The man, myth and legend Ray Flowers joins Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray on “The Fantasy Beat” to give his take on the young 2013 fantasy baseball season. The guys talked about hitters and pitchers who have garnered a lot of attention over the last few weeks.
Brandon Crawford, Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer, Paul Maholm, Ross Detwiler, Bartolo Colon, John Buck, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Ruggiano
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are getting you ready to win your fantasy baseball championship by talking about some key prospects you need to keep your eye on early in the season.
Aaron Hicks, Darin Mastroianni, Travis d’Arnaud, John Buck, Dan Straily, Tony Cingrani, Billy Hamilton, Wil Myers
Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.
To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.
@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.
CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. John Buck
Napoli has never faced Zach McAllister before. However, Napoli is second in baseball with 14 RBIs against right-handed pitchers, two less than Miguel Cabrera.
Oh hell, just start Buck. The snow seems to have finally stopped in Colorado and the guys is batting .326 on the year. But be warned… he’s hitting .214 the past week and he’s hit only .238 against John Garland in his career (and yes, I know he’s not eligible for daily games since his game time is early in the day).
FIRST BASE
1. Nick Swisher
2. Paul Konerko
Swisher is trending right now and he’s got a strong matchup to keep it going. Swisher has hit .326 with an OPS over 1.000 in 46 at-bats against Jon Lester. Two homers and eight RBIs are a nice sweeter.
Konerko has four hits, including two homers, in 10 at-bats against R.A. Dickey. He’s also batting .360 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs scored the past seven days.
SECOND BASE
1. Neil Walker
2. Kelly Johnson
Slow start be damned, Walker has kicked things up a notch the past week with 10 hits in 22 at-bats leading to a .455 average and six RBIs.
Johnson, like Walker, is cranking things up. He’s only had 13 at-bats, but he’s gone for four hits, a .308 average, and he’s gone deep twice for the Rays in that time.
THIRD BASE
1. Ty Wigginton
2. Chris Johnson
Wigginton has been terrible this season when called upon with two hits in 13 at-bats. He may not even play tonight. Still, he likes facing Cole Hamels whom he has five hits against in nine at-bats.
Johnson faces lefty Jeff Locke. He’s 0-for-1 against the youngster, but he is hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against lefties this season and he’s also hitting .409 overall.
SHORTSTOP
1. Cliff Pennington
2. Jimmy Rollins
Pennington is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Phil Hughes. Cliff is also seeing regular work with the D’backs, even if the effort thus far hasn’t been overly exciting (zero HR/SB in 51 at-bats). Hey, there aren’t that many games tonight.
Rollins has one hit in 18 at-bats the past week. He’s only hitting .232 on the season. So why am I noting him here? He’s actually had success against Adam Wainwright with a .350 average in 20 at-bats.
OUTFIELD
1. Gerardo Parra
2. Garrett Jones
Parra faces right Phil Hughes, a hurler he has never seen before, but Parra has had a lot of success against righties this year. In 40 such at-bats Parra is batting .375 with a homer, a triple and five doubles.
Jones doesn’t have a single at-bat against a lefty this year, but that’s fine since he has hit .325 against righties. He faces Julio Teheran of the Braves. He’s right-handed.
STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Sale
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Mike Gonzalez
4. Tony Cingrani
The Blue Jays have managed a mere .250 average and just one RBI in 12 at-batsm agianst the lefty. Sale hasn’t had as much success in his career on the road, but he’s still been good away from Chicago (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 147 IP).
Corbin is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. He’s gone six innings in each outing, and today he faces a Yankees club that is dealing with all kinds of injuries, so the matchup isn’t anywhere near as bad as it might sound like when you first hear it.
Gonzalez has tossed two quality starts in his two outings this season, though eight strikeouts and seven walks ain’t exactly great. The Rays are the lowest scoring team in the AL right now, so the matchup isn’t unappealing.
For more of my thoughts on Cingrani, see my Rounding the Bases column. Oh, he’s facing the pathetic Marlins as well.
By Ray Flowers
Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, I’ll also be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 9th.
To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.
CATCHERS
1. John Buck
2. Wilin Rosario
Not only does Buck have three homers and 12 RBIs in just seven games (the most RBIs in Mets history over the first seven games of the season), but he’s facing Cliff Lee, a pitcher who he has hit .292 with three homers against in 48 at-bats.
The Rockies’ backstop is hitting .350 with three homers on the year, and Rosario also has four hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats against Tim Lincecum.
FIRST BASE
1. Todd Helton
2. Adrian Gonzalez
Helton is broken down, old, and generally ineffective. However, he’s always risen to the occasion against Tim Lincecum who he is hitting .359 with a .479 OBP against across 39 at-bats.
I don’t know how this is possible, but in eight at-bats against Clayton Richard A-Gone has only gone back to the dugout once without reaching base. That’s right, he’s got seven hits in eight at-bats (.875 with all the hits being singles). He’s not playing, but Hanley Ramirez has been even better with nine hits in 10 at-bats against Richard.
SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Donovan Solano
Utley is only 2-for-8 against Dillon Gee, but he’s hit .301 with a .918 OPS at home in his career and he’s also managed a .297 average and .888 OPS against righties in his career.
Solano has six hits in his last five games and is batting .292 on the young season. He’s also produced four hits, including two homers, in seven at-bats against Kris Medlen.
THIRD BASE
1. Juan Uribe
2. Chris Johnson
Uribe flat out kills it against Clayton Richard as he’s hit .385 with a 1.159 OPS, including two homers, against the lefty in 26 at-bats.
Johnson is only 1-for-3 against Wade LeBlanc in his career, but he had three hits Monday and his career numbers against lefties say he would produce about 78 RBIs over 550 at-bats.
SHORTSTOP
1. Jed Lowrie
2. Ruben Tejada
Tejada has a hit in three of his last four games, and on the year he has five walks versus four strikeouts. He’s also had a bunch of success against Cliff Lee with six hits in 13 at-bats (.462).
According to ESPN, Lowrie hasn’t sung and missed the last five games covering a total of 31 swings. He’s also produced nine line drives in the 19 balls he’s put into play.
OUTFIELD
1. Jon Jay
2. Jeff Francoeur
Jay is hitting .242 on the young season, but he’s a career .299 hitter who is about to face Bronson Arroyo, a hurler who he has 10 hits in 25 at-bats against (.400).
Francoeur has hit .316 in 19 at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Frenchie has also been mildly effective at Kauffman Stadium in his career hitting .271 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs over 569 at-bats.
STARTING PITCHERS
1. Wily Peralta vs. Cubs
2. Kris Medlen vs. Marlins
3. Andy Pettitte vs. Indians
4. Brandon Maurer vs. Astros
Peralta faces the Cubs, and the Cubbies are hitting .186. One-eighty-six, with an OPS of 540 folks. Last season Tim Hudson, he’s a pitcher in case you forgot (though he used to DH in college), hit .218 with a .523 OPS. Just saying.
Medlen isn’t facing the Astros, more on that below, but he is facing an terrible Marlins club that is hitting .228 with a .295 OBP and .298 SLG. They’ve also only gone deep two times while scoring 14 runs in seven games.
Pettitte has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 13 starts. In his last six starts against the team from Cleveland he’s also posted a 2.86 ERA.
Maurer looked pretty bad in his first outing as he allowed six runs in six innings, but at this point, how do you not consider any hurler against the Astros? The club from Houston is hitting .201 with a .234 OBP and .275 SLG. Honestly, you can’t be a professional club and do any worse.
To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.
By Ray Flowers
The Marlins have done this before. They’ve ripped apart a team, torn it down after having success (well not this time), to save money. They outdid themselves Tuesday night when they agreed to a deal, not yet approved by Major League Baseball, with the Blue Jays. Before I delve into the deal, here are a few of the Twitter responses by people to the deal.
#Marlins insist Grooms sculpture will not be traded for the Hard Rock Café at Rogers Centre. Sculpture is not convinced. – @jonmorosi
#Marlins opened season with a payroll of roughly $100MM. After this trade, non-arb 2013 obligations will be ~ 25MM. Historic salary dump. – @jonmorosi
#Marlins will have no $$ committed to payroll in 2014. At this moment, Dobbs and Nolasco are only players #Marlins are committed to in even 2013. – @Joelsherman1
Remember: The #Marlins do not award no-trade clauses. – @Ken_Rosenthal
Report: #Marlins sending their stadium to #BlueJays as part of the deal. – @BaseballGuys
Alright, I’m pissed off!!! Plain & Simple. - @Giancarlo818
Here’s the deal as we currently understand it in what is the most lopsided trade potentially in the history of professional sports.
Blue Jays receive: shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio and $4 million.
Marlins receive: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino, and catcher Jeff Mathis.
TRADE REVIEW
The Blue Jays get an elite shortstop, and when healthy, a borderline elite arm on the hill. Reyes is a top-5 shortstop in terms of offense, and his defense is solid. Johnson is coming off his worst season, but that effort still included a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.76 K/9 and 2.54 K/BB. Those are still pretty solid numbers. Buehrle, for the 12th straight season, threw at least 200-innings while winning 10 or more games. Buck is a catcher with 20 homer power, though one that is far from stable at the dish given his swing and miss ways. As for Bonifacio, he was on pace to lead baseball in steals last season before he was waylaid by injury. He played 51 games in CF and 15 games at second base, this a year after he also played 36 games at third base and 67 at shortstop. Here’s a potential lineup for the Blue Jays.
1 Jose Reyes, SS
2 Emilio Bonifacio, 2B
3 Jose Bautista, RF
4 Edwin Encarnacion, DH
5 Brett Lawrie 3B
6 Adam Lind, 1B
7 Colby Rasmus, CF
8 J.P. Arencebia, C
9 Rajai Davis
Looking at that daily lineup, you have to be pretty impressed. Speed, power — the only thing they really don’t have is batting average production. Could be a lot of homers and steals though. Maicer Izturis, who signed a 3-year, $10 million deal, now becomes a very expensive super sub. There’s no way around the fact that Toronto has just massively improved their roster. At the same time, two concerns. (1) How will Johnson and Buehrle perform in the AL East? It’s not exactly an easy place to pitch. (2) The Blue Jays took on about $165-$170 million in salary in the deal.
The Marlins received Yunel Escobar, a player who needed a change of scenery. He’s a middle of the pack major league shortstop. Henderson Alvarez, who I wrote about before the season in this Player Profile, performed exactly like I expected – relatively poorly (9-14, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 3.80 K/9). My review of Jeff Mathis? A strong defender behind the dish who might be the worst hitter of his generation.
In terms of on the field product the Marlins were taken about behind the woodshed, hit in the head with a stick, had their wallet stolen, their clothes stripped from their bodies and then were tied up. The offender then took their keys, went to their house, packed up their flat screen TV, their fancy refrigerator and pocketed their jewelry. They then went on line, emptied the victims bank account, and erased their identity. Not finished, they then burned the house down, ran their car into the river and and defecated on what was left of the front lawn. You get the point, right?
BASEBALL IN MIAMI
It’s over. If you are a fan of the franchise, I have to think that ended yesterday. How could it go any other direction? In addition to gutting the franchise yet again, the Marlins did a complete 180 degree turn less than a year after they plotted a new direction for their franchise. After signing all those big money deals last offseason (see Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors), don’t forget they already traded Heath Bell to the D’backs, they gutted their team on Tuesday. Not only have they weakened their on the field product immensely, they have also turned their nose up at their fans, flipped them off, punched them in the face, and stolen their lunch money. Remember, the Marlins just built, at a cost of nearly $640 million, a stadium of which they only paid $125 million for saddling the public with the remaining cost (the County spent roughly $376 million, which will have to be raised in taxes, while the City of Miami also chipped in $132 million). The Marlins also received an interest free loan of $35 million to help with expenses which they will have to pay back at a rate of $2.3 million a year. I’ll just say it – Jeffrey Loria is a crook. Plain and simple. Make sure you read Tim Brown’s review of the deal to get a fuller understanding of how the most greedy man in pro sports is running the Miami Marlins.
It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.
HITTERS – FRIDAY
John Buck vs. Cliff Lee: Buck has been awful this year but in his last six games he has three homers and seven RBI. He’s also got a matchup that he has had success in given that he has hit .317 with three homers an a 1.001 OPS over 41 at-bats against the one time ace lefty.
Ryan Roberts vs. Randy Wolf: Roberts isn’t exactly tearing it up, but with Josh Bell demoted he has a shot to reclaim a daily role with the club. He hit a homer in his last game and Friday he faces Wold who he has produced seven hits in 15 at-bats against (.467 with one homer). By the way, don’t start Wolf Friday. He’s allowed a .329/.391/.574 slash line to the current D’backs roster in 155 at-bats.
B.J. Upton vs. Justin Verlander: You know the term ‘playing with fire?’ Here we go with that. Upton has been in a terrible slump that has led to one hit in six games, and he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Still, the numbers suggest it’s not as bad as it seems as Upton has eight hits, including a homer, in 18 at-bats against Verlander leading to a .444 average and five RBIs (Hideki Matsui has also had some success hitting .333 in 24 at-bats).
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Ross Detwiler vs. Braves: He hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career with a 3.80 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 23.2 innings, but his numbers this season against everyone look impressive (3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Plus, he’s been locked in for the month of June with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 16.1 innings.
Brian Duensing vs. Royals: This is one of those shot in the dark calls based totally on history and pretty much nothing else. Brian D. has made only one start this year so he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, and his last outing was unsuccessful (4 ER in 2 IP). Still, history says he makes for a nice play against the Royals: 6-2, 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings.
Mike Leake vs. Giants: Leake has killed it in June with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.50 K/BB ratio (though he’s only gone 1-0, great job Reds). The negative? He faces Matt Cain.
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Wilson Betemit vs. Josh Tomlin: Three things make this move make sense. (1) Betemit is 7-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Tomlin. (2) Betemit has been hot in June hitting .383 with a 1.008 OPS in 60 at-bats. (3) Tomlin has been awful in June with a 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10 Ks in 26.2 innings.
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Just seeing this matchup should interest you, even if you had no idea about their history versus one another. Given that Mauer is hitting .450 with a .577 OBP against Hochevar in 26 plate appearances, it’s lock and load time with the star hitting catcher.
Placido Polanco vs. Mark Buehrle: Normally Polanco would be the last guy to pay any attention at all too since all he does is produce singles. Still, you simply cannot overlook his massive career efforts against the Miami lefty. In 41 career at-bats Polanco has, get this, 18 hits leading to a .439 batting average against Buehrle.
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Michael Fiers vs. D’backs: He’s looked pretty darn good this season for the Brew Crew with 31 Ks and just five walks over 33.1 innings. That will play in any league. He’s also working on a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention that he has allowed just one run over his last 15.1 innings.
Mat Latos vs. Giants: He gets the weak link of the Giants staff in Barry Zito, and he’s also dominated the club from San Fran in 10 career starts with a 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.
Rick Porcello vs. Tampa Bay: His season has been an uneven one, what else is new, but he’s looked pretty locked in over his last two starts permitting three runs over 13 innings. He’s also going to be facing a club that he ha had success against in three career starts. Over 20 innings Rick P. has 17 Ks and has issued only five free passes leading to a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
CONTESTS
DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. DJ has redesigned things to help you navigate the games, and let me tell you, consider me impressed. It looks pretty darn sharp – don’t you think?
By Ray Flowers
(1) Anthony Rizzo called up by Cubs. Will he kill it from the start?
(2) Trevor Bauer called up by D’backs. An ace in the making?
(3) Kevin Youkilis dealt to White Sox. Can he put it back together?
(4) Chase Utley nearing return. Should you be excited?
(5) Everth Cabrera – speed demon worth a look
(6) John Buck – a power source?
By Ray Flowers
Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did. The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.
C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)
SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)
RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)
BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)
* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.
* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.
* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.
* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.
* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.
So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.
To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.
By Ray Flowers
Here are the answers to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Is it time to cut bait on Corey Hart?
– @DeKampanilya
Hart’s season started late because of injury, and then the Brewers made the mistake of activating him too quickly (he had only 15 at-bats appearances in the minors and produced two hits). “Maybe we could have kept him there longer but some of that has to do with the player… Corey thought he was ready,” said manager Ron Roenicke. Clearly, Hart wasn’t ready. Through 34 at-bats he is batting .176, has a .382 OPS and hasn’t produced a single RBI. So do you drop him? Would you drop Troy Tulowitzki? If you weren’t aware, he has been worse than Hart the past two weeks hitting just .093. Obviously Tulo is a better player than Hart, but the point should be obvious – you don’t want to panic and drop guys with track records of success because of down periods. Coming off a season in which he hit 31 homers, knocked in 102 runs and scored 91 times – something only seven other hitters in the game did last year – it would be pretty darn tough to recommend dropping Hart unless you are desperate or in a really shallow mixed league.
Raul Ibanez off waivers? Yeah, I’m that desperate.
– @Chris_Rinaldi
Ibanez had an 0-for-35 stretch recently, and the results of that slump are clearly evident in his .222 batting average for the season. At the same time, the guy has completely turned things around of late with five multiple hit games in his last seven outings. In fact, over the last seven days Ibanez is hitting .462 with two homers and five RBI as he is on his way to putting that massive slump to bed. However, there are concerns with Ibanez. First, he will be 39 years old next month and coming off his worst HR total (16) in six years and his worst RBI mark (83) in seven years. Second, Domonic Brown is closing fast hitting .367 with four bombs, 10 RBI and 11 runs in 13 minor league games as he works his way back from injury. Will Brown eat into Ibanez’s playing time? He may not if Ben Francisco continues to struggle so mightily (he has one hit in 18 at-bats in May), but both Ibanez and Francisco could be put on notice shortly when Brown is called up.
Ibanez is a veteran run producer and manager Charlie Manuel is nothing if not supportive, sometimes to a fault, of his veterans. There isn’t much reason to think that Ibanez can’t replicate the numbers he posted last season (.275-16-83), even with his slow start, so you’ll have to decide how much value there would be in your league for an outfielder like that.
Chris Iannetta and John Buck are on a tear lately. Which would you rather own?
– @chillmodious
Back in January I broke down Buck in How to Evaluate a Player. You can read that piece to find out why I felt that Buck didn’t appear likely to replicate the numbers he posted last season (.281-20-66-53). So far this season I’ve been sort of right. Buck is hitting a poor .236, though predicting a regression in his batting average was the easy to do after last season, but the counting numbers have been solid. If Buck were to maintain his current pace over 409 at-bats, the total he received last year with Toronto, here is how his 2011 effort would stack up.
2010: .281-20-66-53
2011: .236-15-63-59
While admitting my initial thoughts of a regression appear to be taking hold, I’m surprised at the fact that Buck has done as well as he has this year. At the same time, Buck has three homers and eight RBI in his last 10 games, or his numbers would look awful. He still isn’t getting on base (.317 OBP), but I will commend him for his BB/K mark which is 0.52. Of course, only once in his career has that mark been 0.40, and for his career it’s 0.28, so it’s doubtful to hold up. So in the end, I’m still sticking with the regression I predicted three and a half months ago.
I’ve long been a fan of Iannetta. He’ll never hit for a strong average, he is currently batting .247 and striking out 35 percent of the time, but he has always had plenty of power (five homers in just 77 ABs) and he has always known how to work the count (his OBP is a whopping .414). The difference between these two backstops boils down to this for me. Iannetta is younger (by three years), hits in a better park and knows how to take a walk. Sooner or later those factors will overcome a grip it and rip it hitter like Buck. While their numbers look pretty similar at this point, I’d offer this slant. Let’s compare each hitters career numbers, per 400 at-bats, and see what we end up with.
J. Buck: .243-15-56-47 with a .302 OBP and .723 OPS
Iannetta: .235-19-67-55 with a .358 OBP and .799 OPS
Give me Iannetta who has slightly more power, a much better eye, is younger and hits in the better ball park.
I need Closer. Would you deal Robinson Cano for Heath Bell and Grady Sizemore?
– @mattsenatore
Cano was drafted as the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. He’s done little to dissuade anyone from that view as he is hitting .290 with eight homers, 24 RBI and 18 runs scored. For those of you who love “pace” talk – that would equate to a season long fantasy line of .290-40-121-91-10. Uh yeah, that’s pretty good. Clearly you would only move Cano if the return was substantial.
Bell just lost his streak of 41-consecutive save chances converted, but he has still been dynamite yet again. Through 14 appearances Bell has posted a 1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and has converted eight of nine save chances. His strikeout mark is down almost two full batters from his career mark (7.71 compared to 9.45) and he is walking more batters than ever before (his current BB/9 mark of 3.86 is well above his career rate of 3.03), but I would take those two numbers to be more of a reflection of a small sample size than declining skills. With all the turnover in the 9th inning this year, there can’t be any argument whatsoever that Bell is one of about 10 “locks” at the backend of bullpens right now.
Sizemore started out on fire (he hist .378 in April), and then slumped miserably of late (.143 in May). In total, he’s hitting .288 with a .342 OBP. For his career he has hit .273 with a .363 OBP, so he’s pretty much right on track there. However, he’s really upped the homer pace with five bombs in 73 at-bats leading to a mark of one homer every 14.6 at-bats. Given that he hit one every 25.3 at-bats over his first 3,259 at-bats, you’d have to assume that rate will regress moving forward. However, the biggest concern with Sizemore is his utter lack of thefts. Sizemore has attempted only one steal and he was unsuccessful. It’s no a shock that he has curtailed his running since he is coming back off major knee surgery, but there is a massive difference in terms of the value of a player if he is swiping 20+ bases, as Sizemore did from 2005-08, compared to the a guy who just isn’t running.
I’d hold on to Cano. He’s as certain as any hitter in baseball to meet his lofty projections as an elite option. Sizemore, until he starts running, simply isn’t close to being an elite level fantasy outfielder. Bell is elite, but with seemingly half the teams in the league switching things up in the 9th inning on a daily bases you have, and will have, plenty of options to turn to if you need save help moving forward.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
This is the time of year that everyone is starting to really get into fantasy baseball. Magazines are starting to show up on the newsstands, mock drafts are heating up on line, and everyone is going about starting to piece together their cheat sheets for draft day. But a key component of how to put together the best team on draft day is often neglected, and that is how you actually evaluate a player. In what follows, I’ll point out some key thoughts to help you to learn how to properly address the question of what a guy’s value is for the coming season, and in order to do so I will focus on John Buck.
First, some general rules.
(1) You need to take into account what happened in 2010, but you need to be forward thinking, not rear looking.
(2) There is more to a player than 5×5 fantasy stats. Make sure you add into the equation where he plays his game (does the park favor hitters or pitchers?), where he will hit in the lineup and who will surround him in that lineup. Remember, counting numbers like runs and RBI are largely a function of the performance of teammates.
(3) Identify trends – but make sure the sample size is relevant. If a player has improved his batting average against left-handed pitching 4-straight years that trend means something. If he merely improved over 45 at-bats in the second half of last season, is that really relevant?
(4) Understand which measures to really focus on. Here is where many people are tripped up as they get bogged down focusing on the wrong things.
Lets get to Mr. Buck to illustrate what I mean.
Last season Buck hit 20 homers, a career best. So he should hit at least 20 homers again, right? WRONG.
You need to look deeper than the surface numbers.
(a) Buck received more at-bats than ever before which partly explains the 20 homers. In fact, his HR/AB mark of one every 20.5 really isn’t drastically different from his 25.8 career mark.
(b) For the third time in four years his fly ball ratio was over 44 percent. However, it was actually a career-high of 44.7 percent, which when matched with a 14.7 percent HR/F ratio, the second best mark of his career, allowed him to reach his career best in homers. That’s a lot of factors coming together to help aid that homer total.
(c) In 2010 his home stadium in Toronto was the 2nd best park in the AL to deep in for right-handed batters according to Park Indicies. Buck will be playing in Florida in 2011, and last year Sun Life Stadium was just 13th in the NL in homers allowed to right-handed batters. That’s a massive change he will have to deal with. Buck will also be counted on to be one of the main power bats in Florida, whereas in Toronto he was just a depth guy at the end of the lineup (last year the Jays hit 257 home runs while the Marlins had more than 100 less at 152).
Given those three data points, it really isn’t wise to expect another 20 homer season from Buck. It could happen, but the odds are certainly against it.
Let us move to the batting average category.
Do you know what the difference is between hitting .270 and .300 is over the course of 500 at-bats? You’d produce 150 hits in 500 at-bats to hit .300 while you would produce 135 hits for a .270 mark. The 15 hits difference sounds like a wide gulf until you realize that the baseball season is basically six months long. That means the difference between hitting .270 and .300 is about one 2.5 hits a month or roughly a hit every 12 days. That’s a razor thin margin.
In the case of Buck, there are plenty of reasons to think his career best .281 mark last season was a fluke.
(a) Buck is a career .243 hitter.
(b) In seven seasons he has only hit .250 once.
(c) Buck led baseball with a .409 average against left-handed pitching (min. 50 at-bats). That mark is .142 above his career level.
That’s the history which says he has no chance to repeat. As for an in depth look beneath the .281 mark, all the indicators also say to be very afraid of a repeat.
(a) He had the worst walk rate of his career at 3.7 percent (career 6.5). A lack of patience does not bode well for continued batting average success.
(b) He struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. Moreover, his 27.1 percent K-rate was actually worse than his career 26.3 percent mark. If you strikeout that much it’s very difficult to consistently be a productive batting average option.
(c) Despite the career best average, Buck had a line drive rate of 16.1 percent, a mark that was 0.7 worse than his career level. How was he able to better his career batting average by almost .040 points while hitting fewer line drives than normal? How about this – he was lucky. Buck’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) mark was .335. Only once in his previous six seasons had that mark been over .300, and his career rate is just .289. It makes no sense that his line drive rate dropped while his BABIP sky rocketed.
Bottom line: Buck will hit home runs, he has a lot of power, but a run to another 20 homers seems improbable. As for his batting average, he has about a three percent chance of once again hitting .280. In fact, I’d lay better than 50/50 odds that his average will once again drop below .250.
Hopefully this brief primer will help to point you in the right direction when you start to put together your cheat sheets for draft day. Take into account the opinions of people that you know and respect, but at the same time don’t be afraid to role up your sleeves and do some analysis on your own – you might surprise yourself with how fun it is.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
