Player Profile: Johan Santana

On June 30th of 2012, Mets’ starting pitcher Johan Santana had a 2.76 ERA. That means halfway through the year his ERA was under three. By the time his season ended in mid August his ERA was 4.85. What happened over the course of his last five starts was legendary (he was shutdown for good after his August 17th outing). Santana allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last five starts as he went 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA. Moreover, after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in his no-hitter on June 1st Santana dropped seven of 10 decisions with a 8.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP while averaging less than five innings a start. Where does that leave Santana’s value heading into the 2013 season?

Johan Santana hurt his shoulder, and as we have seen repeatedly, shoulder injuries are much dicier than elbow issues. Santana’s shoulder issue precluded him from throwing a single pitch during the 2011 big league season so it shouldn’t have surprised many that he was only able to reach 117 innings last season. Did you listen when I warned against drafted Santana last February in One of Those Days where, to quote myself, I wrote the following: “Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was.” Let me be a bit more clear. Here are Johan’s innings pitched marks the past four years: 166.2, 199, zero and 117. Three of the past four years he hasn’t reached 170 innings, and the last time he tossed 200 innings was 2008. At 33, with a wonky shoulder, what are the odds he tosses 200 innings in 2013? I know the Mets are saying that they believe he will be able to carry a full workload this year, but that’s just crazy talk if you ask me.

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So what happened last year? The Mets allowed Santana to get the first no hitter in franchise history, but they paid a dear price. Santana, as I noted above, was never the same pitcher thereafter. You can say ‘coincidence’ and maybe you are right, but the data certainly is pretty overwhelming that throwing those 134 pitches just wiped him out. Taking a look at the rest of his 2012 season, the Mets really blew it. Johan made 21 starts last season. Only seven times, one third of his outings, did he throw even 100 pitches. The Mets were very careful not to allow him to throw too many pitches, and when they limited his pitch count he was very effective. However, that one slip up throwing those 134 pitches certainly appears to have been his downfall. Does that mean the Mets will use him as a 5-6 inning guy this season? Obviously that could cut into his win potential if they chose to deploy him that way.

Some other facts to consider with Santana.

His ERA in 2012 was an 11 year high.

His WHIP was a 10 year high.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was a nine year high.

His 2.85 K/BB ratio was his second worst mark of the past nine years.

His 1.31 HR/9 mark was the second worst mark of his career.

For the third straight year he failed to post a GB/FB ratio of 0.80. He allows an awful lot of fly balls.

Finally, everyone loves to down Tim Lincecum for his lost velocity, but I wonder how many noticed that Johan has lost almost 4.5 mph from his heyday off his heater (it was a career low 88.4 mph last year)?

Could we find Bigfoot by using an aerial drone?

On the plus side…

His 8.54 K.9 rate was a four season best, though still below his 8.83 career mark.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was still below the league average, and his 2.85 K/BB ratio were still a half batter better than the league average. They might be bad numbers for Santana, but they are fine for a normal hurler.

His line drive rate was 24.0 percent. Even if his stuff is no longer elite that’s a huge number for a guy who owns a career mark under 20 percent.

His HR/F ratio of 11.7 percent was the second worst mark of his career, well above his 9.2 career rate. Some normalization there would help.

The Mets are putting on a brave face saying that they think Johan will be good to go for Opening Day and that he will make 30 starts this season (they had better hope they are right since he is due $25 million this year with another $25 next season unless they buy out his 2014 campaign for $5.5 million). I’m not sold. As an aging hurler with lots of miles on his arm I’m concerned. Add in the shoulder woes he’s dealt with and the historic collapse he tossed out there at the end of last season and you too should be very concerned. There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on Johan, he still knows how to “pitch,” but with all the issues surrounding him right now he had better be a reserve round type in mixed leagues and not someone you are counting on heavily in 2013.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: It’s Trading Season

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss trades they have recently made. They discuss reasons for trading at this junction of the season, reasons to for trade players or trade away players and much more. They discuss Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Harang.

Listen to the Audio.

Around the Horn: June5, 2012

(1) King Felix to have his start Wednesday skipped because of a wonky back.

(2) Johan Santana start pushed back two days. Chris Young to start for Mets Tuesday.

(3) Dustin Pedrioa (thumb) will avoid the DL.

(4) Jemile Weeks doing nothing at the dish – nothing.

(5) Alex Presley recalled by Pirates.

(6) Willin Rosario thinks he’s Adam Dunn.

(7) Mike Trout has been utterly dynamic.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

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By Ray Flowers

The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

One Of Those Days

You ever have one of those days? You know the type. You wake up with a little bit of an extra pep in your step. The morning sun hits your face as you sip on your hot coco. You’re looking forward to a good day of work which will then be capped off by an evening with someone you care about. What could be better than those simple pleasures, right?

And then the real world smacks you in the face.

That happened to me today. Oh there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, it’s still well before 11 AM as I write this, but darned if life doesn’t just try and beat you down whenever it can. Why is that (in case you are wondering, nothing “really” bad happened to me, it was actually more about typical annoyances)?

In the vein of “bad days,” here are some guys that have had life beat them down of late. Hopefully they’ve got some Bailey’s Irish Cream to throw in that hot coco.

Alejandro De Aza – A solid option really late in drafts for the speed upside, that outlook was crushed when the White Sox decided to add Kosuke Fukudome to the outfield mix. So much for that 26th round pick of De Aza offering much of anything. He’s now merely an AL-only option.

Josh Hamilton – No need to pile on here. Let’s just hope that he gets his life back on track. A positive note came out Thursday. Hamilton will not face any discipline from the Rangers or Major League Baseball for his recent off the field transgressions with the bottle.

Scott Kazmir – He was supposed to throw for interested parties on Wednesday, but for some unknown reason the session was pushed back until Friday (he claims it has nothing to do with any physical sort of limitations and the most likely explanation is that some team that had an interest likely wasn’t going to be able to present at his throwing session on Wednesday). What the hell happened to Kazmir by the way? Just 28 years old, it’s amazingly easy to forget that it was a mere couple of years back that he was locked at as one of the up an coming lefties in the game. He wasn’t just coming on to fill a 4th or 5th rotation spot either. Kazmir was going to be an elite hurler. In 2005 he posted a 8.42 K/9 mark in 186 innings. In 2006 he upped that number to 10.14 over 144.2 innings. In 2007, his best campaign, he won 13 games, posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out a significant total of 239 batters in 206.2 innings. Those K’s led to a 10.41 K/9 mark which just so happens to be the 8th best mark that any left-handed pitcher, who threw at least 162 innings, has been able to post in the 21st century (if we remove Randy Johnson’s efforts that would put Kazmir’s mark in the 4th spot). Alas problems with his conditioning and dedication came up, and his arm ran out of juice (his average fastball was 93.7 mph as a rookie, 92.6 mph in his second season, and it dipped all the way to 86.5 mph in his 1.2 inning outing last year for the Angels). He’s still young enough to carve out a role but he will never reach the heights that were predicted.

Derrek Lee – I know he’s older at 36 years of age, and that he struggled for much of the season last year, but Lee still hit .267 with 19 homers in just 435 at-bats. So why is he still without a team? Certainly there are offers on the table for Lee, likely as a part-time option, so I’m going to assume that Lee is holding out for a starting gig somewhere. I find it hard to believe that there are 30 better first basemen out there right now but he’s still sitting at home.

Johan Santana – Coming back from shoulder surgery, all eyes are on the one time superstar of the Mets, but come on now. Did you see the report that the Mets’ pitching coach – Dan Warthen – was impressed by a video of Santana throwing. Really? I’ve got better things for you to watch on your laptop than Santana chucking the ball around – maybe an episode of Grimm? Did you also see the report that he was throwing from 175 feet? Whoopie freaking do. I haven’t regularly thrown the ball in about 10 years and I could go our and play catch from 175 feet. That means nothing. Johan plans on throwing at the Mets’ camp today so I guess the eyes of the baseball nation will be upon him. Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was. As if age, workload and shoulder surgery weren’t enough to worry about, have you bothered to look at his numbers the last few years? I can list one series of numbers for you that should make you exceedingly nervous, even if he is healthy once more in 2012. Here are his K/BB ratios the past six seasons (remember, he didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2011): 5.29, 5.21, 4.52, 3.27, 3.17 and 2.62. Uh, that’s not a good trend even if the 2.62 K/BB ratio he posted in 2010 is still well above average.

By Ray Flowers

To purchase the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, click on the link.

Around the Horn: August26, 2011

(1) Giants/Padres deal for Heath Bell doesn’t materialize. Giants left with wounded Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

(2) Johan Santana likely done for year (possibly Jonathan Niese as well). Jose Reyes hopefully back next week.

(3) Indians place Josh Tomlin/Michael Brantley on DL. Shin-Soo Choo hurt. Jim Thome now an Indian.

(4) Curtis Granderson having a historic season for the Yankees.

(5) Travis Snider wrist injury ends his season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 12, 2011

(1) The walking wounded – Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.

(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?

(4) Russell Martin slumping.

(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 5, 2011

(1) Tim Lincecum makes strikeout history as his fastball speed returns thanks to his offseason training (for more see Link O’ Rama).

(2) Josh Johnson the best early season pitcher in the game.

(3) Aaron Crow showing Royals his worth as a pen ace.

(4) Carl Crawford finally hitting, making history.

(5) Adrian Gonzalez productive, minus the power.

By Ray Flowers