Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jordan Zimmermann

You know that this article is about the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann so I can’t play my game of ‘Who am I?’ Instead I’ll just start out this review of the young righty by listing some numbers that explain just how effective he was in 2012 for the NL East Champs.

Zimmermann had the 7th best ERA in the NL in 2012 at 2.94. That surpasses the marks of guys like Cole Hamels (3.05), Cliff Lee (3.16) and Madison Bumgarner (3.37). Moreover, since the start of the 2011 season, among hurlers who have tossed at least 350 innings, Zimmermann’s ERA of 3.05 is the 13th best mark in all of baseball. He’s an ERA ace during that time.

Zimmermann had the 11th best WHIP in the NL last season at 1.17. Moreover, since the start of the 2011 season, among hurlers who have tossed at least 325 innings, Zimmermann has posted a WHIP of 1.16, the 16th best mark in baseball. He’s a WHIP ace during that time.

That’s a pretty good start to speaking to the value of a guy in the fantasy game, is it not?

One factor that has held back Jordan’s value somewhat in the fantasy game is his low wins mark. In 2011 he made only 26 starts as he worked his way back from Tommy John Surgery. He won just eight of those 26 starts. Last season he upped that start mark to 32 and saw his win total swell to 12. Still, his total of 20 victories the last two years is one less than teammate Gio Gonzalez won last season. Moreover, those 20 wins mean 59 big league hurlers had more victories that last two seasons. Admittedly, not very exciting. Still, his arm is healthy and that should lead to even more innings moving forward which should increase his chances at picking up W’s though it should be noted that the Nats were EXTREMELY diligent about limiting Zimmermann’s innings in 2012. He may have made 32 starts but he was never allowed to pick up more than 21 outs (he threw exactly seven innings nine times).

Among that same group of hurlers (min 350 innings pitched), Zimmermann’s K/9 mark of 6.98 since the start of the 2011 season is just 36th. It’s not an awful mark by any means, but it’s far from the type of total one would normally assign to a fantasy ace (153 Ks in 195.2 innings, his marks from 2012, are solid but earthshaking). On the flip side of that coin we find a hurler who is pretty adverse to four wide ones leading to a free pass. He’s not just anti walks, he detests them with a passion. In our group of starting pitchers his mark of 1.87 walks per nine innings the past two years is an elite total that has him inside the top-10 (seventh best actually). Put that sold K/9 mark together with an elite BB/9 mark and the result is a 3.74 K/BB ratio the past two years, the 11th best mark in baseball. Nothing to dislike about that at all.

Perusing the other usual suspects for pitchers yields some so-so information. For his career his 9.3 HR/F ratio is pretty league average (his career 0.90 HR/9 mark is slightly below league average). His 1.16 GB/FB ratio is slightly better than normal, though it should be noted that in three of his four seasons that mark has been 1.28 or higher (it was 0.94 in his first year back from surgery, 2011). Putting aside the one outlier we’d be looking at a number like 1.32, and that would be a bit more exciting (duh). In each of the past three seasons he’s allowed a batting average against in the .250′s, hardly a shock for a guy who owns a career .255 mark. His xFIP has been unchanged the past two years at exactly 3.78 (his SIERA has only changed by a tenth from 3.70 to 3.80). Playing into the belief that it will be hard for him to repeat his sub three ERA of a year ago is the fact that his left on base percentage of 79.3 percent his a significantly high number (nearly five points better than his career mark). Some slightly regression here will likely lead to an increased ERA in 2013.

Zimmermann is not an elite pitcher. I don’t worry about the win-loss record, we all know how variable that can be, and h’s also proven the last two years that he will do nothing to damage you in the ratio categories either. The data would seem to hint at a slight increase in ERA though, even if his WHIP remains stable, and with a lack of an upper echelon strikeout pitch Zimmermann seems primed to be what he has been the last two years – an extremely attractive, high level SP3 option in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July24, 2012

(1) Ryan Dempster traded or not?

(2) Ichiro now in Big Apple after trade from Mariners.

(3) Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante sent to Detroit for future ace Jacob Turner.

(4) Colby Lewis done for year – elbow surgery.

(5) Justin Smoak sent to Triple-A.

(6) Roy Halladay shaky.

(7) Jordan Zimmerman/Ryan Vogelsong = money in the bank.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June14, 2012

Each week on Thursday I’ll answer questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What order would you have Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson in a 5×5 points keeper league?
– @butlertj2002

Zimmerman posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and he’s picked right up where he left off with a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Extremely consistent, Jordan hasn’t allowed more than four runs in an outing this season, has permitted one run in half his starts 12 starts, and he’s lasted at least six innings every time he’s taken the hill. Why the success? One of the main reasons is that he just doesn’t beat himself. After walking a mere 1.73 batters per nine last year he’s dropped that number even further down to 1.51 per nine this year. If he can keep up that rate, and somehow hold on to the increase he’s working on in the ground ball rate from last season (his GB-rate is up to 52 percent) not much will likely be able to slow him down.

Moore has disappointed many with his 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but that’s because, frankly, expectations were too high with the rookie. Things are looking up though. In five of his last six starts he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs as his ERA has come down more than a run as he’s finally appeared to lock himself in on the hill. It’s not all lollipops and candy corn’s, he’s walking an unacceptable 4.33 batters per nine innings and he’s giving up a whopping 1.44 homers per nine innings, but there is still a lot going on here to really like, including the 9.31 K/9 rate that neither Hellickson or Zimmerman will ever be able to match.

Moore’s teammate, Jeremy Hellickson, has way better ratios than the power lefty (2.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but I’m still searching for a  real explanation as to how he has been so consistent since the start of last year. You hear a lot about the Rays solid defense and how Hellickson has changed how he throws his curve ball, but at the end of the day his success falls outside the realm of traditional analysis. Still, over his last 41 starts he has gone 17-12 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and that’s mighty impressive in the AL East. However, that inexplicable nature that I touched on can been seen in the following categories. Over those 41 starts his K/9 is 5.77. That’s well more than a batter below the league average in that time (7.04). His BB/9 is 3.45 and that’s worse than the league average (3.10). His left on base percentage is 83 percent, well above the league average of 70 percent. His GB/FB ratio is in the 0.80 range well below the league average of about 1.10. His BABIP is in the .230′s, light years from the .290-300 range that the league average usually fits in. The bottom line with Hellickson is that he doesn’t strike out enough batters, walks too many and is below league average in his ability to induce grounders, yet somehow he never gives up the amount of hits he should and he’s able to strand runners at a rate that we’ve rarely seen over the last 25 years. We’re going on two years of that middling work in some rather major categories and still he’s posted impressive numbers, but at some point doesn’t that run of inexplicable performance have to end?

All three hurlers deserve to be kept in most keeper leagues, barring some unforeseen bounty of Verlander’s and Lee’s on your squad. Moore has the biggest strikeout arm of the mix, and therefore the highest upside in the fantasy game. Zimmerman throws more strikes that Hellickson and it’s easier for me to explain why he has success, so he goes number two. Hellickson therefore comes in third, but that’s like finishing third for Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition cover – he’s still hotter than the overwhelming majority of pitchers in the big leagues.

Drop Dexter Fowler to get Trevor Plouffe?
– @kangashark

This world is all about what have you done for me lately. Think about it. When the Apple iPhone XXIV comes out you know you’ll drop your old model, even though it’s working totally fine. When that new LED flat screen came out, did you give away your plasma television? When Kate Upton burst on the scene with her ample assets did you drop your previous love for… wait, that one makes sense. Getting back on topic…

Fowler hit .239 in April and people hated him.
Fowler hit .333 in May and people loved him.
Fowler has hit .235 in June and people no longer trust him.

Take the case of Plouffe.
He hit .121 in April and was dropped in AL-only leagues.
He hit .185 in May and was dropped by his mother in AL-only leagues.
He has hit .400 with six homers in 10 games in June and people think he’s the next fantasy superstar.

So how would I play this? Plouffe has two main advantages over Fowler. (1) He qualifies at third base and shortstop in all leagues and in the outfield in most leagues. That versatility is tremendously valuable. (2) He has more power than Fowler. In 465 career at-bats the former first round draft pick has 21 homers. On the flip side, Fowler has a couple of significant advantages over Plouffe. (1) Fowler has way more speed than Plouffe has his steal total of six this season doubles Trevor’s career mark. (2) Fowler will never win a batting title but his worst month this season, .239 in April, is still better than Plouffe’s career mark (.228). (3) Fowler simply has the better all-around fantasy game. It’s been an uneven ride to this point but Fowler still has the look of a guy who could go hit .270 with 20 homers, 70 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals (his current pace).

I wouldn’t begrudge anyone adding/riding Plouffe while he is this hot, but I wouldn’t drop Fowler in order to make that happen.

Matt Wieters or Carlos Santana the rest of the season?
– @rangersjayfilm

Wieters posted a blistering .937 OPS in April but saw that number tank faster than the rapping career of Vanilla Ice with a .605 mark in May. He’s rebounded in June with a .830 mark but alas his .760 mark overall is .018 points lower than last season. On a positive level, Wieters 0.50 BB/K rate is a match for his level the past two years, and his 1.11 GB/FB ratio is spot on his mark from last season (well, it’s 0.01 off). Wieters also owns a line drive rate that is just 0.7 off last year’s level, his BABIP is down a mere .007 points while his HR/F ratio is 0.2 points up. Given that it’s hardly surprising that his current pace (23 homers, 70 RBI, 70 runs) is nearly identical to what he did last year (22 homers, 78 RBI, 72 runs).

Santana has failed to live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon his shoulders this year as he was often taken first off the board at the catchers position. After hitting 27 homers last year he has only five in 51 games this year. He’s also on pace to fall well off said pace with 24 runs scored (he crossed the plate 84 times last year). Heck, his batting average is down .012 points to .227 and his SLG is actually down an even .100 points (his .357 mark is just barely ahead of his .351 OBP from last season). His BB/K rate remains strong at 0.76, and his line drive rate is up at 21.5 percent (it was a mere 15.4 percent last year). Oddly, even though he’s hit liners at a substantially increased rate his BABIP has only gone up .011 point to .277.

In a dynasty league, these might be the top-2 options in the game behind the dish. As for the rest of the year, I’m going to toss my support behind Santana because he qualifies at two spots (catcher, first base) and because he has a better approach at the dish, but there really isn’t a wrong answer here (to see how others view these two catchers see Fleaflicker’s catcher rankings).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 7, 2011

(1)  Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.

(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.

(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.

(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.

(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 3rd, 2011

(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.

(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.

(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?

(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.

(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.

(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?

(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 14, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to some questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I’m solid in the power categories but need steals and runs. Should I trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury?
– @mushinske

Clearly you’ve got a deal here that would meet your needs.

Ellsbury has been his old dynamic force this season as his body is finally healthy. Jacoby has easily been a top-10 overall performer given his 5×5 line (.318-7-33-49-24), pretty much the same situation that existed in his last two healthy seasons of 2008 and 2009 (his 2011 totals are projections).

2008: .280-9-47-98-50
2009: .301-8-60-94-70
2011: .318-17-83-124-60

He won’t hit 17 homers this season, it’s not likely at least given that his current HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent (the mark was 7.0 and 4.6 percent in 2008-09). He’s also striking out more than ever before with a 17.0 percent whiff rate (career 13.6 percent) and it’s hard to fathom that he will be able to keep up his current LD-rate (25.5 percent) and BABIP (.362). Still, as long as he stays healthy it’s not difficult at all to envision him matching his level of performance from 2008-09.

Howard is well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI season with 13 bombs and 53 RBI in 65 games. Howard has gone 30-100 each of this five full seasons in the big leagues, so it doesn’t take much analysis to suggest another such season appears to be in the cards. On the negative tip though, Howard has 11 steals in his career and hasn’t hit .280 since 2006. In the land of titans, that being the first base position, Howard is always a fine option, but his production doesn’t stand out if he is hitting 35 homers with 120 RBI versus the level of production he offered from from 2006-09 (4-straight years of 45-136).

Given your needs I give you my blessing to consummate this deal, though I wont be giving you a 20.5 carat ring like Kris Humphries did when he popped the question to Kim Kardashian.

Is there any way I should drop Yunel Escobar for J.J. Hardy who’s been heating up lately?
– @mattromeo

Escobar has battled the injury monster a couple of times this year, but he’s appeared in 61 of 66 games for the Blue Jays as he has re-established himself as a bona fide big league hitter after last years el floppo (.256-4-35). He’s already hit more homers this season than last, he has seven, and his total of 24 RBI is just 11 behind his putrid total from last season. Escobar was hitting .300 a few weeks back but he’s slumped to .129 in 31 June at-bats. Still, he’s third at the position with a .360 OBP and his 38 runs place him sixth, and he’s on pace (I know how everyone loves “pace” talk) to end the year with a line that looks pretty similar to what he has done in the past.

2008: .288-10-60-71-2
2009: .299-14-76-89-5
2011: .277-17-58-93-5

Escobar’s currently drawing more walks than ever before (11.4 BB-rate vs. career 9.6 percent), and his line drive rate is a mere 12.8 percent (career 18.1), so it would seem very reasonable for you to expect Escobar to continue along at his current rate of production, especially when he starts lashing a few more line drives.

Hardy hit 50 homers and posted 154 RBI in 2007-08 as one of the most powerful shortstops in the game (he was second at the position in homers and third in RBI). However, a variety of injures hit him the past two seasons as he averaged just 108 games player per year. Over those 216 games he hit just 17 homers while knocking in 85 runs as his production fell off the proverbial map. Injuries have once again limited him this season, he’s appeared in just 36 games, but the old power stroke is back as he has six homers and 19 RBI.

I don’t question the skills with Hardy. His BB/K rate, line drive rate, HR/F, BABIP — all of that is pretty standard fair for him when you compare his current numbers to his career rates. He is hitting a few more fly balls and a few less grounders which has helped aid the power output, but the concern over his health is what eats at me.

I’d keep Escobar. I have more faith in his ability to stay on the field than the oft-injured Hardy.

Scott Baker or Jordan Zimmerman going forward?
– @cstarlodi

It’s like everyone is all of a sudden coming to the conclusion that these two guys are both pretty good hurlers. In March when I released my Top-100 Starting Pitchers I had Baker at 53 and Zimmerman at 54. It may not seem like much now, but back then I got a lot of push back on those rankings. Obviously I’m not surprised that they have had success this season.

I get daily question about Baker, a fact I mentioned this in a piece yesterday titled Pointing Out the Obvious, and I’m not sure why that is. Baker is currently sporting a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers but still not career bests (he had a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and in 2008-09 his WHIP was 1.18 and 1.19). He is sporting a career best 8.39 K/9 mark, a batter plus over his career rate (7.19), and though he’s never posted a mark over eight before, he does have the skill to sustain this level. He is walking more batters than ever before  (2.47 per nine), but his K/BB ratio is 3.39, just off his 3.37 career rate, because of the strikeout boost. The rest of his pitching line is pretty standard stuff for him which means solid production all-around.

Zimmerman started a bit slowly, especially in the strikeout column, but he has really turned things on his last eight outings during which time he has 47 Ks in 51.2 innings. With only 11 walks in that time his K/BB ratio since the start of May is an excellent 4.27, and check out his ratios – 2.26 ERA an a 0.99 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. His fly ball rate is a bit elevated this season though he’s been able to offset that fact with his HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. He’s not likely to keep that up given that his career mark is right on the big league average at 9.5 percent, so that ERA could climb a bit, but this is a stable/strong skill set.

So who would I prefer to have on my roster? I’m going to suggest going with the veteran in Baker. Not only do we have a bit more of a track record with him, we also don’t have to worry about his innings pitched total being capped later in the year, a fact that any Zimmerman owner will have to deal with as the Nationals try to limit the workload on their young start who is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 24, 2011

photo © 2009 David Berkowitz | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you expect Dan Uggla to come back to life?
– @EadlRosa

Let me repeat my oft head comment about Uggla, though apparently I haven’t said it enough as people continually send me notes about giving up on Uggla. In each of the last five seasons, the only five seasons he has been in the majors mind you, Uggla has hit 27 homers, had 88 RBI and scored 84 runs. In the history of baseball, as long as they have been playing the game, no second baseman can match that streak. Ever. In fact, no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years. That doesn’t mean that de facto Uggla will get there again this year, it’s merely meant to illustrate his historically excellent consistency. I’m going to trust those five years over 49 games of poor performance in a Braves uniform this season when trying to determining the value of the 31 year old second baseman.

In terms of his current performance, his K-rate has been at least 25 percent each of the past four years, and he’s currently at 21.1 percent. However, he just can’t hit em’ where they ain’t. His current BABIP is .197, and that’s only .098 points below his career mark. He could pull an Aaron Hill, we saw what that meant in 2010 for the Blue Jays’ second baseman, but the odds are strong that Uggla will rebound the rest of the way.

Kevin Youkilis for Ike Davis and Dan Uggla in a 6×6 league with OPS?
– @RyanSchwep

Youkilis was injured an ineffective in April only to break out in May as he’s hit .338 with a 1.027 OPS and 17 RBI in 19 games. That run of games has upped his numbers back into the pantheon of third basemen (.275-8-32-29). Like Uggla, Youkilis is exceedingly consistent as he has hist at least .288 with a .390 OBP in each of the last four seasons. When you toss in his eligibility at first and third base, you have a player who is clearly a difference maker. In addition, because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has posted an OPS of at least .958 each of the past three years, and his mark of .964 from 2008-10 is the best mark in the American League and second in baseball (Albert Pujols, 1.074). To compare Uggla, who I mentioned above, doesn’t possess the ability to hit for an average or to get on base like Youkilis, and the best single season OPS of his career is .877.

Davis is out with an ankle issue. He has resumed some baseball related activities, but he still hasn’t begun running yet (the hope is that he could return late this week). There is always risk adding a player coming back off injury, especially so when that player has all of 652 big league at bats. I’m not going to sit here, and yes I do type these reports sitting and not standing at my homemade bar (this Manhattan is pretty good actually), and say that Davis is overrated, but I think people are a little ahead of themselves in terms of their expectations. Though he’s hitting .302 this year, he did bat just .264 last year. He’s still striking out in a quarter of his at-bats, and yet again has a below average line drive rate (17.0 percent). At that level, it’s pretty tough to posit a continuation of his current .344 BABIP. The power is legit though.

I’d keep Youkilis. He is the best player of the three, and even though I’m a big fan of Uggla’s, there’s just no way he, or Davis for that matter, will be able to match the elite level OPS of Youkilis.

I just traded Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman in a keeper league. Is it a good move since I needed pitching help?
– @redskinsp

Walker he been one of the better hitting second baseman in the game so far this year (.276-6-30-28-2). Unfortunately he’s striking out a bit more this season, nearly a quarter of his at-bats, and his ground ball rate is up eight percent this year (44 percent). Neither of those numbers are scary by any means, but both would seem to cap his ability to be an elite option in average or the home run department. Basically, he’s been slightly more effective at going deep this year, thanks to a 40 percent increase in his HR/F ratio, while  pretty much maintaining many of the levels he posted last season. If he is able to hold on to what he has shown over his last 155 big league we’re likely looking at a top-10 player at second base.

Zimmerman is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Nationals are being careful limiting their prized righties innings when possible. After a slow start to the year in the K department, Zimmerman has been bringing the heat in his last three starts racking up 22 Ks in 18.2 innings. He’s also tossed 4-straight quality starts the last four times he has taken the hill. Jordan has also limited the walks to two or fewer in each of his last eight starts, a great sign since pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery often struggle to locate their pitches. A youngster like Walker, Zimmerman has a 8.10 K/9 an a 3.12 K/BB ratio through 176.2 career innings, and numbers like that lead to a lot of success.

Both players are solid building blocks in a keeper league. While Walker will likely be very good, Zimmerman has a shot at being a top-25 starting pitcher option moving forward. Given your stated need of pitching help, I’d feel completely comfortable in making this deal.

The rest of the way… Erik Bedard or Madison Bumgarner?
– @Lintyfresh85

I’ve said this probably 46 times the past three months – when healthy, Bedard is really, really good. However, as we all know, he spends as much time sipping a pina colada as he does climbing onto the bump. Bedard tossed 81 innings in 2008, 83 in 2009 and zero in 2010. He’s up to 45.2 this season, so you have to ask yourself, how much faith do you have in him taking the ball every five games?

Bumgarner is 1-6 so he’s pitched pretty poorly this season. Wait a second, that isn’t true at all actually. Though he has only one victory, each of the last five times he has taken the hill he has produced a “quality start” leading to a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.50 K/BB ratio.

Let’s compare the two directly. Here are their 2011 numbers.

E. Bedard: 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB
Bumgarner: 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, 1.68 GB/FB

Both are left-handed.
Both are pitching well of late.
Both pitch in great pitcher’s parks.

Do you want the up and comer in Bumgarner or the slightly more skilled, but infinitely more volatile Bedard?

As much as I love the skills of Bedard I just cannot trust him to make 30 starts, so I’d go with the Giants’ lefty.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.