Today, I’ll take a look around MLB. (1) The latest on Carlos Beltran’s knee surgery. (2) Brad Lidge has second surgery this off-season. (3) Adam LaRoche signs with D’backs. (4) Josh Johnson wants 4 years. Will he get it? (5) Johnny Damon to Braves? (6) Joel Zumaya agrees to deal. (7) Jermaine Dye to Cubs? (8) Dodgers need starting pitching.
By Ray Flowers
Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.
The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?
Some other rumors —
Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.
After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.
The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.
Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.
By Ray Flowers
1- I rostered Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter at shortstop and middle infield for a total of $49 of my $260 dollar salary. Considering the paucity of top level talent at shortstop, I thought that it was a great idea to not only fill my middle infield spot with Jeter, an amazingly consistent force, but also to in essence “steal” a stud shortstop from another squad. Good luck rolling with Ryan Theriot.
2- I grabbed a couple of guys, on the cheap, who clearly have a shot at returning some nice value in 2010.
Corey Hart ($10) – Wait a second, didn’t Hart go 20/20 in back-to-back seasons before last years struggles? Given that he is just one year removed from said 20/20 work, and that he will only be 27 years old on opening day, I’d have to say that my Fanball co-workers missed the boat here. He may never have that truly monumental effort with his lack of plate discipline, but there is at least a 50/50 shot that he returns at least $15 in 2010, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number approached $20.
Johnny Damon ($10) – I guess everyone must have been staring at a hottie on the television when Damon’s name came up. Perhaps the guys are worried how his production could fall if he isn’t hitting at the top of the Yankees order in that great hitters’ park, but come on now. He has no upside, and will be 36 next season, but the guy has scored 90+ runs in 12-straight years and in each of the last 14 seasons he has appeared in at least 140 games – the third longest streak in the history of baseball. A safe pick if there is such a thing.
Johnny Peralta ($5) – Third base is really, really shallow this season. This isn’t a huge upside selection if you look at his ’09 numbers (.254-11-83), that is until you realize that he socked 44 homers with 161 RBI in 2007-08. He has the added bonus of qualifying at shortstop (41 games) and third base (105). Considering how late I grabbed him (my 20th pick I believe), I don’t think there is any reason to view this as anything other than a fine selection.
Vladimir Guerrero ($6) – It’s like no one realizes that he hit .295 with 15 homers in just 383 ABs. Give him 550 ABs and we are talking about a pace that would have led to a .295 average and 22 homers. If healthy, I really don’t see a reason he can’t go .300-20, though you do have to remember he only qualifies at DH.
Francisco Liriano ($2) – I know he will never again be the wunderkind who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a 10.71 K/9 mark in 2006 prior to his elbow surgery, but he could easily quintuple the cost here, and that makes him a bargain basement buy with considerable upside.
So there are my thoughts on my first 2010 baseball auction, even though we still have a month and a half left in the 2009 season.
By Ray Flowers
I finally bit the bullet and entered the Twitter world this week as BaseballGuys is now Twitter friendly. If you go to the page you can read all my brilliant one liners for the day. Here are two of my favorites from day one – one sports related, the other not so much.
“Who thought of calling dentists doctors? I can get my jaw jacked up by hitting on a gal at a bar who is there with her b/f for free.”
– I wrote that after having two fillings in my lower right jaw replaced (the old ones cracked). The good news is that I swapped out the silver for some gold. It’s not a platinum grill or anything, but way in the back there I got me some bling.
“Kung Fu Panda a workout fiend. Love the headband.”
– There is a link on the page so you can read the story about how Pablo Sandoval has dedicated himself to getting into a bit better physical shape. Here is a quote from the Panda. “The fans, I love them and want them to know I’ll always be the guy who’s working hard. I know I have to lose weight so I can play this game for a long time.”. It’s pretty crazy to think how good he could be considering (a) he was grossly out of shape last season, and (b) he really has no clue of what he is doing at the dish. After all, Pablo was second in the NL with a .330 batting average and seventh with his .943 OPS despite the issues.
THE RUMOR MILL
Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported that the Giants might be in the mix for Johnny Damon since the club doesn’t have enough dough to target high end offensive weapons such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Seems to make sense to me. After all, Damon is 36 years old, just the perfect age for a Giants organization that just can’t seem to figure out how to construct an offense.
The Mariners reportedly have some interest in uber-talented yet continually injured Rich Harden. If healthy he could be a top-10 pitcher, but we all know there is no way that happens right? He sure would form a potentially lethal 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez though.
The rumors are true with Tim Hudson – he did sign a 3-year deal to remain with the Braves. I broke down the deal and his 2010 outlook in Around the Horn. As an aside, you can read the same piece for my thoughts on what will happen to Milton Bradley.
The Royals are looking to move Mike Jacobs. Apparently, when you hit .228 with a .297 OBP teams sour on you pretty quickly. The Royals may also try and move Alberto Callaspo, potentially to the Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis. The Royals really don’t have a catcher with both John Buck and Miguel Olivo near certainties to move on (Olivo already had his option declined). In addition the Royals picked up Chris Getz to play second in the recent mark Teahen deal. All of this seems a bit odd though considering that Callaspo hit .300 with 73 RBI last season while not being eligible for arbitration until after next season.
Jason Schmidt will reportedly call it a career. His shoulder just never rebounded to the point where he was able to do anything on the hill. I’ll never forget his two year run in San Fran in 2003 (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 208 K, 0.95 WHIP) and 2004 (18-7, 3.20 ERA, 251 K, 1.08 WHIP). Until I saw Tim Lincecum pitch, I had never witnessed a Giants’ hurler who was as filthy or as potentially lethal as Schmidt.
By Ray Flowers
Which team will emerge victorious in the 2009 World Series between the Phillies and the Yankees? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on who it looks like will win this battle of two potent offenses.
OFFENSE
Phillies: The fourth highest scoring team in the regular season (820 runs), the Phils also hit 224 home runs, tied for second overall with the Rangers.
The Phils boast four 30-homer bats in Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley. Howard and Ibanez are traditional slugger types whereas Werth (20 steals) and Utley (23 steals) bring a 20/20 game to the party. The Phillies also boast two solid table setters in Jimmy Rollins (100 runs, 31 steals) and Shane Victorino (102 runs, 25 steals). There is no finer group of six offensive weapons in the game in one lineup.
Yankees: The highest scoring team in the regular season (915), the Yankees also led baseball with 244 home runs.
Like the Phillies, the Yankees boast a powerful lineup with two 30-100 guys in Mart Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Nick Swisher also went deep 29 times with 82 RBI while Hideki Matsui (28-90), Robinson Cano (25-85),Johnny Damon (24-82) and Jorge Posada (22-81) are all also members of the 20-HR, 80-RBI club. And to think, I didn’t even mention their most important player yet in Derek Jeter.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
Both of these teams can bash, and both yards are clearly made for offensive explosions. Given the depth of both lineups this is almost a toss up, but I’ll go with the Yankees who figure to have an advantage when using the DH in the Yankees’ home park for up to four games.
PITCHING
Phillies: Finished eighth in ERA (4.16), 8th in WHIP (1.3520) and tied for 12th in K (1,153) during the regular season.
Cliff Lee is amazing, and Brad Lidge has apparently figured things out at the back end of games. Pedro Martinez has also dialed back the calendar some seven or eight years. Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ can start or relieve at this point, but the key to this unit is twofold. (1) Can Cole Hamels recapture last year’s success? (2) Will that bullpen be able to get leads from the starters into the hands of Mr. Lidge, and will he be able to convert if they do?
Yankees: Finished 12th in ERA (4.26), 7th in WHIP (1.3517) and 4th in K (1,260) during the regular season.
The Yankees didn’t give CC Sabathia the keys to Fort Knox to waste away on the bench, so it looks like he might be asked to go in Games 1, 4 and 7. Andy Pettitte continues to come through in big games, and A.J. Burnett might be erratic, but the man has no-hit stuff every time he takes the mound. There are no concerns here about the bullpen as Mariano Rivera is the all-time playoff reliever, and with Joba Chamberlain on hand to help Phil Hughes to get the ball to Mariano, things are looking pretty good.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
The bullpen will likely be the difference here, and as long as the Yanks can get Hughes back on track, they have the advantage.
BENCH
Phillies: There is little depth here for the Phillies who were lucky enough to have pretty much every offensive weapon suit up for at least 130 games during the regular season. Matt Stairs will likely be called on to try and hit a ball to the moon, and Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco are also on hand for some added depth.
Yankees: When the game moves to Philadelphia, the Yankees will have a huge advantage with Hideki Matsui, an everyday slugger, able to pinch hit at a moments notice. That gives them the advantage on the road, and at home they will also be in the same position rolling Matsui as DH with the Phillies likely using someone like Dobbs, Stairs or Francisco. That’s not a favorable matchup.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
INTANGIBLES
Phillies: 5th in fielding percentage (.987).
Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.
Yankees: 16th in field percentage (.985).
Manager Joe Girardi will look to emulate his former manager, Joe Torre, and return the Yankees to the realm of World Champions.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
RAY’s PICK: Yankees in Six
I almost want to puke. In fact, I might if I was picking the Dodgers here. Still, the Yankees are my second most hated club, cue the vomit bags, and given that their player’s salary is something like the GNP of a few countries in the world, it’s hard to like the Evil Empire. However, it looks like they will win their first World Series since 2000 and their 27th overall championship.
By Ray Flowers
With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.
Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.
Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.
Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?
Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.
Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.
Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.
Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).
Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).
Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.
Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?
Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).
Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.
Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
