Ride The Wave

Fantasy baseball is all about riding the wave. Sometimes we paddle out and just wait, and wait, and wait. Other times we start paddling and we time the wave wrong and it just rolls by. But when everything breaks right, when the wave meets the right timing, the result is one heck of a ride. Here are some folks who have hit the wave or missed it through the first quarter of the 2013 baseball season.

Gordon Beckham (hand) will start his rehab this weekend, he hopes, and he should be back by the end of the month. Does anyone care?

Tony Cingrani has a sore shoulder so his next start will be pushed back and potentially skipped. With Johnny Cueto nearing a return, could Cingrani be DL’d or sent to the minors? Certainly possible. Oh, and this is one of the main reasons why I suggested going Tim Lincecum over Cingrani a month ago. We know that Lincecum can make 30 starts, something he has done the last five years. Cingrani? He’s never made 30 starts and we have no idea if he can handle that workload (he’s made 36 starts since the beginning of 2011). You can love those rookies, but as I keep saying, more often than not, they fail to live up to expectations.

Josh Donaldson have a strong start to the season. Donaldson had four more hits Tuesday night and is now hitting .314 on the year. He’s doubled his walk rate from last season, up from 4.8 percent to 10.7 percent, and if he can hold on to those gains that would be huge. He’s also seen his K-rate go down five percent, and when you combine patience with discipline, success follows.

To see how others are evaluating Donaldson and others, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Bryce Harper is dealing with some nausea, but the Nationals continue to insist that Harper did not suffer a concussion when he ran into the wall the other day and these bouts of feeling ill are not concussion related symptoms. I’ve been nauseous this season watching Barry Zito pitching on the road this year with an 11.25 ERA and 2.58 WHIP over three starts. He’s got a 0.55 ERA at home with a 1.03 WHIP in five home starts.

Paul Konerko returns to the lineup after sitting out the last two games to clear his head Wednesday. Through 33 games this season Konerko has been lost with a .214 average and .623 OPS. Konerko has hit at least 22 homers every year since 2004, and he’s had at least 75 RBIs in eight of the last nine seasons. He’s 37, but he should still be able to rebound from this rough start to be productive, even if he’s unable to reach his previous levels of expectation. A .235 BABIP, that mark has been over .300 the past three years, and a 25.5 percent line drive rate which would be a career best, hint at the potential comeback here. It’s also fair to guess that his 8.0 percent HR/F ratio will improve. He’s never had a mark below 12.2 percent in a career that began in 2002.

James Loney check in. He’s leading baseball with a .381 batting average. He’s hitting .391 in May and has shown no signs of slowing down… though of course he will soon. He’s hitting .446 on the road (25-for-56) and .478 against lefties (11-for-23). In his career he has hit .255 against left-handed pitching though he has hit .299 on the road.

Russell Martin had two more hits Tuesday as he returned from a neck issue. In his last nine games Martin has four games with at least two hits. He’s also gone deep four times with eight RBIs in that time as his average has gone from .227 to .273. All of a sudden this guy looks like a hitter again.

Mitch Moreland is hot, hot, hot. He has hits in nine of last 10 games. In five of those games he had two hits. He also ripped three homers in his last two games and has gone deep six times in his last nine games. He’s pumped up his fly ball rate to 45 percent this season, five percent higher than normal, and he’s also sporting an 18.4 percent HR/F ratio, four percent above normal. If he holds on to those gains we could be looking at a 20-25 homer bat this season (he hit 16 and 15 big flies the last two years).

Nikita, starring Maqqie Q, is a pretty good series. Hot babes shooting guys, strong action scenes too. It was re-upped for a fourth season, but in a limited run, so you had better start watching before it moves to DVD.

Carlos Zambrano finally got a big league job when he signed a minor league deal with the Phillies (he had previously agreed to a deal with the independent Long Island Ducks). Can you believe that Big Z is 31 years old? At least he can take the ball whenever a team wants him to. Perhaps a workhorse in the bullpen?

Draft Day Challenge, April 25

Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.

*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.

MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).

What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).

Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.

For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).

When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.

So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.

THURSDAY MATCHUPS

For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.

CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo

JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.

Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs

Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.

Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.

SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll

It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).

Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado

Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.

SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino

Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).

Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.

OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki

Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill

Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.

Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.

Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.

Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

 

 

 

 

Mailbag: August23, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who wins: C.J. Wilson $11, Colby Rasmus $8, Matt Holliday $30, Arod $33, Kyle Seager $6 for Mike Trout $15?
– @BradfordEra

I know what I would do here, but apparently my position on the matter is the exact opposite of what everyone else on Twitter seems to think.

Trout has been phenomenal. He’s currently hitting .343 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs, 97 runs scored and 39 steals in a mere 101 games. Still, as I’ve written time after time, Trout can’t possibly perform at this level year after year. I know, I know, no one agrees with me, in fact people vehemently disagree with me and think he is going to hit .333 with 30 homers and 50 steals every year, but I’m not changing my point of view on the matter. Let’s talk again a year from now. Regardless, Trout will go for three times that $15 cost in many, if not all leagues next year, so he is an amazing value for 2013 at just $15.

Still, I’d take the other side.

Wilson has slumped of late, but he is well on his way to a third straight solid season and the $11 cost for him is reasonable. He’ll go for more than $11 in many mixed leagues next year.

Rasmus has certain holes in his game, and he’s about as inconsistent as they come, but he’s still already posted 20 homers and 66 RBIs this season, and for $8 he’s a solid value who will likely go for twice as much on draft day 2013.

Holliday at $30 is a wee bit steep for some (not this scribe), that is until you look at his production. On pace for another .300-30-100-100 effort, Holliday is about as stable a top level option as there is in the game. He’s a rock. Building around him at $30, there is nothing wrong with that at all.

Arod at $33 – no way you keep him for that. I wouldn’t even keep him for $23. At this point, I may not even keep him at half the cost of his keeper value. Drop Arod after the deal is completed.

Seager for $6 is a nice deal too. He’s only appeared in 14 games at second this year, but that might give him second base eligibility in some leagues. Regardless, he has 13 homers and 68 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s a sneaky play that could return twice his draft day cost in value.

I’d do this deal provided that you don’t have to keep Rodriguez (he’d be an anchor at $33), but I could certainly see why someone would want to hold on to Trout since he is a special value.  As great a player as Trout is, the totality of the players you would be keeping, an at a solid cost, would give you a solid foundation to build around. Plus, the money that you would be saving on your keepers, since all but Arod come at a fair price, will afford you the ability to overspend a bit on draft day for a player or two.

Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey?
– @DaReelGiamcarlo

Both these guys are rolling right now.

Medlen has won each of his last three starts, and the last two times he has taken the hill he hasn’t allowed a single run. Going back a bit further, Medlen has allowed a total of three runs in his five starts for the Braves. Three. In those five outings Medlen has a 0.83 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, eight strikeouts per nine innings an a 5.80 K/BB ratio. That’s about as good as you can pitch. Add in an impressive 1.94 GB/FB ratio on the season and you’ve got a fella who is (a) performing at optimal levels and (b) a rate that he can’t possibly sustain.

Harvey has the bigger arm, and he likely has the brighter future. In six starts this season Harvey has 43 punchouts in 36 innings, and that has led to an impressive 10.75 K/9 mark. He’s been walking a few too many batters, but with all those punchouts his 2.87 K/BB ratio is still solid. Harvey has also allowed just two runs while walking three batters and striking out 17 over his last two outings. There’s nothing wrong with Harvey’s performance to this point for the Mets, but there is this – he’s on an innings pitched count. The Mets have professed that they want to keep Harvey in the 165-70 range with innings this season. That makes sense given that he threw 135.1 innings last season, not to mention that the Mets have nothing to play for so there is no need to risk the future. By the way, Harvey has thrown 146 innings thus far.

I’d go with Medlen who is pitching better and doesn’t have an innings pitched count to worry about.

Jonathan Lucroy, Geo Soto, Alex Avila, Josh Donaldson @ catcher next 2 weeks?
– @kevin5464

As we get toward the end of the season, I’ve gotten a few questions like this one with people wanting me to give advice on short-term situations. Here’s the truth everyone – I have no idea. No one does. Simply put, the sample size is just too small. Take this example.

The last two weeks Todd Frazier is hitting .469 with five homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs and two steals. If you were only looking at two weeks with numbers like that you would have to say he was a better option the next two weeks than Adrian Gonzalez who has really struggled a bit the past two weeks (.217-4-13-5). How many people would prefer Frazier over A-Gone, even in the short-term? Probably not many.

Or how about this. Which player would you rather have based on their August numbers?

.253-2-10 with a .719 OPS
.389-2-10 with a 1.012 OPS

You just chose to keep John Jay (player #2) over Andrew McCutchen.

Two weeks is just too small a time frame to accurately predict how a batter will perform. If you’re gonna try look at things like where will the games be played, how many games will the batter have,  who are the hurlers on the hill that he will be facing, wow has the player performed the past few weeks and what is the players skill set?

Quickly, my thoughts on each guy.

Lucroy is hitting .325 with eight homers and 41 RBIs – in 200 at-bats. That is about as impressive a pace as any catcher could ever hope for (think of it, only 400 at-bats would lead to a .325-16-82 line at that pace). He hasn’t quite been that gutter since he returned from injury, he’s hit. 279 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 21 games, but that’s still solid production for a hitter who is clearly performing over his head.

Soto has six hits in his last four games. He’s also picked up an RBI in 4-straight games. Still, he’s hitting just .208 with a .643 OPS this season, and he hasn’t been much better with the Rangers since he was dealt to the American League (.236 with a .682 OPS over 16 games).

Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBIs last year, a simply tremendous effort for a backstop. This year, not so much. Avila is hitting just .250 with seven homers and 35 RBIs. He’s obviously not reaching any of last year’s benchmarks. Avila is hitting .294 with a .390 OBP in August, but he still has only one homer and 15 RBIs since the start of June (47 games).

Donaldson has been killing it with 12 hits in his last six outings as his average has shot up from .167 to .226. He is the definition of a hot player that is an intriguing add if you are looking for a quick boost. Could his addition lead to greatness for the next few weeks? Possibly. But as often happens, by the time you realize a guy is hot, like Donaldson, you’ve missed the best he has to offer. There’s no way he gets 12 hits in his next six outings. Not just that, his overall performance this season has been poor, and that three walk, 31 K effort really makes me nervous.

The best catcher this season has been Lucroy. He’d be my choice to roll with out of this quartet.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.