Draft Day Challenge, May 21

BaseballGuys.com. has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Salvador Perez

McCann loves to see Mike Pelfrey on the hill. In 39 at-bats the slugging catcher has hit .462 with two homers and 10 RBIs. Yowzahs.

Perez is batting .3008 on the year and has pushed that mark to .368 over the past week. He’s also hit .323 against righties this year. So what if he doesn’t have an at-bat against Bud Norris.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Jordan Pacheco

What was once a lock now seems like a risk. Pujols has hit .280 with two homers the past week, and he faces Aaron Harang who he hits pretty well (.311 with five homers and 15 RBIs over 74 at-bats).

After going superstar in Pujols (former superstar?), let’s go with a nobody in Pacheco. Jordan has a hit in his last three starts. Jordan is hitting .400 the past week. Jordan has hit .340 at home. He’s hit .500 (18 ABs) against the D’backs in his career. Jordan has four hits in 11 at-bats (.364) against Ian Kennedy.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Brandon Phillips

Uggla hammers Pelfrey hitting .406 with 11 RBIs in 32 at-bats which is enough for me to overlook the fact that he has one hit in his last 14 at-bats overall.

Go big or go home with Phillips. Not only has the guy knocked in 38 runners in 43 games this season, he’s also hit .300 with a homer and seven RBIs the past week. He’s gone 5/13 (.385) with two homers against Jonathon Niese.

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Chavez

Alvarez is only hitting .147 at home this season (and .201 overall), but he’s gone deep twice in the past week, is facing Matt Garza in his first start this season, and has gone 5-for-10 with a HR against Garza in their confrontations.

Chavez is hitting .343 on the year and he’s batting an unbelievable .571 with six RBIs the past week. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who he has never seen before on Tuesday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Didi Gregorius

Escobar has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and he’s driven in six runs in his last four outings. He faces Ramon Ortiz, you know the old guy who we haven’t consistently seen take a turn in the big league since before Obama was elected President.

Gregorius is hitting like he never has in his life before, but we’re not worried about the fact that he has no chacne to keep that up the rest of the way. Didi has one hit in two at-bats against Chacin in his career but he has six hits in his last two games and has gone 8-for-13 against the Rockies this season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nate McLouth
2. Matt Holliday

How excited would you be about a player if I told you he had seven hits, including four doubles, in nine at-bats against a pitcher? That’s what has happened when McLouth has faced Phil Hughes.

Holliday has hit Edinson Volquez hard with a .412 average, two homers and four RBIs in 17 at-bats. Carlos Beltran has also hit .417 with five RBIs in 12 ABs against the righty.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Zack Greinke
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Jose Fernandez
4. Jerome Williams

Greinke looked sharp in his return from the DL and he gets to return to his former home in Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers team that has, get this, produced two hits against in him 34 at-bats. Two. He also faces Hiram Burgos which doesn’t hurt.

Wandy has been very good this season and in four home starts this season he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He faces a Cubs team that isn’t very good offensively, and he’s also posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in their last six meetings.

Fernandez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts allowing a total of five earned runs for the Marlins. He’s also struck out 21 batters in those 20 innings. He faces a Phillies team that is without Howard and Ruiz.

Williams has pitched well this year, there’s no way he can sustain that 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but he faces the Mariners Tuesday. The entire Mariners team has hit .228 with one home run in 114 at-bats against Williams.
By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 13 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

Oh, there’s also a little discussion in here about the fantastic start of Adam Wainwright and why you should be a bit nervous if you own Starling Marte or Tony Cingrani.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.2

I made an executive decision over the weekend when I was away drinking champagne and sitting in front of the fire with my friend in Carmel (she was decidedly better looking than the Peep that you see in main photo, and she is even sweeter than my sugary friend as well). I decided that every Monday I’d run through my seven main leagues that I’m doing this season and regale you with my personal FAAB decisions. Hopefully it won’t be as boring as it sounds and you’ll all be able to get something out of my personal decisions on many of the same players you will all be looking at each week.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Oh, and before I get to my moves. Remember this – IT’S EARLY. If you want to tweak your roster, fine. But one week of games is far too early to do anything rash like blowing your club up. Patience. Now where is my robe, room service and snuggle time? Am I the only one that thinks returning to the real world blows chunks sometimes?

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): I didn’t make any moves this week. I tried to release Mike Adams for Jim Henderson but my $6 bid (out of $100) fell well short of the $13 that he went for. Chris Heisey went for $9, Jose Fernandez for $8 and Jose Valverde going for $7. No other player cost more than $3.

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Slim pickings in a league specific setup. I added Matt Lindstrom for $2 (out of $100) as I put Jeff Niemann on the DL. Other adds in a rather quiet week (I had Jose Valverde on reserve in this league and that could turn out to be huge if he gains the closer’s role): Blake Beaven ($1), Jayson Nix ($1), Eric Sogard ($6), Sam Fuld ($3), Kevin Correia ($4), Shelly Duncan ($2), Brett Cecil ($2) and Drew Smyly $13 (I bid $8 for him).

FSTA (13 team mixed): Seventeen players were added here. Part of the reason for that is that this league drafted in January which leaves many more options to add early in the year that have since our draft gained roles. Jim Henderson ($56), Jeremy Guthrie ($71), Rajai Davis ($99) were the highest adds ($1,000 budget). I added one player – Sergio Santos ($9). I put Shaun Marcum in the DL to make the move.

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): I had to place Hanley Ramirez on the DL so I needed a middle infielder. I really wanted Eduardo Nunez, but given his biceps issue, and the fact that I couldn’t afford another injured middle infield option, I added Chris Nelson for $5 (out of my $100 budget). The big add of the week in the league was Jose Fernandez ($19) with only one other player in double-digits (Jose Valverde at $11).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): I didn’t make a single move in this league. This is the only league I’m in that moves can be made on a daily basis so there is no pressure to set up FAAB – you just free for all with it (which you all know I hate). There have been a ton of moves in this league – hello John Buck, Jackie Bradley and Jaime Garcia – but it’s only 11 teams and it’s a long season.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Eleven total players were added this week. The big money guys – $1,000 budget – included Kelvin Herrera ($167), Jose Valverde ($62) and Jim Henderson ($62). Obviously trolling for saves eats up a lot of a FAAB budget as you’ve seen in many of the leagues listed here. That’s why it always makes sense to try and attach the position a week early. You could have gotta Herrera or Valverde or Henderson for a $1 a week ago. Now look what you have to spend to get the. My add of the week – I only went $32 for Henderson and $31 for Valverde since I’m not convinced either ends up leading his team in saves – was Drew Storen for $3. He’s an elite talent who is one injury or a couple of more bad outings from Rafael Soriano from working the 9th inning for the Nationals. I released Shaun Marcum.

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I added one player in this league – Jose Valverde ($3 of $100). Now I don’t love Valverde by any means, but after the Rockies decided to demote Tyler Colvin I thought I’d take a shot on adding a guy who could end up as the Tigers’ closer by the end of the month (letting go of a minor leaguer for a potential closer can’t be viewed as a bad move). If not, I’ll just use that spot to rotate weekly depending on need. In fact, only nine players were added by the 12 others in the league. The most cost add was a tied between Jim Henderson ($4) and Chris Heisey ($4). Mark Buehrle and Jeff Francoeur were dropped, two moves I have no problem with.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies & Prospects – Are They Worth It?

So you want to be one of those “smart” people in fantasy baseball that takes the hot shot rookie for the “upside” play early in the draft OK, maybe you aren’t that person, but let’s say you are more than willing to scoop up that prospect in the 15th round because of the “boring” options that are available. As I point out all the time, give me a team of Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Adam LaRoche and Michael Cuddyer and nine times out of 10 I will crush your team of Jurickson Profar, Domonic Brown, Dylan Bundy and Mike Olt. It’s just the way it is. Well, it’s the way I tell you it is without actually attempting to quantify that position with facts. Now we have them.

The following discussion comes from the mind of Kyle Elfrink. It’s not just his brainchild, in terms of him coming up with the idea, but it’s also penned by him. So special thanks to Kyle for the research he did to dig up the facts, and for allowing me to post his words here on the site.

I searched Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects (perhaps the most trusted source on minor leaguers) every year, going back to the turn of the century in 2000. (note: I did not include either 2011 or 2012 because it’s too early to give close-to-definitive answers on players). Here’s what I found.

- 89 different prospects were listed as ‘Top 10′ over the course of 11 years (many players were repeats from one year to the next).

- 29 of those 89 were ‘hits/fantasy assets’ (32.5%)

- 22 of those 89 were ‘OK fantasy players’ (24.7%)

- 38 of those 89 were ‘misses/busts’ (42.8%)

- If you repeat from one year to the next, your chances are quite good of becoming a serviceable MLB player (Joe Mauer was a ‘top 10′ prospect for four years!).

- Hitters have a far better success rate than pitchers … 31 of the 52 ‘hits’ and ‘ok’s’ have been hitters.

- Projections have become much better in the past few seasons.

- ’04 and ’05 are the only years since 2000 with more than three hits.

- What has the ‘Top-3′ done over the years?  Well, not including ‘repeats’, there are 10 hits, eight misses, and 3 OKs … less than 50% of the top-3 (i.e., guys that most everyone thought would become All-Stars) since 2000 has been a ‘hit’ … i.e. a good fantasy player.

- 2013 list - 1. Jurickson Profar 2. Dylan Bundy 3. Oscar Taveras 4. Wil Myers 5. Jose Fernandez 6. Shelby Miller 7. Gerrit Cole 8. Xander Bogaerts 9. Miguel Sano 10. Byron Buxton

- History says that three of these will be hits … two will be hitters … Profar, Bundy, Myers, and Miller are repeats from previous years, thus helping their odds

2000 – 0 hits, 3 OK, 6 miss, 1 repeat
1. Ankiel (MISS)
2. Burrell (OK)
3. C. Patterson (MISS)
4. V. Wells (OK)
5. N. Johnson (MISS)
6. R. Mateo (MISS)
7. Burroughs
8. Furcal (OK)
9. R. Anderson (MISS)
10. Patterson (MISS)

2001 – 3 hits, 2 OK, 1 miss, 4 repeats
1. Hamilton (HIT)
2. C. Patterson
3. Beckett
4. Rauch (MISS)
5. Sheets (OK)
6. Burroughs
7. Sabathia (HIT)
8. R. Anderson
9. Ichiro (HIT)
10. N. Johnson

2002 – 3 hits, 1 OK, 6 miss
1.Beckett (HIT)
2.Prior (MISS)
3.Blalock (MISS)
4.Burroughs (MISS)
5.Pena (OK)
6.Cruz (MISS)
7.Mauer (HIT)
8.Betemit (MISS)
9.Henson (MISS)
10.Tex (HIT)

2003 – 4 hits, 2 repeat, 4 miss
1.Tex
2.Baldelli (MISS)
3.Reyes (HIT)
4.Mauer
5.Foppert (MISS)
6.Contreras (MISS)
7.Phillips (HIT)
8.Matsui (HIT)
9.Floyd (MISS)
10.K-Rod (HIT)

2004 – 4 hits, 1 repeat, 3 OKs, 2 miss
1.Mauer
2.Upton (HIT)
3.Del. Young (OK)
4.Ed. Jackson (OK)
5.R. Weeks (HIT)
6.Rios (HIT)
7.K. Matsui (MISS)
8.Miller (MISS)
9.Sizemore (OK)
10.P. Fielder (HIT)

2005 – 2 hits, 3 repeats, 5 miss
1.Mauer
2.F. Hernandez (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Stewart (MISS)
5.Guzman (MISS)
6.Kotchman (MISS)
7.Kazmir (MISS)
8.R. Weeks
9.Marte (MISS)
10.H. Ramirez (HIT)

2006 – 3 hits, 1 repeat, 2 OK, 4 miss
1.Del. Young
2.J. Upton (HIT)
3.Wood (MISS)
4.Hermida (MISS)
5.S. Drew (MISS)
6.Liriano (OK)
7.Billingsley (OK)
8.Verlander (HIT)
9.Miledge (MISS)
10.Cain (HIT)

2007 – 2 hits, 3 OK, 2 repeat, 3 miss
1.Dice-K (MISS)
2.Al. Gordon (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Hughes (OK)
5.Bailey (OK)
6.Maybin (OK)
7.Longoria (HIT)
8.B. Wood (MISS)
9.J. Upton
10.Miller (MISS)

2008 – 3 hits, 4 miss, 3 repeat
1.Bruce (HIT)
2.Longoria
3.Chamberlain (MISS)
4.Buchholz (MISS)
5.Rasmus (MISS)
6.Maybin
7.Kershaw (HIT)
8.F. Morales (MISS)
9.Bailey
10.Price (HIT)

2009 – 2 hit, 3 OK, 3 repeat, 2 miss
1.Wieters (OK)
2.Price
3.Rasmus
4. T. Hanson (OK)
5.Heyward (HIT)
6.Snider (MISS)
7.B. Anderson (MISS)
8. Maybin
9.Bumgarner (HIT)
10.N. Feliz (OK)

2010 – 3 hits, 4 OK, 1 miss, 2 repeat
1.Heyward
2.Strasburg (HIT)
3.Stanton (HIT)
4.J. Montero (OK)
5.Matsuz (MISS)
6.D. Jennings (OK)
7.Posey (HIT)
8.Alvarez (OK)
9.N. Feliz
10.C. Santana (OK)

Things You Should Know

There’s an outfielder with the Red Sox who is a huge question mark heading into the 2013 major league season. A Cubs’ hurler is working back toward health. An ace from 2012 is having a hard time finding a job. The funniest major league baseball player on Twitter is trying to get his career back on track. Is the real Marlins’ slugger, you know that outfielder that changed his name, worth taking a shot on at the top of a draft? Finally, why can’t the guy who leads baseball in saves the past three years find a job?

Jacoby Ellsbury will hit leadoff for the Red Sox this season. Duh. It’s a huge season for Ellsbury personally, and for his fantasy outlook as well. I know that he had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 2011 (.321-32-105-119-39) but consider these facts before going all in with Ellsbury. (1) In two of the last three years he’s failed to appear in 75 games. (2) He’s has one season of 10 homers. (3) He’s had one 10/10 season. (4) He’s hit under .275 in two of the last three years. (5) The last time he stole 40 bases was 2009. Tread carefully.

Matt Garza‘s lat strain sounds like it will end up being a minor issue. He’ll likely start throwing in a few days to make sure that he’s physically good to go as he works his way back from last years elbow issue. I believe he’s currently a sold draft day bargain given his suppressed cost (the NFBC has him listed as the 42nd starting pitcher off the board). Remember, this guy is as stable an option as any in the game. He owns a 3.84 career ERA. That mark has been between 3.32 and 3.95 each of the past six years. His WHIP is 1.29 for his career. The mark has been between 1.18 and 1.26 each of the past five years. It should also be noted that that last two seasons he’s produced the two best K/BB ratios of his career (3.13 and 3.00), and for the first time his K-rate has been over 8.30 in two consecutive years.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a home. Turns out the draft pick compensation, a team could lose a first round draft pick if they sign Lohse, is causing a bunch of teams to be very wary of signing Lohse. I’d caution any team looking to sign him that they should also read his Player Profile to learn that the guy they are looking to buy might not actually be the guy they think they are getting.

Logan Morrison has started to run on a treadmill as he works his way back from knee surgery that he had in September. Hard to think that it’s been five months and he’s just starting to run is a good thing, but he did have his patella tendon repaired so it wasn’t a minor situation. The Marlins desperately need LoMo to help protect Giancarlo Stanton in what is shaping up to be a rather anemic lineup. Can LoMo fill that role even if he’s healthy? I have doubts. In 1,002 career at-bats, Morrison has gone deep just 36 times while batting .250, and that .339 OBP is nothing to get all worked up over either. The bottom line is that he’s failed to live up to expectations to this point, unless we’re talking about his work on Twitter which is flipping excellent. Will 2013 be the turnaround to what ails him? Speaking of Stanton…

Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the noggin’ by a pitch from phenom Jose Fernandez, but the good news is that he escaped serious injury – there is no concussion. The question that we should now all be asking is Stanton worthy of being a top-20 selection this year (he’s even been going in the first round on occasion). For his career, let’s give him a 550 at-bat season at his established levels, Stanton has produced a .270 average, 39 homers, 96 RBIs, 83 runs and seven steals. I know his potential is immense, but are those really first round numbers? Last season Josh Willingham hit .260 with 35 bombs, 110 RBIs, 85 runs scored and three steals. Have you heard anyone even talk about drafting Willingham in the top-100 overall this season? Just some food for thought.

I’m in love… with DORITOS Spicy Sweet Chili Flavored Tortilla Chips.

SO YOU WANT TO DRAFT A CLOSER?

Jose Valverde is still looking for a home, and it doesn’t sound like the Tigers are any more inclined to bring him back into the fold now than when they let him walk after his contract expired. This story may seem like nothing, especially since Valverde is no longer the pitcher he once was (his K/9 rate has literally gone down for 6-straight years and it was just 6.3 per nine last year), but there is this angel to consider.

Last season Valverde had 35 saves, tied with John Axford for 8th in baseball.

Over the last two years Valverde has 84 saves, the second most in baseball (Craig Kimbrel has 88).

Over the last three years Valverde has 110 saves, the most in baseball.

The guy with the most saves in baseball, the most, can’t find a job. Major league teams don’t even value the save. You shouldn’t overspend on draft day for closers… it’s such a fickle position.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers