Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

The Braves dealt Tommy Hanson to the Angels in exchange for reliever Jordan Walden. Yes, the Walden that opened the year as the closer for the Angels last season. With the Angels adding Ryan Madson they felt they could deal the hard throwing right-hander (Walden didn’t have a great season last year, but don’t forget that he saved 32 games in 2011 and that he owns a 10.83 K/9 mark over 123 big league games). The Braves now possess, arguably, the top-foursome of any pen in baseball: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty and Walden. With the way the game is played these days, have an elite bullpen seems to be as important as having an elite starting rotation. But this piece is about the tall righty who at one point was looked at as a potential top-20 starting pitcher in the fantasy game. What should we make of the flailing Tommy Hanson?

As a rookie Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. In his second season he passed 200 innings while posting a 3.33 ERA. In his first three seasons his WHIP was 1.18, 1.17 and 1.17. So happy times ahead, right? Well, not so much. What that data leaves out is that Hanson tossed only 130 innings in 2011 as healthy woes started to mount. Last season his ERA skyrocketed to 4.48, his WHIP went into the stratosphere at 1.45, and he posted a four year low in BB/9 (3.66) and K/BB (2.27). What went wrong with Hanson? His shoulder wasn’t 100 percent. The result was a loss of three mph off his fastball from 2010 to 2012 (92.7 to 89.7 mph). The loss of velocity caused him to nibble more driving his pitch counts up. As a result he made 31 starts but was only able to last 174.2 innings. To compare, in 2010 he made three more starts but hurled 28 more innings.

If you can’t tell, let me just spell it out. Hanson, previously one of my favorite young hurlers in the game, makes me nervous. When a guy who is this young (26 years old) has these kind of issues, the red flag goes up. I’ve written previously about Hanson and his somewhat odd mechanics (I wrote about that issue back in February of 2012 in The Old, The Young and The Pretty). I always felt that a potential land mine in his development was that wonky mechanical issues he has where he seems to be fighting his body a bit as he comes over the top in a rather disjointed movement. Was the mechanical issue a reason for his struggles with health in 2012? That certainly seems possible. Whatever the issue, unless he is able to reclaim those lost three mph his outlook isn’t getting any better any time soon.

Numbers wise, here are some of the concerns.

Last season his ERA was 4.48. His first three seasons that mark was 3.28.
Last season his WHIP was 1.45. His first three seasons that mark was 1.17.
Last season his K/BB ratio was 2.27. His first three seasons that mark was 2.89.

You could argue that even with those struggles that he still posted a 1.01 GB/FB (career 0.99), a 74.1 left on base percentage (career 74.9) and that his ’12 numbers in line drive rate (20.7) and HR/F (13.5) were virtual matches for his ’11 numbers (20.5 and 12.5). I would counter with this. Since July 15th of 2011 Hanson has made 36 starts that have led to the following numbers: 14-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio over 201.1 innings. Since the middle of the 2011 season Hanson hasn’t even been a league average hurler.

A young pitcher struggling with health, coming off his worst season, moving to an unfavorable league and one who is likely to see a massive increase in salary as he heads to arbitration makes Hanson a certain risk to take on for the Angels. There should also be plenty of concern the the fantasy game with Hanson. All of the negative points I made in this piece are valid concerns. Given the overall down turn in his work last season, and the fact that he’s averaged just 152 innings pitched the last two years, you had better think long and hard about making him anything other than your 4th starting pitcher in mixed leagues, and that might even be a bit optimistic. I’m off the Hanson train for now. He’ll have to prove to me that he can be successful before I elevate him back onto my target list.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

RELIEF PITCHER: MISSES

Do I really have to do this? I’m going to look like a buffoon listing all the misses. At least misery has some company here as pretty much every other preseason rankings list you will look at will be filled with just as many, more if I may be fair, misses as injuries an ineffectiveness killed the position this year. Never seen anything like it actually.

Players who were injured:

(#4) Mariano Rivera
(#7) Brian Wilson
(#9) Andrew Bailey
(#10) Sergio Santos
(#13) Drew Storen
(#25) Kyle Farnsworth

This group of arms threw a total of 88 innings in 2012. Last year that six-some saved a total of 202 games, an average of 34 per man. This year they totaled 18 saves.

Just plain misses:

Heath Bell (#8): I should have listened to myself when I was ranking relievers. Here is a direct quote from my Player Profile for Heath Bell writing on December 19, 2011. “Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract?… there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season… but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.” Shame on me for not trusting, well, myself.

Brandon League (#14): He lost his closing job with the Mariners and was eventually dealt to the Dodgers as he fell from 37 saves to a mere 15. His walk rate exploded causing his K/BB ratio to fall from 4.50 in ’11 to 1.64 in ’12, and that was a huge reason his effort tanked, not to mention that his GB/FB ratio, while damn impressive at 2.19, was well below his 2.80 career rate. Looks like the Dodgers are planning on him being their closer after giving him more than $22 million for three years. Sorry Kenley Jansen, who apparently has lost the gig despite being the second most dominating pitcher in baseball the past two years (Craig Kimbrel).

Jordan Walden (#19): The Angels always have a strong closer, so it was fair to think Walden would fill that role given that he saved 32 games in 34 chances in 2011. Walden finished 2012 with one save as he never rebounded from a slow start an injury. His 11.08 K/9 mark was impressive and he actually upped his K/BB ratio from 2.58 to 2.67 despite his failings in 2012. By the by, Ernesto Frieri was the dominating Angels’ arm as he had 23 saves, a 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP an a 13.36 K/9 mark over 66 innings (11.2 of those innings were with the Padres).

Jim Johnson (#32): The major league leader with 51 saves, only the thirteenth 50-save season in baseball history. I can rest comfortably knowing no other expert worth a salt had Johnson ranked much higher than I did. Johnson actually had three year lows in K/9 (5.37) and K/BB (2.73), but thanks to some luck and a massive 2.93 GB/FB ratio he just got batters out. Don’t expect a repeat in 2013.

Mark Melancon (#40): Ghastly. Putrid. Pathetic. Choose your adjective. Melancon was hideous in April allowing five homers and 11 runs in his first four outings (49.50 ERA, 6.00 WHIP). He actually pitched  better later in the year posting 28 Ks an a 1.18 WHIP over his last 29.2 innings, but the damage was already done. At least I was right about Alfredo Aceves (see his multiple blow ups, 10 loses and eight blown saves).

Rafael Soriano (#59): I was the conductor of the David Robertson train this year, and he performed very well (2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.02 K/9). After Rivera was hurt Robertson was installed as the Yankees’ closer. Unfortunately, an injury then also struck Robertson opening up the door for Soriano. Rafael not only stayed healthy throwing 67.2 innings, he also performed as if he was channeling Rivera with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 42 saves in 46 chances. If only Robertson hadn’t gotten hurt…

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: October6, 2011

Relief Pitcher Review

(1) Jose Valverde 49-for-49 in saves.

(2) Craig Kimbrel dominates before late season letdown.

(3) Kenley Jansen historically good when it comes to strikeouts.

(4) Look how many closers came out of nowhere in 20211: Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon.

By Ray Flowers

Diamond Musings

You got a chance to see my beautiful mug earlier today in Around the Horn – Slow Starts . Now you’ll get a chance to also be bored by my written word.

Alex Gordon has looked great so far justifying the Royals decision to bat him third in the lineup (I still think it’s a bad idea, but for now it’s clearly working). Through that massive sample size of 24 at-bats, Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS as he has scored six times and knocked in three runs through five games. Have the Royals actually, inconceivably, done something right? They have have here, but…

Luke Hochevar was the #1 pick in the country in 2006, and since then he has been a monumental bust. Completely miscast as the Royals’ opening day starter, Hochevar owns a career ERA of 5.61 and a 1.46 WHP over 399.1 innings. He also owns a poor 5.97 K/9 mark and an equally unimpressive 1.95 K/BB ratio. I know the Royals took Hochevar first overall in 2006 because of cost and signability concerns about others in the draft, but look at some of the other first round arms that were taken that year: Brandon Morrow (5th overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Max Scherzer (11th). Now you know why the Royals stink year after year. Let’s give them at least some credit. It’s not like the Rockies (#2 – Greg Reynolds) or Tigers (#6 – Andrew Miller) used their picks wisely either (in retrospect of course).

I got an awful lot of flack from people about having Howie Kendrick ranked so highly this year in the Baseball Guys’ Top-300. It’s only been five games of course, but early returns are very positive as he is hitting .429 with three bombs and six runs scored. He continues to fatten up against the Rays who he has absolutely demolished in his career to the tune of .443/.483/.722 slash line over 97 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 15 while scoring 20 times in those 26 games. Yowzah.

Help me out here Angels. You head into the year with Fernando Rodney as your closer. Everyone tells you it’s a bad idea, I think even the Rally Monkey could have told you that, but you pushed on anyway going with the veteran who saved 37 games in 2009 for the Tigers. So what happens? Rodney goes out and makes two appearances and loses the job? He did walk for guys in 1.1 innings, but honestly Angels, what did you expect? I simply can’t fathom why a team would bail on a player after two games. I’m sitting here castigating people for wanting to abandon ship in the fantasy game, telling them to remain patient, and you go and do this? Fantasy gamers who drop players after a week are stupid. A major league team that demotes a player after a week is monumentally misguided, and that’s being overly kind. So what happens when Peter Bourjos goes 1-for-13, will he lose his job? If Scott Downs returns from the DL and allows runs in three straight outings will he be released? I don’t see how this move helps anyone on the team – all it does is instill fear in the players that they’ll lose their job at the first sign of adversity. Jordan Walden takes over in the 9th inning by the way, and with his dominating stuff he is a must add in all leagues if he’s still sitting on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: April 5, 2011

Photo by Keith Allison

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

Everyone is still in love with Morales, and I’m just not sure I understand why that is. I know Morales has posted a 5×5 line of .284-28-94 per 162 games in his career, and that in his last full season that he hit .306-34-108 (2009). Still, the guy hasn’t played in a big league game since last May, and he still isn’t 100 percent with his leg. Don’t get me wrong, I think he has a solid chance to be effective once he returns to full health and shakes off the rust, but I have no faith that will occur at any point in April.

Huff gets no love despite finishing 2010 in 7th place in the NL MVP vote. Did anyone notice that he hit one more homer than Adam LaRoche (26 to 25), had three more RBI than Prince Fielder (86 to 83), scored 13 more runs than Ryan Howard (100 to 87) or that he posted a better OPS than Mark Teixeira (.891 to .846)? Or how about the fact that Huff has hit at least 20 homers in seven of the last nine years and had at least 85 RBI in six of the last eight years? Or how about the fact that Huff qualifies at first base and in the outfield?

Add that all up and I want Huff over the uncertainty of Morales.

Who do you prefer – Adam Jones or Jose Tabata?
– @oomyjosh

Adam Jones has produced nearly identical totals the past two years.

2009: .277-19-70-83-10
2010: .284-19-69-76-7

While that seems like a good thing, it really isn’t. The reason for that is that Jones posted nearly identical totals in 2010 despite 102 extra plate appearances, so his rate of production fell precipitously. Also in the negative column is that his walk rate was cut in half leading to the third BB/K mark below 0.25 over the last four years for Jones. It’s pretty darn difficult to have consistent, long term success when you have such poor control of the strike zone.

Tabata’s game is his wheels, and unlike other players with similar skill sets – I’m talking about you Carlos Gomez – Tabata gets it. Jose posted a 2.42 GB/FB ratio last season beating the ball into the turf and using his wheels to chug out the hits. Obviously that means he will fall well short of the power production of Jones, but the corollary is that Tabata should at least double, if not triple, the steal total of Jones. Another plus derived from his speed and ground ball tendencies is that his batting average could continue to push .300 as it did last year when he hit .299.

If you need speed Tabata would be a nice fit. However, I’m still going to say you go with Jones. His ability to be a five category contributor still exists, and if he just gains a modicum of patience at the dish he could conceivably be a top-25 performer at the outfield position. After all, he is just 27 years old.

Brian Duensing or Brandon Beachy?
– @saleemthedream

Duensing gets it done. Over 214.2 innings in his career the lefty has posted strong ratios (3.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) despite a less than scintillating 5.49 K/9 mark. Duensing is able to generate a lot of ground balls, 50 percent of batted balls in his career, which helps to offset his poor K-rate and less than big league average 1.98 K/BB mark. However, Duensing is much more Jake Westbrook than he is Francisco Liriano, and though he might have a long and successful big league career he simply doesn’t profile as a hurler who has much chance or replicating his ratios from last year (2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) or one who is destined to be a fantasy ace.

People love rookies don’t they? After Beachy allowed just one run while racking up seven Ks in six innings in his first start, the love for Beachy is at an all time high. Still, let’s be fair to Beachy here. First, the kid has all of 174.2 innings above Single-A ball. Normally that wouldn’t be too much of a concern, but up until 2008 Beachy was primarily a hitter so it is an issue. That’s not a lot of experience on the hill. Second, while his stuff is good, it’s not at the elite level. He does possess three solid big league pitches (fastball, curve, change up), and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters which should serve him well. Once the Braves rotation is back to full strength – i.e. Jair Jurrjens returns – Beachy will likely be looking over his shoulder ever time he struggles with Mike Minor looming.

I’d take a shot on Beachy who has the old upside tag going for him, though Duensing wouldn’t be a horrible fall back option.

What are your thoughts on Chris Narveson? Worthy of 10 team mixed consideration?
– @patrickmccurry

I’ve been touting Narveson as a great late round add for months now (Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought). Narveson isn’t overpowering, but that didn’t stop him from having a wonderful run to the finish last year posting strong totals over his last 14 starts – 5-3, 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.33 K/9 an a 2.75 K/BB mark. All of that means that Narveson profiles as a solid depth add in deeper mixed leagues or NL-only setups. However, he’s likely stretched as starter in a 10-team league, so in that setup you should be able to do a bit better.

Jhonny Venters or Jordan Walden? I already have Mariano Rivera and Chris Perez, so I’m looking for depth.
– @bambam12093

It looks like the Braves have settled on Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning leaving Venters to handle 8th inning work which would seem to cap his fantasy upside in the short term. Still, Venters has been an absolutely dominating force during his brief big league career of 85.2 innings – 2.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.77 K/9 and an amazing 4.35 GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). You’ve heard me say it before if you paid any attention to my work – the ideal combo with a pitcher is one who misses bats and one who generates tons of grounders. That’s Venters in a nutshell.

Walden has a slight advantage in the fantasy game in that the closer on his team – Fernando Rodney – is terrible. That would seem to move Walden much closer to working the ninth inning. The Angels do have other options to handle the 9th – don’t forget about Scott Downs who is nearing a return from a foot issue – but Walden’s early season work this year is drawing rave reviews (five of his seven outs have come via the strikeout and he owns a 14.26 K/9 mark over 17.2 big league innings). When your average fastball is 98 mph, people tend to notice.

At this point the better pitcher is likely Venters. However, with the uncertain 9th inning of the Angels,  the better short term fantasy pick up is Walden.

Hot Stove: December 13, 2010

A couple of players have decided where they will be plying their talents in 2011, while a few others seem to be nearing an end to the saga of where they will play in the coming campaign.

Scott Downs: The ace lefty reliever left the cold of Toronto for the warmth of Southern California when he signed a 3-year, $15 million deal with the Angels. Downs has been a wonderful reliever since the start of the 2007 season with some rather impressive numbers that Zack Greinke would be proud to call his own – 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 7.80 K/9 over 236.2 innings. Downs is also a dominating force against any left-handed batter with a career .223 batting average against portsiders. Simply put, he is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Is this signing a prelude to the Angels also adding power-armed Rafael Soriano as many thought? The answer would appear to be no. It turns out the Angels are likely done spending on their bullpen and will instead go with a bullpen by committee in 2011. “If we need one or two guys at times to get the last out, we’re going to do it but I don’t think the committee’s going to be very large,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. Fernando Rodney would appear to be the leader in the clubhouse for the spot, though if the matchup dictates we could easily see Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden and Mr. Downs working the ninth inning.

Matt Garza: This impressive right-handed arm is apparently up for auction, and the Cubs are looking at picking up the impressive righty. Why Garza over another available righty, Zack Greinke? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out in Gauging the Value of Garza vs. Greinke, the reason the Cubs, or any team, would be more interested in Garza is the fact that he is in a more financially agreeable position with the end result being he will be paid, over the next three seasons, about what Greinke will make over the next two. Garza also has five playoff starts in his career – Greinke has none – and Matt has pitched very well when the pressure has been on (2-1, 3.48 ERA), and you know teams love to see success in the second season. Both pitchers are solid options who have pitched well the past three years. Here are the numbers for 2008-10.

M.Garza: 34-31, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.32/BB
Greinke: 39-32, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.74 K/BB

Either one would be a tremendous coup for whichever team acquires their services. From an on-field assessment Greinke would appear to be the better hurler, but in terms of the dinero it will take to sign their checks the next three years the more prudent course of action would be to pull the trigger on Garza.

Bill Hall: The Dodgers appear to be in the lead for his services with a report suggesting that they would even make him their starter in left field against right-handed pitching. For the Dodgers sake let’s hope that report was inaccurate. There might even be a bidding war on the horizon as the Astros too are interested in adding the versatile Hall. To think, all a guy has to do is hit worse than the league average (.247), never get on base (.316) and always strikeout (more than 30 percent of the time) to get paid millions of dollars to play professional baseball. These teams do realize that Hall has hit .225 with a .687 OPS over his last 1,082 at-bat don’t they? The versatility he brings is nice, and he does have some pop with 41 homers over those 1,082 ABs, but there is no way you can legitimately make the argument that he should be an every day player on a club that hopes to make the playoffs.

Brendan Ryan: No longer needed in St. Louis after the Cards brought in Ryan Theriot, Ryan was dealt to the Mariners for RHP Maikel Cleto. Ryan, widely regarded as a plus defender, Ryan hit a mere .223 with a sickly .573 OPS lasts season in more than 430 at-bats for the Cards (perhaps the wrist injury that required surgery was more of an issue than he let on). In a career of more than 400 games in the bigs, Ryan has hit .259 with a .658 OPS, though at least he has flashed some speed (39 steals). Can he hit enough to play everyday? The jury is still out. What we do know is that he will be given a chance to earn a starting job either at second or short for the Mariners. Here is what this move means for the Mariners.

(1) Chone Figgins will likely move back to third base this season. This is a great bonus since he will obviously qualify at second and third, as well as middle infield and corner infield, in fantasy leagues. He hit an awful .259 but he still stole 42 bases in 2010, so bump him up in your rankings a bit with this news.

(2) Dustin Ackley is going to have to impress in spring training to make the club. Despite a strong AFL effort that ended up with him taking home league MVP honors (he led the league in average at .424, OBP at .581 and SLG at .758), Ackley isn’t going to be handed a starting spot at second base, he is going to have to earn it. If Dustin doesn’t prove he belongs, Ryan will play second base.

(3) If Ackley proves capable of handling the rigors of second base and major league pitching, Ryan will then compete with Jack Wilson for the starting spot at shortstop. Wilson was no better than Ryan at the dish hitting .249 with a .598 OPS, and injuries limited him to 193 at-bats. He still plays decent defense, but why wouldn’t the Marinres go with the younger Ryan if everything else was equal?

As for Cleto, the 21 year old has hit 100 mph on the radar gun, but he had a terrible 6.16 ERA in Single-A ball last season and is one of those “projects” that teams simply take a flier on in case it comes together. “Cleto has a power arm,” GM John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back-of-the-bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

In closing, for continued updates on the machinations of the world of baseball make sure you follow the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

By Ray Flowers