Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

CONTEST

At BaseballGuys.com we have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday July 27th starting at 7pm EST which is FREE. That’s right it costs nothing, to enter. Here are the details:

- Create your team with a $1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. CLICK HERE to register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Remember, it’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs. Oh, I almost forgot to mention you can get a 40% deposit bonus up to $400,refer a friend and both get $20.

**Must have less than 1 MLB win on DailyJoust to compete in contest.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).

Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.

B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.

Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.

Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.

Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.

Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.

Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.

CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

John Buck vs. Cliff Lee: Buck has been awful this year but in his last six games he has three homers and seven RBI. He’s also got a matchup that he has had success in given that he has hit .317 with three homers an a 1.001 OPS over 41 at-bats against the one time ace lefty.

Ryan Roberts vs. Randy Wolf: Roberts isn’t exactly tearing it up, but with Josh Bell demoted he has a shot to reclaim a daily role with the club. He hit a homer in his last game and Friday he faces Wold who he has produced seven hits in 15 at-bats against (.467 with one homer). By the way, don’t start Wolf Friday. He’s allowed a .329/.391/.574 slash line to the current D’backs roster in 155 at-bats.

B.J. Upton vs. Justin Verlander: You know the term ‘playing with fire?’ Here we go with that. Upton has been in a terrible slump that has led to one hit in six games, and he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Still, the numbers suggest it’s not as bad as it seems as Upton has eight hits, including a homer, in 18 at-bats against Verlander leading to a .444 average and five RBIs (Hideki Matsui has also had some success hitting .333 in 24 at-bats).

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ross Detwiler vs. Braves: He hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career with a 3.80 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 23.2 innings, but his numbers this season against everyone look impressive (3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Plus, he’s been locked in for the month of June with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 16.1 innings.

Brian Duensing vs. Royals: This is one of those shot in the dark calls based totally on history and pretty much nothing else. Brian D. has made only one start this year so he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, and his last outing was unsuccessful (4 ER in 2 IP). Still, history says he makes for a nice play against the Royals: 6-2, 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings.

Mike Leake vs. Giants: Leake has killed it in June with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.50 K/BB ratio (though he’s only gone 1-0, great job Reds). The negative? He faces Matt Cain.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Wilson Betemit vs. Josh Tomlin: Three things make this move make sense. (1) Betemit is 7-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Tomlin. (2) Betemit has been hot in June hitting .383 with a 1.008 OPS in 60 at-bats. (3) Tomlin has been awful in June with a 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10 Ks in 26.2 innings.

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Just seeing this matchup should interest you, even if you had no idea about their history versus one another. Given that Mauer is hitting .450 with a .577 OBP against Hochevar in 26 plate appearances, it’s lock and load time with the star hitting catcher.

Placido Polanco vs. Mark Buehrle: Normally Polanco would be the last guy to pay any attention at all too since all he does is produce singles. Still, you simply cannot overlook his massive career efforts against the Miami lefty. In 41 career at-bats Polanco has, get this, 18 hits leading to a .439 batting average against Buehrle.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Michael Fiers vs. D’backs: He’s looked pretty darn good this season for the Brew Crew with 31 Ks and just five walks over 33.1 innings. That will play in any league. He’s also working on a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention that he has allowed just one run over his last 15.1 innings.

Mat Latos vs. Giants: He gets the weak link of the Giants staff in Barry Zito, and he’s also dominated the club from San Fran in 10 career starts with a 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.

Rick Porcello vs. Tampa Bay: His season has been an uneven one, what else is new, but he’s looked pretty locked in over his last two starts permitting three runs over 13 innings. He’s also going to be facing a club that he ha had success against in three career starts. Over 20 innings Rick P. has 17 Ks and has issued only five free passes leading to a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

CONTESTS

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. DJ has redesigned things to help you navigate the games, and let me tell you, consider me impressed. It looks pretty darn sharp – don’t you think?

By Ray Flowers 

Player Profile: Josh Tomlin

Why am I bothering to write about a guy who had a 4.25 ERA in 2011? How about because he had a WHIP of 1.08 that was 7th in the American League. Yeah, that’s right, Josh Tomlin was an elite option in WHIP last season. Does that make him an elite option in the fantasy game? You already know the answer to that is no, but what if I ask this question – is Tomlin someone you’ll want to target in AL-only leagues in 2012?

Since I already mentioned it, I’ll touch on it briefly. Tomlin had a better WHIP than Michael Pineda (1.10), David Price (1.14) and Jeremy Hellickson (1.15) in the AL, while he posted a better mark than NL hurlers like Tim Hudson (1.14), Zack Greinke (1.20) and Tim Lincecum (1.21). Pretty phenomenal Mr. Tomlin.

The other aspect of Tomlin’s game that was impressive was his ability to chew up innings. Only once in 26 starts did he fail to last five innings, and just three times in 26 starts did he fail to record at least six innings. That’s pretty amazing in this day and age isn’t it?

With that I will end the happy thoughts with Tomlin. You might be saying ‘but Ray, he went 12-7 and surely he should get some love for that right?’ I would respond by saying that’s a strong record certainly helped by the fact that he worked deep into games, but wins and loses are simply not easily projectable, so I don’t pay as much attention to those two categories as others do.

As for his performance, here are my concerns.

(1) His ERA was solid at 4.25, but the big league average in 2011 was 3.94, so clearly his ERA wasn’t that good now was it?

(2) Tomlin just doesn’t strike anyone out. Look at the numbers. I want my starters to have a K/9 mark over six at a minimum (the big league average in 2011 was 7.13). Tomlin posted pathetic 5.30 mark in 2010 before his K/9 fell to 4.84 in 2011. He simply stinks in this category, so badly in fact that it nearly wipes out the positivity of his WHIP success. A starting pitcher who has an upside of 110 Ks if everything breaks right doesn’t excite me, at all.

(3) You cannot expect Tomlin to walk merely 1.14 batters per nine innings like he did in 2011 moving forward. The guy walked 21 batters in 165.1 innings as he cut in half his already impressive BB/9 mark of 2.34 from his rookie season. That 1.14 rate is not sustainable.

(4) Tomlin gets beat around the yard frequently allowing the ball to end up in the seats. After posting a 1.23 HR/9 mark in 2010, that number inched upward to 1.31 in 2011. Tomlin posted a 0.95 GB/FB ratio, well below the big league average of 1.10.

Look, here’s the simple truth.

Tomlin doesn’t strike out enough batters to be “average” in that category.
Tomlin will almost certainly see his walk rate increase in 2012.
Tomlin’s GB/FB rate is sub par.

So if you have a pitcher with those traits, do you really think that he has a chance to produce a 1.08 WHIP on a consistent basis? I have zero faith that he will be as effective in 2012 — think Trevor Cahill and the regression he faced moving from 2010 to 2011 (see his Player Profile). So, will I target Tomlin in an AL-only league? There’s no chance of that happening, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a solid option in that setup though one that has some serious warts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August26, 2011

(1) Giants/Padres deal for Heath Bell doesn’t materialize. Giants left with wounded Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

(2) Johan Santana likely done for year (possibly Jonathan Niese as well). Jose Reyes hopefully back next week.

(3) Indians place Josh Tomlin/Michael Brantley on DL. Shin-Soo Choo hurt. Jim Thome now an Indian.

(4) Curtis Granderson having a historic season for the Yankees.

(5) Travis Snider wrist injury ends his season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 3rd, 2011

(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.

(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.

(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?

(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.

(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.

(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?

(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.

By Ray Flowers

How is This Happening?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve only said it about 1,629 times, and I’ve continued to write about it recently in Bonds, Ruth and Bautista? Sometimes, things occur that defy explanation. I could sit here and spend the next 13 weeks writing a massive compendium of a work detailing how this doesn’t make sense, or how that can’t possibly continue. More times than not I’m going to be right, but of course no one is 100 percent correct, not me, not historical track records, or even the numbers themselves (hello Jose Bautista).

Still, I remain undaunted.

I’m going to hit on a handful of hurlers that I think are pretty much sure bets to regress as the season moves forward. Before I list the actual hurlers I’d suggest you familiarize yourself with my thought process as to why the soon to be mentioned hurlers will be unable to remain on their current paths to greatness.

The easiest way to understand where I’m coming from is to give Which Pitchers Should I Target? a read. In that piece I lay out the basics which, simply put, say to target pitchers with a K/9 rate of 6.50 and a BB/9 mark of 3.30 or lower. Of course pitchers can have success not hitting both of those levels (let me be clear there are always pitchers who succeed without hitting both those targets), especially those that are ground ball hurlers, but it’s a nice general rule to go by when assembling a fantasy rotation. In addition, keep in mind that starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five traditional categories, so even if the guy has a “good” season, if he only strikes out 120 batters he really doesn’t help your squad that much.

With that, here are a handful of pitchers who it would be wise to deal now if you are in a mixed league before their seasons go from great to merely average (some of the names listed should be obvious, but based on the questions I get every day, it doesn’t seem like everyone is in agreement).

Note: xFIP is a measure that normalizes home run rates and tells you what a pitchers actual ERA should be based upon the factors that are in his control.

Nick Blackburn: 3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 3.85 xFIP
Blackburn normally throws strikes, but he simply doesn’t miss any bats. He has offset that issue by inducing a career best 53 percent of batted balls toward the infield grass (career 47 percent). However, he’s giving up more liners than he has the last three years and his walk rate is also a career worst. Get out quick.

Zack Britton: 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.85 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 3.80 xFIP
Doing an even better job than Blackburn inducing grounders (56 percent), this rookie has been terrific. Still, there’s little other than his impressive ground ball rate to really like here. Given that fact, and that even in a best case scenario that the team could limit his innings late in the year, it would be wise to see if someone would give you starter #2 value for a guy who really is a #4 at best.

Jair Jurrjens: 1.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.15 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 2.73 xFIP
You know he isn’t Greg Maddux so a regression is coming. The question is – how much? Here is what I see. He’s got the worst K-rate of his career, more than a full batter below his career mark. His walk rate is fantastic, but this is a guy who has for each of the past four years posted a mark of at least 3.14. Is he really going to cut that in half? His HR/9 rate is half of normal. His left on base percentage is 86 percent. For his career it’s 74.4. He does have a strong 1.59 GB/FB ratio, but that doesn’t make up for everything else.

Kyle Lohse: 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.96 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 3.61 xFIP
Unlike others on this list, Lohse has an extensive history of a decade of major league work. Beyond the obvious, things like never posting an ERA under 3.78 or a WHIP better than 1.27 in any season, are the following points. His K-rate is the 2nd worst of his 11 year career. He’s BB-rate is a full batter below his career mark. His HR/9 mark is literally a third of normal (0.36 compared to 1.11). His BABIP is .080 points below his career rate. His 80 percent LOB mark is 10 percentage points clear of his career rate. Oh, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.29 is only slightly better than his career 1.13 rate. You’re playing with fire if you continue to handle Lohse.

Charlie Morton: 2.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, 3.89 xFIP
He looks like Roy Halladay with his revamped delivery and he has generated a rather amazing 62.5 percent ground ball rate leading to a stupendous 3.43 GB/FB ratio. I don’t think he can keep up that rate, but even if it falls to 2.43 he should be able to have real world success. Still, he’s just not a solid fantasy option in mixed leagues. He never strikes anyone out, walks more batters than the big league average, and though his line drive rate is the same as always, his BABIP is .262, a mere .047 points lower than normal. Oh, and don’t get me started on his 80 percent LOB mark which is only 15 percentage points better than his career rate.

Josh Tomlin: 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.53 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 4.25 xFIP
Unlike others on this list who have had a lot of success because they have kept the ball on the ground, Tomlin has been nothing other than average in that category. In fact, he’s been worse than big league average with a 37 percent ground ball rate leading to a a terrible 0.89 GB/FB mark (the league average is usually about 1.10). So how has he had success? Sheer luck. He rarely misses a bat, and when the ball does hit the wood, he’s been about the luckiest cat on the planet. Though his line drive rate is nearly 22 percent, his BABIP is .175. You remember that the big league averages are 19-20 and .300 right? That means Tomlin is giving up more line drives than average but that he is somehow holding batters to a hit rate that is only 2/3 of normal. There is on way that trend will remain intact the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Surgers

photo © 2011 Richard Eriksson | more info (via: Wylio)

Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink and I had a big time debate yesterday on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. about Jose Bautista. My position was, as you probably expect, that I just don’t understand how he’s doing what he’s doing.  Bautista leads the AL in average (.362), homers (eight), OBP (.522), SLG (.783) and OPS (1.304). How do people not see the utter folly in expecting him to continue along at this pace?

Let’s compare his current pace to his carer best numbers.

Average: .260 (career .247)
OBP: .378 (career .349)
SLG: .617 (career .462)
OPS: .995 (career .810)

Last year was totally ridiculous, you have to see that, but what he is doing this year is insane. I don’t care how he changed his swing, this guy simply isn’t Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. How about some historical perspective. Do you know how many players have back-to-back 50 homer seasons? The answer is five guys – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Babe Ruth. Even the most ardent fans of Bautista know that he doesn’t belong in that group, not even close. Beyond the homers, something everyone is simply missing completely here, is that Bautista has never, not once, hit even .265 in the big leagues. If he were to finish this year hitting .290 (there is no way he will if you ask me), and if he were to have 569 at-bats this year (his total from last year), we’re talking about a guy who will hit .280 the rest of the way. Again, given that he has never hit even .265 in a season, do you really think even that modest projection is likely?

Let me bash Starlin Castro for a moment. Will he one day be a top-5 shortstop? I don’t doubt that at all. Can he do it as a 21 year old this season? Even with his hot start (.350-1-11-17-4) I really question whether it’s possible. I touched on Castro yesterday in my Mailbag Article. To pile on that, his OBP is only .024 points clear of his batting average since he has only four walks, and it’s pretty darn hard to hit well above .300 if you rarely walk. And for those of you looking for a power breakout, it just ain’t gonna happen when you hit 57 percent of your balls on the ground (that number dips somewhat to 52.4 percent in his brief career, but even at that level 10 homers is the best you can expect).

Anyone besides me miss the Geto Boys?

Matt Harrison was bombed on Tuesday night allowing seven runs in just three innings. Obviously he isn’t going to pitch that badly very often, but even with that outing his ratios are still solid (3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Do I think he can keep this up? No I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but when a guy doesn’t strike out six batters per nine, walks more batter than the big league average (3.41 per nine), allows more homers than the big league average (1.14) and has a merely average GB/FB rate (1.29) while pitching in a home ball yard that favors hitters – I get nervous. Speaking of nervous, what in the world was Harrison scared about when he took his team photo this year? Yikes.

Josh Tomlin lovers, it’s all going to come to a crashing halt at some point. Here’s why – he’s nothing more than an average hurler. I know he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but there is no chance, zilch, that he can keep this going (he will not be this years Clay Buchholz). Tomlin’s K/9 rate of 5.00 is below the big league average (7.00), and the same can be said about his K/BB rate (2.14 to 2.10), HR/9 (1.00 to 1.00), and his GB/FB ratio (1.21 to 1.10). Face it everyone, he’s been all smoke and mirrors. His FIP mark tells the truth. Though his ERA is 2.33, FIP says that mark should be 4.26. I don’t know when the bottom will fall out, but it’s bound to happen sooner or later.

By Ray Flowers