Review: Tout Wars

I stand accountable for my actions. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. Here is how things went in my first year in Tout Wars (I was in the mixed league with 15 clubs).

It all went wrong from the day the draft was held. The following three players saw me battle down to the end, it’s an action league, but ultimately I stopped bidding on all of them a dollar short (I was the runner up for each if you will): Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Greinke and Andrew McCutchen. In their place I ended up with Pablo Sandoval, Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton. Pretty understandable how I didn’t finish higher in the league isn’t it now? Speaking of Lee, I’m flabbergasted at his total of six wins. I started him every time he took the hill this year, so let’s saw he won 13 games and not six this season (his performance warranted 13 victories, at least, and he averaged 16 wins the previous four years). If I had seven more victories to my team total I would have gone from 86 wins to 93 victories. That alone would have netted me three more points in the standings and put me into 8th place overall. It’s always amazing how closely these things end up being after 162 games. If I had rostered EE, Greinke and McCutchen… I don’t even want to try and figure that out cause it would likely make me want to vomit.

Suzuki and Buck both had career worst seasons.

Carlos Lee was passable but Gaby Sanchez went from productive to the minors. Dreadful.

Chase Utley was supposed to miss about a month. He ended up playing only 83 games. Dustin Ackley played on a bad ankle all year and was terrible. At least Danny Espinosa turned out pretty damn well with 17 homers, 20 steals and 82 runs scored.

Derek Jeter was a star and a fantastic $13 investment on draft day.

Pablo Sandoval was solid when on the field. He didn’t get to even 400 at-bats though.

Nelson Cruz stayed healthy but didn’t perform to his previous levels, though surprisingly he remained relatively healthy. B.J. Upton was supposed to miss a week. Turned out to nearly be a month even though he was very impressive when on the field. Alex Rios – superstar effort for $13. Carl Crawford was thought to be good to go by May 1st at the latest. Hey, it was worth the risk as my 4th outfielder. Turns out his season was an unmitigated disaster as he had more injuries than John J. Rambo picks up when saving people in the jungle. He appeared in 31 games. Denard Span was a decent 5th OF in a 15 team mixed league, especially for $2, as he hit .283 with 17 steals.

On the hill Cliff Lee pitched very well, but couldn’t get any run support at all. Felix Hernandez wet the bed in September, but overall he had a very impressive season. John Danks, was injured and made just nine starts. Chad Billingsley was having a nice bounceback season but made 25 starts, his lowest total in five years, cause of injury. James McDonald was a fantastic reserve round add even if he too died in the second half. Oh, and Ricky Nolasco? It’s time to give up there. In the pen I had a tremendous group with Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo (I bought the duo for $7) and Kenley Jansen. However, Sergio Santos was a total bust due to injury, and literally right after Mariano Rivera was hurt and David Robertson was moved into the closing role, Robertston also came up lame. You guessed it. I also had Robertson on my staff. I could have had Romo/Clippard/Robertson/Jansen, all as closers, for a total of $13. That’s how you put together a pitcher staff without spending big dollars on closers. I finished second in the league in saves even with the injuries to Sergio Santos/Robertson and the Giants stubbornness in not using Romo as the closer until late in the year.

Missed substantial time on DL: Utley, Sandoval, Upton, Crawford, Santos, Robertson, Danks, Billingsley. When you lose that many guys in a 15 team league, it’s rough to play catchup. Not that I didn’t try considering that I had, at one time or another, 44 hitters and 25 pitchers work their way through my lineup.

CONGRATS: Cory Schwartz who won the league. Greatest celebration picture ever by the way.

FINAL RESULT: 9/15. Just wasn’t meant to be this year.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Billy Butler: Guess who loves to see the mustached one, Carl Pavano, toeing the rubber? This guy. Butler has hit .429 with a 1.124 OPS against the Twins’ righty in his career, and we’re talking 21 hits in 49 at-bats making those numbers pretty imposing. Toss in two homers and nine RBI and you should be giddy with Butler in your lineup.

Chipper Jones: Around an around the wheel spins, and where it stops no one knows. Will it stop on Chipper being IN or OUT of the lineup Friday? Who knows as this situation is about as dicey as your local weather forecaster who, inevitably, somehow ends up being off by 15 degrees when they tell you what the temperature will be. If Chipper plays he has a great matchup with 13 hits in 37 at-bats, a .351 average, with two homers and six RBI against A.J. Burnett.

Hunter Pence: Paul Maholm often posses little difficulty for the elite hitters in the game, so it’s hardly a surprise that a guy like Pence has had success against the Cubs hurler. In 44 career at-bats Pence has hit .318 with two bombs and nine RBI spread out over 44 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

John Danks: Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting a pitcher against the Red Sox, but the team is a mess right now. No Ellsbury or Crawford, Ross has a knee issue, they’ve got the off the field turmoil, all of that would seem to make Danks a passable play. Current Sox batters have a .186 batting average against Danks, not to mention that he has a 2.82 ERA over his last 30 innings against the Red Sox.

Tommy Hanson: He’s made four starts this season an only once has he allowed more than two runs. He’s also won two of his last three decisions, and on the year he has 23 Ks in 24 innings pitched. When you toss in the gravy on top of that turkey dinner, the competition, it’s a meal you’ll want to saddle up to the table to eat. His opponent Friday is the Pirates, a team hitting .221 with 41 runs scored, 18 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.

Corey Luebke: He’s starting against the Giants, and in general, that’s usually a good thing for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two starts, and that he’s allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts to drop his ERA to 2.52 and now we’re cooking with gas. You might pause to start him when you realize the game is being played in San Francisco, but that’s only because you haven’t looked at the numbers. In his career at home he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, impressive numbers to be sure, but no match for his work on the road (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Orlando Hudson: Yes he is hitting .206, and he is also facing Tim Lincecum Saturday. So why in the world is he listed here as a potential play? Surprisingly, O-Dog has 10 hits in 27 at-bats against The Freak, a .370 average. Hey, if you really think that Lincecum is that awful then you don’t have a problem starting Hudson, do you?

Grady Sizemore: He is hitting .550 with three homers in 20 at-bats against Dan Haren… oh, sorry.

Paul Konerko: The White Sox first sacker, who just blasted his 400th career homer, has enjoyed a ton of success against Jon Lester who also happens to be struggling to find any consistency this year on the hill. That make Konerko, who is hitting .389 with three homers and six RBI against Lester (18 at-bats) a solid play.

Danny Valencia: Not a name you probably figured you would be reading about, but when a guy has nine hits in 18 at-bats against someone (Bruce Chen) people tend to take notice. He hasn’t taken the lefty deep but he does have five RBI and just one punchout in their matchups.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Colby Lewis: Not only is Lewis 3-0 against the Rays with 15 Ks in 17.1 innings in his career, he’s off to a blazing start this year with a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 Ks in 26.2 innings. He’s also not beating himself with only one free pass issued proving that he’s about as locked in as any hurler in the game right now.

Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays hurler has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the year, but only 12 strikeouts through four starts causing some people to be a bit nervous. He should be able to turn that worry on its ear given that he faces a Mariners club that he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13 innings against. He’s 2-0 against the Mariners while posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez: This righty has made five starts against the D’backs to the tune of a 3-1 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 31 Ks in 34 innings. He’s allowed only two runs in each of his three starts this year. Seems like a recipe for success, does it not?

CONTEST

Are you ready to test your fantasy baseball acumen against one of the best in the business? Well you may not ever get the chance to do that, but I can guarantee that you will have your chance to take on Ray Flowers, me, in the BaseballGuys / DailyJoust $250 Free Roll this Friday, April 27th.

There’s still time to sign up. Click on the link to participate, for Free, to win $ and to get bragging rights if you can beat me.

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars: A Review

 I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.

After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:

Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)

I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.

On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:

C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)

Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.

Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.

I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk  about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).

Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?

 Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: John Danks

John Danks went 8-12 last year with a 4.33 ERA which is apparently causing a lot of people to be wary about rostering him in 2012 (how else can you explain the fact that guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Trevor Cahill are being taken ahead of him according to ADP numbers?). Hopefully I will be able to lay out a convincing case that Danks is not someone you should be fearful of rostering in 2012.

First off, win-loss records are terrible ways to look at a pitcher and try an decide how he performed. Trust me on that one. Even with eight victories last year Danks has still averaged 12 wins the past four years. That’s a solid total even with last years single digit mark.

Danks has a durable arm. Even last season when he struggled with performance an injury he still tossed 170-innings for the fourth straight year. The previous three seasons he threw at least 195 innings each season.

Danks had averaged 157 strikeouts from 2008-10. Last year he dipped to just 135 punchouts so the natural inclination is to think his K-rate slumped so you should be concerned. That’s not the case, an I’m sure that BaseballGuys.com readers already know that. In fact, Danks produced a 3-year high in his K/9 rate in 2012 at 7.13 (his mark the previous two years was 6.69 and 6.85). There’s no concern here.

Danks walk rate last season was 2.43 per nine innings. Guess what? That’s a career best number, half a batter below his 2.94 career rate. Danks’ 2.93 K/BB ratio in 2011 was also a career best mark by the way.

Danks had a 43.8 percent ground ball rate in 2011, his third straight year over 43 percent and slightly above his 4.26 percent career rate. The result was a 1.20 GB/FB ratio just one hundredth off the best mark he had ever posted (1.21 in 2008). Danks actually allowed the second fewest fly balls of his career, percentage wise at 36.4 percent, and his HR/F ratio for the year was 9.9 percent, a direct match for his career mark.

So let’s see if I have this straight when it comes to Danks’ performance in 2011.

A 3-year high in K/9.
A career best BB/9.
A career best K/BB.
A better than career number in GB/FB.
An average HR/F rate.

So why/how were Danks. ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.34) at four year worsts?

Some thoughts.

(1) Danks’ left on base percentage was 70.1 percent. That’s a career worst (career 73.3 percent).

(2) His batting average on balls in play was .313, a career worst (career .290).

(3) He was unlucky. I know that’s a simplistic way to look at any scenario, but it certainly seems that bad luck may have played a part in Danks’ fall last season in the ratio categories. Take a look at the xFIP of Danks last year (xFIP is normalized to the league level of homers and tracks those outcomes that a pitcher directly has in his control). Danks posted an xFIP of 3.79 which actually is a career best number (career 4.12).

So what do we have in Danks? I believe we have a hurler who is being somewhat overlooked in some respects because people perceive that his performance last year was poor when in truth that simply isn’t the case. If people in your league make the mistake of overlooking Danks consider yourself lucky because you’ll have a shot to roster a pretty darn good hurler on the cheap.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 26, 2011

(1) Buster Posey severely injured. Brandon Belt part of the callups as Giants make major changes. If you need help at the catchers position give Behind the Dish a read.

(2) Howie Kendrick to DL with leg issue.

(3) Brandon League is back at it.

(4) Andrew Bailey closing in on return.

(5) How useless are win-loss records to judge pitchers?

(6) Grady Sizemore (knee) could be back on Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers