Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key players that have started off the season really hot, but tell you what you can really expect from them the rest of the season.
NBA: Streaming players for the fantasy playoffs?
MLB: Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Coco Crisp, Wilin Rosario, Chris Heisey, Matt Harvey, Dan Straily, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson
For all of you fantasy basketball players, Justin and Trevor talk about players that you can still find on your waiver wire who can help you win your fantasy basketball league. The guys also recap the first week of the 2013 MLB season and talked about which players came up huge. The guys make some serious predictions.
NBA: Carl Laundry, Derrick Favors, Kyle O’Quinn
MLB: Chris Davis, Tyler Flowers, Michael Morse, Josh Hamilton, Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Marmol, Kyuji Fujikawa, Yu Darvish
A forgotten player, that’s what we could call the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz. A power hitter that used to have speed, Cruz has lost his ability to steal bases due to continuing leg issues, and Josh Hamilton is no longer his running mate now that he has signed with the Angels. Because of those factors Cruz rarely is mentioned when talks get around power hitting outfielders (check out his current ADP is seeing him go off the board with the 117th selection overall). Why should you be interested in Cruz if he falls in your mixed league draft? If you’ve got five minutes I’ll be happy to explain to you why.
Cruz went 30/20 in 2009, his first big league season of more than 307 at-bats. The sky seemed to be the limit for the athletic, power hitting monster out of Texas. Alas, he’s never reached those homer or steals totals again. Here are his marks in each category since 2009.
2009: 33 homers, 20 steals
2010: 22 homers, 17 steals
2011: 29 homers, nine steals
2012: 24 homers, eight steals
Let’s deal with the steals first.
Cruz has solid speed, and obviously knows how to swipe a bad, but the problem is that he is always seemingly dealing with some injury to his bottom half. As a result, he’s just not running anymore. The last two years he has attempted 14 and 12 steals. Remember, he went for 37 steals in 2009-10. Those days aren’t likely to come back, so 10 should be the upside of expectations with Cruz.
If you haven’t caught Arrow on the CW, I would recommend it. Solid show that’s superhero in nature but more along the lines of Christopher Nolan than Tim Burton. The show features Katie Cassidy, the daughter of David Cassidy, you know The Partridge Family guy. Well done David… on both counts.
As for the power with Nelson, it’s all about at-bats. Oddly, Cruz had a career best 585 at-bats last year and he only went deep 24 times. The previous three years, while he was averaging 28 homers a season, his average at-bat total was 445. IF he can stay healthy 30 homers seem very doable for Cruz. In fact, per 550 at-bats in his career Cruz has averaged 29 homers a season. Why did his total drop last season relative to his at-bat total? The reason can be explained with two measures. (1) He posted his lowest fly ball rate in four years at 40.8 percent (his career mark is 43.3 percent). (2) His HR/F ratio was a five year low at 13.1 percent (career 15.9 percent). Moreover, in three of the previous four seasons his HR/F ratio was over 18.5 percent. If both numbers return to ‘normal,’ as they easily could in 2013 and he stays healthy, that 30 homer season is coming.
As for the run production, Cruz is one of four outfielders to have at least 76 RBIs each of the past four seasons even though he has averaged just 480 at-bats a season (the others are Ryan Braun, Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter). Last season, with his health (159 games), he drove in a career bets 90 runners.
The batting average pretty much it what it is with Cruz. A .268 career hitter, you need to put out of your head that .318 mark in 2010 (399 at-bats) and that .330 average in 2008 (115 at-bats). In three of the last four seasons he has hit .260, .263 and .260. His career BB/K rate is 0.36. His career BABIP is .303. His career line drive rate is 16.9 percent. Nothing there suggests that he’s anything other than the batting average producer that he has appeared to be for the majority of his career.
Cruz doesn’t have Josh Hamilton to ride shotgun to this season, and that’s a concern. However, some people may take that thought too far leaving Cruz as a potentially solid add on draft day. The Rangers still have strong hitters in Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre, and guys like Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman can all hit too. It may not be the prettiest group the Rangers have ever put together, but the offense should still be plentiful in Texas. Don’t reach on Cruz, you won’t have to given his ADP, but if you need some power in the outfield and the pickings are starting to get a wee bit thin, don’t forget that if Cruz can repeat last seasons games played total that a run at 30 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t at all out of the question.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.
Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?
Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.
Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.
Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.
Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).
Some further disturbing trends.
Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.
From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.
In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.
Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).
His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.
If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Last season only two outfielders in major league baseball had more RBIs than Josh Willingham while only four outfielders hit more homers than Willingham. In retrospect it was a bad decision to view Willingham as nothing more a mid round draft pick in fantasy baseball on draft day in 2012 (many expected the move to Minnesota to erode his value somewhat). Should that view be changed, that Willingham is nothing more than a solid option for 2013, or should he be an early round draft pick because of the power that led to 35 homers and 110 RBIs last season?
By the way, Josh Hamilton (128) and Ryan Braun (112) had more RBIs. Hamilton (43), Curtis Granderson (43), Braun (41) and Ginacarlo Stanton (37) had more homers. As I also pointed out the other day in Things You Should Know, his production last season leaves a very favorable impression when his numbers are compared to those of Giancarlo Stanton.
Here is what I know.
Willingham set a career-high in homers in ’12. He had never hit 30 homers in a season before with his previous best being 29 in 2011.
Second, Willingham set a career-high with 110 RBIs. He had never reached 100 RBIs before (98 in 2011).
Third, Willingham set a career-high with 85 runs scored. His previous best was 75 back in 2007.
Part of the reason for all those counting category high’s is that he set a career best with 145 games played in his seventh season (his 615 plate appearances were also a career best). It should be noted though that this fella has failed to reach 525 at-bats in any season as a big league player (just pointing that out). Willingham has long been an injury risk and just cause he was out there a lot in 2013 shouldn’t cause you to forget that since he became a full-time player he has averaged 131 games a season meaning that over the past seven years he’s averaged a full month of missed games. That’s something you need to keep in mind when evaluating Willingham.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
As for the power, the guy does have 64 bombs the past two years, so it’s pretty hard to write his pop off as something anomalous. It’s also pretty impressive that he hit 29 homers in 2011 in Oakland and 35 in Minnesota in 2012 despite Park Factors in the home run column of 26th and 14th. Neither park is a homer haven by any means. The fact is that Josh has posted HR/F marks of 17.5 and 21.2 percent the past two years, both big numbers (career 15.5). I won’t say it’s a pace he can’t sustain though as he has proven that he can have that level of success. He also hits a lot of fly balls, over 48 percent in two of the last three seasons, so his homer total pretty much rests upon how many games played he can drag his body out onto the field.
IF Willingham can remain healthy, he still has three major issues in the fantasy game.
(1) He isn’t a very good all-around hitter. A career .261 hitter, Josh has hit better than .268 only once in seven years (.277 in 2006). He’s consistently league average. That’s all he is.
(2) He never steals a base. For his career he’s swiped 32 bases, and in four of the past five years he’s been limited to four or fewer thefts.
(3) He plays in the outfield, a position that has a lot of strong hitters, so his offensive exploits aren’t over the top good, especially with no base stealing speed and an inability to do anything other than match the league average in batting average. He’s just not an exciting player, especially when you toss into the mix his injury filled history.
I’m not saying Willingham is useless, he’s far from that. You can’t be useless if you are 11th in baseball with 64 homers the past two years and 8th in RBIs (208) – eighth (who knew?). But consider that he is tied for 55th in runs (154), is 92nd in batting average (.253) and 133rd in steals (15 tied with seven others). Toss in the fact that’s he’s failed to play 140 games in four of the past five years and that he plays outfield, and there just isn’t the pull for his services that you might think there should be. Willingham is a solid add for a club, but don’t go reaching or you will end up being disappointed (there is a chance others will view him the same way and he will fall on draft day in which case he would become a solid target – it’s all about the cost with this slugger).
By Ray Flowers
Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).
Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE
For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.
For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.
2012 OUTFIELDERS Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Matt Kemp
3 Carlos Gonzalez
4 Justin Upton
5 Jacoby Ellsbury
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Matt Holliday
8 Michael Bourn
9 Curtis Granderson
10 Hunter Pence
11 B.J. Upton
12 Ginacarlo Stanton
13 Shane Victorino
14 Nelson Cruz
15 Josh Hamilton
16 Adam Jones
17 Jay Bruce
18 Shin-Soo Choo
19 Brett Gardner
20 Jayson Werth
Braun was my #1 player heading into the year. He may have been edged out by Mike Trout for the honor of the best player in fantasy baseball, but Braun was simply amazing and just as good as he was in his MVP effort of ’11.
2011: .332-33-111-109-33
2012: .319-41-112-18-30
Kemp hit .303 with 23 bombs, 69 RBIs, 74 runs scored and nine thefts in a tremendous letdown season. Still, his pace for 160 games would have led to an effort of .303-35-104-112-14. If he did that, would you have complained?
CarGo produced a third straight 20/20 effort though he also had three year lows in homers (22), RBI (85), runs (.89) and OPS (.881). All things considered though, he was still an elite fantasy performer.
J. Upton was terrible. Just ask one of his owners. Justin had only 17 homers and 67 RBIs a year after 31 and 88. But was he really as bad as you thought? Not even close despite the popular perception. Upton hit .280, two points better than his career mark, stole 18 bases (he averaged 20 the previous three years), and scored a career best 107 runs, the second highest total in the NL. So much for a terrible season.
Ellsbury appeared in 74 games, the second time in three years that he didn’t make it out onto the field for half the Red Sox games. The talent is undeniable, but his inability to stay healthy is a huge concern, as is the fact that he hit just four homers in 303 at-bats. Remember, he had 32 of his career total of 56 homers in just 660 at-bats in 2011 meaning he has 24 homers in his other 1,675 ABs.
McCutchen dominated as every talent evaluator in the game thought he could. Andrew went 30/20 and just missed out on also going 100-100 as he had 96 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Toss in a .327 batting and you have a top-5 fantasy campaign.
Holliday was supposed to struggle without Albert Pujols, remember? Uh, no. Holliday hit .295 with 27 homers, 102 RBIs and 95 runs scored for the Cards.
Bourn was pathetic at the dish hitting a mere .225 over his final 70 games, but in summation his season was an unqualified success as he hit .274 (career .272) with a career best nine homers and 57 RBIs. Toss in 96 runs (one off his career best) and 42 steals, and he had another elite fantasy season.
Granderson, somewhat surprisingly, hit 43 homers with 106 RBIs and 102 runs scored giving him 2-straight years of 40-100-100. However, he also failed to hit .250 for the third time in four years, and his maddening stolen base trend continued. Here are his steals totals since 2007: 26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and 10.
Pence hit a career worst .253 with a career-low five steals. The good? He hit 24 homers with 104 RBIs, the second number being a career best. A solid though somewhat disappointing effort.
B.J. Upton started the ball rolling late because of injury, but by the end of the season he was a mere two bombs short of his first 30/30 effort. Upton only hit .246, but this was the 5th straight 30 steal effort and a second straight 20/30 performance. He also recorded 79 runs for the 6th straight year.
Stanton flashed his unsurpassed power with 37 homers and 86 RBIs in just 123 games played. What was really surprising to see was the .290 batting average, a number that he will find it hard to replicate given his approach at the plate (143 Ks just 46 walks in those 123 games).
Victorino struggled for large portions of the year and his .255 batting average was a major disappointment as were his 5-year low in RBIs (55) and his 6-year low in runs (72). At least he stole 39 bags, a career best.
Cruz appeared in 159 games, a shocking total for a player who had never taken the field 130 times. Amazingly, his per at-bat numbers were four years worsts as he hit 24 homers with 90 RBIs on the year. Those are solid numbers, but more was expected from him if he was healthy able to play 150+ games. He also isn’t running anymore with eight steals in 2012 and 17 the past two years (he stole 37 bases in 2009-10).
Hamilton had a monstrous season batting .285 with 43 dingers, 128 RBIs and 103 runs scored. For the most part he kept himself out of trouble, and he even managed to play 148 games, a four year high. An effort like this was always possible, but he was as low as he was in my rankings because of the constant off the field concerns and his inability to stay healthy making him a sizable risk. For one year those concerns disappeared.
Jones hit 16 homers in the first 51 games before slowing down the rest of the way to end the year with 32 big flies, a career best. He also stole 16 bases and scored 103 times, more career bests, as was his .287 average (by three points). Add in 82 RBIs and you’ve got yourself one hell of a campaign.
Bruce was very good, but far from the breakout star many predicted. Still, his yearly improvement is impressive and historic.
2008: 21 homers, 52 RBIs
2009: 22 homers, 58 RBIs
2010: 25 homers, 70 RBIs
2011: 32 homers, 97 RBIs
2012: 34 homers, 99 RBIs
Choo didn’t make it all the way back to his 2009-10 heyday, but he was damn impressive (.283-16-67-88-21). His season really took off when he was inserted into the leadoff spot (.310/.389/.493 in 99 games).
Gardner’s elbow literally had him on the edge of a return like six times. In the end he hit .323 with two steals in 16 games after swiping 96 bases with 185 runs scored in 2010-11. A massive letdown.
Werth hit .300 with a .387 OBP, tremendous numbers, but he only appeared in 81 games with five homers, eight steals and 31 RBIs. Just not what his owners, or the Nationals, were hoping for.
Hit: Alex Rios (#23), Dexter Fowler (#33)
I highlighted Rios as the best option outside the top-20 at the position, and for that I drew derision from many fantasy circles. I had the last laugh though as he hit .304 with 25 homers, 91 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 23 steals. Efforts like his win fantasy championships. Fowler was another player that people shied away from, and while his effort wasn’t as good as that of Rios it was still plenty helpful (.300-13-53-72-12 in just 454 at-bats).
Miss: Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence
Misses due to injury: Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Carl Crawford (#21)
By Ray Flowers
It’s a sad day for many in the world of baseball as this is the final day of the regular season. Hopefully your team is in the playoff mix, and your fantasy team still has something to play for on this final day of the 2012 regular season.
Miguel Cabrera is on the cusp of the Triple Crown which would be the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Cabrera has a seven point lead over Mike Trout in the batting race (.331 to .324), a one homer lead over Josh Hamilton (44 to 43), and an 11 RBI lead over Hamilton (139 to 128). Cabrera also leads the AL in SLG (.608) and OPS (1.002) and as great as Trout has been, that’s going to be hard for him to overcome when ballots are cast for the AL MVP Award.
Clayton Kershaw (hip) will make his final start today even though the Dodgers have been eliminated from the playoffs (the Dodgers went 32-31 after they picked up Hanley Ramirez, 29-27 after they added Shane Victorino, and 17-18 after they brought to town Adrian Gonzalez). Why? He’s chasing the Cy Young Award. Currently first in the NL in ERA (2.58) and WHIP (1.03) he needs 10 Ks to pass R.A. Dickey (230) for the NL lead in strikeouts as he chases his 14th victory. Even if he gets there I would bet that either Dickey or Gio Gonzalez wins the award given how the voters have traditionally cast their ballots.
Buster Posey pushed his average up to .337, .010 points clear of Andrew McCutchen for the NL Lead. Posey will obviously ended the year as the leader in the NL and it seems quite likely that he will also lead baseball in batting average. Of course, that’s not really accurate as Melky Cabrera hit .346 this season but MLB took the easy way out and removed him from consideration for the award to save face by changing the rule book mid season to remove from consideration players that were suspended for PED use.
I still can’t believe it, but Jimmy Rollins went 20/20 this season from June 1st on.
Carlos Ruiz had one hell of a season that was marred by injury. Each of the past two years he had hit better than .280, and he always walked as many times as he struck out, but that doesn’t come close to explaining his .326 batting average, especially since he posted a career worst 0.58 BB/K ratio (it was 1.00 or better the previous four seasons). At the same time, I can’t decide if the batting average or the power output was the bigger surprise. Having never hit more than nine homers in a season, and totaling 14 the past two years, Ruiz somehow went out and hit 16 bombs this year. The fact that he more than doubled his HR/F ratio this season was the reason, especially since he had a four year low in his fly ball rate. Don’t overdraft him next season – he’s not hitting .326 or going deep 16 times again.
Just for the hell of it. Who says beautiful women and baseball don’t go together?
Think you had a rough Tuesday? James Shields tossed a nine inning complete game… and lost. If that wasn’t bad enough, he authored one of the greatest complete game loses in baseball history. Shields allowed just one run in the game, two hits, and didn’t walk a batter. He also struck out a Rays’ all-time record 15 batters in the outing (no one has noticed, but Shields will end the year with 223 Ks which right now is tied with King Felix for fourth in baseball). That outing by Shields enabled him to become the first pitcher of the modern era, since 1900, to strikeout 15 batters without walking one with 15 or more strikeouts and just one run allowed.
What’s more surprising – Chase Headley knocking in 113 runs, Alfonso Soriano platting 108 or Justin Upton sitting at 67 RBIs?
By Ray Flowers
Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
Who would you rather have for 2nd half of season… Josh Hamilton or Mark Trumbo? Hamilton is slumping badly.
– @mysports1
I got this question and thought it was a joke. It wasn’t. There followed a couple of tweets that pointed out that since June 1st that Trumbo had outproduced Hamilton. OK, well, let’s play that parsing game and see what we come up with.
April-May
Hamilton: .368-21-57-39 with a 1.184 OPS
Trumbo: .348-10-26-22 with a 1.029 OPS
June-Current
Hamilton: .207-7-21-17 with a .725 OPS
Trumbo: .269-16-39-25 with a .954 OPS
Hamilton dominated the first two months. Trumbo has dominated the last month an a half. But…
Overall
Hamilton: .300-28-78-56-6 with a .988 OPS
Trumbo: .309-26-65-47-4 with a .991 OPS
Overall Hamilton is still the better performer, though it is obviously a lot closer than most of us would have thought before looking at the numbers. Still, there is no comparison between the two when it comes to talent. Hamilton is a vastly superior talent. He’s dynamic. I’ll give Trumbo full credit for what he has done, it has surpassed everyone’s expectations, and he does qualify at first base and the outfield in all leagues adding to his versatility (maybe even at third in some leagues). Still, I honestly don’t know a single “expert” who would say they prefer Trumbo in this matchup. Not a one. If you don’t buy the talent argument then how about this one – Hamilton has shown himself to be this hitter for a while now. Trumbo? It’s pretty hard to think he can maintain a 26.3 HR/F ratio – a massive total that would have been the best in baseball last year, in 2010, in 2009… you get the point. It’s also pretty hard to take Trumbo at face value. The guy was a .275 hitter in six minor league seasons. He hit .254 last year. That .309 average isn’t supported by his history or by his 15 percent line drive rate this season.
Trumbo’s been great, and he’s performing better the past six weeks, but the odds are still heavily tilted toward Hamilton being the better performer the rest of the season.
Drop Chris Davis for Wil Myers in a keeper? I can only keep five guys, but in the round drafted, aka 24th for Myers, I’d consider it.
– @JeffSchaffer13
Davis has had a productive season for the Orioles hitting .260 with 14 homers and 41 RBIs in 77 games, putting him pace to be a .260-28-80 type of hitter. Davis has the skills to do that. However that doesn’t make him a keeper in any league that protects only five players. His production also isn’t to the level that he’s keeping your team afloat this year either (at least I hope not). Bottom line is that you could move on from him with an eye to the future if it made sense (i.e. your team could handle the loss right now).
Myers has a luminous future, a fact I pointed out last November in AFL – 2011 Review when I was able to interview Myers at the AFL Rising Stars Game. Myers has killed it all year long, at Double an Triple-A, hitting .319 with 28 homers, 76 RBIs an a 1.057 OPS in a mere 90 games. The only thing holding him back from roaming the Royals outfield right now is that they don’t have a spot for him with Lorenzo Cain being healthy (he’s joined by Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur). Perhaps the Royals will move Frenchie at the trade deadline to open up a spot for Myers. At least that would be a logical move. Regardless of what happens at the deadline, it would be a shock if Myers wasn’t in the starting lineup on Opening Day 2013. Does that make Myers a keeper in a five keeper league given his 24th round value?
A brief history lesson. Here are some of the names of some recent elite level prospects that were looked at as can’t miss options who missed in their first season.
Brandon Wood
Cameron Maybin
Travis Snider
Justin Smoak
Pedro Alvarez
Domonic Brown
Brandon Belt
I could go on, but I think you get the point. We’ve all been spoiled by the success of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The game just isn’t that easy.
I’ve got no idea who you’re other keeper options are, but in a league that protects only five guys I’m not inclined to keep Myers for 2013, even at a 24th round value.
Need ERA/WHIP. Send Paul Konerko for C.J. Wilson? I can slide Michael Morse or Kevin Youkilis in at 1B.
– @chiloubrown
Konerko has had an excellent season with a .322/.402/.511 slash line (the average and OBP would be career bests). Still, his performance has been really rough lately. Over his last 35 games he’s gone deep just three times with 11 RBIs while his slash line has been pathetic at .244/.331/.336. What’s going on? First off I’d posit some normal regression as he was simply performing over his head early in the year. Second, he had that minor wrist procedure that knocked him out of action for a few days, and he’s been pretty awful since then. Is the wrist still bothering him? Third, let’s not forget that he’s 36 years old. I know we have been spoiled with a lot of players being good into their last 30′s, but traditionally 36 year olds slow down. I’m not saying Konerko should be viewed as a drag on any fantasy team moving forward but I’m also not exactly in love with what I’m seeing either.
Wilson had his worst effort of the year Wednesday allowing seven runs in six innings, but even so he still owns a 2.82 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP on the year. Moreover, that’s 54 starts with a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP since the start of last season. Wilson continues to be one of the most effective hurlers in baseball, and there is no reason to think that he’s likely to see a major regression any time soon.
If your goal is to improve your ratios Wilson is a fine target. Since you’ve got Morse/Youkilis to also fill in at first base, go ahead and send Konerko packing.
Think Santiago Casilla is permanently out as closer or needs a breather? Seems SF will give Casilla every opportunity as they want Sergio Romo left as setup guy.
– @cwhittemore33
All I can say about this situation is that I’ve been extremely frustrated all year. As I have said, consistently since January, Romo is the best reliever the Giants have. Period. Nothing, not a single thing, that he has done this year has changed my opinion at all. In fact, Romo is one of the five best relievers in baseball. Period. Think I’m crazy? Look at the numbers.
0.66 ERA
0.73 WHIP
11.20 K/9
4.25 K/BB
.128 BAA
You hear this crap all the time about how he can’t handle lefties. What are those people talking about?
In 2012 lefties have hit .143 with a .374 OPS against Romo.
For his career lefties have hit .189 against Romo with a .483 OPS.
It’s a completely fallacious argument.
The only valid argument for keeping Romo out of the 9th is that the club doesn’t think he can work a full inning every other day because of an often tender elbow.
Given the totality of the data, Romo should have been closing the moment that Brian Wilson went down with injury. Period. Instead the Giants went with an inferior pitcher in Casilla. For the majority of the first half Casilla was admittedly impressive, he converted 19 of his first 20 save chances, but he’s turned into a disaster of epic proportions of late blowing five of eight save chances as his ERA has gone up two full runs over his last 10 outings. Hopefully the Giants will finally do the right thing and use Romo in the 9th inning, but even if they move on from Casilla, as they should, don’t be surprised is Jeremy Affeldt sees some 9th inning work.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
(1) R.A. Dickey – is he the best pitcher in baseball?
(2) Mike Trout – is he the best player in fantasy baseball?
(3) Royals OF situation is muddled. When will we see Wil Myers?
(4) Josh Hamilton should return to starting lineup Tuesday.
(5) Jason Marquis, strikeout artist for Padres?
(6) Aaron Hill on fire of late. A top-10 2B?
(7) Astros coaching staff destroys Brett Myers with moronic usage.
(8) Mark Prior — he’s baaaack? Close to return for Red Sox?
By Ray Flowers
A slugger made history. A pitcher who also made history has hit hard times. A pitcher is getting no love despite personal success. A former elite option is returning to action. Two middling hurlers have been mighty impressive. And oh, Kate Beckinsale…
Josh Hamilton had one of the greatest nights in baseball history Tuesday as he went deep four times with eight RBI as he became just the 16th player every to hit four dingers in a game. He also hit a double to propel him to 18 total bases, the most in a game in the history of the American League (Shawn Green had 19 total bases in his four homer game for the Dodgers in 2002). So what do I say to all of that? Trade Hamilton now at his zenith. Remember, the guy has averaged 114 games played the past three years.
Reason 1,963 why wins mean nothing… Ryan Dempster has a 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 an a 3.60 K/BB ratio through five starts and he is 0-1 for the Cubs.
Phil Humber tossed a perfect game on April 21st, the 21st in the history of the game. However, he’s been an unmitigated disaster in three outings since. Humber has tossed 13.1 innings an allowed 20 hits. As bad as that sounds, it’s nowhere near the worst of it. In those 13.1 innings he’s also walked 11 batters, allowed five home runs and permitted, and his is no misprint, 20 earned runs to cross the plate. Add that all up and Humber, in his last three starts, has an ERA of 13.50 an a WHIP of 2.40. Now you see why I had him ranked outside my top-100 amongst starting pitchers this season and why all that talk about him taking the next step this season were baseless.
I know the movie was terrible, but if anyone can watch Underworld Awakening – which was released on DVD this week – and see Kate Beckinsale and not want to immediately buy some leather pants, then I don’t know what your problem is. Where is my Kate Beckinsale? What a looker.
Andy Pettitte will start for the Yankees on Sunday. With a name that will almost certainly far outpace his production, Pettitte is nothing more than an innings eater for a mixed league staff, an a moderate one at that. The 39 year old tossed four games as he worked his way back into shape and he allowed seven earned runs (3.71 ERA) and 22 base runners (1.29 WHIP) against the whipper snappers in the minors, not exactly impressive totals.
Joe Saunders got lit up Monday allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first non-quality start of the year in his sixth start. It’s all about the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you prefer. Saunders is the owner of a career 4.10 ERA an only twice in four seasons as a full-time starter has his ERA been under 4.40. Clearly he wasn’t going to post a sub 2.00 ERA this season. In fact, even with his outing Monday his ERA is still nearly a full run better than it has ever been at 2.50 (he had a 3.41 mark in 2008). Given Saunders skill set everything, an I mean everything, will have to go right for him this season to post an ERA under 3.40. What that means is that he still has a long way go to regress back to the pitcher he actually is. Be sure you’re aware of that if you have him rostered as anything other than a rotation filler in mixed leagues.
Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher I targeted as a pick up this week because of his two start status. Consider game one a rousing success as Big Z tossed a nine inning shutout at the Astros permitting only three hits and one walk while striking out nine. I know it was the Astros which is akin to mowing down a Triple-A roster, but it’s time we give Carlos some props. His 1-2 record blows chunks but it certainly has nothing to do with how he has performed as he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. Moreover, Zambrano has made six starts, all of which have been “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched while permitting three or fewer runs). A hell of a start for the combustible one.
Here are some pitchers that are bound to have brighter days ahead given their massive BABIP mark (it’s very rare to see a hurler end a year with a mark as high as .330).
.439 – Josh Johnson
.407 – Mar Scherzer
.381 – Ivan Nova
.369 – Zack Greinke
.363 – Juan Nicasio
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
