Around the Horn: August 11, 2011

(1) Alex Rodriguez to start minor league work Friday – return next week likely.

(2) Dee Gordon to DL – in comes Jamey Carrol.

(3) Rafael Furcal not exactly tearing it up.

(4) Waiver-wire adds, pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake, John Lannan.

(5) Waiver-wire adds, hitters: Will Venable, Jose Constanza, Mike Carp, Juan Rivera, Rick Ankiel.

(6) Dan Uggla up to 31 games with hitting streak.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

photo © 2006 Mark A. Vargas | more info (via: Wylio)

You pull on your trunks, slap on your flip flops and head to the beach. It’s sunny outside so the weather must be wonderful. Why wouldn’t you play hooky? However, you get to the beach, grab your Frisbee and set out for your spot on the sand right next to that hottie wearing the black bikini only to realize that though it’s sunny out there that it’s actually about 63 degrees. Come to think of it, there is also about a 18 mph wind blowing. All of a sudden your day of lotion, sun and relaxation just doesn’t look as promising as it did 35 minutes ago when you left your crib.

The point is this – perception isn’t always reality.

In what follows I’ll point out some situations that I’m sure will blow your mind when you realize what you “thought” was going on may not exactly be what is really going on.

Matt Joyce has floundered so much this season that he is on pace for 11 homers and 57 RBI. Whoopee do. However, did you notice that he is hitting .346 on the year or that he is hitting .419 with a 1.210 OPS over the last two weeks?

Ian Kennedy started the year slowly and that makes you think his effort in 2010 was a bit fluky, right? If you thought that you would have missed out on the fact that over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.

Jed Lowrie is hitting a robust .350 on the year and has been a terrific find thus far (we would all agree). Still, were you aware that over the past two weeks that Lowrie was hitting all of .267 with a .277 OBP in 45 at-bats? Or how about this. Lowrie has no homers and one RBI in his last 10 games. So much for him being the savior, right?

Brad Penny stinks and there is just no need to pay any attention to him. After all, he has seven walks and allowed 12 earned runs over his first two starts of the year. Well, of late he has looked like an All-Star with a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 3.20 K/BB ratio over his last three starts

Juan Rivera is hitting only .212 on the year and has been a massive disappointment for the Jays, right? Not so fast. Rivera is actually hitting pretty well right now with a .317 mark over the past two weeks during which time his OPS has been a strong .905.

Troy Tulowitzki bashed seven homers with 14 RBI in his first 12 games and was looking like the NL MVP. Since then he has gone deep, uh, not a single time in 15 games. He only has three RBI in those 15 contests as well. He’s also hit .225 with a .569 OPS over his last 40 at-bats.

I think you get the point.

We are talking about a handful of at-bats or starts with players, and that just isn’t enough data to paint an accurate portrait in most cases. As humans who have busy lives we’ve learned to draw conclusions based upon the data presented to us. If that snap shot was ‘Troy Tulowitzki is mashing the ball as well as any shortstop in the history of baseball” it’s most likely how you stereotyped him for the 2011 season. Maybe that will end up being the case and you’ll be right, but even with that hot start of his the truth is that over the last two weeks there are 20 shortstops who have have produced more fantasy value. Don’t mistake me here, I’m not saying that I have any doubt in Tulo’s greatness, my point is that it’s a long season and before you go formulating an opinion on players make sure that you have enough data at your disposal to make that call.

Now where is my SPF 30?

By Ray Flowers

The Wednesday Blahs

Wednesday is kind of a blah day. What happened last weekend is nothing but a memory now, and the plans for the coming weekend are still coming into focus. Of course in the world of baseball there is never a break until the season is completed, so I certainly have a lot of things to keep me occupied until I get the chance to get my groove on this weekend.

What’s the deal with Ronnie Belliard? He has hit .319 since joining the Dodgers (47 ABs), and he has hit .321 over his last 50 appearances. That’s pretty phenomenal production for a guy who hit just .184 over his first 51 games.

Eric Byrnes said that he will be playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic this offseason. “I miss playing baseball,” he said. “The past two years, getting 200 (at-bats), that’s not cutting it. If I can make up for some lost at-bats and get down there and play in a real competitive league, it will be beneficial.” Nicknamed “Captain America” by the faithful in the Dominican, this will be the fifth season he has played there. I wish him all the luck in the world because baseball is a better game when Byrnes and his child-like enthusiasm are flying all over the field.

Don’t worry Fausto Carmona owners, the Indians will leave him in the rotation for the rest of the season (Carmona is 3-11 with a 6.58 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP and a 5.57 BBB.9 mark). And to think, there was actually a chance that the Indians could have gone with a pitcher who could have actually given them a chance to win the game. At least they are loyal.

Bartolo Colon was released by the White Sox on Wednesday, and this could signal the end of the road for the one-time ace. Colon averaged 17 victories a year from 1998-2005, but since 2006 he has only been able to stay healthy long enough to make 48 appearances on his way to earning 14 victories. All told, Colon has won 153 games with a 4.10 ERA in a solid major league career, though we are all left to wonder just how well he could have done if he just dropped some weight and took better care of that body of his.

How good has this Josh Johnson kid been? On Wednesday he held the Cardinals to just one run over six innings to improve his record to 15-4 while dropping his ERA to a terrific 3.01. This was the sixth straight outing in which he didn’t go seven innings, but given that only once in that time he has allowed more than three earned runs, he has still given the Marlins a chance to win every time he has taken the hill. He is now 5.2 innings from his first 200-inning season as well.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to pitch well, something the Dodgers desperately need from a starting rotation that includes an injured Clayton Kershaw (out another week after hurting his non-pitching shoulder running into a wall during batting practice) and a struggling Chad Billingsley (an ERA of six in his last four appearances which has led to the team skipping his next turn in the rotation). Kuroda held the Pirates to but one run over six innings on Wednesday, the tenth straight start in which he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. Moreover, over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 2.84.

The Red Sox-Angels game just got underway. Glancing at the starting lineup every single one of the top-8 batters in the Angels’ lineup were hitting at least .287 and Juan Rivera was the only batter below .297 in that group. Do you think the players on the club make fun of Mike Napoli and his .269 average?

The Giants face the Rockies tonight with Matt Cain on the hill, and with a victory the Giants would move to within 1.5 games of the Rocks. Let’s hope it happens so that we can have a wild finish for the NL Wild Card.

Who is your AL home run leader since June 5th? I could give you 45 guesses and I bet you still wouldn’t come up with the right answer so I’m just going to tell you – it’s David Ortiz who has hit 23 homers in that time to lead the Junior Circuit. His last home run, on Tuesday night against the Angels, was his 270th as a DH, the all-time record (passing Frank Thomas).

By Ray Flowers