A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: 2011 Review

Most people like to brag about their successes, but few stand accountable when they screw things up. I’m not one of those people. More times than not I’d like to think I’m right, but there are also times where I clearly miss the mark.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

Today, I will look at the hitters I reviewed. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the pitchers.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run.

Jose Bautista – .302-43-103-105-9
“Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot… There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330… why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?”

Bautista had a phenomenal season, better than I thought he would as he posted a second straight 40-100-100 season while leading baseball with a 1.056 OPS. So I was wrong. Period. Still he did score less runs, knock in fewer runs and have fewer RBI than he did in 2010. At the same time, I was totally right about his production slowing. Bautista hit only 12 homers with a .257 batting average over his final 65 games.
DOUBLE

Justin Smoak: .234-15-55-38-0
“Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season.”

Injuries killed Smoak this season, and he seemed to have forgotten how to hit in the second half as he had three homers and 12 RBI, with a .661 OPS, over his final 39 games.
SINGLE

Brett Wallace: .259-5-29-37-1
“A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.” He was hitting 367 over 23 games at the time the piece was written.

I knew he would regress, but even I ‘m surprised by how much he did. Shocked actually. He barely ended up having any value even as a corner infield option in NL-only leagues.
DOUBLE

Willie Bloomquist: .266-4-26-44-20
“…he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG… Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist.” He was leading baseball in steals at the time the article was written

Come on. Did anyone other than Kay Adams really think I was gonna be wrong here?
HOME RUN

Ryan Raburn: .256-14-49-53-1
“Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.”

His average dipped a bit, it was in the .280′s in 2009-10, but he was basically the exact same guy he had been the previous two seasons. Of course, it was a season of two halves for Raburn as he had a .213 average an a .609 OPS in the first half and a .341 average and .967 OPS after the All-Star break.
DOUBLE

David DeJesus: .240-10-46-60-4
“Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with five outfielders? Possibly, but only barely. Is DeJesus a starter in AL-only leagues with three outfielders? You bet your rear he is. It’s all about putting players in position to succeed…”

I was right about DeJesus having value in AL-only leagues, but I was shocked at how poorly he performed. Still, do you know how many AL outfielders hit 10 homers with 45 RBI and 60 runs scored? The answer is only 21.
DOUBLE

Nick Swisher: .260-23-85-81-2
“I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.”

After hitting .288 in 2011 Swisher hit .260 this season, six points clear of his career .254 mark. He fell just short of 24 homers, but one, though he did hit 80 RBI and runs scored. You can’t get more dead on with a prediction that I did here.
HOME RUN

Adrian Gonzalez: .338-27-117-108-1
“…Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all… I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix…”

Can you be right while also being totally wrong at the same time? Gonzalez hit only 27 homers, a 5-year low, but that was all I was right about. Gonzalez killed it all year in a fantastic season for the BoSox. I was wrong. Still, I would caution expecting a repeat in 2012 in the batting average category. He hit .045 points above his career mark despite a normal 21.2 percent line drive rate (career 21.0) as his BABIP skyrocketed by .058 points.
SINGLE

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Napoli

If you don’t love yourself, who else will? Given that fact, here is a direct quote from my 2011 BaseballGuys.com Hitter Capsules from April 1st, 2011.

“For three years Mike Napoli has bashed his way to 20 homers despite an average of 354 at-bats a season. Few catchers can match his power. Adding the dimension of playing first base last season allowed him to post a career-high at-bat total, and one would think that if he ever was given 500 at-bats that he might be capable of posting that elusive 30 homer season.”

Napoli didn’t get those 500 at-bats. In fact, he didn’t even get 400. Hell, he didn’t even get 375 as he finished the year with 369 at-bats. I know he was hurt for a while there, but the Rangers horribly mismanaged him this season and as a result almost torpedoed what ended up being a magical season.

I don’t know if you noticed it, but Napoli hit 30 homers. Thirty. That’s a homer every 12.3 at-bats. If he had maintained that pace over 500 at-bats, and I’m pretty certain he couldn’t have, he would have hit 41 homers. As a result his .631 SLG was the best in baseball for a player who had at least 400 plate appearances. The power has always been his calling card, but in 2011 he also added a batting average.

Napoli, who had never hit better than .273 in a season and owned a career mark of .251 entering the year, hit .320. Not .230 but .320 (Joe Mauer owns a career mark of .323). He hit lefties (.319) and righties (.320), he hit at home (.307) and on the road (.332), and he hit at night (.318) and during the day (.324). He isn’t a .300 hitter, his BABIP this year was .344 or .041 points above his career rate, but he cut his strikeouts to a career low 19.7 percent of his at-bats, so he showed some improvement. Thanks to the lack of punchouts and a solid walk rate his BB/K mark was a well worth the price of admission at 0.68 leading to a superb .414 OBP (Mauer owns a career mark of .403). Amongst players with at least 400 plate appearances this year Napoli’s .414 mark was 5th best in baseball.

Adding his work getting on base and his ability to produce extra bases, Napoli posted a 1.046 OPS, the second best mark in baseball for a player with 400 plate appearances (Jose Bautista was 1st with a 1.056 mark).

So let’s put things in historical perspective. How many catchers in the 21st century have hit .320 with 30 homers an a 1.000 OPS? The answer is three.

.320-30-1.046 – Napoli this year
.324-38-1.012 – Mike Piazza in 2000
.328-43-1.065 – Javy Lopez in 2003

Piazza had 545 plate appearances.
Lopez had 495 plate appearances.
Napoli had 432 plate appearances.

Think it’s about time that (a) Napoli gets his due and (b) someone gives the guy 500 at-bats?

By Ray Flowers

Boring Is As Boring Does

You want boring, don’t read this blog. You want boring, don’t listen to my radio show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. You want boring, go home.

Why all this boring talk? Because of the main guy I’m gonna highlight today. His name is Mark Buehrle, and word on the street is that even his wife is bored by him. Ah, but is boring necessarily a bad thing? I’d posit, at least in this case, that it’s not.

Buehrle hasn’t won more than 13 games the past three years. He’s never won 20 games, and only once has be won more than 16 (he came in with 19 victories in 2002). Still, he’s won at least 10 games each of the past 11 years.  It doesn’t sound like much, but the only other pitcher who can match that run is CC Sabathia.

He owns a career ERA of 3.80. That’s solid, but unexciting, possibly even boring some might say. Still, hie ERA has been under 3.90 in three of the past four years and his current mark of 3.06 says he will make it four of five years.

Buehrle never strikes anyone out. His career best for a K/9 is 6.05, and he’s now working on a third straight season under five at 4.79.

So why am I talking about Buehrle? Because his boring old self has been pretty amazing of late. How amazing? Buehrle worked his 18th straight outing last night in which he allowed three or fewer earned runs (he tied Frank Smith’s 1909 record). That’s over 100 years people. In those 18 starts he’s also posted a “quality start” (six or more innings pitched with three of fewer earned runs allowed), ready for this, 17 times. Now tell me, do you want that boring guy on your team? I do.

NUMBERS

I know none of you listened when I warned about Jose Bautista and the likely fall his batting average would take in the second half, but you should have. Bautista hit .334 in the first half, but in 22 games since the All-Star break he has hit all of .205. He’s still hitting a strong .309 on the year, but I’ve said it over and over again — even hitting .300 has always been a huge stretch for Bautista who has never hit even .265 in a season.

Adam Dunn is hitting .167 in the second half. Amazingly, that’s seven points better than he batted in the first half.

Aubrey Huff is the Giants leading hitter right now with a .249 average (he has the highest average on the club of any player with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting average title – 3.1 plate appearances per team game). He’s been on fire of late though, finally, hitting .353 in August and .305 over his last 24 games. Finally.

Adam Lind is hitting .196 since the All-Star break. The team says the blame rests with a mechanical flaw in his hack. Let’s hope that is the case, but he is unusable right now in mixed leagues.

Kerry Wood has struck out 8-straight batters to tie the all-time Cubs’ record. Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz also pulled off the trick. With the hot stretch Wood has upped his K/9 mark to 9.64 on the year, still nearly three quarters of a point below his career mark of 10.33.

By Ray Flowers

HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

With the All-Star Game in our rear view mirror, everyone wants to know which players will have success in the second half. Never one to shirk my duties to give the people what they want, I’m releasing PART I of my two part look at Rest of the Way Rankings (ROTW).

What you will find in this two-part series are my rankings for players the ROTW. Jose Bautista has arguably been the best hitter in baseball the first half, but does that mean he will be the best hitter the ROTW? I’ll give you my thoughts on Bautista an all the other elite level position players in this entry.

Also be aware that players are only listed at one spot so don’t expect to see Kevin Youkilis listed at first base and third base. He might qualify at both spots, but I’ve only listed him at one spot (third base).

With that, here are my rankings for position players for the Rest of the Way.

HITTERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Look for Part II on pitchers in a coming entry.

By Ray Flowers

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

photo © 2009 Nicole Hernandez | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve tried to explain how in the world that Jose Bautista is doing what he’s doing, an I’ve pretty much come up craps. In Take a Swing, Jeff Passan takes his hacks.

I don’t remember the last time I did this, but I’m going to quote myself (how narcisitic is that?). Here’s a Twitter post of mine from earlier today. “Did you listen to me about Trevor Cahill? Last five starts: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 0.71 K/BB.” Well did you listen and downgrade him when I told you to or did you blindly push forward irrespecitve of my advice?

Carlos Carrasco has five wins in his last six outings and over his last two efforts, spanning 15.1 innings, he’s held the Twins and the Yankees off the scoreboard. All of a sudden everyone is interested in the Indians’ hurler. Carrasco, a former Phillies’ minor league standout, has done a good job limiting the walks at less than three per nine innings. However, his K-rate is barely over 5.50, and that portends trouble unless you are able to generate a lot of ground balls. Fortunately Carlos does a good job of inducing grounders with a 51.4 percent career GB mark. What I see here is a solid AL-only arm, but one that would be a stretch  in a 15 team mixed league. When he’s got the ground balls flowing he can pitch very well, but the lack of strikeouts means he isn’t going to be someone who makes a true impact in the fantasy game.

I’m still fielding questions about Josh Collmenter. Please tell me you aren’t one of the people asking if you’re in a mixed league. Collmenter has gotten by to this point with a boatload of luck, batters are having a hard time picking up his release point, but the truth of the matter is that Josh simply isn’t a very good pitcher. I know he has a 1.86 ERA an a 0.86 WHIP through 14 games which makes me look stupid, but scouts will tell you that he doesn’t own a single pitch that grades out as better than big league average. He doesn’t strike anyone out (5.74 per nine), doesn’t get any grounders (40 percent of batted balls), and has been one lucky devil with a .205 BABIP. He might end up with passable numbers by the time the season is over, but even if that’s the case there is a ton of regression coming down the pipe.

Alcides Escobar has hit .500 during his seven game hitting streak. He’s still hitting just .235 on the year, but he might be a person of interest in deep mixed leagues who use a middle infielder because in addition to all the hits of late he’s also started to run again with four steals in nine games. The key to that is simple – he’s finally getting on base. The owner of just 10 walks this season, Escobar owns a pathetic .267 OBP. You can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on base.

Everyone in the world seems to think that Jason Heyward is a wussy, and that he has lost all his talent and value. I don’t get that at all. Oh he might be a wussy or diva-like in not wanting to play when he isn’t 100 percent physically, but the skills are still elite (as an aside, he’s traveling to Atlanta to have his shoulder looked at and he could be back in action for the Braves very quickly). His is an example of people simply panicking because they aren’t seeing it on the field. I’m telling you, the young man still owns Hall of Fame talent, still lashes liners harder than just about any person on the planet, and should still be a building block if you’re in a keeper league. I’d bet that in two years you’ll have forgotten all about his dismal first half in 2011.

Josh Johnson was transferred to the 60 day DL. That means the Marlins’ ace will be out of action until at least July 16th. Johnson has yet to throw off the mound since hitting the DL with his shoulder woes, but the team remains confident that he will be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. When injured he left behind some of the best numbers in the game (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 56 Ks in 60.1 IP), but the guy is probably the riskiest top-10 hurler in the game.

Joakim Soria has saves in three straight outings since he returned to the closers role for the Royals. He also picked up a win in his outing previous to the saves run, and he is unscored upon in his last six outings. All is right in the world yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Pointing Out the Obvious

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m headed to the FSTA Conference today in San Francisco to do the first experts football draft of the year. But you know me, I can’t let a day go without talking about baseball.

How in the world am I still getting questions from people about should they add Scott Baker to their staff? Have you people been listening to me at all? I’ve been saying go all in with Baker since January. Over, an over, an over again I keep saying it. Why is no one listening? So let me say it for the last time. YES, ADD BAKER. He has a 8.39 K/9 mark, 3.39 K/BB, 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If you’re in a league where that doesn’t help you it must be an eight team mixed league.

Neftali Feliz has converted 3-straight save chances, and his ERA is 1.21 on the year. So everything is fine, right? Not so fast. I know everyone panicked and ran away from Joakim Soria when he lost his closing job a few weeks back (Hopefully you didn’t do that and listened to me when I said to hold on to the struggling arm who would like be re-inserted into the closers role quickly if he showed a turnaround. That’s exactly what happened after a trio of solid outings as a setup man). Why did I switch from talking about Feliz to Soria? Do me a favor and look at their numbers this season next to one another. I’ll bet dollar to doughnuts that you’ll be surprised that Soria has easily outpitched Feliz.

Feliz: 5.50 xFIP, 4.84 K/9, 5.64 BB/9, 0.62 GB/FB, 95.4 LOB%
Soria: 3.87 xFIP, 7.14 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 67.8 LOB%

The only reason that anyone thinks that Feliz is pitching better than Soria is because of an immense amount of luck for the Rangers’ closer. He’s pitched worse than Soria by nearly any measure, and has only been successful because of his insanely high left on base percentage amongst other things.

What’s wrong with Tim Lincecum? That’s a question I’ve gotten a couple of times the past few days. Over his last three outings Lincecum has looked awful, he’s allowed 22 hits and 16 runs over 15.1 innings, so I understand the concern from people. At the same time, his current WHIP is 1.19. His career mark is 1.18. His current batting average against is .233. His career mark is .225. His current walk rate is 3.02 per nine. His career mark is 3.23. His current BABIP is .294. His career mark is .296. His current xFIP is 3.03. His career mark is 3.15 and his mark last season was 3.09. Yes his K’s are down about three quarters of a batter per nine, but his 9.16 mark is still stellar. So what’s wrong with Lincecum? Nothing. His performance for the year is exactly where we should expect it to be it’s just been a roller coaster ride.

Hunter Pence is dealing with a minor back issue that has dogged him for a few days, but he should return to action on Monday. Pence has one of the quietest 22 game hitting streaks in recent memory to boost his average up to .318 on the year. His performance to date, if extended out over the season, would result in a 5×5 effort of .318-19-112-80-7, a pretty darn solid line and one that would place him amongst the top-15 outfielders in the fantasy game if he were to keep it up.

And finally, a Jose Bautista update. Over his last 11 games Bautista has hit .222 to drop his season long average from .360 to .338. He’s also homered in just one of his last 14 games. He’s still second in the AL in batting average and leads major league baseball in homers with one more than Curtis Granderson and Matt Kemp, but I just thought I would point it out to those of you who think Jose is a lock to be the AL MVP this year.

By Ray Flowers

ROTW Rankings: Hitters

I get asked all the time, ‘hey Ray, can you rank these players for me the rest of the way.’ I diligently answer the queries, but with the question being asked so frequently it only made sense for me to come up with a list that I could refer people to. A few caveats before we get to the actual rankings.

(1) Players are only listed at one position so you only find Jose Bautista in the outfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop even though they qualify at multiple positions.

(2) I’ve sprinkled in a few rookies, guys like Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero and Desmond Jennings, but with so much uncertainty surrounding young players and when/if they will be called up, most of the youngsters currently in the minors were left off the list.

(3) This is the most important point to make – these are Rest of the Way rankings. Jose Bautista might be the #1 fantasy performer right now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the best the ROTW. These lists are intended to give my thoughts on how players should be ranked from May 30th on, irrespective of the players production up to this point.

(4) The rankings are based on the standard of a 12 team mixed league using traditional 5×5 categories.

With that, here is the list. I’m sure you’ll all have a good time critiquing my thoughts, and I look forward to reading your replies in the COMMENTS section below.

ROTW-HITTERS-May30-2011-BBGuys

By Ray Flowers

Bonds, Ruth and Bautista?

photo © 2010 Matt Pirecki | more info (via: Wylio)

The sun will rise in the morning, Raquel Welch will always be beautiful, and Jose Bautista will be the best hitter in baseball. Wait, what?

I’ve been a broken record for 12 months now. I keep saying “Jose Bautista can’t possibly keep this up,” yet week after week he does. It’s gotten to such a ridiculous point that people are now claiming that Bautista is not only a top-10 fantasy performer but that he is the best hitter in the game right now. Should we replace Lou Gehrig in the photo to the left and put Jose Bautista next to Babe Ruth?

2004-2009 SEASONS
During this period, Bautista’s season bests were 16 homers, 63 RBI, 75 runs scored and a .254 average. For the six years his slash line was .238/.329/.400. During that time the league average as better at .270/.340/.434.

2010 SEASON
.260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS
Bautista led baseball in homers, was third in RBI and sixth in runs scored. He also became the fourth hitter in baseball history to have a season of 50 homers, 120 RBI, 100 runs, 100 walks and 35 doubles (the others are Babe Ruth, Hack Wilson and Luis Gonzalez).

2011 SEASON
.370-16-27-35-4 with a 1.365 OPS
His effort thus far is simply stunning. Bautista has been so stupendous, and honestly that word doesn’t do his performance justice, that he is on pace to hit hit .370 with 61 homers, 104 RBI, 135 runs scored and 15 steals.

HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Bautista’s work in 2011 is so absurd that it’s akin to being hit square in the face with a cast iron skillet.

(1) Bautista is hitting .370 and is on pace for more than 60 homers. Since 1940, only one player has hit .350 with 50 homers in a season. The year was 1957 and that hitter was Mickey Mantle (.365 with 52 homers).

(2) Bautista has an OBP of .516. In the history of baseball there have only been 10 seasons that can match that (minimum of 502 plate appearances). Think about that. Of all the players who have every played, there have only been 10 seasons better than the level that Bautista is currently getting on base.

(3) Bautista has an .849 SLG. In the history of the game only Barry Bonds 2001 season of .863 is better.

(4) Bautista has a 1.365 OPS. In the history of baseball there have only been four seasons that ended with marks higher than that – three by Barry Bonds and one by Babe Ruth.

As much as you all love Bautista, there simply can’t be a single person out there with half a brain that can legitimately claim that Bautista’s name should be mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. We can agree on that, right? Come on, be honest. Do you really, if you search deep into the recesses of your being, think that Bautista deserves to have his name mentioned amongst the best hitters that the game of baseball has every produced before?

PERSONAL REVIEW

I’ve written and talked about how preposterous the performance of Bautista is going back to the start of last season. Here are the bullet points.

Bautista has never, not one single time, hit even .265 in a season. NEVER.
Bautista has never, not one single time, posted an OBP of .380 in a season.

As much as we want to say that he’s changed his swing and just figured everything out, we still have six years of below average work and one and a quarter seasons of excellence to review. Don’t forget that Bautista owns a rather average set of career numbers.

In his career his slash line is .250/.351/.472
The average player during his career has posted a line of .267/.337/.426.

PREDICTION

Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot.

There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330. Players just don’t add .100 points to their career batting average, it just doesn’t happen.

Is he going to finish with an OBP, SLG and OPS in the top-10 all-time for a single season? Please.

The question is – how much will he fall? Secondarily, will he be a top-5 performer, a top-10 performer, a top-25 performer? That’s where things get a bit trickier.

Put your thinking cap on and be honest. If I told you that Player A, through a quarter of a season, was producing career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG, home run rate, steal rate, walk rate, K-rate and BABIP, wouldn’t your inclination be to be wary of that level of production continuing?

What if I told you he was hitting .110 points better than ever before?

Or how about if he was on pace to bump his OBP by .138 points?

What about if his SLG was .233 points clear of any previous season?

What about if he was running so frequently that he was on pace to basically double his career best effort?

You’d tell me there was no chance that Player A would be able to keep that up. Given that, why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Surgers

photo © 2011 Richard Eriksson | more info (via: Wylio)

Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink and I had a big time debate yesterday on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. about Jose Bautista. My position was, as you probably expect, that I just don’t understand how he’s doing what he’s doing.  Bautista leads the AL in average (.362), homers (eight), OBP (.522), SLG (.783) and OPS (1.304). How do people not see the utter folly in expecting him to continue along at this pace?

Let’s compare his current pace to his carer best numbers.

Average: .260 (career .247)
OBP: .378 (career .349)
SLG: .617 (career .462)
OPS: .995 (career .810)

Last year was totally ridiculous, you have to see that, but what he is doing this year is insane. I don’t care how he changed his swing, this guy simply isn’t Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. How about some historical perspective. Do you know how many players have back-to-back 50 homer seasons? The answer is five guys – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Babe Ruth. Even the most ardent fans of Bautista know that he doesn’t belong in that group, not even close. Beyond the homers, something everyone is simply missing completely here, is that Bautista has never, not once, hit even .265 in the big leagues. If he were to finish this year hitting .290 (there is no way he will if you ask me), and if he were to have 569 at-bats this year (his total from last year), we’re talking about a guy who will hit .280 the rest of the way. Again, given that he has never hit even .265 in a season, do you really think even that modest projection is likely?

Let me bash Starlin Castro for a moment. Will he one day be a top-5 shortstop? I don’t doubt that at all. Can he do it as a 21 year old this season? Even with his hot start (.350-1-11-17-4) I really question whether it’s possible. I touched on Castro yesterday in my Mailbag Article. To pile on that, his OBP is only .024 points clear of his batting average since he has only four walks, and it’s pretty darn hard to hit well above .300 if you rarely walk. And for those of you looking for a power breakout, it just ain’t gonna happen when you hit 57 percent of your balls on the ground (that number dips somewhat to 52.4 percent in his brief career, but even at that level 10 homers is the best you can expect).

Anyone besides me miss the Geto Boys?

Matt Harrison was bombed on Tuesday night allowing seven runs in just three innings. Obviously he isn’t going to pitch that badly very often, but even with that outing his ratios are still solid (3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Do I think he can keep this up? No I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but when a guy doesn’t strike out six batters per nine, walks more batter than the big league average (3.41 per nine), allows more homers than the big league average (1.14) and has a merely average GB/FB rate (1.29) while pitching in a home ball yard that favors hitters – I get nervous. Speaking of nervous, what in the world was Harrison scared about when he took his team photo this year? Yikes.

Josh Tomlin lovers, it’s all going to come to a crashing halt at some point. Here’s why – he’s nothing more than an average hurler. I know he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but there is no chance, zilch, that he can keep this going (he will not be this years Clay Buchholz). Tomlin’s K/9 rate of 5.00 is below the big league average (7.00), and the same can be said about his K/BB rate (2.14 to 2.10), HR/9 (1.00 to 1.00), and his GB/FB ratio (1.21 to 1.10). Face it everyone, he’s been all smoke and mirrors. His FIP mark tells the truth. Though his ERA is 2.33, FIP says that mark should be 4.26. I don’t know when the bottom will fall out, but it’s bound to happen sooner or later.

By Ray Flowers