Mailbag: August 9, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I receive questions on a 24 hour basis. Here are some of those questions and my thoughts.

I have to keep two: Jeremy Hellickson, C.J. Wilson and Justin Masterson. Which two stay?
– @BradfordEra

Ah, gotta love those shallow leagues.

Hellickson has a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his rookie season as he has been as good as advertised. Unlike other rookies, he is showing no signs of fading either as he has allowed two runs in his last two starts and three of fewer in each of his last eight outings. In fact, seven of those eight times on the hill have produced a “quality start.” There is no reason to turn away from him at this point.

Wilson bounced back in his last outing with nine Ks and two earned runs allowed after getting lit up for 10 earned runs (13 total) in his previous two outings. He’s been pretty uneven of late permitting four or more earned runs four times in his last nine starts while in the other five he’s allowed two or fewer. Still, he has 29 Ks in 29.1 innings over his last five starts, and despite the two shelling his ERA is a palatable 3.99 in that time.

Masterson has been on quite a role as well. Over his last 10 starts he has lowered his ERA from 3.18 down to 2.63 as only once has he allowed more than four runs. Moreover, he’s actually allowed as many as four earned runs only twice in those 10 starts. He’s also been locked in when it comes to throwing strikes as he has walked a total of 11 batters in those 10 outings.

So who do you drop? None really. All are pitching well and all sport solid skills that speak to the ability of each to carry on the solid work they have offered to this point. If pressed to drop one I’d move on from Masterson, but as you can tell, I’m really not a fan of doing that.

I Lost Chase Headley/Daniel Murphy/Adrian Beltre to injuries …need a 3B…Casey McGehee, Danny Valencia or David Freese?
– @IsabelTrent

That’s about as bad a run of luck as anyone could possible fall in. Brutal.

Do you want to add Freese given your lack of luck? Freese is expected to return to the Cards lineup on Tuesday from a concussion that he suffered Thursday last week. He should be fine, but given your run of injury, do you have the stomach to add Freese? If you do you would be adding a guy who is batting .320 this year and one who owns a .308 career mark in 465 at-bats. The guy can hit no doubt, even if his power reminds you more of Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt.

Valencia has quietly been a solid run producer this season. Danny has 12 homers on the year, just one less than Alex Rodriguez. He has 58 RBI, the same total as Evan Longoria. He has 42 runs scored, the same total as Chase Headley. There are negatives with Valencia, chiefly his .242 average and .287 OBP, but he has been moving the arrow there as well of late. Since the start of July Valencia has hit .291 with a .319 OBP. OK, the OBP is awful, but the .291 average is much more like the rookie who hit .311 last year in Minnesota.

McGehee was great in two thirds of a season in 2009, and last year he posted 23 homers and 104 RBI. He was going in the top-10 at third base in almost all drafts this season. McG then proceeded to hit .218 in May and .177 in June as he hit one long ball in 51 games. Unbelievable. However, he’s awoken of late with 12 RBI in his last 10 games, and with that big three homer game on August 3rd he caught everyone’s attention. I would add Valencia here. However, if you don’t mind rolling the dice when you could end up crapping out, Freese would be an intriguing add batting behind Berkman, Holliday and Pujols in St. Louis.

Is Jesus Montero worth grabbing for cheap in a league that keeps 10 players now?
– @Trevorpace24

The short answer is yes, add Montero. As for the reasons, there are a couple that really stand out..

First, Montero will one day be a middle of the order bat on a championship level team. He’s always flashed an elite level stick, and scouts will tell you that the ball just jumps off his bat. Now he’s had some issues with concentration and focus this season, and it’s not like his numbers at Triple-A jump off the page (.289-11-51 in 90 games), but you can just see the potential oozing out of his pours.

Second, the Yankees offense has a black hole right now at designated hitter. Jorge Posada has been filling the role for much of the season, but it’s time to face facts – he just hasn’t gotten it done this year with a .231 average, a .309 OBP and a sickly .372 SLG  How does that line compare to his career levels? Atrociously – .273/.374/.474. Posada has also gone 27 games without going deep, and during that time he has all of four RBI. He’s also hitting a mere .103 against lefties on the year (58 at-bats), and he has looked totally lost on the road (.173/.254/.276 with two homers). If not for all the offensive fireworks going on around him this year in New York his failings would be more front and center. Moreover, a report Monday in The Journal News says Posada’s rope may have finally run out.  “[Manager Joe Girardi] said he was going to put the best lineup on the field, and he doesn’t know when I’m going to DH again,” Posada said. “So right now I’m sitting on the bench.”

The supposition is that Montero could be called up from the minors to take over the bulk of the designated hitter duties. Even if Montero doesn’t play a major role this season, adding him in a league that protects 10 players is a good idea. Catcher eligible players who can blast 25 homers are rare, and in a worst case scenario Jesus would have a whole lot of value if you wanted to trade him. After all, everyone loves rookies almost as much as they love those Yankees.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Better Than You Thought

photo © 2009 Ron Reiring | more info (via: Wylio)

It’s sunny outside, congressman Anthony Wiener is finally resigning over “Weiner-gate”, and the San Francisco Giants are in first place. All is right in the world. Well not quite, but I’m gonna try to stay positive today in the face of the horrendous actions of those people in Vancouver who decided to act like Neanderthals last night after the Canucks fell to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup finals.

Chad Billingsley hit a new low last night allowing seven runs while making it through only four innings. That pathetic effort came on the heels of a 4.2 innings, six run outing on June 10th. Moreover, Chad has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts to drive his ERA up to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.52. If he didn’t have his name, he’d likely be on a whole lot of waiver-wire’s this morning. That’s being positive? Wait, it gets better, I promise.

Should you dump him Billingsley because of his recent stretch of failure? I say no. The easiest way to understand why I say that is to look at Billingsley’s xFIP (figured the same way as ERA, it takes into account those factors that are directly in the pitcher’s control while normalizing for a league average home run rate).

2008: 3.58
2009: 3.99
2010: 3.67
2011: 3.65

Billingsley is pitching the same as he always does, it’s just not showing up in the results. If you don’t believe xFIP, look at these numbers.

2011: 2.11 K/BB, 1.44 GB/FB, 0.61 HR/9
Career: 2.10 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 0.66 HR/9

I’m not saying if you own him you should continue to run him out there right now as he is getting pounded, but hold fast if you can. This obviously means Chad is a wonderful hurler to try and buy low on if you’re looking to bolster your pitching staff.

How the mighty have fallen. Did you see that the Angels released Scott Kazmir yesterday? At one time one of the brightest left-handed starters in baseball Kazmir, who won 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 2007, allowed 30 runs in 15.1 innings in the minors this season leading to the easy decision made by the Angels. It appears that his devastating slider simply ruined his arm. As a rookie his average fastball was 93.7 mph and last year it registered a mere 90.5 mph. His big league career could be over at age 27. So much for staying positive today like I said I would at the top of the piece.

Joe Mauer should be back in action on Friday for the struggling Twins. If you own him get him immediately back into your lineup. At the same time, you’d best hold on to whichever catcher you’ve been riding in his absence since I’m far from convinced that he’ll be able to play nearly every day.

Jorge Posada has been tearing it up the last two weeks hitting .444 over 36 at-bats. However, he didn’t hit a homer in that stretch and he’s still hitting only .227 on the season.

Welcome to the party Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies’ shortstop has two bombs, six RBI and four runs scored in his last three outings. There’s no way around the position that he has been a disappointment at time this year, but even so he’s still on pace to steal more than 30 bases, to score more than 90 times and to hit 14 homers with 64 RBI. Those are still pretty darn solid numbers for a shortstop aren’t they?

Speaking of disappointing shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki is probably second on the list behind Hanley Ramirez when you consider what preseason expectations were. Bit should he be? Tulo is on pace for 31 homers, 110 RBI and 14 steals, so don’t feel too sorry for those who took him in the first round this season.

The last 30 days… Dan Uggla has hit .133, B.J. Upton .136 and Adan Dunn .156. Think of how bad your team would currently be performing you had rostered all three of those guys this draft season. The crazy thing is, if I walked away from the draft table with those three I’d have been pumped. Guess that’s why they play the games.

By Ray Flowers

Buy or Sell – AL Version

photo © 2007 Michael Daddino | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing a handful of the American League players I’m asked about all the time.

* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.

Brennan Boesch: On April 28th Boesch was hitting .350. Two weeks later he is batting .298. His OPS in that time has dropped from .926 to .779. He’s also hit only one homers in his last 31 games. So are the vagaries of small sample sizes. In his career Boesch has hit .265 with 16 homers and 85 RBI in 585 at-bats, not .300-30-100 like some people seem to think he will do this year. He will not hit .300. He will not hit 30 homers. He will not have 100 RBI. In fact, if Boesch were to match his career .265-16-85 line I’d be pleasantly surprised. He’s murdering lefites with a .387/.459/.548 line in 30 at-bats, but in 90 at-bats against righties is once again looking no different than an average big league hitter (.267/.320/.378).
SELL

Zach Britton: It’s getting harder to write off his hot start with each successive successful start. Seven starts into his big league career only once has he allowed more than three earned runs, and the result is an impressive 2.93 ERA. He certainly gets a ton of ground balls, nearly 55 percent of batted balls, but I still  worry about his poor K/9 rate of 5.02, and his completely average 3.35 BB/9 mark. Sooner or later you have to think that his 1.50 K/BB ratio will catch up to him, especially when his hit rate goes up (his current BABIP is .236). In addition, his left on base percentage is 81.1 percent, well in excess of the big league average of 70 percent. Toss in the fact that his xFIP (3.97) says his ERA “should” be a full run higher than it current is, and you’d be smart to see what you could get for Britton if you sold him off.
SELL

Colby Lewis: On April 5th, when his ERA was 6.95, everyone thought this guy was a one year wonder and waiver-wire fodder. However, over his last three outings, Lewis has 17 Ks and three walks, has gone at least 7.1 innings in each outing, and is sporting a 2.31 ERA in that trio of starts. The strikeout rate still has some room to grow since it’s barely over six, in fact I’d be pretty darn surprised if it didn’t, and once that ridiculous HR/9 mark of 2.38 regresses, and it will, his ERA should stand a solid chance of creeping back below four (it’s currently 4.57). He gives up too many fly balls, not a great match for his ballpark, but we saw last season how he could overcome that foible.
BUY

Jed Lowrie: Everyone’s darling after a hot start to the year. He looks to be locked into every day playing time with Marco Scutaro on the shelf, so he is a must start  in mixed leagues, right? Well, maybe. Lowrie hasn’t hit a homer since April 20th (19 games) and since April 22nd he has only four RBI in 17 games. He also hasn’t stolen a base all year, and though we all knew his average would fall – he’s still hitting .327 – he has hit only .256 with 26 percent K-rate in the month of May. I’m not here to say he won’t be an effective option, I’m merely saying that expectations for him are completely out of whack. He’s best used as a starter in AL-only leagues or a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
SELL

Jorge Posada: He’ll be 40 in August, an age when about 99.7 percent of catchers have retired. All those years behind the plate simply break you down physically, and I think that’s what we are seeing with Posada. Everyone seemed to think that moving to the DH role would suddenly turn back the clock a decade – that was never going to happen. The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Posada, but sooner or later they are going to have to admit what is becoming obvious – Posada just doesn’t have it anymore. On the plus side you have to think that his average could easily improve by 50 percent, there’s just no way he’ll have a .134 BABIP this year, not with a .315 career mark. Still, there are better options unless you are talking about him being a second catcher in a mixed league.
SELL

By Ray Flowers

BABIP – An Early Look

photo © 2010 Chelsea N. | more info (via: Wylio)

You hear the term Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) mentioned along in the analysis of players, and today I’m going to break down a few of the players whose current BABIP marks are outstanding for one reason or another.

WHAT IS BABIP?

BABIP, also referred to as a player’s hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP; it removes home runs from the equation, because technically the ball isn’t in play on a home run. Here is the simple formula in play for the measure:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

The major league average is in the .290-.300 range, but it should be pointed out that players tend to set their own baselines, and even if their batting averages are similar, they can have differing BABIP marks. Example:

Ichiro Suzuki has a .330 career batting average, Albert Pujols .330.
Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP, Pujols .313.
(Part of the reason for that is that Pujols hits 40 homers a year, and they don’t count toward a player’s BABIP mark).

With that brief intro, here are some early season outliers. To be fair, there really isn’t enough data to draw on for players in 2011, so this is more of a comparison looking at established levels than it is an indictment or thumbs up for the batters work through a couple of weeks of the big league season.

IN NEED OF TLC

.094 – Jorge Posada
Remember when I wrote that .290-.300 is the big league average? I don’t really need to break down how unlucky Posada has been this year then do I?

.162 – Jacoby Ellsbury
Players with big time wheels often exceed the big league average by a substantial amount because their legs allow them to beat out balls that the average player simply can’t. This situation makes Ellsbury’s low BABIP even more odd, especially since he has a .315 career mark. Ellsbury’s situation is bound to change, but he really needs to cut down on his Ks with 14 in 55 ABs this year or it won’t really matter.

All of the following batters are mired in terribly slow starts that will turn around in short order if history is an accurate guide.

.167 – Jason Heyward
.169 – Angel Pagan
.176 – Ian Kinsler
.179 – Carl Crawford
.182 – Brett Gardner
.183 – Chone Figgins
.185 – Dan Uggla
.197 – James Loney

The oddest name on that list might be Figgins. First off he has speed which, as mentioned, always helps. Second, his current mark is barely 50 percent of his career mark of .335. Third, he’s been hitting the ball hard with a line drive rate of 20.7 percent. It’s not quite up to his career level of 23.2, but it’s better than the big league average of 19-20 percent. Add that all together and it appears that Figgins is a great buy low candidate.

MIGHT BE TIME TO MOVE

The following players have marks that are out of this world right now, ones that hey have no chance in hell of being able to extend out for the course of the season (Austin Jackson led baseball with a mark of .396 last year). You might consider selling high on some of these guys, especially the ones that aren’t “household” names (obviously you’d only move the top-3 names on the list if you received a whopping package in return).

.500 – Matt Kemp
.456 – Andre Ethier
.444 – Joey Votto
.431 – Maicer Izturis
.426 – Alex Gordon
.421 – David Freese
.421 – Colby Rasmus
.410 – Travis Hafner
.410 – Nick Hundley

The last two names on the list deserve a mention.

Everyone is jumping on the Hafner train, and I fear that sucker is about ready to veer off the tracks. Maybe he is finally healthy after years of not being physically capable of playing everyday, but as a DH only eligible player he’s really going to clog your roster up if he stops hitting. Hafner’s career BABIP is .318, and only once in the last four years has he even reached that level.

Hundley is a catcher, so if he goes out there and hits .250-15-65 people will be happy, but some people seem to have the feeling that he might be the next V-Mart. He isn’t, not by a long shot. In his three previous seasons Hundley posted marks of .288, .303 and .293 in the BABIP column, so do you really think he’s going to be able to sustain a mark that is .100 points clear of that?

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Catchers

Over the next little while I’m going to release hundreds of player capsules for hitters. I’ll break them down by positions each day, and give you a sampling of what I’m going to provide to each of you. So this is how it will work.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

Here is an example of what to expect.

Chris Iannetta
For some reason the Rockies haven’t trusted this guy despite the fact that per 500 at-bats in his career that he has averaged roughly 23 homers and 83 RBI. His batting average is an eyesore, he owns a career .234 mark, but with ample power and an ability to take a walk (.353 career OBP), it’s odd that he has been given more than 300 at-bats just once in his career.

Yadier Molina
A batting average booster in 2007-09, Yadier fell on hard times last season posting his worst average since 2006. Despite that fact, there is reason for optimism. His walk rate was up last season leaving him with a career average BB/K mark, and his line drive rate was a career-high 21 percent. A .281 BABIP likely speaks to a bit of poor luck for the Cardinal in 2010.

Jorge Posada
At nearly 40 years of age, Posada simply can’t handle the rigors of catching on a daily basis. That’s why the Yankees plan to use Posada as their DH in 2011. Can Posada still hit? He will be a threat to 20 homers and 70 RBI – totals he has reached eight times in the same season – if he can stay healthy, but beware his declining bat speed and what that might do to his average.

The Catcher code is: Tools of Ignorance

By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers