Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Dustin Ackley, what the heck happened to you? Weren’t you supposed to be a polished hitter, ready for immediate big league success after being taken 2nd overall in the 2009 Entry Draft? Not so much eh? Ackley does have a few things going for him in that he’s scored 68 runs (pace of 88) and has 12 steals (pace of 15). Those numbers, when combined with 41 RBIs (pace 53), mark him as a potential middle infield option in deep mixed leagues. However, when you look over and see that .229 batting, that outlook becomes an outdated one. You can’t give up on Ackley and what should be a successful career, but it’s pretty obvious at this point that he just hasn’t been able to put together consistent at-bats in the bigs, and that leaves his fantasy value teetering on the brink of irrelevance in many leagues (he’s only owned in 56 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

Aaron Cook has made 11 starts this year for the Red Sox, and he’s gone 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Clearly the Sox have had issues with their rotation or why would they have bothered to give Cook 11 starts. But that’s not my point here. Do you know that in 11 starts Cook has – 11 strikeouts? Eleven. One an outing. One every 5.6 innings or 1.60 per nine. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 60-innings in a season since 1950 that’s the 7th worst K/9 mark. George O’Donnell somehow had a 0.83 K/9 mark in 1954 with eight Ks in 87 innings. That was his only season in the big leagues.

The Astros’ owner, Jim Crane, is “open” to adding Roger Clemens to the club if the 50 year old proves he still has something left. Why not since the Astros have the worst record in baseball at 39-86, and according to my latest look at their roster they do not have a single player on their current roster making more than $750,000 other than Ben Francisco at $1.537 million. That’s embarrassing. How could you possibly be an Astros fan?

The Red Sox have placed Josh Beckett,  Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester on waivers. It’s unlikely any of the trio will be moved, but we have learned that the Dodgers have placed a claim on A-Gone meaning they have 48 hours to see if they can work something out with the Sox. Don’t count on that happening.

Albert Pujols‘ calf issue is improving, and he could be back in action as soon as this weekend for the Angels. That’s hugely important to Pujols owners considering that he had hit eight homers and driven in 19 runners in his first 19 games played in August. Who would have thought it, but it seems probable that Pujols will get to 30 homers and 99 RBIs for a 12th straight season. He may not get to .299, the mark he has posted each of his first 11 years, he’s at .283 right now, but he has hit .317 since the All-Star break so it’s possible that a strong finish could get him up to that mark.

Mike Trout leads baseball with 41 steals, and he’s also been caught just four times for a 91 percent success rate, a big time success rate that is hard to maintain from year to year. The only player in baseball with more than 30 steals who has been caught fewer times is Emilio “I can’t stay healthy” Bonifacio who has 30 steals in 33 chances. Given that he’s played in only 64 games this season, Emilio is on a 160 game pace of 75 thefts, a huge number in this day and age. Speaking of steals, Tony Campana, in limited playing time, has racked up a rather impressive total of 26 steals. I say that because he has appeared in just 70 games with a mere 158 at-bats. Campana is also sporting a pathetic OBP of .299, has knocked in five runs all year, and somehow has scored five less times (21) than he has stolen a base. Amazingly, the mighty mite has just one steal since June 30th which means he has one one theft in roughly two months.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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CRUSADER LEAGUES
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GLADIATOR LEAGUES
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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 7: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Johnny Cueto (+96, $379K in DailyJoust salary)
Through nine starts Cueto has a 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP an a 5-1 record. He’s also allowed more than two earned runs just once this season. Moreover, six times this year he’s left the game having allowed one or zero earned runs. Injuries limited him last year to 24 starts, but if we add in his nine starts this year we get 33 starts covering 215.1 innings, a full season of work for an “ace-like” arm. In those 33 starts he has gone 14-6 with a 2.22 ERA an a 1.10 WHIP so maybe talk of him being an “ace” is warranted. Still, he’s struck out an average of 5.93 batters per nine innings, more than a batter below the big league average, and his 2.41 K/BB ratio is pretty average. The grounders have led to am immense level of success and there is no end in sight.

Felipe Paulino (+60, $426K)
Through three starts for the Royals Paulino has a 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21 Ks in 18.2 innings. A long time power arm, Paulino has 344 Ks in 366.1 innings in his career. He’s struggled with two things in his career – health and consistency. Well he’s already been hurt this year, so let’s hope that is out of the way. If he can just throw strikes, currently he’s sporting a 2.41 walk per nine mark which is more than a batter below his career rate, then he’s bound to have a lot of success even though few have seemed to have taken note (check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker).

CC Sabathia (+85, $425K)
A rock, CC has 65 Ks in 64.1 innings, and in each of his nine start he has gone at least six innings. The results haven’t been spectacular, he has a 3.78 ERA, but he gives you innings, Ks, pitches for the Yankees (leading to a 5-2 record), and never hurts you in the WHIP column (1.21). Expect the ERA to come down a bit as we move forward an expect him to continue to be one of the safest elite level arms in the game.

Max Scherzer (+46, $270K)
And that is why I kept telling everyone to keep the faith in Scherzer. The last time Mad Max took the hill he held the Pirates to two runs over seven innings as he allowed only five base runners. All of that is great news but it was the 15 punchouts that made it an elite effort. Fourth in baseball with 63 punchouts, Scherzer leads baseball with an 11.65 K/9 mark. You just don’t give up on an arm like that, even when it’s struggling to produce consistent results.

Ryan Zimmerman (+24, $90K)
Over his last three games Zimmerman has pushed his average up .025 points thank to seven hits. Struggling to find his way after injury, Zimmerman is still hitting just .257 with two homers and 12 RBI through 28 games. The lack of pop is what has really dragged him down so far as his .367 SLG is literally more than a hundred points low (career .476). Frequently injured, it seems like Ryan takes a while to find his groove once he returns. Seems like he just may have found that groove over the past few days.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Anthony Bass (-55, $185K)
He will be counted on heavily moving forward as it appears Cory Luebke will undergo Tommy John surgery. Bass has made eight starts and only once time has he allowed more than three earned runs resulting in a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also whiffed 51 batters in 53 innings showing a rather powerful right arm. Impressively, he’s actually been more effective on the road (2.57 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22 Ks in 21 IP) than at home (3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 29 Ks in 32 IP), and that means something when your home games are at Petco Park.

Hiroki Kuroda (-52, $178K)
Through eight starts he has been awful twice and solid ever other time he’s taken the hill. I’ve gotten so many questions about the guy after his last outing, but just remember this – before his last outing against the Blue Jays his ERA was 3.56 and his WHIP was in the 1.30′s. If you were expecting more from him hit season in New York you likely had set your sights too high.

Madison Bumgarner (-46, $276)
From April 10th through May 10th MadBum went 5-0 while allowing a total of six earned runs. Yeah, he was dominating. The last two times he’s taken the bump have been far from impressive – he’s allowed eight earned runs over 13.1 innings leading to two loses – but on the year the guy has a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and has looked every bit like the guy who might be ready to elevate his game even further this season.

Josh Beckett (-37, $279K)
I don’t know how his value has dropped the past week given that he’s worked 14.2 innings while striking out 14 batters an allowing one earned run in two victories. Putting behind him the seven runs he allowed to the Indians, Beckett is back to being a strong option on the hill for the Red Sox, and fantasy squads. In his eight starts he has six quality starts an overall his 40 Ks in 49.1 innings and 1.28 WHIP are solid enough to offset a somewhat elevated 4.28 ERA.

Denard Span (-19, $61K)
Span went hitless his last two games of the week but he still has six hits in his last five games. Hitting .291 on the year with four steals, Span is the type of player who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. He will be an average booster (career .285) and he has the speed to be a 20+ steal guy, but he has no power and with the Twins struggling to consistency put up runs he’s scored just 17 times in 37 games despite a solid .359 OBP.

DAILY CONTEST

You can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review

I like to hold myself accountable, and I started that process yesterday when I took a look at my thoughts about a handful of hitters that I profiled in depth. Today, I’ll continue that process by taking a look at the pitchers I reviewed at the beginning of the 2011 season.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run

To see my review of the hitters click on the link to Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Aaron Harang: 14-7, 3.64 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.37 WHIP in 170.2 IP
“At this point Harang should be viewed as nothing more than a solid depth starter in mixed leagues because he still has to prove he can effectively take the ball 30 times before you should think about going all in with him. Still, the early returns are positive and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario in which he shouldn’t be rostered in a 12 team mixed league.”

Harang didn’t make 30 starts though he got close with 28. His ERA was as good as his heyday (it was 3.83, 3.76 and 3.73 from 2005-07), and his WHIP was two hundredths off his career mark of 1.37. He also won 14 games, the third highest total of his career. His K-rate was down nearly a full batter though at 6.54 per nine (career 7.37). He had a solid season, thanks in no small part to Petco Park.
TRIPLE

Kevin Slowey: 0-8, 6.67 ERA, 34 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 59.1 IP
“At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year.”

A total failure because of injuries. Slowey only started eight games for the Twinkies, and though he did some nice things such as posting a terrific 6.80 K/BB ratio, pretty much every other facet of his game blew chunks.
SINGLE

Rafael Betancourt: 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 73 Ks, 0.87 WHIP in 62.1 IP
“… if your weapon of choice is an NL-only league, then you’ve found a bullpen ace to target in Betancourt.”

Betancourt took over as the closer late in the year for the Rockies as Huston Street was once again injured (Rafael ended the year with eight saves). Just how good was Rafael this year? He was probably the best pitcher in baseball after the All-Star break.

2nd half: 0.33 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 13.00 K/9, 39.00 K/BB

Also, like I wrote about in The Strikeout: Relievers back in February, Betancourt is now the only pitcher in the history of the game, THE ONLY ONE, with a 9.50 K/9 mark an a 4.35 K/BB ratio in more than 500 career innings (9.64 K/9, 4.65 K/BB in 560 IP).
HOME RUN

Tim Stauffer: 9-12, 3.73 ERA, 128 Ks, 1.25 WHIP in 185.2 IP
“Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.”

He really limped to the finish line frustrating many owners, but overall Stauffer was as good as advertised for the Padres. He eclipsed his career-high in innings pitched by 103, but still match his career marks in ERA (3.73 in 2011, 3.92 for his career), WHIP (1.25 and 1.31) and K/9 (6.20 and 6.17) while bettering his career GB/FB (1.82 and 1.50) and walk rate (2.57 per nine, 3.03 for his career).
HOME RUN

Josh Beckett: 13-7, 2.89 ERA, 175 Ks, 1.03 WHIP in 193 IP
I could sit here and tell you I was right, and I was spot on with Beckett. Do yourself a favor though and read the piece to show you why a little good detective work by yours truly should have given you all the confidence in the world with Beckett for 2011 – Is Josh Beckett Finished?
HOME RUN

Rafael Soriano: 2-3, 4.12 ERA, 8.24 K/9, 1.30 WHIP in 39.1 IP
“In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings… Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?”

Soriano made his 15 innings, but not by a hell of a lot. Once again, The Brittle One was beset by injuries that limited his innings on the bump. Unlike the recent past though, his performance suffered even when he was on the hill (his K/9 rate fell from a 9.49 career mark, and he walked 4.12 batters per nine versus a 2.82 career mark per nine). The Yankees overpaid for an injured hurler who failed to live up to expectations when on the field.
DOUBLE

By Ray Flowers

Follow the Playoff Race

Despite the fact that the beginning of the NFL season is occupying much of the sports world’s interest, it’s about time to start checking your direcTV guide for MLB playoff times, as the postseason is just around the corner. In fact, the postseason is also nearly set, with the tightest pennant race taking place in the American League West, where the Angels have slowly but surely gained ground on the Rangers. Aside from this, and barring some very improbably comebacks and collapses, the postseason’s team roster is just about set – though the Red Sox seem to be making every effort to change that.

Thursday night the Red Sox continued their suddenly dramatic-looking late season slide by losing a 9-2 romp at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox – losers of 2 of their last 10 games and 11 of their 14 contests in September – were surely hoping for something of a turnaround. However, they lost to the Rays for the fourth time in a week, and with three more contests between the Sox and the Rays it’s possible that there could be a dead heat in the AL Wild Card race by the end of the weekend (the Sox are currently three games ahead, and both club have 13 games remaining). Don’t forget that the Sox entered September leading the AL East ahead of the Yankees as well.

Why has the team struggled so greatly of late? Injuries have certainly played a key roll.

Josh Beckett should return to the hill today after missing some time with an injured ankle. He’s been fantastic this year with a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 27 outings.

Kevin Youkilis has fallen apart. Youkilis has a hip issue, and a hernia situation that will likely require surgery at the end of the season. Youk is hitting a mere .167 in September as the team has fallen apart.

Jed Lowrie continues to deal with a shoulder issue that last limited him to just one hit in September in 24-bats.

In terms of performance, Carl Crawford can’t keep his batting average over .250 (it’s currently at .249).

Daniel Bard has a loss in each of his last three appearances and in 4.2 innings in September he’s allowed eight runs.

Things have been so bad of late that Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 0.41 ERA and 0.36 WHIP in 22 innings since the All-Star break, hasn’t been handed a save opportunity since August 18th.

Once again, the AL East is providing most of the drama as we inch closer to the playoffs.

Can the Rays catch the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot and send the BoSox home without a playoff birth?

Can the suddenly hot Cardinals, now just 4.5 games out, catch the Braves for the NL Wild Card? Will the Rangers be able to hold off the Angels, whom the lead by 3.5 games, in the AL West?

No matter who makes it to the playoffs, be sure to check out the direcTV Guide for the scheduled times of the playoff matchups.

Best Duo Ever?

Do the Braves have the best lefty-righty duo in modern big league history out of the bullpen?

Craig Kimbrel is up to 39 saves, the highest total in baseball. Kimbrel is also sporting a 14.51 K/9 mark and that mark would be the 7th best mark in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed 60 innings in a season. Kimbrel has allowed eight hits in his last 16.2 innings and on the year he is holding batters to a .174 BAA. Oh yeah, his last blown save was on June 8th (he’s converted 21-straight chances).

Jonny Venters has even better ratios with a 1.11 ERA an a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also struck out more than a batter per inning 0 79 in 72.2 innings – and he’s given up only one long ball on the year (he’s given up only two in his career of 155.2 innings). Why only one homer allowed? Look at that INSANE ground ball rate of 74.8 percent. That’s nearly impossible to sustain, though after last years 68.4 percent mark Venters is starting to look like a guy who might be able to maintain that phenomenal rate. Oh, and good luck getting a hit off him as he’s even better in terms of batting average against with a .156 mark.

Just how good is the duo this season? I’m going to add their numbers together and then compare it to some of the ace starting pitchers in the league. Prepare to be shocked. Kimbrel/Venters would be in the NL Cy Young award talk if they posted these numbers as a starting pitcher.

Braves duo: 13-3, 1.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 3.27 K/BB in 135.1 IP

Josh Beckett: 10-5, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.43 K/BB in 157 IP
Roy Halladay: 15-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 7.91 K/BB in 189.2 IP
Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 4.43 K/BB in 172 IP
Clayton Kershaw: 15-5, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 4.33 K/BB in 183.2 IP
Justin Verlander: 18-5, 2.31 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 4.86 K/BB in 202.2 IP
Jered Weaver: 14-6, 2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 3.76 K/BB in 188.1 IP

See what I’m saying about Kimbrel/Venters being elite? If you get a chance to watch the duo work the 8th and 9th innings do yourself a favor and do it. Pull up a chair, crack open a beer, and watch why  Braves’ game are done after seven innings – you simply aren’t going to score against this duo.

RANDOM MUSINGS – Stephen Strasburg

Don’t get too excited about Stephen Strasburg. If he has any kind of physical hiccup the Nationals will shut him down, an in his next minor league outing he’ll be limited to 65 pitches. Strasburg will likely be really good when he’s on the hill, but I’m thinking he’s a five inning type the ROTW, so don’t go overboard with your expectations for 2011. Also, for those of you in keeper leagues, look at how the Nationals handled Jordan Zimmerman this season if you want to know what to expect from Strasburg next year. That’s right, I’m thinking 160 innings for SS next year, so factor that in to your 2012 rankings.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 2, 2011

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.

Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth

Sample size people.

Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.

(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.

(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.

(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.

Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.

2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F

Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK

Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?

Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.

Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.

Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub

Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.

Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.

I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.

Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton

The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.

Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.

Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.

Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.