In Blank We Trust?

Should you trust Paul Goldschmidt to produce well enough to be a mixed league starter? Should you trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy? Should you have faith that Jayson Werth will rebound from a down 2011?

D’Backs GM Kevin Towers had this to say about Paul Goldschmidt the young, slugging first baseman who is generating a lot of hype in the fantasy game. “I would be happy if he did what he did last year and nothing more than that. If the power comes, great, but finding a way to get on base, if it is a walk or a base hit, I will take that from him.” Goldschmidt killed it last season blasting 30 homers in just 103 games at Double-A (this a year after he hit 35 homers in 138 games at High-A ball). Obviously, Goldschmidt is a power hitter, so it’s a bit foolish for Towers to have made the statement he did even though I understand he is doing it to keep the expectations in check for the youngster. Paul hit eight homers with 26 RBI in 48 games last season with the Diamondbacks. If he were to keep up that pace in 2012 we’d be looking at a first baseman hitting .250 with 25 homers and 80 RBI. Current ADP numbers show Goldschmidt going off the board 12th at the position, ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez (17th) and Carlos Pena (18th). Given that all three of those players have produced a bunch of seasons of the ilk that we’re postulating with Goldschmidt as a hypothetical outcome for his 2012 effort, are you as surprised as I am to see him being taking 75 picks ahead of a guy like Carlos Pena?

Kelly Clarkson has a great voice. Always love hearing her belt one out.

Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen said that the Fish will monitor the workload of oft injured hurler Josh Johnson. “He will dictate for us what to do,” Guillen said. “What I want him to do is have confidence in us to make sure we know. So he can come to us and say, ‘Listen, I need a day.’ Can I miss a start? I don’t want him to go out there and be a hero…” Guillen then went on to totally contradict himself, hardly a shock, by saying the following. “In my mind, I have this man throwing 200 innings and winning 21 games. That’s in my mind.” Johnson is likely to, at least, be removed early from games in which the Marlins have a lead or are behind, so I have a hard time envisioning that he will make it to 200-innings this season. You don’t have to believe me – just look at his track record. Johnson has pitched 200 innings once in his career and since 2006, his first season as a starter, he has averaged 119 innings a season. To compare, since 2006 Erik Bedard has averaged 112 innings a season. Read that again. The last six years the always injured Bedard is averaging seven less innings a season than Johnson. Are you really still comfortable with depending on Josh Johnson this season?

I was having a debate with a friend the other day. I’m a big fan of plasma televisions since I think they gives a better, more natural color than LCD televisions. Plasma’s also handle motion a bit better and they are better with dark colors (i.e. black levels), so it’s a slam dunk that plasma is better LCD in my mind. That will end your brief foray into geek talk. Wait… maybe all my talk is actually geek talk? Is fantasy baseball really any less geeky? Could it be possible that I’m that guy, the one who can’t relate to people because he is playing with his Han Solo and Chewbacca action figures? Nah, can’t be me.

How bad was Jayson Werth last year? In a season of at least 300 at-bats he posted his worst batting average (.232), OBP (.330) and his second worst SLG mark (.389 – it was .374 back in 2005). As a result Werth, who had posted an OPS of at least .850 for 4-straight years, saw that number dip to .718 last season. Awful. At the same time he still hit 20 homers and and stole 19 bases. Do you know how many outfielders matched those totals last year? The answer is just 11. Moreover, the last four seasons Werth has produced an average of 27 homers and 18 steals. He’s on my list of guys you’ll want to target in 2012.

If you’re looking to play fantasy baseball, sign up with Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Last Friday I released my ROTW Rankings for Hitters to equal parts adulation and scorn. Today, I’ll further infuriate the masses by releasing my ROTW Rankings for Pitchers.

Before moving on to the rankings it should be noted that pitchers are only listed at one spot (Tim Stauffer might qualify as a reliever and starter in your league, but in the BaseballGuys.com rankings he only appears as a starter).

These rankings are my expectations for pitchers from this point forward. If Josh Johnson is healthy and at 100% percent he’d be in my top-10. However, he’s not even close to that at this point which is why he doesn’t appear anywhere close to that high on the list.

Relievers are so tough to predict because of roles. I’ve tried to blend my expectations based upon what role a pitcher will hold (i.e. Mike Adams will close if he stays with the Padres and Heath Bell is dealt). In most cases it’s still best to target the skills and not the role, but you have to objectively consider whether or not at this point of the season whether or not the role is more valuable.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Around the Horn: June30, 2011

(1) Mark Ellis now a Rockie. How does that effect NL-only leagues?

(2) Ty Wigginton on fire for the Rockies.

(3) Josh Johnson shoulder update.

(4) Derek Jeter hopes to return Monday from calf injury.

(5) Erik Bedard to DL, Rich Harden off it.

(6) Chris Davis to get shot with Rangers?

PS – Congratulations to Crissy who won the DraftStreet.com competition last night.

By Ray Flowers

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

photo © 2009 Nicole Hernandez | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve tried to explain how in the world that Jose Bautista is doing what he’s doing, an I’ve pretty much come up craps. In Take a Swing, Jeff Passan takes his hacks.

I don’t remember the last time I did this, but I’m going to quote myself (how narcisitic is that?). Here’s a Twitter post of mine from earlier today. “Did you listen to me about Trevor Cahill? Last five starts: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 0.71 K/BB.” Well did you listen and downgrade him when I told you to or did you blindly push forward irrespecitve of my advice?

Carlos Carrasco has five wins in his last six outings and over his last two efforts, spanning 15.1 innings, he’s held the Twins and the Yankees off the scoreboard. All of a sudden everyone is interested in the Indians’ hurler. Carrasco, a former Phillies’ minor league standout, has done a good job limiting the walks at less than three per nine innings. However, his K-rate is barely over 5.50, and that portends trouble unless you are able to generate a lot of ground balls. Fortunately Carlos does a good job of inducing grounders with a 51.4 percent career GB mark. What I see here is a solid AL-only arm, but one that would be a stretch  in a 15 team mixed league. When he’s got the ground balls flowing he can pitch very well, but the lack of strikeouts means he isn’t going to be someone who makes a true impact in the fantasy game.

I’m still fielding questions about Josh Collmenter. Please tell me you aren’t one of the people asking if you’re in a mixed league. Collmenter has gotten by to this point with a boatload of luck, batters are having a hard time picking up his release point, but the truth of the matter is that Josh simply isn’t a very good pitcher. I know he has a 1.86 ERA an a 0.86 WHIP through 14 games which makes me look stupid, but scouts will tell you that he doesn’t own a single pitch that grades out as better than big league average. He doesn’t strike anyone out (5.74 per nine), doesn’t get any grounders (40 percent of batted balls), and has been one lucky devil with a .205 BABIP. He might end up with passable numbers by the time the season is over, but even if that’s the case there is a ton of regression coming down the pipe.

Alcides Escobar has hit .500 during his seven game hitting streak. He’s still hitting just .235 on the year, but he might be a person of interest in deep mixed leagues who use a middle infielder because in addition to all the hits of late he’s also started to run again with four steals in nine games. The key to that is simple – he’s finally getting on base. The owner of just 10 walks this season, Escobar owns a pathetic .267 OBP. You can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on base.

Everyone in the world seems to think that Jason Heyward is a wussy, and that he has lost all his talent and value. I don’t get that at all. Oh he might be a wussy or diva-like in not wanting to play when he isn’t 100 percent physically, but the skills are still elite (as an aside, he’s traveling to Atlanta to have his shoulder looked at and he could be back in action for the Braves very quickly). His is an example of people simply panicking because they aren’t seeing it on the field. I’m telling you, the young man still owns Hall of Fame talent, still lashes liners harder than just about any person on the planet, and should still be a building block if you’re in a keeper league. I’d bet that in two years you’ll have forgotten all about his dismal first half in 2011.

Josh Johnson was transferred to the 60 day DL. That means the Marlins’ ace will be out of action until at least July 16th. Johnson has yet to throw off the mound since hitting the DL with his shoulder woes, but the team remains confident that he will be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. When injured he left behind some of the best numbers in the game (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 56 Ks in 60.1 IP), but the guy is probably the riskiest top-10 hurler in the game.

Joakim Soria has saves in three straight outings since he returned to the closers role for the Royals. He also picked up a win in his outing previous to the saves run, and he is unscored upon in his last six outings. All is right in the world yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 5, 2011

(1) Tim Lincecum makes strikeout history as his fastball speed returns thanks to his offseason training (for more see Link O’ Rama).

(2) Josh Johnson the best early season pitcher in the game.

(3) Aaron Crow showing Royals his worth as a pen ace.

(4) Carl Crawford finally hitting, making history.

(5) Adrian Gonzalez productive, minus the power.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers

Biding My Time

I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?

I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).

PLAYER RATINGS

Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.

Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.

According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.

The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?

You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:

1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton

PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN

I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.

“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”

PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.

JUST BECAUSE…

One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the NL Cy Young?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

NL Cy Young

Tim Hudson: The Braves’ ace was 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA on August 28th and he was steamrolling his way through batters on the way to the best season of his career. You can still make the argument that this was his finest season, but his last seven starts will leave a bitter taste in his, and the voters, mouths (2-4 with a 5.32 ERA an a 1.39 WHIP). Hudson finished the year with a career best 2.83 ERA that was 6th in the NL, and his 1.15 WHIP was his best mark since 2003 when he had a career best 1.08 mark. Hudson also struck out 139 batters, a 4-year high, though it was a total that was one less than Cubs’ closer Carlos Marmol (138).

Ubaldo Jimenez: At the break he looked like a shoo-in for the award with his 15-1 record and 2.20 ERA. In the second half though he reverted from the all-world ace he was early in the year to being the solid pitcher he has been for a couple of seasons as he had a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 101 Ks in 94.2 innings. However, he was able to win only four games against seven loses, and I bet that “failure” to win games will doom him in the eyes of most voters even though it really shouldn’t. Ubaldo was still third in the league with 19 victories and 214 Ks, while his 2.88 ERA was 8th and his 1.15 WHIP tied for 8th. He also permitted a mere .209 BAA, the second best mark in the league to Jonathan Sanchez (.204).

Josh Johnson: Some might have forgotten this fact, but Josh Johnson led the NL in ERA with a 2.30 mark. As late as August 12th his ERA was 1.97, though the final five starts of his season saw that number rise to it’s resting point. Johnson’s season ended prematurely because of a back/shoulder issue, an as a result he threw just 183.2 innings. You had better be pretty damn special if you think you deserve the Cy Young Award with less than 185 innings pitched, and that task becomes impossible when you put up only 11 victories as Johnson did. Still, the guy led the league in ERA, had more than a K per inning (186) and finished the campaign with a WHIP of 1.11, 7th in the NL.

Mat Latos: The Padres youngster would have had a shot at finishing much higher in the final vote if he hadn’t hit the skids in the month of September when over five starts his ERA went from 2.21 to 2.92. Still, for a pitcher in his first complete big league season, Latos was tremendous. He was 10th in ERA, and 11th in strikeouts (189), while he was sixth in WHIP (1.08) and 5th in BAA. He also had the most consistently excellent 15 game run a pitcher ever had which you can read about in my By The Numbers piece.

As great as those four were, this is a two-horse race between Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. It’s amazing how close the two were this season.

R.Halladay: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP

That’s pretty amazing, the closeness of the numbers, is it not? Here are some more.

R.Halladay: 7.86 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 7.30 K/BB, 0.86 HR/9, 1.72 GB/FB
Wainwright: 8.32 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 3.80 K/BB, 0.59 HR/9, 1.68 GB/FB

Halladay is inching ahead herem but its still insanely close. I bet the caper will be the final three numbers listed next.

R.Halladay: 250.2 IP, nine complete games, four shutouts
Wainwright: 230.1 IP, five complete games, two shutouts

As great as Wainwright was, Halladay was just a little bit better, so no one should complain when he takes home the hardware.

6- Tim Hudson
5- Josh Johnson
4- Mat Latos
3- Ubaldo Jimenez
2- Adam Wainwright
1- Roy Halladay

By Ray Flowers