Around the Horn: August26, 2011

(1) Giants/Padres deal for Heath Bell doesn’t materialize. Giants left with wounded Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

(2) Johan Santana likely done for year (possibly Jonathan Niese as well). Jose Reyes hopefully back next week.

(3) Indians place Josh Tomlin/Michael Brantley on DL. Shin-Soo Choo hurt. Jim Thome now an Indian.

(4) Curtis Granderson having a historic season for the Yankees.

(5) Travis Snider wrist injury ends his season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

 

By Ray Flowers

Random Musings

Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.

Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.

Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.

Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.

If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.

The last 28 days did you know…

Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.

Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?

Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.

Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.

Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.

Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July7, 2011

(1) Jose Reyes likely out three weeks for Mets.

(2) Is Dan Uggla as bad as you think?

(3)  Everyone is freaking out about Drew Stubbs – why?

(4) Who is Jeff Karstens and should you care about him?

(5) Pablo Sandoval is hot – 17-game hitting streak.

 

 

By Ray Flowers

 

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

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With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 SS for 2011

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Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Shortstops for 2011 an explain why I ranked Jimmy Rollins ahead of Jose Reyes.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?.

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

ROLLINS vs. REYES

I was the only voter on staff who listed Rollins ahead of Reyes as the Mets’ shortstop was listed third on everyone else’s ballot (I had Reyes 4th). Moreover, Rollins fell to as low as 7th in the staff voting. Here is my defense of my selection of Rollins over Reyes.

(1) Both players were injured in 2010 limiting their production (Reyes appeared in 133 games, Rollins 88). While injuries have bogged down Reyes the last two years – he appeared in only 36 games in 2009 – Rollins had appeared in at least 137 games in each of the previous nine seasons, an in fact he had appeared in at least 154 games in eight of those nine seasons. He clearly has a durability advantage over Reyes.

(2) Not only am I concerned about Reyes’ ability to stay on the field, I’m really concerned about his ability to be an elite base stealer because of his physical maladies. From 2005-08 Reyes never stole fewer than 56 bags, but over his last 169 games he has swiped a mere 41 bases. There is no disputing that he has more upside in the steal category than Rollins, but there is a massive difference in fantasy value if you are stealing 60 bases or 40. As for Rollins, he swiped 17 bases in half a season which put him on pace for what would have been a 7th straight season of at least 30 thefts.

(3) Since 2005, Reyes’ first full season in the bigs, he has scored 554 runs, the 17th most run in the game. In that time he also appeared in 802 games. As for Rollins, he appeared in 55 more games but scored 51 more runs scored for a total of 605, the 8th best mark in the game.

(4) Power – this is where Reyes takes a back seat to Rollins. Reyes has never hit more than 19 homers in a season, and since 2005 he has averaged 13 homers a year (if we remove his 36 games ’09 campaign). Rollins has hit 25 or more homers twice in his career, and since 2005 he has averaged 20 homers a year (if we remove his 88 game effort in 2010). That’s a pretty substabtial advantage for Rollins, about 35 percent worth.

(5) Neither man is a wonder when it comes to getting on base. In fact, a strong arguement could be put forward that neither man should actually be a leadoff hitter because, despite their speed, neither gets on base very well – Reyes owns a career OBP of .335 while Rollins is slightly lower at .328. For some perspective, the NL average since 2000, the first year of Rollins career, is .332. Face it, both of these men have ample skills, but getting on base isn’t one of them. To state it another way, unless they play everyday, and hit at the top their club’s batting order, their runs scored totals could lag because of their inability to get on base.

Let’s boil this down to 162 game efforts for each man. Here are their career marks.

Reyes: .286-13-66-111-58
Rollins: .272-17-72-108-37

Reyes has the advantage if the he can return to his previous levels of thievery, but I’m just not sure he will be able to in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

adrinna lima Pictures, Images and Photos

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Insights and Jed Wars

BBguys-Site Logo

Today I’m going to pause long enough from my sniffles, yes, I seem to have picked up another case of the cooties, to give my thoughts on a few of the pertinent issues in the game. I’ll also post a link at the end to a video I made for one of the expert baseball leagues I’m in this season.

Things are so spotty with the health of Lance Berkman (knee) that running 50-yard sprints at 75 percent is newsworthy. He still hopes to be back next week, though I really have no idea if that is a reasonable goal or not.

Want to know how fickle managers are when it comes to the ninth inning? Frank Francisco and Mike Gonzalez have already lost their closers jobs – though both teams have said they will regain them once they are back to throwing the ball as they can. It appears there might also be a changing of the guard in Toronto as well where manager Cito Gaston came out on Tuesday and said that he was no longer going to go with Jason Frasor as the exclusive closer. Gaston has changed his tune after going into the year saying he would pick just one guy, and now he will go with a different option in consecutive games. Certainly it hasn’t helped that Frasor has a loss and two blown saves, but come on now Cito. Don’t give us that B.S. that you don’t want to use the same guy in back-to-back games, just be honest with us and say that Frasor has been awful and Kevin Gregg deserves a shot. No one is stupid enough to buy your explanation.

Conor Jackson is one of the odder leadoff men in the history of baseball from a physical standpoint. He’s obviously only there because the D’backs don’t have a better option, but I gotta say that his stroke basically looks like the mirror image of Joe Mauer. Seriously, it’s that pretty.

Nick Johnson crushed a homer today, way out of New Yankee Stadium. Gotta tell you though, everything that guy does makes me nervous. It’s kinda like the beautiful woman with the evening gown who looks like someone you’d like to take back to the hotel room until you see her walk in her heels which makes her look like a reject from gymnastics class who couldn’t balance on the balance beam. In the batters box the swing looks pretty, but when Johnson is doing anything other than swinging the lumber I just want to close my eyes.

Clayton Kershaw will never reach his potential if he keeps throwing so many pitches. For the record, Kershaw needed 110 pitches to record just 16 outs (5.1 innings) against the D’backs on Tuesday. You just can’t win too many ball games, or be a big game pitcher, if you can never make it out of the sixth inning. The talent is immense, but the lack of control with his pitches is certainly holding him back.

Manny Ramirez crushed a homer 435 feet on Tuesday with one of his effortless swings. Those people who predicted failure from him in 2010 just don’t get it. This guy is one of the top-10 right-handed hitters in the history of the game. Yeah, I said it.

It looks like the Mets will follow through on their plan to bat leadoff man Jose Reyes third in the lineup. Reyes will likely move back into the leadoff spot when Carlos Beltran returns from his knee injury, but that still might be a month or more away given that Beltran still hasn’t been allowed to run yet as the doctors continue to hold him back. Reyes is capable of handling the role, but he might be less inclined top run wild with the middle of the order right behind him.

And finally, for those of you who weren’t aware, I’m in JED WARS this season. What is Jed Wars? It’s an offshoot of Tout Wars, the preeminent fantasy baseball experts league in the country, and is named after Jed Latkin (for more on Jed you can given the movie Fantasyland a view at the link). Back to me, and let’s face it that’s what I’m always all about, you can click on my brief little intro at BaseballGuys Introduction if you want to get some insight into who I am complete with happy faced sweats, gnomes and a Nerd Herd hat from the television show Chuck.

By Ray Flowers