Mailbag: April 3, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Head to head, 9th pick 12 team. Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder. Top 2 in order please?
– @Quinn8585

Here’s the dirty little secret of fantasy baseball – no one really knows the answer to this question. We all obsess over who to take in the first an second rounds as if the answer matters more than air. In truth, no one knows. I’ve been  referring to the study in the 2012 Baseball Forecaster by Baseball HQ to make my point (pp.42-43). According to HQ’s research, over the past eight years you have a 37.5 percent chance of drafting someone in the top-15 and at the end of the year finding them inside the top-15 in production. That means, and we’re talking eight years here, that you have roughly a one in three chance of “hitting” on your first round selection. On the flip side that means 2/3′s of the players drafted in the first round this year will not return first round value when the 2012 season is complete. Remember that next time your biting your fingernails trying to figure out who the best guy is to draft in the first round. If it was my team I’d take CarGo and Robinson Cano.

I was offered a trade, Joey Votto for Prince Fielder. Maybe I’m splitting hairs but I don’t see a big difference, do you?
– @AtlFan23

Well, if we are talking about a standard 5×5 fantasy league I think there is a difference, and it’s two-fold. First, Fielder has hit .282 for his career. In two of the past four years he’s failed to reach that mark, and he’s never hit .300 in a season (he fell one hit short last year finishing at .299). Votto has hit .313 for his career, has hit at least .309 each of the past three years, and in four full big league seasons he has never hit lower than .297. Votto is clearly the better play in batting average. The second area in which he takes a step over Fielder is in the steals category. Now I doubt Votto is going to steal 16 bases again as he did in 2010, but he did flash enough speed to swipe another eight bags last year giving him a two year average of 12 steals a season. Fielder has a mere 16 steals in his career including two the past two seasons. An eight steal different doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a huge fantasy boost in value for Votto. Also, one last point that tips things in the favor of Votto. Fielder has been the slightly better power bat with bigger homer totals, but this season he moves from a park in Milwaukee that was the second best homer park in the NL the past three years for lefties (according to Park Indices), for one in Detroit that was only 10th best in the AL for lefties. It’s quite possible that the homer gap between the two disappears this season.

I was offered Kendrys Morales for Michael Young straight up – would you accept that offer?
– @Jpetermon

Hype always amazes me. Every year we see rookies and youngsters driven up to the point that they are being drafted as if they were five time all-star’s (hello Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore). We also get players who excel in spring training being drafted way too early (I’m thinking Lorenzo Cain might fit into this category this year). A player that certainly fits into this second group is Morales. I know he has gone 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers but where is this hysteria coming from? How many at-bats did Morales have last year? Zero. How many at-bats has Morales had since the All-Star break in 2010? Zero? In fact, over the past twenty two months Morales has zero big league at-bats (he last appeared in a game on May 29th, 2010). Not just that, we’re talking about 26 spring training at-bats as well, that’s the definition of small sample size. Sure he’s looked great at this dish this spring, and he was a 34 homers, 108 RBI bat who hit .306 in 2009, but Carlos Lee hit .300 with 26 homers and 102 RBI in 2009 (not exactly a great comparison I know, but hopefully you get my point). Morales might return to being a top-10 first basemen this season but there is no way I’d take him in a deal straight up for Michael Young, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. No thanks.

Jonathan Broxton and uncertainty in Kansas City, or Mark Melancon and uncertainty in Boston?
– @mrlcpbra

I have probably, and I’m not exaggerating for effect here, received 150 questions about the Red Sox and Royals bullpen situations over the past 10 days. Hell, that number may be well over 250 to be truthful. Here’s a form of what I’ve said to everyone who has asked; when the team doesn’t even know who they are going to turn to in the 9th inning, how in the world am I supposed to know what the “right” answer is? The answer to this question basically comes down to your philosophy on relievers. Some bullet points to consider.

* I can’t read a manager’s mind. I have no idea how he will handle the 9th inning call. Will he choose to go with experience, guile, stuff, match ups?

* Teams don’t always go with their best pitcher in the 9th inning, and that makes answering this issue, from a fantasy baseball perspective, maddening. Think of the Nationals. Their best reliever is Tyler Clippard, so he should be the first choice to fill in for the injured Drew Storen. However, the team thinks that Clippard is far too important in his setup role to handle the ninth inning so it looks like the save chances will be given to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez who are inferior pitchers to Clippard.

* If closer number one is out of commission, how long a leash will the “backup” closer have? If he blows two saves will the manager flip to option three?

* Given all of that, I target skills not role. That’s my choice. In the end I think that skills win out. Teams tire quickly – unless you’re Kevin Gregg – of seeing their closers struggle to close out games in the 9th. Eventually the most skilled players should, notice I say should, gravitate to the 9th inning (it’s why I have recommended Kenley Jansen over Javy Guerra even though Guerra is set up to be the closer to start the year for the Dodgers). Eventually if you go with the skills you will be rewarded. However, let me be clear, that does not mean you will always make the “right” fantasy choice. The fact of the matter is that you need saves, and if Javy Guerra gives you 29 saves with a 4.43 ERA he’s still going to provide more fantasy value than Jansen and his six saves and 2.13 ERA. That’s just the breaks in the standard 5×5 fantasy game.

Given all of that, I’d go with Greg Holland and Mark Melancon if I was deciding on who to add from the Royals and Red Sox bullpens.

Thirteen team 7×7 roto. Closer neglect left me with just Andrew Bailey. Free agent list dry. OK to punt? Can it be done?
– @FearNLoathinNyc

I don’t ever recommend to someone that they punt a category, but you can do it an win (it stands an even better chance of being successful in a head-to-head league than a roto league). For a breakdown of this strategy see Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Reds Deal to Add Latos

It’s been a few days since the Reds and Padres swung a huge deal, and with the dust settled I thought it would be a good time to investigate both sides and see if there was a winner and loser,

Padres Receive: Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger

Reds receive: Mat Latos

Reds Haul – The Reds got the most productive player in the deal in Latos. A legitimate rising star, Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 Ks as a 22 year old in 2010. Last year the record was reversed, he went 9-14, while his ERA (3.47), and WHIP (1.18) went up. He also struck out four fewer batters in 9.2 more innings, but that’s a wash.

For the past two years Latos has been one of the better right-handed pitchers in the NL. He’s also very young which means he’s a nice addition for a team in Cincinnati that needs cost certainty with their players. As for what to expect from Latos, there are some issues to keep an eye on. With only two seasons of data to rely on I’m admittedly guessing a bit here, but I don’t like to see his K/9 rate and ground ball rate go down while his BB/9 rate and line drive rate went up in his second full season. I also don’t like the fact that he’s leaving one of the best pitchers park’s in baseball for a yard that clearly favors the hitter. This is especially concerning given that his 1.03 GB/FB rate for his career is league average. Since Great America ballpark is the most homer happy park in the NL according to Park Indices, he might have a hard time keep that ERA in the low 3′s.

Padres Haul – Where to begin.

Volquez is a mess. Oh he owns a solid arm he did go 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA  and 206 Ks in 2008, but the last few years he has struggled to throw strikes (the last three years his BB/9 mark has been above 5.00). Until he does a better job of location his pitches, it’s going to be very difficult to count on him as anything more than a 5th starter. Still, he moves to Petco which should rectify his homer woes, and when you factor in that he has posted an impressive 1.75 GB/FB ratio over his last 171.1 innings, you can see there is a chance that he could post some top-shelf pitching totals with half the Padres games at Petco.

Alonso hit .330 with a .943 OPS in 88 at-bats last season and he projects as a solid bat at first base (he’s been tried as on outfielder, but he really doesn’t have the athleticism for it). Alonso has also hit .296 with a .842 OPS in 192 games at Triple-A seemingly proving that his time is now. The addition by the Padres is a bit odd though given that they already have Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future. Maybe they work out a way for the duo to play together – possibly Alonso in that outfield role – but the winds are suggesting that the Pads might deal Rizzo this offseason.

Grandal is a switch hitter who is close to being ready for the bigs (his addition likely ends the future with the Padres for Nick Hundley). Grandal hit .303 with 14 homers, 69 RBI and a .401 OBP as he flew through three minor league levels last season. His time will come, likely in 2013.

Boxberger is the least exciting name in the group, though it’s not like he doesn’t have a big arm. After all, he’s struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings in his 153.2 innings as a big league hurler. He worked as a starter in 2010, but last year he was moved to the bullpen.

Winner – Come on now, it’s not even close. I have no idea what the Reds were doing in this deal. They dealt away Volquez, who already has a season on his record that is equivalent to what Latos has posted the last two years. They dealt away Alonso, a bat that many predict could hit .300 with 20 homers year after year. They dealt away a catching prospect in Grandal who was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. We’ve heard the Reds say, ‘but we have Joey Votto at first base and Devin Mesoraco is an even better option at catcher than Grandal,’ but even so, you don’t just give up talent because you have depth. Maybe this deal will result in the Reds winning their division in 2012, but moving forward this has the ring of the type of deal that the Giants made years ago when they sent Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – First Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

CATCHERS

2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko

Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.

Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.

Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected.   Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.

Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.

Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.

Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.

Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.

Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.

Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.

Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.

By Ray Flowers

Braun: Best of the Bunch

On March 16th, I know most of you can’t remember as far back as September 16th, but trust me on March 16th I wrote a piece that I titled Who is #3? At the time there was a pretty general consensus that Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez were the top-2 options in the fantasy game. Proving yet again that this is far from an exact science, Pujols had a solid but unspectacular season for him (.299-37-99-105-9), whereas Ramirez struggled mightily before finally succumbing to shoulder surgery (.243-10-45-55-20 in 92 games).

Since there was no consensus as to who should have been drafted #3 overall I went through a bunch of names up for consideration at that spot in the above linked piece before I settled on Ryan Braun. Before I get to Braun and what was obviously a spectacular call by me (I’m so modest), let me list the reasons why I was concerned with the other options, and then give the figures to back up what I thought.

“Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.”
Looks like the boozing just isn’t an issue after all. He hit a robust .344, and though he hit 30 homers with 105 RBI the homer total was a five year low while his RBI total was the worst he’s ever had in eight full seasons.

Troy Tulowitzki: “…I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years .“
He played more games than I thought he might, 143, but injuries limited him to three year lows in runs scored (81), steals (nine), OBP (.372) and SLG (.544). He still had a great year though.

Carlos Gonzalez: “…hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.”
He was even worse in 2011 on the road hitting .252 with a .757 OPS. He still had a great year considering he played in 127 games (.295-26-92-92-20), but everything predictably regressed.

Evan Longoria: “ I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think.”
50/50 here. Third base was even more shallow than we thought as everyone was injured at one point or another. With a late season power surge he finished the year with 31 homers and 99 RBI to place himself amongst the best at the position, but he also hit a career worst .244 and stole a career low three bags.

“What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.”
Both players had great efforts, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it, but neither rose to the level of being the #3 selection.

Votto: .309-29-103-101-8 with a .947 OPS
Cano: .302-28-118-104-8 with a .882 OPS

“Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me. “
Halladay was typically grand, but he may not have even been the best pitcher on his own team (Cliff Lee posted virtually identical numbers).

All of that leads to Ryan Braun. Here are the points I made with Braun (you can get more detail from the initial piece).

(1) Consistency/Across the board production.
For the 5th straight year he hit better than .285 with more than 25 homers, 97 RBI,  91 runs and 14 steals. He produced a 5×5 line of .332-33-111-109-33 in what was his best season of a stupendous career.

(2) Health.
The previous three seasons Braun had appeared in 151 or more games. He missed out in 2011, but I’ll take the 150 total he played in every year.

(3) Upside.
I mentioned in the previous piece that if you took the career bests for Braun in the main five fantasy categories you’d end up with a season of .324-37-114-113-20. How did he do in 2011? He bettered the average at .332. He fell just short in the homer, RBI and runs scored categories with 33, 111 and 109. Still, that’s pretty damn close ain’t it? The kicker is that he went for 33 steals, just one less than he posted in 2009 and 2010.

Braun wasn’t just the best choice as the #3 selection this year, he actually ended the year as the second best fantasy performer behind only Matt Kemp (.324-39-126-115-40). And you wanted to drafted Troy Tulowitzki…

By Ray Flowers

Who is #3?

Photo by Benjamin Kabek

There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.

Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.

Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.

Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.

Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).

What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.

I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken  4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).

THE CASE FOR BRAUN

(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.

That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.

(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…

Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.

(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.

(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).

You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez

I get it. A big bat gets paid bazillions of dollars, leaves the worst hitting park in baseball, and that transforms the player into a dynamic offensive weapon. I certainly buy that to a point with Adrian Gonzalez, but it seems like most of my fantasy brethren have been hitting the hookah pipe a bit too frequently when it comes to estimating Gonzalez’s fantasy value in 2011.

Over at Fanball in a well written article by Greg Ambrosius entitled NFBC: The Rise of A-Gone, Gregg points out how voters are loving them some Adrian Gonzalez because of the move out of Petco and to Fenway Park. Greg gives the data simply: before the Trade Gonzalez went 27th or 29th in the 15 team mixed league drafts for the NFBC. After the trade to Boston that number jumped to 20, 18, 16, 14 and 11.

Does that meteoric rise make any sense? Greg does a great job in the piece laying out the statistical reasons that seem to be behind the rise in Adrian’s ADP numbers. Greg also points out a rather interesting number that some may not be aware of – in each of the past four seasons Gonzalez has gone deep at least 20 times on the road (he never hit more than 14 at home). Does this mean he is a lock for 40 homers? I think “lock” is too strong a term for a guy who has hit 40 homers only once in his career. Why? I think it will surprise many people to learn that Fenway wasn’t exactly a homer heaven for left-handed batters last season. Seriously. Here are the Park Indices number for left-handed hitting batters, in the homer category, for 2011 for Petco and Fenway (100 is neutral, under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors hitters).

Petco: 64, 16th in the NL
Fenway: 86, 9th in the AL

The truth of the matter is that Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all with a mark of 88 the past three years, 12th in the American League. Shocked aren’t you?

Beyond that, there are two major issues that concern me.

First of all, Gonzalez had shoulder surgery and while everyone believes he will be at or near 100 percent this season it’s quite possible that he will not be allowed to swing a bat until March. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on a guy who will only have a month of hacks under his belt before games count?

Second, what about the wealth of talent at first base in 2011? If you look at the Fanball Staff Rankings you will notice that I’m the lowest of the ranking members in terms of my placement of Gonzalez as I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix even with some of his struggles last season since he still had 32 bombs and posted a .401 OBP (Gonzalez was at 31 and .393 by the way). Kevin Youkilis is also coming back from surgery but I might be convinced to move him behind the Red Sox new first baseman. Finally, the move of Adam Dunn to the White Sox would appear to give him a legit shot at 45 homers if not more. After all, U.S. Cellular Field in Chitown is first in Park Indices for homers the past three years, and fourth for left-handed batters.

Add all of that up and I’m gonna let someone else take Gonzalez with the 16th pick. I’ll happily wait 20 selections to roster Adam Dunn.

And finally, in the I told you so file…

Edgar Renteria was disrespected, or whatever he said, when the Giants offered him a 1-year deal for $1 million. Guess he had a right to feel that way. It looks like he got a deal from the Reds for $3 million. I don’t know if that makes him seem smart, or if that means the Reds are just lost?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Votto A Runaway Winner?

Every time I pat the voters on the back, like I did for their AL Cy Young selection of Felix Hernandez, they turn around and do something a bit odd. In a piece entitled Who is the NL MVP?, I made a case for a narrow, and I mean razor thin, victory for Joey Votto over Albert Pujols. The Baseball Writers Association of America got it right in giving the award to Votto, so what am I scratching my head over? The results. Here they are:

Joey Votto: 31 1st place votes, one 2nd, for 443 points
Albert Pujols: one first, 21 2nd, eight 3rd, one 4th, one sixth, for 279 points
Carlos Gonzalez: 0-7-13-5-4-2-1, for 240 points.

Votto and Pujols were the only two players listed on every ballot. I have no idea in the world how CarGo wasn’t deemed at least the 10th best player by one voter who should have their credentials revoked, but I’m even more aghast at the fact that Votto was a near unanimous selection. Again, I’m not saying that Votto didn’t deserve the award, but 31 of 32 first place votes? After all, Pujols did lead the NL in RBI (118) and runs (115), it’s not like he as crushed in a myriad of other categories by Votto.

Pujols: .312/.414/.596, 42 HRs, 14 SBs, 39 doubles, 103 BB, 76 Ks
Votto: .324/.424/.600, 37 HRs, 16 SBs, 36 doubles, 91 BB, 125 Ks

There is simply no way that I can fathom this situation ending up with Votto being a near unanimous selection.

Let the bashing of me begin since I’m sure I will get a host of emails saying ‘but Votto’s Reds made the playoffs’ to which I will reply – so flipping what? This isn’t tennis folks. Baseball is a team game, and no matter how great a player is, no one person can win anything by his lonesome. This is about as tired an argument as I ever come across, and year after year you hear countless people espousing this nonsense. As near as I can figure it, this very line of reasoning must have been why Adrian Gonzalez received 197 points while Ryan Braun picked up only 19. After all, the Padres just missed the playoffs and the Brewers were well under .500 at 77-85. I would be much more willing to accept a line of argument along the lines of (a) Gonzalez plays in atrocious park for hitters and (b) he had all of that success with hardly any support in the lineup. Still, results are results, and I just don’t see how Gonzalez demolished Braun in the vote given their production.

Gonzalez: .298-31-101-87 with a .393 OBP, .511 SLG
R. Braun: .304-25-103-101-14 with a .366 OBP, .501 SLG

Speaking of Braun, I had him fourth on my ballot. It’s possible that I took too much of a “fantasy centered” approach in selection Braun for his 5×5 talents, but there is NO FLIPPING WAY that he should have finished behind Jayson Werth (52 points), Martin Prado (51 points) and Ryan Howard (50 points). I love Buster Posey (40 points), but he also shouldn’t have been ahead of Braun either. I don’t what is more shocking – Scott Rolen (26 points) finishing higher than Braun or Ryan Howard getting a second place vote for his worst full season ever? What cruel joke is being played here?

One final point. How in the world does Roy Halladay finish 6th in the NL MVP vote with 130 points when Adam Wainwright, who produced nearly identical totals this season (you can read about that situation in NL Cy Young and an Import) received just 12 points?

Someone has some explaining to do.

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 1B for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 First Basemen for 2011 and explain my thoughts on the position.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?.

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Albert Pujols is the number one player at the position, and there is no debate that he is also the #1 option in fantasy baseball. Hence, it’s no surprise that Pujols was ranked #1 by everyone on staff.

Miguel Cabrera is the second best right-handed hitter in baseball if you ask this scribe. He was also my choice as the AL MVP for 2010. It’s no surprise therefore that I listed him second amongst the first sackers. Everyone else agreed with me except for Jason Collette who listed Cabrera third, one spot behind Joey Votto. Given that everyone else on staff had Votto third, let’s just say that there is universal agreement on the top-3.

In the 4th spot we had power hitter extraordinare Ryan Howard. Even coming off the worst full season of his career (31 homers, 109 RBI), the staff clearly thinks he has a chance to return to the level that saw him produce at least 45 homers with 136 RBI each year from 2006-09.

Mark Teixiera was atrocious in April hitting .136 with two homers. Predictably he came on strong as the year progressed finishing with his customary power totals (33 homers and 108 RBI). Tex also scored 113 times, a career best, which helped to make up for his .256 average, the first time he had dipped below .280 since his rookie season. He was given a 7th place ranking by Seth Trachtman or he likely would have pulled ahead of Howard for 4th spot overall

Adrian Gonzalez came in 6th ahead of Prince Fielder, though I had the two in the other order. I bet the staff was thinking (a) Gonzalez could be traded and if he is, out of the best pitcher’s park in baseball, his numbers would improve; (b) Gonzalez is a more consistent player who owns a slightly higher career batting average (.284 to .279); (c) people were likely put off by the mere 83 RBI that Fielder had in ’10. I wonder if they would change their minds now that it appears that the shoulder surgery that Adrian Gonzalez had will keep him out of action until February or March?

In 8th and 9th were two sluggers who are dynamic options, albeit coming off of injury plagued seasons. Kevin Youkilis was his normal star self hitting .307-19-62 with 77 runs in just 102 games. He had surgery to repair a thumb injury and should be fine for the start of 2011. Justin Morneau was even more effective hitting an amazing .345 with 18 homers, 56 RBI and 53 runs in just 81 games. His season was ended by a concussion, and he is still not able to physically handle baseball related activities. The Twins believe he will be ready for opening day, though because of that health issue, I didn’t have Morneau in my top-10.

After that there were a bunch of players that didn’t receive a full compliment of votes. In fact, neither did Morneau (Youkilis was the last first basemen who appeared in the top-10 on all ballots).

My #9 guy was Paul Konerko. You can read more on my thoughts about him in the 2010 White Sox Team Review.

My 10th rated first basemen is the most consistent power hitter in baseball – Adam Dunn. In each of the past seven seasons he has hit at least 38 home runs. That is the second longest streak in baseball history – tied with Babe Ruth – and just two behind the all-time mark held by Sammy Sosa.

As they say, first base is the land of sluggers.

By Ray Flowers

First Round, 2011

It’s months away, and you’re likely either (a) intensely watching the playoffs, (b) knee deep in fantasy football or (C) all excited about fantasy hockey or basketball, but it’s never too early to look ahead. So, and I’m sure this list will change innumerable times before the actual 2011 drafting season is upon us, in honor of my Review: First Round, 2010 article in which I looked back at the top-15 choices in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft from the just completed season, here is my early projection of what the first round of a 2011 draft might look like.

15- Alex Rodriguez
He’s hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI in each of the past 13 seasons, and that is the longest streak in MLB history. He’s the Yankee I think will go in the first round over Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.

14- Evan Longoria
Entering his fourth season, his career bests in the 5×5 categories would result in a .294-33-113-100-15 line.

13- David Wright
Rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to go .283-29-103-87-19. Wright has hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals in five of the last six years.

12- Josh Hamilton
I wouldn’t take him this early, he’s still a big health risk in my eyes, but he did lead baseball with a .359 average, and he has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in two of the past three seasons.

11- Chase Utley
An injury limited him to 115 games, but there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to go .285-25-90-100-15 yet again in 2011.

10- Adam Wainwright
Over the past two years Wainwright has 39 victories (2nd in baseball), a 2.53 ERA (2nd), 425 Ks (7th), 3.48 K/BB (10th) and 463.1 IP (6th).

9- Roy Halladay
Lets look at Halladay’s numbers the past two years – 38 wins (3rd), 2.61 ERA (3rd), 427 Ks (6th), 6.57 K/BB (1st) and 489.2 IP (1st). Barely a difference between him and Wainwright.

8- Troy Tulowitzki
He appeared in only 60 games in the second half but still hit .323 with 18 homers, 61 RBI an a 1.020 OPS. Dude is a star.

7- Joey Votto
The likely NL MVP was second in the NL in batting average (.324), third in homers (37), third in RBI (113) and first in OPS (1.024).

6- Miguel Cabrera
His numbers are a near carbon copy of Votto’s (.328-38-126 with a 1.042 OPS) though Miggy gets the nod as the higher selection because he has done it for longer. Amazingly, Cabrera is only five months older.

5- Carlos Gonzalez
He was flipping amazing in ’10 (.336-34-117-111-26), but he must learn how to hit on the road (.289-8-41 with a .775 OPS).

4- Carl Crawford
If we remove the 2008 season, CC has gone at least .301-11-68-89-46 in each of the past five seasons.

3- Hanley Ramirez
He disappointed some after a monstrous 2009 (.342-24-106-101-27) as he produced a 5×5 line of “only” .300-21-76-92-32.

2- Ryan Braun
I’ve got the sneaking suspicion that we haven’t seen the best from him yet, and that is saying something when you consider that his 162 game average is .307-36-118-111-18.

1- Albert Pujols
Until someone dethrones the king, he remains my choice as the top selection. There isn’t a more consistently excellent option in the game – period.

By Ray Flowers