The Oracle Joins the Fantasy Beat

The man, myth and legend Ray Flowers joins Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray on “The Fantasy Beat” to give his take on the young 2013 fantasy baseball season. The guys talked about hitters and pitchers who have garnered a lot of attention over the last few weeks.

Brandon Crawford, Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer, Paul Maholm, Ross Detwiler, Bartolo Colon, John Buck, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Ruggiano

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Draft Day Challenge, April 25

Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.

*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.

MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).

What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).

Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.

For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).

When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.

So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.

THURSDAY MATCHUPS

For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.

CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo

JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.

Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs

Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.

Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.

SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll

It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).

Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado

Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.

SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino

Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).

Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.

OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki

Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill

Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.

Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.

Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.

Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.3

It’s tax day. So after you fill out the forms, I know you didn’t get on it early since everyone loves to procrastinate so much, here is my report on the just completed week of free agency for the main fantasy baseball leagues I’m doing this season.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): With Derek Jeter taking forever to get back out on the field, I’ve been using Luis Cruz for two weeks. No more. In his stead I added Ruben Tejada for $1. He hit .300 the past week with two runs scored and two RBIs. Hey, it’s better than Cruz has done in two weeks (he is hitting .091 with one run and one RBI). I also placed Zack Greinke on the DL and added two start hurler Eric Stults for a buck. He starts at the Dodgers Monday and then at the Giants on the 21st. Those aren’t world beating moves by any stretch of the imagination, but maybe I’ll get a good week or two out of them.

Trade: I gave up Howie Kendrick and Jon Jay for Kenley Jansen, David Murphy and $5 FAAB in a deal with Cory Schwartz of MLB.com. I need pen arms. Jose Veras isn’t getting it done and now Joel Hanrahan is dealing with that leg issue of his so I wanted to be a bit preemptive here (losing Greinke puts a damper on my SP hopes, so I thought I would attack the ratios with RPs). I can slot Daniel Murphy at second and then Emilio Bonifacio at the middle infield spot to cover up the hole Kendrick left. Oh, and I need power as well. David Murphy isn’t a huge power bat, but he could easily hit 10 more homers than Jay who I gave up. Plus, this is an OBP league and Murphy was actually 6th in the AL last season with a career best .380 OBP (except for that .384 mark he posted in 105 at-bats in 2007).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): This league has some different rules. If you remove one of the 23 starters from your lineup that were taken on draft day, then you have to release them. The only way you can change your lineup is to release a starter or to have one placed on the disabled (you can then obviously replace them in your lineup). Therefore, there doesn’t tend to be a ton of free agent movement each week (as an example I really want to replace Joe Blanton in my lineup right now, but I can’t because that would mean I would have to send him to the waiver-wire). There were six pickups this week: Eric Sogard ($6), Justin Grimm ($5), Hank Congar ($3), Munenori Kawasaki ($2), Steve Delabar ($1) and Joe Ortiz ($1).

FSTA (13 team mixed): Sean Marshall went to the DL to join Shaun Marcum and Hanley Ramirez. To take the two open roster spots this week (Marcum and Marshall) I added Matt Adams ($36) and Felix Doubront ($13). The Sox hurler is a two start arm this week (@CLE) and (KC) and Adams is killing it right now (11-for-18 with three homers). Isn’t it a matter of time before Allen Craig and or Carlos Beltran get hurt? There’s a 30 homer bat with Adams, though he doesn’t have a spot in the daily lineup so it’s more of a hopeful move than anything.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): I bid on two relievers, but both went for more than my bids. I tossed $7 at Jim Henderson. He went for $27. I then tried to add Kelvin Herrera for $6. He went for $18. A few others of note: Juan Francisco ($7), Evan Gattis ($6) and Paul Maholm ($6). In retrospect, I should have bid on Joaquin Benoit ($3) and Trevor Rosenthal ($1). This is what happens when you are in too many leagues. You sometimes don’t spend enough time looking over the waiver-wire.

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. Over the past few days I made a couple of moves. I dropped Edinson Volquez when Aaron Crow got a save on the off chance Crow might get a look in the 9th. He won’t. I then dropped Crow to add Sergio Santos later in the week. I then, and stop me if you notice a musical chairs situation with relievers, dropped Vinnie Pestano to add Josh Rutledge when Jose Reyes went down with injury. When Reyes was officially placed on the DL, we have two DL spots in this league, I put Reyes on the DL and then added Michael Saunders. I then put Saunders on the DL and added Wellington Castillo since Carlos Santana is still dealing with injury. Noticing that the Cards might go with Edward Mujica in the 9th inning, I then dropped Castillo and added Mujica. Oh, and then for good measure I dropped Santos and added Tony Cingrani when the Reds announced that Johnny Cueto could miss some serious time with a lat injury. See how much of a mess things can be when you have a first come, first serve waiver-wire?

K-BAD (12 team mixed): As the owner of Cishek, Jansen, Parnell, Storen and Robertson, I’m clearly loading up on big time arms that may or may not get saves. Thought I might as well add another to the mix so for $42 of $1000 I rostered Andrew Bailey. I didn’t have to drop anyone as I put Hanley Ramirez on the DL as I did with Gordon Beckham. I replaced the White Sox second sacker with Chris Getz for $14. Howard Bender went nutso in one of the most aggressive weeks of FAAB spending I have ever seen. Howard adding five players… at a cost of $497. Wow is right – Jeremy Guthrie ($71), Vernon Wells ($76), Justin Maxwell ($86), Justin Masterson ($163) and Cody Ross ($101). Talk about going for it. Two others of note that didn’t go to Howard included Yonder Alonso who went for $154 and Barry Zito who went for $91.

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I admit it. I went for the gusto. Going against my usual common sense approach, I decided to add a big armed, totally unproven arm in Tony Cingrani for $9. I dropped the struggling Edinson Volquez to do it. I don’t know how long Cingrani will stick around but thought I might as well take a shot on what could potentially be one of the biggest arms we see come up from the minors this week. Evan Gattis ($8), James Russell ($5), Cody Ross ($4), Jake Westbrook ($3) and Eric Sogard ($3) were the only other adds that cost more than $2.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Zack Cozart

Some things confuse me. Take the following list of thoughts.

Why do we need an I.D. to buy a pack of cigarettes but I don’t need one to vote?

Why hasn’t a big league team asked me to work for them?

Why complain about $4 a gallon gas when you pay $4 for a 16 oz coffee?

Why don’t hot women love me? I mean, come one now, I’m The Oracle.

Why do people think that Zack Cozart is an impressive offensive player?

You’re probably only actually concerned with the last question.

Somehow people seem to think that Cozart is some sort of offensive dynamo, a notion which the data simply turns its nose up at. Strap in. Here we go.

During a five year run in the minors, 506 games worth of action, Cozart hit .270. Yippee. Cozart got on base at a .332 clip. Wowzahs. Cozart had a SLG of .421. Wow, I’m about to fall off my chair since that number is so impressive. Nothing, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, in that line should make anyone excited. The fact is the bat he flashed in the minors was the average man’s average. Yes he did bat .310 as a 25 year old at Triple-A over 77 games in 2011, but that was the first time he showed anything significant as a hitter.

How did Cozart perform last year with the Reds? Stop me if you’ve just read this, but he was average. In fact, a strong argument can be put forward that he wasn’t average – he was actually worse than that.

Cozart hit .246 in ’12 and owns a .251 career batting average. Last season baseball as a whole hit .255. He’s below “average” in the average category. He did post a league average line drive rate of 20 percent, and his BABIP was just a smidge below that league average at .282. He deserved that batting average, especially when you look over at the BB/K column and see a mark of 0.27, two tenths below the league average. Face it, he wasn’t, nor is he likely to be in 2013, a batting average booster.

Cozart hit 15 homers, and for a shortstop that is a solid total, one that was bettered by only seven shortstop eligible players (Ian Desmond led the way with 25). Still, I’m calling average here yet again. Cozart had a 38 percent fly ball rate and an 8.8 HR/F ratio. The big league averagesa are usually about 36 and nine. Cozart did hit 33 doubles, a solid total, but his SLG was still .399, a terrible number that was once again below the big league average of .405. Not much to see here again.

Cozart drove in 35 runs. Thirty-five. That’s one less than Yuniesky Betancourt who appeared in 57 games and two less than Josh Rutledge who took the field 73 times. To compare, Cozart appeared in 138 games, eight more than the total of the other two players combined. Cozart and Ben Revere were the only two players in baseball with 500 at-bats and 35 or fewer RBIs (Revere had 32 RBIs in 511 at-bats).

Cozart scored 72 times, a fairly impressive numbers for a guy with a pathetic .288 OBP (a number that a professional baseball player should be embarrassed to have on the back of his ball card. The major league average was .319 last season). The run total was 10th among shortstops qualifiers in the fantasy game. Blame the lack of RBIs on the fact that he appeared 102 times as a leadoff hitter and 27 times out of the #2 hole. Conversely, the reason he scored so many runs was merely because of his spot in the batting order. There are many reasons to be worried about Dusty Baker if you are a Reds fan, and this is one of the best examples. Your manager hit a guy with a .288 OBP first or second in your order 129 times. That’s unacceptable. It’s also embarrassing. How someone could rise to the level of manager and have no concept of how to put together a batting order is truly shocking. Best case Cozart should have been hitting 7th, but ideally he’d be the 8th place hitter with the effort he put up there last season. You can’t even defend the decision by saying Cozart’s speed causes problem for defenses. It doesn’t. He stole only four bags in 2012.

Nothing Cozart does stands out. Zack Cozart has only 149 games of big league experience, but he’s already 27 years old. He showed little with the bat in the minor leagues, and he continued to perform along those same lines last season. He was also exceedingly fortunate to have a manager with no understanding of how the game of baseball should be played. Barring Dusty Baker again being moronic and slotting Cozart at the top of the Reds’ order, there simply isn’t anything I can hang my hat on here as a reason that Cozart should be targeted on draft day 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August2, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Should I trade Matt Kemp for CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman?
– @cooperkyle22

Do you need offense or pitching? If the goal is to improve your pitching staff, I don’t see how you could pass on dealing Kemp. I know he’s hitting .350 since the All-Star break, but let’s keep things in perspective. Kemp has twice injured his leg this season and that’s obviously one of the main reasons he’s stopped running. You have realized that he has fewer steals this year than Mark Trumbo (four to three), right? Without the steals he’s no longer an elite fantasy performer, he’s merely a great one.

Sabathia is about as boring as it gets, and that’s a compliment. Everyone on the hill struggles an is injured, and though CC hit the DL for a bit this year, he’s been the same horse he’s been for a decade now racking up a 10-3 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 123 Ks in 126 innings. Chapman had a rough two weeks to end June, but the guy has rebounded to the point that it could be argued, persuasively,  that he is the best pitcher in baseball. Over his last 16 games he hasn’t allowed a run, not a one. His WHIP in that time is 0.61. His K/9 rate is 19.29 with 35 in 16.1 innings. My goodness, his K/BB ratio is 11.67 an about 99.5 percent of baseball would sell their in-laws to the devil for a K/9 rate that high, let alone a K/BB ratio like that. Still, the most amazing part might be that he has 15 saves in 17 appearances.

I’d trade Kemp to get that duo.

Drop Salvador Perez and pick up Carlos Santana? Is Carlos finding his stroke?
– @GoBigEd

Last week I got a bunch of questions about Santana including one I tackled in the Mailbag. To reiterate my point from there; Santana can hit. No one should have given up on him, and he still owns the skills to be an elite hitter at the position, something I’ve steadfastly said for the entirety of the season even when he’s been struggling. The struggles are gone as he’s hitting .293 with five homers and 12 RBIs in 19 games since the All-Star break. He’s also getting on base at a .461 clip with a 1.116 OPS. He’s a top-5 catcher the rest of the way for me which means you have to choose him over Perez who has been great hitting .320 with five homers in 29 games, but here’s the issue. People’s expectations are totally, and I mean off the charts, out of control with Perez. He’s not a .327 hitter despite his career mark. He’s certainly not the type of hitting that’s going to hit 30 homers. Wipe that stuff out of your mind – it’s just not happening. At the same time, people seem to be moving on from Perez due to his recent struggles (.244, no homers, one RBI in 12 games) like they are fleeing the scene of a murder they committed behind a convenient store. As I always tell people – be realistic with your expectations. This isn’t fantasy football. You don’t want to bail on a guy, or add a guy off waivers, simply because they are hot/cold for 45 at-bats.

Is Ben Revere for Jonathan Papelbon a fair trade?
– @joeblow84

The obvious answer is not really. But that doesn’t mean the deal is a 100 percent turn down job if you own Papelbon either. In fact, it might be a good move.

We’re at the point of the season where you have to play the categories. It doesn’t matter if you win the steals category by two or 22, you still get the same amount of points in the roto game. Therefore, sometimes “lopsided” deals make sense, and this could be an example of that. If it’s draft day 2013, I can’t think there would be many people who would take Revere over Papelbon. Sure the Twins outfielder is hitting an impressive .319, and he has swiped 25 bags, but he has zero homers, has knocked in only 20 runs and he’s only scored 37 runs (a total you would assume would be much higher given all those thefts). He’s a huge boost in the average and steals category but he’s downright pathetic in homers and RBIs. Still, what if he were to hit .300 and steals 15 bases the rest of the way? Would that help boost your club in both of those categories to the point that you could gain multiple points in each category in the standings? It’s certainly possible.

Papelbon has hit a bit of a bump in the road the past couple of weeks, but overall he’s still sporting 23 saves, a 1.12 WHIP, 54 Ks in 43 innings an a 5.40 K/BB ratio. There is nothing wrong with that pitching line. After six straight years of at least 30-saves there’s no reason, none, to think he won’t get their for a seventh straight year and with all the craziness in bullpens this year how could anyone not want this guy on their staff.

Check out the standings. If it makes sense for to add the average and steals, deal for Revere. If it makes sense for you to hold on to Papelbon so that you don’t fall too far in the saves category, then hold on the righty reliever from Philly.

Ryan Ludwick or Josh Rutledge for my UTIL spot?
– @lugnut106

Ludwick is hitting like it’s 2008 when he blasted 37 homers with 113 RBIs for the Cards. He’s never been able to recapture that form in the intervening years, but right now he’s killing it for the Reds with 19 homers and 56 RBIs in just 80 games played. Even better, he’s murdering pitches with eight homers, 23 RBIs an a .354 batting average over his last 23 contests. In fact, the last four weeks he leads the NL in RBIs an is just one off the NL lead in homers (Brian McCann and Ike Davis each have nine). You can’t expect him to keep up this pace of course, but overall not much really stands out in his batting line as his season long numbers are nearly identical to his career averages in AVG/OBP, BB/K, BABIP, GB/FB etc. He has elevated his HR/F rate at 22 percent, well above his 13 percent career mark, but the rest is pretty standard Ludwick stuff.

Rutledge has killed it since Troy Tulowitzki went down, and he figures to slide over to second base when Tulo is back in action (oddly, only eight percent of players over at Fleaflicker have added him to their rosters). Hitting .382 with four homers in 68 at-bats, the question isn’t whether Josh will slow, it’s how much will be slow. A guy with a 50 percent ground ball rate shouldn’t also have a 24 percent HR/F mark, especially when that same player only hit 22 homers in 211 minor league games. Give his approach at the plate, chiefly never talking a walk, his BB/K mark is awful at 0.20. There are but a few players in baseball who can approach that number and hit .300. Even fewer can sustain the .400 BABIP he’s currently rocking (truthfully, no one sustains that pace).

Both players will slow but I’d take Ludwick who has produced at these levels before and figures to be a better bet to keep the power stroke flowing. Since we are talking about a utility player I’m not concerned with the obvious advantage that Rutledge brings because of the position he plays.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.