding on who to add from the Royals and Red Sox bullpens.

Thirteen team 7×7 roto. Closer neglect left me with just Andrew Bailey. Free agent list dry. OK to punt? Can it be done?
– @FearNLoathinNyc

I don’t ever recommend to someone that they punt a category, but you can do it an win (it stands an even better chance of being successful in a head-to-head league than a roto league). For a breakdown of this strategy see Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.