Top-20 RPs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Top-10 Closers for 2011 and try to explain how it is possible that two of our experts left Andrew Bailey out of their top-10.

ANDREW BAILEY

As Ted asked in his the initial report, how is it that Mike Sheets and Seth Trachtman left Bailey completely out of their top-10? I listed him at #5, so the question is, was I right or wrong? Come on, do you really think I’m ever wrong? Here are the data points that prove beyond a doubt that Bailey should be listed in front of guys like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street and Chris Perez and firmly in the top-10 for 2011.

(1) Amongst pitchers who tossed at least 40-innings in 2010, Bailey was 5th in ERA (1.47). Moreover, and make sure you are firmly planted in your seat when you read this next sentence, Bailey has the best ERA in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125-innings. Bailey’s mark is 1.70, slightly ahead of the 1.78 ERA of Al Spalding (and yes, that is the same Spalding whose name adorns sporting apparel these days).

(2) Bailey was 12th in WHIP (0.96) in 2010. Moreover, the past two seasons, amongst hurlers with at least 125-innings pitched, Bailey is #1 in the game with a base runner per nine mark of 8.16 – slightly ahead of the 8.26 mark Mariano Rivera.

(3) Bailey had a mere 7.72 K/9 mark in 2010, but amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 125-innings the past two years Bailey’s K/9 mark of 9.05 is 28th in baseball. Moreover, amongst pitchers with at least 50-saves, that K/9 mark is is 8th.

(4) Bailey has 51 saves the past two years, the 20th best mark in baseball. That number would be higher if not for two factors. First, he wasn’t the closer for the A’s at the start of the 2009 season, and second, injury limited him to just 49 innings in 2010. Still, Bailey has 25-saves in back-to-back seasons, and only 16 men have done that.

Given all that data, I honestly can’t understand how someone who choose to leave Bailey out of their top-10, unless they are going to argue that he is an injury concern. Even then, I’m not buying that argument – Bailey must be a top-10 selection at closer in 2011.

JONATHAN BROXTON

Broxton is a dominating force on the hill. In 2009 he racked up 36 saves, posted a 2.61 ERA and an otherworldly 13.50 K/9 mark. However, he had a couple of rough patches in 2010 that resulted in him losing his closing role to Hong-Chih Kuo in the second half of the season. At the same time, the 295 lbs, 95+ mph throwing Broxton still posted some dominating marks in 2010 including:

10.54 K/9 – Better than Jonathan Papelbon (10.21), Joakim Soria (9.73), Jose Valverde (9.00) and David Aardsma (8.88) to name just a few.

2.61 K/BB – Better than guys like Brian Fuentes (2.35), Chris Perez (2.18) and Brad Lidge (2.17) to name a few.

1.46 GB/FB – Better than Joakim Soria (1.37), Brian Wilson (1.28), Francisco Cordero (1.18) and Heath Bell (1.16) to name but a few.

So why the struggles in 2010?

(1) He walked way too many guys at 4.04 per nine. In each of the previous three seasons that mark was below 3.55.

(2) He was unlucky, at least that’s what I’m calling it. Broxton owns a .328 career BABIP, a mark that he had been at or under in each of the last four seasons. So how do you explain his ’10 mark of .369? Again, I go back to bad luck being the main culprit.

I could see how some of the guys on staff would pass on ranking Broxton in their top-10, I get it. I just hope that everyone holds that view heading into next season so that I can grab Broxton in the middle rounds because I have full confidence in him posting strong totals yet again in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

The Week that Was

With the Academy Awards due to be handed out this weekend, I thought I would take a break from all the face time I give myself with my video segments in Around the Horn. I wouldn’t want to make the “professionals” look bad. So today all you’ll get is my razor sharp wit through the written word.

* How great is it to have baseball games, and therefore box scores, to watch/read each day? I’m fortunate as hell to have my job, who wouldn’t want to immerse themselves in sports all day, and that point is squarely driven home when I can turn on the MLB Network at 10 AM and get the chance to watch a spring training ballgame. Priceless.

* Did you catch my recent review of the Dodgers’ third baseman Casey Blake? In case you missed it, here is a morsel to get you to click on over. “Did you know that over the past three years that Blake has hit at least .270-18-78-7… only he and Alex Rodriguez can make that claim at third base.”

* Peter Gammons came out and said that Delmon Young looked great and that he thinks he has finally figured it out. I give my thoughts on the young outfielder in Breaking Down: Delmon Young. “He is also one of just 21 guys who have had at least 400 plate appearances in each of the past three years who has hit at least .284 in each of those seasons.”

* Are you as confused as I am with all the uncapped NFL stuff? Sorry I slipped there and mentioned the pigskin. I guess it’s just a left over reflex from the recently completed season.

* Can Bobby Jenks hold down the White Sox closers spot in 2010? He’s in better physical shape and is ready to attack hitters again. Read about him in Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks? “Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks.”

* Since I slipped and mentioned football above, I thought I might as well reference my NHL Trade Diary piece as well. I tell you, I literally sat at my computer for eight straight hours the day of the trade deadline writing that piece. That isn’t hyperbole either. I literally was at the ready for about seven hours and 55 minutes as I only took about five minutes out of that time to get a few drinks (juice, not booze), go to the bathroom a couple of times, and to stock up on granola bars that I ate throughout the day. What I do for my craft. You should have seen more poor back at the end of the day. Cue the violins.

* It’s not the be all end all of pitching analysis, but did you catch my creation to measure pitchers effectiveness called Average Bases Allowed? I think it should replace WHIP in fantasy leagues, even if few agree with me.

* Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as the Yankees fifth starter? I’m already tired of the debate. Face it everyone – ALMOST EVERY HURLER WOULD BE MORE DOMINATING OUT OF THE BULLPEN. I mean seriously, how many times have you heard “…Joba loses about five mph when he starts, he just loses his willingness to attack hitters.” Um, sorry morons, he’s throwing five mph slower because he has to last for 100 pitches, not 20 like he did when he worked out of the pen. Memo to the Yankees – leave Joba in the rotation, remove the stupid Joba Rules, or just move the guy to the bullpen forever. It’s not that complicated is it?

I’m out.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Baseball: NLCS

I hate the Dodgers. Always have, always will. In fact, if I met the woman of my dreams, and I mean she was perfect, yet her one flaw was that she was a Dodgers fan — I don’t know if it would work out. I loathe that team, have since I was old enough to understand baseball, and as a lifetime Giants fan that will never, ever change. Therefore, it pained me to watch the Dodgers/Phillies game.

Pedro Martinez was flat out dealing in Game 2 of the NLCS as he held his former team, the Dodgers, to a mere two hits in seven innings of scoreless work. He may barely be able to hit 90 mph on the radar gun, but that man has a better understanding of how to pitch than about 95 percent of the men out there. Too bad the bullpen blew his effort in the eighth inning when manager Charlie Manuel called on five different arms to record three outs which they did but only after they allowed three hits, two walks and two runs. I know I bag on Manuel all the time, but really, how couldn’t I? Five pitchers in one inning? Talk about over managing.

Vincente Padilla looked great today holding the Phillies to four hits and one run over his 7.1 innings to help the Dodgers even up the series with the Phillies. Still, I can’t be the only one who found it odd that the TBS announcers kept talking about him like he was the second coming of Don Drysdale. His stuff can certainly allow him to dominate, but come on now.

Anyone else looking forward to the weekend? For some reason it just seemed like this week would never end. Kind of reminds me of a horror movie with Michael Myers of Halloween fame. Come to think of it, it’s time to pull out the Original Halloween, the one from the late 70′s done by John Carpenter, and give it my yearly viewing. If you haven’t see it you must – for my money it’s the best horror film ever made, right up there with Psycho and the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

The day after my Stephen Jackson piece, I’m still 100 percent what I wrote in Captain Jack? I Think Not.

I’m already missing daily baseball (I love the playoffs, but only one or two games a day just doesn’t cut it for me). Something about the rhythm of the game just gets to me. The worst part is opening up the paper each day, yes I still walk outside in my slippers into the cold morning air to pick up an actual paper, and not seeing box scores. As a true fan of baseball, is there another way to more closely connect with the game than to pour through copious amounts of box scores? Not only does it take me back to my youth and discussions with my father about who was better than who, it just gives me something to do when I’m eating Wheaties for breakfast. I have to pause while I wipe a tear away.

Playoff Bullpens

I want to thank John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle for pointing out the following facts. Mr. Shea noted that in the playoffs, at least this season, teams have only been as strong as their closers. Through the first round of the playoffs, the stark contrast between the have’s and the have not’s is pretty astounding.

During the regular season, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Ryan Franklin had a save conversion rate of 90 percent as each man recorded at least 35 saves. How did they do in the playoffs? They were dreadful: 0-4, 10.13 ERA, 3.25 WHIP with four blown saves in just eight innings of work. Putrid isn’t a strong enough word. Do in no small part to each man’s failures, they are all sitting at home eating Doritos and drinking Red Bull right now.

How did the four closers on the winning teams do? How about a 100 percent conversion rate on saves with a 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings.

Pretty easy to say which “position” was the most valuable one in the first round of the playoffs. Makes me long for the days when men were men and they actually pitched a full nine innings.

By Ray Flowers

Frustration All Around

I’m upset. I just watched the umpires in the Giants/Dodgers series blow, and I’m not kidding you, the fifth clear cut call at first base, ALL of which have gone in favor of the Dodgers. Sure, I’m a Giants fan, but at the same time I’m fair and will admit when the Giants get a “break.” I’m here to tell you t that they didn’t get a one in this three game series.

How pathetic is the situation in Baltimore? The Orioles continue to run Jason Berken out there despite the fact that he has been flat out atrocious. Berken lost his start on Wednesday to drop to 2-10 on the year with seven loses in his last 10 appearances. Given that his ERA is 6.63 and his WHIP 1.69, you mean to tell me that the Orioles don’t have a better option? Pathetic.

Michael Crabtree sign the damn contract the Niners have given you already. You weren’t drafted third overall, you aren’t going to get paid like you were drafted third overall, and you had best get your name on a contract before you end up imploding your rookie season completely. Whew. I feel better now that I typed that.

Remember back when Kelvim Escobar was going to help the Angels starting rotation after battling back from shoulder woes? Well that didn’t go so well as he made just one start before having to go back on the DL. Then the club switched tactics and decided it would use Escobar out of the pen. Now the club has decided that nothing can be done to help Escobar overcome that shoulder injury, and therefore KE will likely not return to Anaheim in 2009. Too bad, because when that dude is right he is flat out filthy.

Did you catch the fact that before busting out for six hits last night that Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .199 over 151 at-bats? How is that even possible for a man with that much skill?

Injury #104 for the Mets this season. Working his way back from surgery on his hip, Carlos Delgado is now suffering from a strained right oblique muscle. This setback will likely keep him out of action for about two weeks. At this point, a return in September may only be a 75-25 bet for the slugging first sacker. What was injury #103? Well it wasn’t really an injury, it was actually an illness that has taken a hold of David Wright. Apparently he was pretty darn sick. Honestly, if the Mets didn’t have bad luck, as the saying goes, they wouldn’t have any luck at all.

Jonathan Papelbon will not be available to pitch on Wednesday after recording seven outs the past two days. Papelbon has a wonderful 2.17 ERA and 28 saves in 31 chances, but he is also working on a 4-year low in K/9 (9.79) and a 4-year low in BB/9 (3.62). I’m just saying.

The A’s Cliff Pennington, starting at shortstop now that the club has sent Orlando Cabrera to the Twins, is hitting .326 in 46 at-bats with the club. Don’t expect that to continue given that his current batting average is a mere .063 points better than his minor league mark. You want further proof? His minor league SLG is .358, merely .032 points above his current batting average. Still, he is a fine AL-only option up the middle since he is nearly certain to be in the lineup everyday for the A’s.

John Lewis, a fellow SABR member, put together a rather interesting list of “where are they now” for the Pirates. In his note he mentioned that there are three, THREE, members of the Pirates July 24th, 2008 25-man roster that are still with the club: Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Zack Duke. So in little over one year’s time, the Pirates have moved 88 percent of their 25-man roster. I have no idea if that is a record or not, but I have to believe it is. Here is a list of what happened to the other 22 players.

LF Jason Bay – traded to Boston 2008
CF Nate McLouth – traded to Atlanta 2009
RF Xavier Nady – traded to Yankees 2008
OF Jason Michaels – free agency 2008
1B Adam LaRoche – traded to Boston 2009
2B Freddy Sanchez – traded to Giants 2009
3B Jose Bautista – traded to Toronto 2008
SS Jack Wilson – traded to Seattle 2009
1B-3B Doug Mientkiewicz – free agency 2008
2B-SS Luis Rivas – free agency 2008
INF Chris Gomez – free agency 2008
C Raul Chavez – free agency 2008
P John Van Benschoten – free agency 2008
P Franquelis Osoria – free agency 2008
P Damaso Marte – traded to Yankees 2008
P John Grabow – traded to Cubs 2009
P Sean Burnett – traded to Washington 2009
P Ian Snell – traded to Seattle 2009
P T.J. Beam – waivers to Toronto 2009
P Denny Bautista – to Triple-A Indianapolis
P Yoslan Herrera – to Double-A Altoona
P Tyler Yates – on Disabled List

By Ray Flowers