Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Photo by Steven Boyd

 

I’m continually asked a few questions over and over again.

What should my draft strategy be?
Which “sleepers” should I target late in drafts?
Which setup man will become a closer this season?
How can you give away such great information for free?
How is it possible that you’re still single?

I always have answers for those questions, at least the first four anyway, but there is a sixth question that I get all the time as well – which pitchers should I target on draft day after the top mound aces are off the board? That’s what I’m going to breakdown in this entry.

I’ve already touched on this topic previously, so I’ll quickly highlight those pieces before digging a bit deeper today.

The Strikeout: Relievers
This article breaks down the top relievers in 2010 based on K/9 marks.

The Strikeout: Starters
This article breaks down the top starters in 2010 based on K/9 marks while also delving a bit deeper by adding into the mix how a pitchers’ walk rate also needs to be looked at as well.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010 (clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are).

How to Evaluate Relievers
This article gives some hints as to what type of skills you should look at when deciding which bullpen arms to roster.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, which pitchers racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00? Clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are.

THE RULES

Here are the “rules” that I try follow when drafting pitchers.

STARTERS
Target at least a 6.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.30.

RELIEVERS
Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.

There are certainly plenty of examples of pitchers who have success despite missing on one, or both, of those baselines, but if you’re asking me the optimal way to put together a pitching staff, then those are the marks I would be shooting for.

What does this mean in practical terms? It means that I would never reach for any of the following hurlers: Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Carl Pavano, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Fausto Carmona, R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe or Randy Wells.

To be clear I’m not saying that there aren’t situations in which I would still call out these pitchers names – i.e. in a league specific scenario or very late in a mixed league draft – but there’s no chance I’m gonna target them to be one of my top four starters in a mixed league, and no, I don’t care how good they were last year.

At the other end of the spectrum here are some hurlers who I would look to call out at the end of a draft, even if they don’t seem to be as stable an option as the names I just listed. Remember, there will always be “average” guys on waivers in mixed leagues. I’m going to target high upside arms late, an if they flame out I’ll just grab one of those above guys to fill out my rotation.

Jorge de la Rosa: A dominating power hurler who has a a 8.95 K/9 mark since joining the Rockies in 2008, DLR’s issue is an inability to stay healthy and to locate his pitches at times. Given his K per inning rate the past three years, and the fact that he is a ground ball hurler, I’m willing to cut him a wee bit of slack even though his BB-rate is terrible at 4.12 per nine. Still, I’d rather take a shot on his ceiling than call out the name of a guy like Jon Garland.

Jhoulys Chacin: Like his Rockies’ teammate, Chacin dominated hitters with the K posting a 9.04 K/9 mark, but he also allowed far too many walks at 4.00 per nine. However, he also keeps the ball on the ground like DLR, and K’s plus grounders usually equals a lot of success – even in Colorado.

Bud Norris: This Astros’ hurler was 10th in baseball last year amongst pitchers who threw at least 100-innings with a 9.25 K/9 mark. He does come with a lot of risk though. First off, he often can’t throw strikes (4.51 walks per nine), and second he could always be moved back to the bullpen because he really doesn’t have very good secondary stuff. I’m still greatly intrigued by that power arm though.

Homer Bailey: A star prospect who was going to break through what, each of the last three years, it might finally be his time. Bailey posted a strong 8.26 K/9 mark last season with a 3.30 BB/9 rate, not to mention that he was able produce a 3.55 ERA an a 1.27 WHIP over his last 10 starts.

Jonathon Niese: I don’t think there will be many leagues this year where he will be taken before Pelfrey and Dickey, but I see no reason why that should be the case. Niese was really good last year until a final month meltdown when he wore out from his heavy workload (his ERA was 3.76 on Sept 18th before finishing at 4.20).

Chris Narveson: I’ve written about him before, but in case you missed it, did you realize that over his last 14 starts last year he had a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.33 K/9 mark with a 2.67 BB/9 rate?

Travis Wood: Rookies who post a 7.54 K/9 rate and a 2.28 BB/9 mark should certainly grab your attention, especially when the back of their ball card says that they were a 2nd round draft pick hinting that it’s not unreasonable to expect there to be enough talent to sustain that level of production.

Let me repeat my oft-heard refrain: TARGET SKILLS AND NOT ROLES

In the long run you’ll end up ahead if you follow this mantra. You’ll just have to target the right skills and have the patience to allow things to develop.

By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

Can't Get Enough

I love baseball. In fact, I often find myself dreaming about the game. I stare at spreadsheets all day, sometimes wind up with a sore back from being hunched over the keyboard all day, and find myself constantly checking my fantasy squads for up to the minute results even when it is clear just how my team will finish in the standings. I know, I’m addicted. Luckily the season is almost over – though of course that doesn’t mean I won’t still be pouring over stats all offseason in search of those little tidbits that will make all the difference in 2010. Here are a few of my observations for Monday.

Matt Cain won his 14th game of the season on Sunday, this after picking up three straight loses during which time he allowed a total of 15 earned runs over 14.1 innings, and yes, that’s more than one run per inning folks (9.42 ERA). I’ve said it all along that Cain has just been lucky this season, though it’s not like I really wanted to see that prediction come to fruition down the stretch when the Giants really needed him to make a playoff push. Here are some numbers.

2009: 7.03 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 0.93 HR/9, .265 BABIP
Career: 7.51, 2.08 K/BB, 0.80 HR/9, .277 BABIP

So, for the 13th time, don’t expect Cain to continue to roll along with an ERA of 2.88 next season, not unless he really turns around some things on the hill. Look for that ERA of his to be much closer to his career 3.53 mark in’10, though that would still leave him as a valuable member of any fantasy staff (just don’t reach on him).

Can you believe it?Jorge de la Rosa has 16 victories with one start left. If he manages to pull out the win, he will tie the Rockies single season record of 17.

Andy LaRoche had five hits on Monday, including two bombs, leading to six RBI against the Dodgers. That gives LaRoche 12 homers and 61 RBI in 499 ABs this season, to go along with a .259 batting average. So much for that breakout season he was supposed to have after producing strong numbers in spring. The breakout star for the Pirates has actually been Garrett Jones who has 21 homers and 10 steals, not to mention that he has hit .301 in his 292 ABs. If you predicted that one, you can have my job. Wait, I’m not willing to give up my job, you can have one that belongs to one of my co-workers.

Mike Lowell had another one of those Synvisc injections into his hip with to help lube up the joint for the playoffs. It hasn’t been a season to remember for Lowell, but really, is anyone going to complain about a .290 average, 17 homers and 75 RBI in just 438 ABs? If he picked up 589 ABs, as he did in 2007, that rate would leave him with about 23 homers and 101 RBI, and who wouldn’t take that from a third baseman who also hit .290? Exactly.

Brandon McCarthy continues to operate on the fringe of relevance. McCarthy, long hampered by injuries, owns a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season through 16 starts. Things have gotten even better of late as he has posted a 3.45 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over his last five starts. He isn’t someone to count on, and he certainly doesn’t deserve any attention in mixed leagues heading into 2010, but if you are in an AL-only league there are certainly worse flyers to take a chance on late in your draft.

Do you like it when athletes do those funny commercials? If you do, and you are a hockey fan, give the new Joe Thornton Commercial a watch. Good to know that he has a job because this new line of work wouldn’t be too profitable based upon how he did in the commercial.

By Ray Flowers