Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September20, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you start Chris Carpenter Friday or wait and see?
– @lxvythrs

Chris Carpenter (thoracic outlet syndrome) last tossed a pitch of significance in October of 2011. That’s 11 months ago folks. I know that he is set to pitch Friday against the Cubs, but you have to be pretty desperate in my opinion to turn to Carpenter at this point of the fantasy season (obviously in H2H setups he might hold a bit more value as a streaming option depending on your league rules). Beyond the obvious, that he hasn’t tossed a single pitch of significance in 2012, we have the following. (1) Do you know how many pitches he has thrown in the minor leagues this season? Don’t bother looking it up. The answer is zero. (2) All he has done is throw simulated games. The last time he did so was last Saturday as he tossed a 95 pitch simulated game. Playing that out, it would seem logical to think that, even in a best case scenario, that he will throw at most six innings and that likely is asking too much. Could Carpenter toss a gem Friday? He certainly could. But given that he has been out of action for nearly a calendar year I’m not ready to throw him out there at such an important time of the year in the fantasy game unless I’m one of those people who doesn’t mind taking risks like diving with sharks, skydiving or going out to a restaurant to eat dinner by yourself (apparently going to dinner without a companion is risky behavior according to some).

Better keeper for next year – Johnny Cueto or Kris Medlen?
– @KRubes

Medlen has been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half. He’s undefeated at 8-0. Moreover, the Braves have won each of Medlen’s last 21 starts, the longest streak in baseball since Whitey Ford’s Yankees won 22-straight starts of his in the early 1950′s. He’s posted an ERA of 0.77. He has a WHIP of 0.84. He’s struck out 83 batters in 82.1 innings while walking only 13 batters. That’s as good a pitching line as you will likely ever see over a span of 82.1 innings. I hope we can all agree that the prospects of Medlen being that pitcher over the course of 180+ innings next year is infinitesimally minute, so the question is how much will his performance pull back in 2013? In order to try and get a feel for the answer to that question, let’s compare Medlen’s career numbers, over just slightly more than 300 innings, to those of Cueto.

Medlen: 7.88 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 3.63 K/BB, 1.42 GB/FB
Cueto: 7.01 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 2.50 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB

Medlen has the slight advantage across the board, but the numbers are close. There is obviously the additional factor that Cueto has been a starting pitcher who has thrown more than 170 effective innings innings in four of his five seasons in the big leagues. There’s also this. Since the start of last season, here are the numbers for Cueto who has been no slouch in his own right.

26-14, 2.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.65 K/9, 2.87 K/BB

Neither player is a bad pitcher to hold of course, but I’m leaning to the history of Cueto in this matchup. Medlen might have slightly better skills than Cueto, but without even a full season of innings under his belt as a starter I will cast my lot into the corner of the Reds’ hurler.

Manny Machado vs. Elvis Andrus 2013?
– @ghostyoda

Tough one here.

Machado is one of the elite prospects in the game, period. He’s performed admirably this season hitting .264 with four homers, 17 RBIs and 17 runs scored in 38 games this season with the Orioles in his first taste of big league pitching. At the same time he’s walked just three times in 148 at-bats, and that makes me very nervous with a young player. As a result of his lack of patience he’s currently been able to get on base at a mere .276 rate, an awful number. Machado has also struck out 30 times leading to a sickening 0.10 BB/K mark. This shouldn’t be surprising though considering that Machado had only 109 games of Double-A ball under his belt and not a single game at the Triple-A level when he made his Orioles debut. Not just that, but Machado really wasn’t producing that well in the minor leagues either. In his 109 games at Double-A this season he was hitting a mere .266 with 11 homers. In time Machado, the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 Entry Draft, will likely be a borderline elite fantasy performer. He’s big (6’3”, 185 lbs), athletic, has 20 homer power and should also be able to steal 15 or so bases a year. Notice I said in time.

Andrus is already an elite level performer at the shortstop position, albeit without a hint of the power of Machado. To counterbalance that is the fact that Andrus is an impressive base stealing option. Andrus has stolen 20 bases this year, the fourth straight season he has reached that mark (in fact, it’s 4-year low as he had hit the 30 steal mark in each of his first three seasons). Andrus is also batting .291 this season, the best mark of his young career, as is his .353 OBP and .388 SLG. Andrus has also recorded at least 80 runs scored in each of his last three seasons.

At this point I’d go with Andrus. Machado may be the upside play, and perhaps in a few years he will eclipse Andrus in terms of his fantasy value, but for now the 20 year old Machado is simply too raw an inexperienced to take over a player who has been an impressive fantasy option for each of the last four years.

How many beers will it take to get over blowing a 40 point July lead in my 7×7 roto league?
– @mdbaumer

I’d say it would at least be a pony keg’s worth. Might want to add something a bit stronger, perhaps a lot stronger, something like a Lemon Drop maybe?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

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Daily Joust – Wk 7: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Johnny Cueto (+96, $379K in DailyJoust salary)
Through nine starts Cueto has a 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP an a 5-1 record. He’s also allowed more than two earned runs just once this season. Moreover, six times this year he’s left the game having allowed one or zero earned runs. Injuries limited him last year to 24 starts, but if we add in his nine starts this year we get 33 starts covering 215.1 innings, a full season of work for an “ace-like” arm. In those 33 starts he has gone 14-6 with a 2.22 ERA an a 1.10 WHIP so maybe talk of him being an “ace” is warranted. Still, he’s struck out an average of 5.93 batters per nine innings, more than a batter below the big league average, and his 2.41 K/BB ratio is pretty average. The grounders have led to am immense level of success and there is no end in sight.

Felipe Paulino (+60, $426K)
Through three starts for the Royals Paulino has a 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21 Ks in 18.2 innings. A long time power arm, Paulino has 344 Ks in 366.1 innings in his career. He’s struggled with two things in his career – health and consistency. Well he’s already been hurt this year, so let’s hope that is out of the way. If he can just throw strikes, currently he’s sporting a 2.41 walk per nine mark which is more than a batter below his career rate, then he’s bound to have a lot of success even though few have seemed to have taken note (check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker).

CC Sabathia (+85, $425K)
A rock, CC has 65 Ks in 64.1 innings, and in each of his nine start he has gone at least six innings. The results haven’t been spectacular, he has a 3.78 ERA, but he gives you innings, Ks, pitches for the Yankees (leading to a 5-2 record), and never hurts you in the WHIP column (1.21). Expect the ERA to come down a bit as we move forward an expect him to continue to be one of the safest elite level arms in the game.

Max Scherzer (+46, $270K)
And that is why I kept telling everyone to keep the faith in Scherzer. The last time Mad Max took the hill he held the Pirates to two runs over seven innings as he allowed only five base runners. All of that is great news but it was the 15 punchouts that made it an elite effort. Fourth in baseball with 63 punchouts, Scherzer leads baseball with an 11.65 K/9 mark. You just don’t give up on an arm like that, even when it’s struggling to produce consistent results.

Ryan Zimmerman (+24, $90K)
Over his last three games Zimmerman has pushed his average up .025 points thank to seven hits. Struggling to find his way after injury, Zimmerman is still hitting just .257 with two homers and 12 RBI through 28 games. The lack of pop is what has really dragged him down so far as his .367 SLG is literally more than a hundred points low (career .476). Frequently injured, it seems like Ryan takes a while to find his groove once he returns. Seems like he just may have found that groove over the past few days.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Anthony Bass (-55, $185K)
He will be counted on heavily moving forward as it appears Cory Luebke will undergo Tommy John surgery. Bass has made eight starts and only once time has he allowed more than three earned runs resulting in a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also whiffed 51 batters in 53 innings showing a rather powerful right arm. Impressively, he’s actually been more effective on the road (2.57 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22 Ks in 21 IP) than at home (3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 29 Ks in 32 IP), and that means something when your home games are at Petco Park.

Hiroki Kuroda (-52, $178K)
Through eight starts he has been awful twice and solid ever other time he’s taken the hill. I’ve gotten so many questions about the guy after his last outing, but just remember this – before his last outing against the Blue Jays his ERA was 3.56 and his WHIP was in the 1.30′s. If you were expecting more from him hit season in New York you likely had set your sights too high.

Madison Bumgarner (-46, $276)
From April 10th through May 10th MadBum went 5-0 while allowing a total of six earned runs. Yeah, he was dominating. The last two times he’s taken the bump have been far from impressive – he’s allowed eight earned runs over 13.1 innings leading to two loses – but on the year the guy has a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and has looked every bit like the guy who might be ready to elevate his game even further this season.

Josh Beckett (-37, $279K)
I don’t know how his value has dropped the past week given that he’s worked 14.2 innings while striking out 14 batters an allowing one earned run in two victories. Putting behind him the seven runs he allowed to the Indians, Beckett is back to being a strong option on the hill for the Red Sox, and fantasy squads. In his eight starts he has six quality starts an overall his 40 Ks in 49.1 innings and 1.28 WHIP are solid enough to offset a somewhat elevated 4.28 ERA.

Denard Span (-19, $61K)
Span went hitless his last two games of the week but he still has six hits in his last five games. Hitting .291 on the year with four steals, Span is the type of player who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. He will be an average booster (career .285) and he has the speed to be a 20+ steal guy, but he has no power and with the Twins struggling to consistency put up runs he’s scored just 17 times in 37 games despite a solid .359 OBP.

DAILY CONTEST

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By Ray Flowers

What We Learned

The regular season still hasn’t officially gotten underway for all the teams, great scheduling MLB, but that issue will finally be rectified Friday. We do have a fair number of baseball games in the books, so what did we learn that we might be able to apply to the world of fantasy baseball?

Jose Bautista already qualifies as a third baseman and outfielder. On opening day he also moved over to play first base after the Jays removed Adam Lind in favor of a pinch runner. It’s only one game, but it hints that Bautista just might play five or 10 games at the position this year, the threshold in many leagues for a player to pick up positional eligibility which would only further enhance his obvious value.

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #1
Justin Verlander pitches eight scoreless innings and picked up a no-decision after Jose Valverde blew the save after not blowing a single one of his 49 opportunities last season. The guy who blew the game, Valverde, ended up with the victory when the Tigers came back to win. Remember what I always say about chasing victories? Or how about how I always say that you should never use a pitchers won-loss record as a judge of his performance? See what I’m saying?

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #2
Jon Lester didn’t quite match Verlander Thursday, but he pitched very well allowing just one run in seven innings. He ended up with a no-decision when the Red Sox bullpen blew it. Mark Melancon ended up with the loss, but it was Alfredo Aceves who actually deserved the loss (for my thoughts on the Red Sox Bullpen see: Relievers, Wild, Wild, West). He came into the game, hit a batter, and then gave up the game winning hit. Still, Aceves escaped with an unblemished record despite not getting an out in the effort.

You’re daily talk about closers… the Royals settled on Jonathan Broxton as their lead man in the 9th inning. At one time one of my favorites, Broxton was amazing in 2009 when he won seven games, saved 36, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and had a dominating 13.50 K/9 mark. Seasons like that lead you to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Broxton, it’s his only season of more than 22 saves, and it was also the last time he was an effective big league pitcher. Over the last two seasons Broxton has been injured an just passable in terms of his production: 6-8, 4.32 ERA an a 1.55 WHIP. He still struck out 9.96 batters per nine innings, but he only threw 75 innings in the two seasons as he just couldn’t stay healthy. I can understand why the Royals went with him in the 9th, he has the most experience of their bullpen arms and could bring a nice return if moved at the trade deadline (he’s on a one year deal), but I’m still not convinced he is going to be able to hold off Greg Holland all year.

Josh Collmenter was lucky as all heck last year to post a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154.1 innings. He didn’t strike anyone out (5.83 per nine), had a terrible GB/FB ratio (0.71) and seemingly got by mostly on his funky delivery. He looked lost all spring training and it won’t take much for the team to consider moving him to the bullpen, not with Trevor Bauer looking ready to give it a go in the majors. In his first start of the year at Double-A Bauer allowed just two hits and no runs, while striking out seven, in five innings.

Johnny Cueto ended last season with a 2.31 ERA but he threw only 156 innings falling short of qualifying for the NL ERA crown (a pitcher needs 162 innings). Well, he added to that excellence in his first start as he tossed seven shutout innings for the Reds. He induced 10 ground balls continuing a trend he started last season of generating a ton of ground balls. Speaking of the Reds, Aroldis Chapman looked completely dominating with two strikeout in a hitless 8th inning. When he is locating his pitches batters stand nary a chance of making hard contact.

Edinson Volquez allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings in his first start with the Padres. Unfortunately he picked up a loss as he walked four batters, including two with the bases loaded. All he needs to do is to throw strikes to be effective. The question is, can he?

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

I get heat all the time for putting pictures of beautiful women on my site (I even had a female follower tell me I should even things out and put a beefcake on the site. She’s obviously right, but there’s just no way I can bring myself to do it). Why do I it? Who doesn’t like to look at beautiful women? Am I right?

After that brief digression, and the shameless use of the feminine form to boost my readership, it’s time to hit on some players that are performing at levels that you may not have been aware of (hence the title of this piece).

Lance Berkman is 0-for-14 to drop his batting average to .282. In fact, the only month in which he has really impressed in the batting average category was April when he hit .388. Since then his monthly averages are .262, .221, .250 and .281. You shouldn’t be too surprised as the 35 year old Berkman hit .274 in 2009 and .248 in 2010.

Johnny Cueto leads baseball with a 2.05 ERA over 21 starts. This is shocking for numerous reasons, not the least of which being that Cueto came into the year with a 4.27 ERA over 531 innings (that mark of 4.27 was worse than the league average in that time of 4.17). Cueto is having this success despite a four year low in punchouts (6.22 per nine). Looks like all those extra grounders have been the key. In his first three seasons his ground ball rate was 39, 42 and 42 percent. This year that mark is about 25 percent up at 53.3 percent. Pretty amazing.

Ian Kinlser has 23 homers, 23 steals and 94 runs scored. With two more homers, two more steals and six more runs scored he’ll have produced just the sixth such season by a second sacker of the 21st first century of 25-25-100. It’s old hat for him. He did it back in 2009 when he hit 31 homers, stole 31 bases and scored 101 times.

James Loney is leading baseball, that’s not a typo I swear, with a .397 batting average the past 30 days (that’s .010 points clear of Derek Jeter). A monumental bust for nearly the durations of the season, Loney has come alive of late making it conceivable that he’ll reach his career norms in two categories you likely thought he had no chance of reaching. He’s hitting .277 and his career mark is .286. He also has nine homers leaving him a big month from hitting his average the past four years of 13.

Cliff Pennington (.272) is batting better than Kevin Youkilis (.266) this season. Speaking of Cliff, were you aware that he has been one of the most productive shortstops in baseball since the All-Star break? Pennington hsa hit .347, managed to plate 25 runs, and posted a .905 OPS over 41 games. I know, shocking ain’t it?

James Shields has 10 complete games this season, more than the total of the #2 and #3 men in the American League, combined. Felix Hernandez is second with five, and there is a list of six men who have recorded four complete games (Jered Weaver, Ricky Romero, Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, Derek Holland and Justin Verlander). All told that group has 39 complete games. That means those eight men are barely halfway to the all-time record of 75 complete games held by Will White way back in 1879. For the modern record, since 1900, the eight are still well behind Jack Chesbro’s mark of 48.

Chris Young, who coincidentally I picked up in a trade about when this slump started, is hitting .148 over the last 30 days, the worst mark in baseball. It’s not like we haven’t seen him struggle before as he hit .212 in 2009 and owns a .239 mark in his career. Still, he’s one homer and one steal away from a 20/20 season, and that would be the third time in five years he has hit that plateau so I’ll cut him some slack.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers