Draft Day Challenge, April 16

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. Welington Castillo

Napoli has started to hit, .263 the past week, and he’s actually up to 11 RBIs in 12 games. Not many have noticed that. He’s facing Ubaldo Jimenez whom he has two hits in three at-bats against in their brief interaction.

The Cubs’ backstop doesn’t have an at-bat against Derek Holland, but he has five hits in his last three games, nine hits in his last seven games, is batting .368 at home this season and .364 on the young season.

FIRST BASE
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chris Davis

Berkman has seven hits in 11 at-bats against Travis Wood. Two of those hits are home runs. Berkman has also started out all kinds of hot with a .389 batting average and 1.111 OPS.

Davis has slowed a bit the last week, he’s only hitting .294 with two homers in that time. Still, he’s got a strong matchup facing off against Roberto Hernandez of the Rays whom he has five hits (one homer) against in 13 at-bats (.385).

SECOND BASE
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jamey Carroll

Why would I suggest you start a guy who has only two hits in 10 at-bats against a pitcher (Jake Arrieta)? Check out the walk column. Zobrist has eight in 18 plate appearances leading to a .556 OBP. The hits are coming.

Carroll is boring an only someone you want to use if you are looking for a cheap play to fill out your lineup. He’s only got eight at-bats on the year, but he has had a lot of success against Jason Vargas in his career with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412).

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. David Wright

Alvarez is hitting .073 on the season. It’s even worse of late as he is 1-for-16 the past week. So start him against Jake Westbrook. Hey, history says it’s a good move as Pedro has hit .579 with two homers, eight RBIs an a 1.600 OPS over 19 at-bats in the matchup.

Wright has gone deep three times in 13 at-bats against Jeff Francis. He’s also gone 6-for-13 in the matchup with four walks leading to a .462/.611/1.154 slash line.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Jhonny Peralta

Escobar has been dreadful this season hitting .050 on the road (20 at-bats) and .098 overall. Crazy to play him I know, but he breaks out of his slump tonight against Jake Arrieta who he has seven hits, including a homer, in 16 at-bats (.438).

Peralta has seven hits in 23 at-bats, a .304 average, and he’s gone deep twice against Aaron Harang who is trying to impress his new employers in Seattle. Oh yeah, Peralta is also hitting .370 the past week.

OUTFIELD
1. Jonny Gomes
2. Andrew McCutchen

Gomes has five hits in 12 at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez who isn’t exactly tearing it up this season. Two of those hits for Gomes were bombs, and he’s knocked in five runs too.

McC has nine hits in 22 at-bats with a big fly and four walks against Jake Westbrook. Andrew is hitting .409 with a cool .500 OBP. Nice.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Chris Capuano
3. Doug Fister
4. Dan Haren

Griffin faces the Astros. That’s always a good reason to start a guy. He also has been very good at home in his career with a 4-0 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have also been averaging 10.1 batters per nine innings this season.

Capuano has a 3.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 mark in 70 innings against the Padres. The Padres are also hitting just .206 against lefties this season.

Fister has allowed a .212 average, .236 OBP and .346 SLG in 52 at-bats against the Mariners. He’s also allowed just one homer and walked one batter. Add in that he has a 2.77 ERA in two starts this season, and you’ve got yourself a solid starting option tonight.

Haren faces a Marlins team without Giancarlo Stanton. Haren has also struck out 10 batters, without issuing a single walks, in his nine innings this season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jonny Gomes

Jonny Gomes had a strong season for the Athletics in 2012 as he hit .262 with 18 homers, 47 RBIs and 46 runs scored in just 279 at-bats. Thinking that effort, in such an abbreviated campaign might lead to riches, Gomes decided to leave the Bay Area where he was born (Petaluma) and went to school (Santa Rosa Junior College) for the greener past pastures of Boston as the Red Sox game him a two year deal for $10 million (reportedly double the amount of cashola that the Athletics were said to be offering). Will the just turned 32 year old, his b-day was on Thanksgiving, be able to justify that outlay of cash the next couple of seasons?

Jonny, I lost the “h” somewhere in transit, is a power hitter. How on earth would I say that about a guy who last hit 20 homers and never more than 21 in a season that began back in 2003? Per 500 at-bats, Gomes averages 26 homers for his career, a solid mark, that is augmented by an average total of 78 RBIs. However, Gomes has failed to ever reach 90 RBIs or 26 homers in a season because of one salient fact: he just doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well. Given that the majority of pitchers are righties, that’s a problem. It’s also the main reason that Gomes has reached 400 at-bats in a season just one time in his big league career (511 in 2010). Here are the numbers.

2012
vs. lefties: .299/.413/.561 in 164 ABs
vs. righties: .209/.324/.391 in 115 ABs

This is far from a one year issue. It’s always been the way it has been.

Career
vs. lefties: .284/.382/.512 in 934 ABs
vs. righties: .223/.307/.425 in 1,712 ABs

Some perspective. Given his career numbers he is basically Chase Headley against lefties and Mark Reynolds against righties (at least their 2012 version). Clearly he is best utilized in an environment that would play to his strengths, and that would be sitting against the toughest righties, an in fact, sitting against most righties. This situation kills his fantasy value cause it’s not like the Red Sox are unaware of his massive lefty/righty splits. That means his production from last season should be looked at as the expected level of production (don’t simply think to yourself if the Sox gave him 550 at-bats this coming season that he would hit 35 homers with 95 RBIs and 95 runs scored). To that end, here are his homer and RBI totals, normalized to 350 at-bats for his career: 18 homers, 54 RBIs and 54 runs scored. Last season, remember, his totals were nearly spot on with those marks (18-74-46). Honestly, Gomes only should be drafted in AL-only leagues in 2013, at least if you are planning on him being a player of note, because it’s not like the Red Sox aren’t going to bring in another quality body to platoon with him in the outfield (I still believe this despite the fact that this report in the Boston Globe says the Red Sox have “big plans” for Gomes). If Gomes does get 500 at-bats he will provide plenty of power, but I’m not remotely sold on that happening as I just wrote.

The move to Fenway should help Gomes to beat extra base hits around Fenway Park. Last season Boston was 10th in baseball according to Park Factors in the homer category, light years better than O.co Coliseum (the dumbest stadium name in pro sports?). Fenway was also a doubles haven ranking first in baseball (27 percent higher than every other home ball yard) while O.co (the stupidest names in pro sports?) ranked 27th. As for run scored, Fenway Park was again near the top of the list at third best in baseball while O.co (the lamest name in pro sports?) ranked one spot better in doubles than homers, 22nd. Will that be enough to offset the lack of at-bats that are likely headed his way? Of course not, but it certainly sets up well for Gomes to be a very effective hitter per plate appearance.

Speaking of his work at the plate, the guy might own a poor .244 career batting average, but he gets on base pretty well with a .334 OBP, some .090 points above his average (if he was a .270 hitter the relative difference would lead to an OBP of .360). Too bad he’s also a whiff machine who strikes out once every 3.19 at-bats or roughly once a game in his big league career. That lack of an ability to put the bat on the wall has led to a 0.37 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the big league average, and a key indicator that he may not hit even the league average unless he is heavily rested against right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox signing of Gomes was a good move. Did they overpay? Probably, but it was only a two year deal and the Sox have the money to overpay for a part-time player whereas other organizations do not. Note the key phrase of “part-time player.” The Red Sox aren’t stupid. They aren’t going to try and save a few bucks and run Gomes out there as their everyday corner outfielder and give him 550 at-bats. History has shown that would be a mistake with Gomes. Since the Sox are intelligent about the way they put a team together, and since they have the funds necessary to add parts to their roster as needed, you would have to think that another outfielder will be signed to take the at least some of at-bats against righties away from Gomes. Throw in a middling batting average, and no more than eight steals in any of the last five seasons, and you should have all the reasons you need to avoid the line of thought that Gomes is going to be a fantasy beast in mixed leagues. If by some odd chance the Red Sox don’t bring in another bat then my line of thought would change and there could be a 30-90 season in the cards (note I used the word “could” not likely), but there’s just no scenario that I can foresee that has him as anything other than an end game fantasy add for mixed leaguers in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 10: Did We Learn Anything?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Clay Buchholz (+112, $339,000 in Daily JoustSalary)
He’s got a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the last time he was worth anything in the fantasy game was 2010. Still, the seeds of improvement are here. Over his last three starts he has allowed four runs and four of the last five times out he’s allowed two or fewer runs. A big key? He’s reigned in the walks with only four in his last three starts. Still, I’m not a huge fan. I just don’t like his overall game.

Jonny Gomes (+24, $79K)
The guy has power. He has five homers this year in 107 at-bats, and dating back to last season he has gone deep 19 times in 418 at-bats. At the same time he has hit .211 in that time – he’s hitting .215 this year – though he does have a rather impressive .333 OBP given his lowly average. He’s nothing more than a depth option in AL-only leagues since he’s really not a very good hitter against right-handed pitching.

Ian Kennedy (+97, $329K)
Kennedy has allowed a total of one run in his last two starts as he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13.2 innings. Kennedy was never going to match his performance from last year (21-4 record). Wasn’t gonna happen. Still, his K/9 rate of 8.44 is up from last season (8.03) while his BB/9 rate is the same at 2.26. Honestly though, he’s pitched pretty similar to what he offered last year (xFIP was 3.50 last year, this year it’s 3.86).

Miguel Montero (+19, $84K)
Montero has two homers and seven RBI over his last five games signaling that perhaps he is finally on the cusp of returning to the hitter everyone thought they were drafting this year. A season after hitting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBI, Montero’s power is way down (four HR) while his average is also lagging (.249). I still believe he could be the hitter he was last year the rest of the way. Time will tell.

Wei-Yin Chen (+89, $264K)
He’s pitched well in his first 11 big league starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Still, his K/BB is 2.32. His GB/FB is 0.90. His BABIP is .283. His HR/9 is 0.94. The end result? That’s a whole lot of league average numbers isn’t it?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Dexter Fowler (-25, $91K)
Hitting .281 with a .382 OBP, people are starting to get a wee bit nervous with Fowler after 9-games without a homer and nine Ks in his last four games. Perspective people. Has he been cold for a week? For sure. Was he insanely hot the week before? You know this. He’s on pace for a 20 homers, 75 RBI, 90 run, 15 SB season. Hold fast.

Mike Moustakas (-19, $75K)
Hitting .273 with a .336 OBP, Moose has been solid but not great. The nine homers and 28 RBI put him on pace to be a top level option at third base in the power department, but he’s also hit only one homer in 10 games, and in 54 at-bats against lefties he has a .583 OPS. Still has a ways to go, but a solid start.

Ivan Nova (-74, $219K)
He’s 8-2 and he has a rather amazing, for him, 69 Ks in 77.2 innings (his 8.00 K/9 mark is more than two an a half batters above his career rate entering the year). He’s also allowed just one run in 15 innings over his last two starts. At the same time he’s got a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and he’s allowed five or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts and his ground ball rate is on the decline (52 percent his first two seasons down to 47 percent). Tread carefully.

Bud Norris (-49, $182K)
On May 25th Norris had a 3.14 ERA. Now? That number is 4.65 as he has been blown up for 16 runs over his last three starts (12.1 innings). Obviously he’s struggling to get batters out at the moment, but he’s also struck out 18 batters in that time so he’s still providing some value. He’s likely not a 3.14 ERA guy, but I also don’t think he’s a 4.65 guy either.

Buster Posey (-20, $75K)
Hitting .290 with a .810 OPS, Posey is just about back to the hitter he was in 2010 when he took the Bay Area by storm. Still, that’s if we look at his overall game because after hitting .353 in April he’s hit a mere .256. He’s a legit .290 hitter though, so don’t expect his average to fall much further.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April14, 2010

(1) Is Jonathan Sanchez more valuable than Clayton Kershaw?

(2) Closer mayhem – what about SOLDS?

(3) Denard Span struggling, still walking.

(4) B.J. Upton showing life.

(5) Jason Kendall and Ryan Sweeney have hitting streaks.

(6) Jorge Cantu making history.

(7) Jonny Gomes continues to pound the ball.

(8) Jimmy Rollins placed on DL.

For more about the numbers of the game make sure you give the following two articles a read:

By The Numbers – Hitters

By The Numbers – Pitchers

By Ray Flowers

April 8: Baseball Notes

I’m all over the place today, but what better way is there to be when you want to read about everything that is fantasy related in the first week of the baseball season?

The average price for a major league ticket went up 1.5 percent this year to $26.74. That number pales to what is happening in Minnesota where the new stadium, and Joe Mauer’s $184 million deal, have helped lead to a 45 percent jump in ticket prices over last year to $31.47. The cheapest average ticket in baseball belongs to the D’backs, In addition if you are a fan of the NL West you’re in good shape – two of the six teams in baseball that saw their ticket prices go down for 2010 are the Padres (15.4 percent) and Giants (1.8 percent).

Bronson Arroyo allowed one run over eight innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. You may want to sit down before you read this, but according to Stats Inc., since July 10th of last year Arroyo has the best ERA in baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 100-innings at 2.01.

Frank Francisco blew the Rangers game on Thursday as he picked up a blown save and the loss as he allowed the Jays to score three times. Earlier in the game Neftali Feliz needed 13 pitches to strike out the side in his lone inning of work. It’s way too early to be talking about a changing of the guard in the 9th inning, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind.

The Yankees have been estimated to be worth $1.6 billion. You’ll only need to sell the Pirates ($295 million) five times to get close to that number.

Jonny Gomes had a walk-off homer on Thursday. Reds, please give this guy 500 at-bats. If you do, I can almost guarantee that he’ll sock 30 dingers.

Ian Kinsler is starting to make me nervous. He had a second cortisone shot today, meaning his goal of getting back on the field by mid week next week may or may not happen.

Victor Martinez likes hitting early in the year before his body gets beaten up from the rigors of catching. In April, his career batting average is .321 with 19 homers and 77 RBI in 126 games.

Don’t look now, but Magglio Ordonez has a 16-game hitting streak dating back to last season, and he has produced at least two hits in 6-straight outings. Adding his 7-for-14 start this season to his work from his last 28 games from last season nets you a .446 average. I don’t care if he hits as many homers as Juan Pierre if he can stay within 25 percent of that mark. Hell, over his last 63 games he is batting .383. Astounding.

Speaking of Mags, care to see my thoughts on the Tigers for 2010? You can also see a really serious picture of me if you click on the link to Tigers’ 2010 Season Prediction Roundup.

Vernon Wells hit his fourth homer of the year on Thursday to become the first Blue Jay in history to hit four homers in the first three games of the season. Wells hit only five homers in his final 64 games last season.

Dontrelle Willis allowed two runs over six innings on Thursday and hit 93 mph on a couple of fastballs. There is a caveat, it was against the Royals, but he walked only two batters – a very positive sign. I highly doubt he will be fantasy relevant in ’10, but it would certainly be a great story for baseball if he was.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.22, 2010

(1) Johnny Damon finally signs with Tigers: 1-year, $8 million.

(2) Jonny Gomes signs with Reds.

(3) Mets – Jose Reyes to hit third, Carlos Beltran to miss April?Former Met Carlos Delgado has second hip surgery.

(4) Khalil Greene out in Texas. Will the Mike Lowell trade to be revisited?

(5) Rich Harden hopes to make 180 innings with Rangers.

(6) Alfonso Soriano dealing with knee – he is concerned.

(7) Brian Roberts – is his back injury serious?

By Ray Flowers

What is My Value? – Pt.II

I’m always fascinated by how people evaluate player worth on a weekly basis. Therefore, I’m always interested to see the weekly recaps of free agent bidding in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or the NFBC. These leagues are made up of 15 teams with 30 person rosters, so there is always a lot of prospecting going on each week as people are basically forced to pick up players, in most cases, that they hope will be able to help them in the future because very, very few full time players are on waivers at one time (therefore, anytime someone has a big week, you can almost be certain they will be a hot property). Here is a review of some of the players that were rostered off waivers this past weekend. Listed are the range of dollar figures for each guy based on a season long budget of $1000.

Note: I did this same thing about a month ago, and you can give that review a look by clicking on the link to What is My Value?

John Bowker – $1 to $54
People are hoping that Bowker continues to hit like he was in Triple-A (.347-17-63 in 285 ABs). That work hasn’t remotely carried over as he is hitting just .190 with seven Ks in 21 ABs with the G-men. Could be some wasted dollars here.

Mike Fontenot – $7 to $35
Qualifies at second and third, and he has been hot in July hitting .333 with a .837 OPS in 45 ABs. Still hitting only .239 overall and he has seen his BB/K mark has dipped from 0.67 last year down to 0.44 this season.

Ben Francisco – $1 To $42
Though he is hitting .302 the past three weeks, he is just 4-for-27 of late (.148) making me questions the logic of those that picked him up.

Ryan Hanigan – $1 To $67
Ramon Hernandez will miss at least four weeks with knee surgery, so Hanigan should be in the lineup pretty much every day. In his 251 at-bat career Ryan has hit .303 with a strong .395 OBP along with a 0.83 BB/K mark. Still he has no pop with only three home runs and has just 19 RBI.

Troy Glaus – $1 to $22
Shoulder may not allow him to play third, so the club has been working him out in the outfield. If he shows he can make the throws, he could be activated next week and be in the lineup on a semi-regular basis with the way that Tony La Russa manages his club.

Jonny Gomes – $$12 to $42
Hitting .304 with six home runs in 102 at-bats. Since playing more regularly of late he is just seven for 32 (.219).

Gio Gonzalez – $1 to $25
I pray that those that picked up Gio didn’t have him active for his start as he was bombed, and that is being kind, as he was flambéed for 10 hits, three walks and 11 runs while recording just eight outs.

Jim Johnson – $1 to $15
Save speculation. With George Sherrill possibly on his way out of town and Chris Ray still working his way back from injury, Johnson would likely become the ninth inning ace thanks to his 3.05 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Danys Baez could also be in the mix if he isn’t traded.

Mat Latos – $11 to $179
Decent first appearance allowing two runs in four innings as he walked one and struck out four. Padres will likely be very careful with his innings pitched count so even if successful he may not pitch deep into September.

Jason Schmidt – $1 to $105
One his first start since 2007. Schmidt struggled to hit 87 mph with his fastball, certainly not a positive sign pointing toward future success.

Seth Smith – $17 to $91
Rockies say they won’t trade him because of his locker room presence. He has 12 hits in his last 30 ABs (.400) but likely will not get enough playing time to be of much use in mixed leagues.

Tim Stauffer – $5 to $49
Continually injured, he is healthy now and has been quite effective in his two starts posting a 2.08 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP with 11 Ks and only two walks. The quintessential “flier” pickup.

By Ray Flowers