Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: NLCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the National League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Phillies and the Giants. Here is a link to the ALCS Preview in case you missed it.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg headed to DL on Thursday with strained flexor tendon.

(2) Giants awarded Cody Ross. You can also read more about the Giaints’ outfield situation at GoldenGateGiants.com.

(3) Johnny Damon awarded to the Red Sox.

(4) Manny Ramirez likely to be placed on waivers this week.

(5) Ricky Nolasco (knee) might be done for the year.

By Ray Flowers

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

The Day in Baseball – April 15

Today is a special day as every player in baseball will be wearing the number 42 as a tribute to Jackie Robinson, the man who broke the color barrier in major league baseball. A year ago I wrote my thoughts down about Jackie Robinson – how special a person he was, and what his lasting legacy would be. It’s still as poignant today as it was then. Here is the link to Here’s to You Mr. Robinson.

Jacoby Ellsbury can’t take deep breaths without having a sharp pain in his side. I’m no doctor, but that sounds like a serious issue with his rib cage. That return date of Friday isn’t going to happen. Ellsbury will go for more tests on Friday to determine what’s going on and if a DL stint is needed.

Jose Guillen is a man on a mission. Whether that mission is to return to relevance on the ball field, to work his way out of Kansas City, or just to be healthy again, Guillen is making noise. He has certainly placed his stamp on the season having gong deep in each of the past four games with a total of five homers and eight RBI. Don’t forget that Guillen has gone deep at least 20 times in each of his last five healthy seasons during which time he has averaged 92 RBI a season (he had only 241 at-bats in 2006 and just 281 last season). As for the last part, he obviously seems healthy, a fact that he no longer takes for granted after he literally feared for his life this offseason because of blood clots. “The doctor started talking about dying,” he said. “I didn’t even know what a blood clot was. It was so bad that I couldn’t feel my legs.” You can read more about the harrowing experience at Guillen Almost Died.

Francisco Liriano looked like the “old” Liriano today. He threw seven shutout innings against the Red Sox striking out eight. If he throws strikes this season, he could have a ton of success given that he has rediscovered about three mph on his fastball and some bite on that once nasty slider.

Bud Norris – that’s a young arm I really like. He may struggle at times since he really doesn’t have a third pitch, but when he is on, he can dominate batters. He did just that on Thursday allowing the Cardinals only a single unearned run in five innings. He whiffed nine in the victory.

I was pleasantly surprised today watching Scott Olsen pitch today. I know he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings to the Phillies, but he actually pitched much better than that – though I still wouldn’t count on him to be effective enough to be a weekly option in NL-only league. At the same time, I wasn’t at all impressed by J.A. Happ who continues to work with a massive rabbit’s foot in his pocket. Somehow he didn’t allow an earned runs despite walking six batters in 5.1 innings. He’s walked eight guys in 10.1 innings this season yet he owns a 1.65 ERA. Just like I said last year, a correction is a coming.

David Ortiz is hitting .154 with 13 Ks in 26 at-bats, and all you hear about is the fact that he could be the worst hitter in the history of baseball, which makes me wonder – why is it that J.D. Drew is basically getting a pass despite being just as awful (.143 with 13 Ks in 28 at-bats)?

I’m totally shocked that Jeff Suppan gave up four runs in five innings in his season debut. Actually the only shock is that it was only four runs.

Carlos Zambrano threw 123 pitches today — and only lasted five innings. Besides the stupidity of allowing anyone to throw that many pitches in just five innings, how could anyone let someone do that in the second week of the regular season? And people say that Dusty Baker abuses his pitchers.

By Ray Flowers

Movement All Around

I’m still ticked off that Jim Thome was moved to the Dodgers. Not only does that kill his value for a couple of teams that I have him, the deal also came down after I set my lineups for this week meaning I’ll likely get two or three at-bats out of my UT spot this week. Great. If you want to read some actual analysis of the deal and not just me complaining about it, click on my Around the Horn piece. Make sure you read the part about the monster helmet that David Wright will be wearing now that he is back from a concussion. Good stuff – even if I’m biased cause I wrote it myself. And if you are wondering if it’s bad form to give yourself props about something you have written the answer is certainly yes, but I’m still going to do it anyway.

Good job Ray.

I mentioned it today in my Player Rater piece, but is there anyone out there that knows that Michael Young has an 18-game hitting streak? That guy is flat out money, the Ichiro of the infield if you wish – minus the steals, the cool name and the sweet gliding stroke.

Am I the only one getting whiplash from all of these rookies being called up? I remember back in the day when I didn’t care about who the 33rd guy was on the Giants. Now that it’s my job, man, this is a lot of work.

Let me see if I got this right. The Brewers ostensibly sent J.J. Hardy to the minors under the auspices of two main lines of thought. (1) Hardy was hitting only .229 with a .367 SLG so he was hitting terribly. No disputing that fact. (2) The club wanted to give flashy youngster Alcides Escobar a chance to show his wares in the majors which he has done pretty well hitting .286 over 49 at-bats. He has made three errors in 17 games, but overall he has been pretty much as advertised. However, there is a third and more insidious reason that Hardy was sent to the minors; it was to avoid paying him money or in the least to maintain control over him for another season. Turns out that by sending him down for three weeks the Brewers were able to delay his free agency until after the 2011 season. Real classy Brewers.

The Royals did the same thing to their third basemen, Alex Gordon, when they sent him to the minors ostensibly because he was struggling after fighting his way back from hip surgery to return to the field. Gordon was hitting .222 with a .643 OPS in about a month’s worth of games with the Royals, so like Hardy he wasn’t exactly tearing it up, but it appears that this decision was merely undertaken to push Gordon’s free agency back to after the 2013 season. In the Brewers case at least they had a real reason, after all they are super high on Escobar, but the Royals have no one to plug into third if Gordon isn’t there. Not just that, wasn’t Gordon supposed to be their franchise player? I’m almost willing to give the Royals the benefit of the doubt here, after all they did bring in guys like Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth who have contracts that far outpace their on-field work, but even if I do give the club a free pass, I think the way they are handling Gordon is awful. If he wasn’t healthy, wouldn’t it make more sense to give him three more weeks at Triple-A and then recall him to the majors for good versus the other way around? Overall Gordon is hitting .307 with a .985 OPS in 75 minor league at-bats, so it’s not doing him much good spending time on the farm.

Isn’t it fitting that the best lefty in baseball, Johan Santana (elbow) had surgery the same day that his teammate and arguably the biggest left-handed tease in the game, Oliver Perez (knee), also went under for a medical procedure? Both should be fine for the start of 2010, though that means something totally different for both hurlers – one will likely return to excellence, the other will just be trying to avoid hitting batters who are in the on-deck circle.

One last positive note. It likely won’t have any bearing on a single fantasy team, but it’s great news that Aaron Boone has made a miraculous recovery from open heart surgery and he has been added to the Astros roster. Good for you Aaron.

By Ray Flowers