Around the Horn: April 22, 2011

(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.

(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?

(4) James Loney looks terrible.

(5) Mat Latos struggling.

(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 12, 2011

Photo by Ted Kerwin

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

All preseason I said to be wary of Justin Morneau and Morales, though I don’t think most listened. Morneau has been healthy and on the field which is great news, but he has looked bad at the dish (.258/.303/.355). However, at least he is playing. Morales still is on the sidelines, and the exciting news here is that he will try to run on Tuesday or Wednesday. Think about that. He isn’t running without pain from an injury that occurred last May. I know Morales was really good in 2009, but let’s compare his numbers from that season to what Huff did last year for the Giants.

Morales: .306-34-108-86-3 with a .924 OPS
A. Huff: .290-26-86-100-7 with a .891 OPS

Huff is healthy, off to a a solid start (seven RBI in 10 games), and qualifies at first base and outfield. I see no reason why everyone wouldn’t prefer to roster Huff over the still working his way back into game shape Morales.

What do you think of this trade… I give up Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Howard for Adrian Gonzalez? I’d be left with David Aardsma as my top RP.
– @The_Real-Hart

I know everyone is ga-ga over A-Gone with his move to the Red Sox, and he has been productive so far hitting .297 with seven RBI in 10 games, but I’m a bit confuse by this proposal. Howard has averaged 46 homers, 136 RBI and 99 runs the past five years. I know he is coming off his worst full season (31 homers, 108 RBI, 87 runs) and that he will almost certainly fail to match Adrian in terms of batting average (more on that below), but do you know how many times A-Gone has been able to match the worst effort of Howard’s career (31-108-87)? Try three times. You can talk to me all you want about Petco Park, but the fact is that Howard’s run production isn’t likely to fall too far behind the Sox new slugger. Oh, and I bet it would shock most of you to learn that there is only a four point advantage for Gonzalez in career batting average over the Phillies’ slugger (.284 to .280).

If that paragraph didn’t convince you to turn down the deal, this one should. You simply cannot leave your bullpen in the hands of only Aardsma – that would be a huge mistake. Aardsma is working his way back from injury and looking good in doing it, but it’s far from certain he will immediately start saving games for the Mariners. Even if we posit that he will, you’ll still need a second closer to have any shot at a respectable finish in the saves category. The Braves have settled on Kimbrel as their man in the 9th, sorry Johnny Venters owners, and through 24.2 big league innings Kimbrel has a K/9 mark of 17.15 – the best mark in the history of baseball (min 20 innings).

Turn this offer down.

Sam Fuld or Angel Pagan?
– @dekampanilya

I can’t believe the love fast starters get (I tried, even though no one seems to be listening, to tell people to slow their roll when it comes to the fast start of Willie Bloomquist in 2011 Player Profile: Willie Bloomquist). Fuld could be an even dicier option than Bloomquist who has at least had some success in the big leagues. Due to the retirement of Manny Ramirez there has been an opening for Fuld to pick up playing time, an that makes him someone of interest in an AL-only league. But in a mixed league there is no chance I would roster him, and there is about as much chance I would do so if I had to drop Pagan as there is of me being asked to marry Jessica Biel to help her to get over the loss of Justin Timberlake. If we remove Fuld’s game on April 7th we are left with an outfielder who has four steals in 105 career games. Toss in a total of one homer and a .263 average and, well, blah. To compare, last season Pagan was a huge disappointment in the second half and he hit .263 with five homers and 18 steals. Remember people, the amount of the 2011 baseball season that is over is akin to one game during the NFL’s 16 game season. I implore you to exercise some patience.

I was offered Josh Beckett for Phil Hughes. Take it?
– @walterchase

Why in the world wouldn’t you take the deal? Hughes is struggling with velocity right now, and though the word is that it’s a mechanical thing, tell me you aren’t concerned when you look at his pitching line and see that over his last 18 starts his ERA is 5.76, his hit per nine mark is 9.54, his WHIP is 1.43, his K/9 has dropped to 6.2 and his HR/9 mark is 1.89? Folks, that is awful work, and 18 starts and 20 appearances (100 innings) is a pretty good chunk of work to start drawing some conclusions. Think of it this way. As bad as Beckett was in 2010 his ERA was only 0.02 higher and his WHIP only 0.11 worse. On the flip side Beckett’s K/9 rate was a vast improvement over Hughes’ mark at 8.18 and his HR/9 mark was lower at 1.41. That’s right. As awful as Beckett was last year Hughes has actually been even worse over his last 20 appearances. Toss in the mph/mechanical concern, and the fact that Beckett wasn’t nearly as bad last season as some would lead you to believe (see Is Josh Beckett Finished?) and this is clearly a deal you have to accept.

Zack Britton or Chris Narveson in deep H2H league?
– @ronscrafano

Everyone loves the hot young stud don’t they? Britton is a lefty who has burst on to the scene because of the injury to Brian Matusz. In two starts Britton has allowed just one run going 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA. Britton has been groomed to be a top of the rotation starter, and his greatest asset is his ability to keep the ball on the ground. His control can be hit or miss at times, but for the most part he is a polished youngster who appears ready to take the ball every day. Of course, there are a couple of caveats. (1) He pitches in a park that favors hitters. (2) He pitches in the tough AL East. (3) He could lose his starting rotation spot when Matusz/Justin Duchscherer return to action. (4) He’s yet to throw 160-innings as a professional.

Narveson certainly doesn’t have the pedigree of Britton, an it would be shocking if ended up with the better career. That doesn’t necessarily mean he is the better fantasy option right now however. Over Narveson’s last 16 starts he has posted a strong set of ratios (3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) which have been reflective of his successful work on the hill as Narveson has also struck out an average of 7.7 batters per nine innings leading to a 2.86 K/BB mark. If Britton has a wildly successful rookie season he’s not likely to be able to match the ERA, WHIP or K/9 rate that Narveson has flashed over his last 16 appearances. I’m not saying Narveson is going to be an elite option in 2011, but for my money he’d be the hurler I would roster out of this duo.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Is Josh Beckett Finished?

A few weeks back there was an article in the Boston Herald written by John Tomase called Mound of facts against Josh Beckett in which he intimated that not only was John Beckett possibly done as a top level performer, but that the situation might even be more dire than that. Forgive me Mr. Tomase, but I think you’ve got your facts wrong, and I’ll lay out the case as to why Beckett still should have plenty of success in his future (to be fair, Mr. Tomase does end his piece with the following caveat: “It’s hard to fathom that Beckett could experience a similar fate, but for whatever it’s worth, the game’s entire history is working against him.”).

Fact: There have been 66 pitchers, who have produced 69 seasons, with an ERA above 5.75 in a season of at least 125 innings when the hurler was at least 30 years old.
Becket had an ERA of 5.78 over 127.2 innings in 2010 and he was 30 years old (injuries limited his innings).

Fact: History says that this list of hurlers failed to ever truly recapture their previous form, at least as a starting pitcher.
According to Tomase’s research, only three of the 66 hurlers “…managed to regain something even remotely approximating their form, at least as starters.”

This is the kind of trouble people get into all the time. It’s not that their facts are in error, it’s the interpretation of the data where the problems arise.

Here are the “facts” that people should pay attention to.

Fact 1: The history of hurlers being able to recapture their previous glory has no baring, absolutely none, on whether or not Beckett will be able to return to his previous form.

Fact 2: Beckett posted a K/9 rate of 8.18 in 2010, the 4th straight season that mark has been over eight, and the ninth time in 10 big league seasons that he has been over eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Fact 3: Though his walk rate was a bit elevated at 3.17 (career 2.77), his free pass rate was still better than the league average of 3.28.

Fact 4: His GB/FB ratio was 1.30, slightly better than his career average of 1.25, and the 8th straight season that mark has been above 1.20.

Fact 5: Beckett allowed a line drive rate of 19.0 percent which is slightly better than his career rate of 19.7 percent. Moreover, his ground ball rate was one percent above his career rate while his fly ball rate was a match for his career level.

Does any of that sound like a pitcher who is doomed to fail because history says he will? Of course not. The truth is that Beckett’s 2010 effort, despite his whopping 5.78 ERA, wasn’t that different from his “normal” effort. So why did he post an ERA that approached 6.00? I’ve got a couple of obvious explanations for the struggles, but here is the main point – flat out, he was unlucky.

(1) Given that his LD/GB/FB rates were all nearly identical to his career levels, it simply isn’t possible to explain why his BABIP rate was a career worst at .349, a full .044 points worse than his career average, unless we hang our hats on bad luck.

(2) When batters did hit the ball in the air it flew over the fence far too often. Becket has often surrendered gopher balls in bunches, but his career HR/9 mark of 1.01 isn’t awful, an in fact, it’s an almost dead on match for the league average. Somehow that mark jumped to 1.41 last year, this after 3-straight years between 0.76 and 1.06. Bad luck strikes yet again.

(3) Beckett allowed a HR/F ratio of 14.2 percent, the second worst mark in his 10-year career, and well above his career 11.0 percent rate (the big league average is usually 9-10 percent). Moreover, 2010 was only the third time in his career that he posted a mark over 10.5 percent.

(4) Beckett had a left on base percentage of 65.3 percent. Mind you the big league average is about 70 percent and that Beckett owns a career mark of 71.5 percent. Given that data you might have guessed that Beckett’s 65.3 percent mark was a career worst. If you came to that conclusion give yourself a pat on the back – you were correct.

Fact or Fiction: Beckett will return to being a top of the rotation arm?
Despite the interesting historical data in the Herald piece, I’m not buying the position that Beckett is finished. His underlying skills remain stable despite his terrible ERA from 2010, and there was clearly a whole heaping ton of bad luck tossed his way last season. With Beckett the key will be the same as it always is – can he stay healthy? If Beckett is healthy enough to throw 180+ innings in 2011, his performance will be strong despite the fact that history says he is fighting an uphill battle.

Around the Horn: July 16, 2010

(1) Justin Morneau to DL.

(2) Doug Davis to DL. Yovani Gallardo likely not to need minor league work.

(3) Edison Volquez to start on Saturday.

(4) Jordan Zimmerman closing in on possibly August return.

(5) Chase Utley has cast removed.

(6) Shin-Soo Choo hopes to avoid surgery on thumb.

(7) Josh Beckett may need one or two more minor league starts.

(8) Mat Latos to DL with side strain – from a sneeze?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg suffers first loss, being outpitched by Brian Bannister.

(2) Edwin Encarnacion stays with Blue Jays after passing through waivers.

(3) Josh Beckett (back) improving, but unlikely to return before All-Star Break.

(4) Gil Meche (shoulder) and Luke Hochevar (elbow) hope to rejoin Royals around the All-Star break.

(5) Johnny Cueto rebounds after rough start to June.

(6) Joey Devine (elbow) shut down again.

(7) Rays to stick with Wade Davis over Jeremy Hellickson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag – May 14th

I’m in a 12-team head-to-head mixed league and my pitching has been horrendous, to say the least, to start the season. I thought it would be one of my strengths, but so far my players just haven’t lived up to expectations. We start a typical 5-man rotation and I have Verlander, Beckett, Kazmir, Floyd, Zambrano and Niemann as my mainstays. I’ve also been playing some matchups with Wade LeBlanc and Brett Myers and have added some solid arms in Colby Lewis and Derek Holland. I’m not too concerned about Beckett, but Kazmir looks very hittable and Floyd has just been plain awful. I’m also not sure if Zambrano will ever find his way back into the starting rotation. Do you think I need to make a move for another more reliable arm or will my rotation improve enough to allow me to compete?
– Mike, Boston, MA

Well Mike, I have to compliment you on rostering a tremendous group of arms. Obviously not all of these arms are currently on your roster, but I thought I would run through the 10 arms mentioned and give my quick thoughts on each before giving my recommendation.

Justin Verlander: A top of the rotation hurler. Verlander routinely throws high 90′s gas late into games, is currently sporting a solid 8.51 K/9 mark, and has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts.

Josh Beckett: His back issue seems minor. As for his performance, I have no idea where his .365 BABIP has come from (career .303), nor his inability to locate his pitches early on (his 3.51 BB/9 mark would be his worst mark since 2003 and is three-quarters of a batter above his career rate of 2.76). I think he should be fine and is a great buy low candidate – provided he is healthy.

Scott Kazmir: Will get at least one more shot at staying in the rotation for the Angels, but his performance has been troubling. His fastball speed is 90.1 mph, a career low, and the third straight year of a mph decrease. His vaunted slider? That one is down to 79.4. It was 84 mph in 2006. You cannot have success with a 1.26 K/BB mark.

Gavin Floyd: He has a 6.92 ERA but his Fielder Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) is just 4.16. The problem this year has been the walk (3.69 compared to a mark below 3.10 each of the past three years) and the fact that his BABIP rate is .371 (career .296). He is primed for a turnaround.

Carlos Zambrano: Will remain in the pen for now, but I would be shocked if that lasted all year (Carlos Silva and/or Tom Gorzelanny will eventually fail). In 27 innings this season Big Z has 32 Ks (10.67 K/9) and his current 2.67 K/BB mark is a career best. All of this has occurred despite and absurd .482 BABIP mark (career .283).

Jeff Niemann: More of what we saw last season. He won’t maintain his current ratios (2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP), not with the same K/BB (2.15 this year vs. 2/12 last year), HR/9 (0.82 vs. 0.85) and GB/FB (1.06 and 1.03) rate as last year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to match his marks of last season.

Wade LeBlanc: He simply doesn’t have the stuff to sustain his early success (1.61 ERA, 7.39 K/9), but he also shouldn’t be saddled with his current WHIP of 1.46. He has balanced out his massive .356 mark by not allowing a single home run and is a solid depth arm at the back of a rotation, though not someone you want to start in all matchups.

Brett Myers: It may not always be pretty with Myers, but in seven starts he has four “quality starts” and every time out he has gone at least six innings. He’s had success by throwing strikes (his 2.54 BB/9 mark would be a career best) and by not being beaten like a piñata deep (0.78 HR/9 versus a career mark of 1.33).

Colby Lewis: His return to the States has gone swimmingly with a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.66 K/9 mark. You’d have to think he has been a bit fortunate given his 7.8 HR/F mark, .273 BABIP and 0.79 HR/9, but it has been a wonderful first seven starts with the Rangers.

Derek Holland: The arm of the future for the Rangers, Holland had a great first outing in which he held the A’s scoreless for six innings. He has the stuff to be successful for a decade, and it looks like the Rangers might move Matt Harrison to the bullpen to allow Holland to remain in the rotation.

To review:

Verlander is a horse.
Floyd and Beckett should rebound and be just fine.
Kazmir seems done.
Niemann is a nice arm to hold on to.
Zambrano – sooner or later I’m assuming he returns to starting.
LeBlanc is only a spot starter.
Myers is a solid depth arm.
Lewis is bringing the heat, but you might want to sell high.
Holland has tons of potential, but will he reach it in 2010?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May11, 2010

(1) Uh oh – Brad Lidge has elbow stiffness.

(2) Franklin Morales to DL. Manny Corpas to close for Rockies.

(3) Joe Mauer back catching for Twins.

(4) Nelson Cruz back in lineup on Friday for the Rangers.

(5) Josh Beckett will miss Friday start with back injury.

(6) Ryan Braun out of lineup with sore elbow.

(7) J.J. Hardy to DL with wrist injury.

(8) Braves juggle lineup – Martin Prado and Jason Heyward to bat 1-2.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May10, 2010

(1) Jair Jurrjens felt a pop in hamstring during rehab. Will be sent for an MRI.

(2) Jason Heyward to return on Tuesday from his groin injury.

(3) Huston Street off on minor league rehab stint – should be back in two weeks with the Rockies.

(4) Troy Tulowitzki will avoid DL but he will also likely miss a few days with his quadriceps injury.

(5) Oliver Perez will remain a starter for Mets despite 25 walks in 30 innings.

(6) Josh Beckett will have start pushed back to Friday with Tim Wakefield making a start.

(7) Dallas Braden perfect game anecdotes.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers