Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Friday Follies

Johnny Cueto was given a seven game suspension for his Bruce Lee like efforts to impale the Cardinals with his Feet of Fury (Bruce Lee was in a movie entitled Fist of Fury). Oh, and in case you have no idea what I’m talking about, Cueto tried to kick about half of the Cardinals team when the Cards and Reds fought recently. Cueto took his suspension like a man, after acting like a child, and he’ll serve the suspension without an appeal.

Chipper Jones will have knee surgery and if his rehab goes well he plans on trying to play next year. I’ll try to rehab this weekend with copious amounts of alcohol so that I can return to work on Sunday night for the radio show I co-host with Kyle Elfrink from 8-12 PM EST called the Fanball Fantasy Recap. By the way, the show is on XM 147 and Sirius 211, and you can read all about it in I’m a Star.

Joe Mauer leads baseball with a .435 batting average the past 30 days (Chris Johnson leads the NL at .432). As pointed out to me today by Kyle Elfrink, Mauer hasn’t a single homer this season at home in 162 at-bats. Mauer’s also gone deep just seven times on the year. Where are those people that called me an utter buffoon when I said before the season started that there was not a scintilla of a chance that Mauer would go deep 30 times this season after hitting 28 big flies last year? Crickets? If we remove those 28 bombs, here is what his homer totals look like since his rookie season: 9, 13, 7, 9 and 7 this year.

Felix Pie is hitting .340 the past two weeks. At the same time he has a .333 OBP as he hasn’t walked a single time in that time. I don’t know if that’s real progress or not (things like sacrifice bunts and sac hits count as plate appearances and will therefore lower a players OBP even if the players batting average is not moved by the outs generated).

Dan Uggla may have “only” 26 hits in his last 25 games (he’s hitting .283 in that time), but he has made those hits count as he has gone deep 10 times, has knocked in 20 runs and has scored 24 times. It’s been said before but it bears repeating: Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball with 4-straight years of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored. All he need is one more homer, 16 more RBI and four more runs scored to run that streak to 5-straight seasons.

Are you following me on Twitter yet at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account? If your not, and yes I’m biased, your missing out on some of the best baseball knowledge you could ever hope to find. Here are some of my favorites from today.

Casey McGehee has 73 RBI, one more than Evan Longoria.

Casey McGehee has 18 homers, one more than David Wright.

David Ortiz has seven 25 HR seasons for the Red Sox. 2nd most – tied with J. Rice – behind T. Williams (14).

Orioles considering going to a 6-man rotation to get a look at guys like Tillman and Britton.

Here comes the Panda. Pablo Sandoval in August: .349 with an .899 OPS for the SFGiants.

Sign up if you are on Twitter, you wont be disappointed. If you are you can take it up with management (which just so happens to be me).

By Ray Flowers

Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg suffers first loss, being outpitched by Brian Bannister.

(2) Edwin Encarnacion stays with Blue Jays after passing through waivers.

(3) Josh Beckett (back) improving, but unlikely to return before All-Star Break.

(4) Gil Meche (shoulder) and Luke Hochevar (elbow) hope to rejoin Royals around the All-Star break.

(5) Johnny Cueto rebounds after rough start to June.

(6) Joey Devine (elbow) shut down again.

(7) Rays to stick with Wade Davis over Jeremy Hellickson.

By Ray Flowers

What to Make of These Starters?

I was tempted to write about Brian Cushing and the whole PED issue as it pertains to football where drug use clearly isn’t taken seriously, but I have a date later tonight with a hot female friend and I didn’t want to get all worked up before it so I’ll save those comments for later in the week. Instead, I thought I would chronicle a handful of starting pitchers and give you my thoughts on whether or not they should be on your fantasy radar at the moment.

Bronson Arroyo has a 1.28 WHIP through seven starts, but that’s a dangerous number to pin your hopes on given his other numbers that include a 5.36 ERA and a 1.87 K/BB mark. In his two victories he has allowed three runs, and in his first start of the year he allowed one run to the Cardinals in eight innings, but he’s also had three outings in which he has allowed at least five earned runs making him a tough guy to roll with since you don’t know what you’re gonna get from start to start.

Luis Atilano is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA through four starts for the Nationals. Don’t be swayed by the power of the darkside though as Atilano has clearly made the same deal with Mephistopheles that Livan Hernandez has worked out. Atilano has a 0.92 BB/K mark, and while more analysis is certainly needed before pronouncing sentence on someone, he clearly isn’t someone you should be counting on even in NL-only leagues.

Doug Davis is 1-4 for the Brewers through seven starts. The good is his fantastic 8.64 K/9 mark (that mark has been 7.04 or lower in each of the past four seasons). The bad is that he s still walking everyone – his BB/9 mark is 4.86. Considering that he is giving up hits at a rate of once every three at-bats, it’s no surprise that his WHIP sits at 1.98. Even when he’s doing something right such as striking people out, he still can’t be trusted in fantasy leagues.

Kyle Kendrick has but one victory in his seven starts on the year, hardly a surprise given a 5.89 ERA and 1.55 WHIP that have led to at least four earned runs in five of his seven outings. Kendrick’s K/9 rate of 3.93 is atrocious, though it’s right on his career mark (3.92), and the resulting K/BB mark of 1.14 scream out ‘I’m in big trouble.’ When you add in six homers for a HR/9 mark of 1.47 it’s clear that Kendrick is holding on by a thread.

Nate Robertson is 3-3 in his first seven starts in the NL for the Marlins. Like the other listed above him however, I’m clearly not high on his chances of being overly successful this season. Robertson’s K/9 rate of 5.80 is below his already poor 6.09 career mark, and just like last season when he walked everyone (5.07 BB/9), Robertson has walked an average of 4.54 batters per nine this season, well above his 3.28 career mark. You simply can’t have long-term success with the 1.28 K/BB mark that he currently possesses. A large portion of his success has been derived from a career low 15.5 percent line drive rate (career 18.9) and the fact that his HR/F ratio is 9.1 percent (career 12.6). Unless he throws a whole bunch more strikes, when those last two numbers correct themselves things could get ugly in Florida.

Reds’ starting pitchers allowed five hits the past two days to the sad sack Pirates. Homer Bailey allowed four hits in a complete game shutout on Wednesday while Johnny Cueto pitched a on hitter in his shutout on Tuesday. Both hurlers warrant consideration in mixed leagues, with Cueto clearly being the more intriguing play (he has 33 Ks in 42 innings and his 2.75 K/BB mark is solid). At the same time, don’t over value what either man has done the past two days – after all they were facing the Pirates.

Finally, what do I do when I’m not sitting here at the computer banging away reports and videos on the world of sports? Of course I run night time missions that need to be filmed by infrared cameras. Think I’m kidding? Give Jed Wars – Operation Flamingo a view.

By Ray Flowers

Unsound Options

After a one day hiatus to discuss that quarterback who I shall never mention again, you know the one who has retired about 13 times over the past two years only to return to action, let’s get back to what I know best, and that is the game that is played on the diamond.

Johnny Cueto will be placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. I wonder what genius it took to figure out that he wasn’t physically “right” as his ERA has gone from 2.69 on July 1st to 4.61. That’s right, over his last nine appearances he has gone 1-6 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. Unless he suddenly morphed into a 66 year old version of Jamie Moyer, it’s pretty flipping clear he just hasn’t been right.

Zack Greinke lost his eighth game of the year on Wednesday after allowing four runs over seven innings. Greinke has been great this season with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 25 starts, but the man has only one victory in his last nine times on the hill while he has accrued five loses in that time. If you ask me, his shot at the Cy Young Award is pretty much non-existent at this point as I think he is no better than third on the list behind Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.66 ERA, 167 Ks, 1.18 WHIP). You could also make a valid argument for Justin Verlander (13-6, 3.28 ERA, 194 Ks, 1.16 WHIP) or even C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) could have moved ahead of the Royals’ hurler, so maybe Greinke is on danger of not only falling out of the top-3, but possibly the top-5.

Mets Injury Update
* David Wright (concussion) – Hopes to be cleared for action on Thursday and is eyeing a return near the end of August.

* Carlos Beltran – Running in the outfield and also took batting practice on Wednesday. Hopes to return sometime in September.

* Oliver Perez – May not make his next start as his knee is still bothering him. Maybe his sore knee threw him off balance in his last start leading to just a single walk. Hey, what else explains a measly walk for a guy who has averaged 4.31 walks per start? Maybe he should pitch hurt more often.

* Billy Wagner – Should be activated by the weekend after proving that his elbow is sound. Could be valuable down the stretch in NL-only leagues.

There are of course more Mets options I could discuss here, but I’m falling asleep typing name after name from this club so I’m gonna just leave it where it is and move on.

Jake Peavy likely won’t make that start on August 28th as the White Sox hoped – what a shock. The best case scenario is that he will return on September 2nd, or possibly in the following series against the Red Sox. This guy could turn out to be a difference maker for the Sox, but I gotta tell ya he hasn’t sold me on the idea that he will be able to contribute this season.

Willy Taveras was placed on the DL today with a strained left quadriceps muscle, and while this is bad news personally, and for those of you counting on his speed in NL-only leagues, it is likely great news for the Reds. Why do I say that? Let me count the ways. First, the man is hitting .238 with one home run, and those numbers are only acceptable if you take the hill once every five days. Second, though he has 25 steals and was on pace for a fifth straight season of 33 steals, he has seen his steal total drastically reduced from his career best total of 68 from last season disappointing all involved. Third, the man owns a .273 OBP this season. Since the league average is .334 Taveras can be said to be only 82 percent of “average” in this respect, and that is flat out awful for a man who has spent 390 of his 395 at-bats in the first or second hole in the order. I wouldn’t be worried about how Dusty Baker uses pitchers as much as I would question how the man puts together his batting order. Clearly Taveras has world class speed, but with a complete inability to get on base this season he should have been holding down court in the eighth slot all season.

By Ray Flowers